nostrademons
a day ago
Causality could be reversed here. In markets where technology advances quickly and prices drop, there is very little market for used goods, because why would you buy a 4-year-old whatever when you can get a new one that's twice as good for half the price? You see this in computers, smartphones, TVs, and solar panels (outside of the U.S, where prices are kept artificially high by tariffs). People almost never buy used because there's no reason to. You can just buy new, for the same or lower price, and get something way better.
Instead of threatening to derail the EV transition, lack of resale value might be evidence of the EV transition, particularly when coupled with quickly growing overall sales of EVs globally.
bunderbunder
a day ago
> You can just buy new, for the same or lower price
But, like the article says, new EVs are selling for about twice as much as a 2-year-old used vehicle of the same make and model. That's a very very far cry from "same or lower price".
array_key_first
20 hours ago
Its a matter of perspective.
EV are progressing fast so they lose value quick, like a laptop of the late 90s. Not quite as bad, but in those times, your computer was worth next to nothing in less than a year.
ICE are stagnant. They retain their value because they're not improving at all.
labcomputer
18 hours ago
> EV are progressing fast so they lose value quick,
Are they really, though?
A 2021 Model 3, Mach-e, Polestar 2, Model Y, F-150 Lightning, e-Tron, or ID.4 (to name just a few) are not too different from the ones sold today. Aside from software updates and minor refinements (mostly DFM), I don't see much progress. That's not a problem, since they're all competent vehicles for single-car households.
Several 2025/26 models have even been de-contented compared to their 2021 selves.
Trying to steel-man your argument a little, the only models I can think of with significant progress are the bZ4X/Solterra (widely panned due to initially uncompetitive specs and pricing), Leaf (which has been getting small, incremental improvements for more than a decade) and the now-discontinued Bolt (which was the cheapest road-tripable EV).
I think you really have to be looking compliance cars that entered the market before the Model 3 and/or models that were acknowledged as uncompetitive when new to find significant/fast progress.
No, the real problem is that the true market-clearing price for most of these vehicles was $7500-$10000 less than MSRP (which was set knowing the regulatory environment), combined with the false calculation of depreciation based on MSRP instead of market price.
AnthonyMouse
18 hours ago
> No, the real problem is that the true market-clearing price for most of these vehicles was $7500-$10000 less than MSRP (which was set knowing the regulatory environment), combined with the false calculation of depreciation based on MSRP instead of market price.
This seems like it. If you paid $29,000 for something with a $36,500 MSRP because of a $7500 credit and a few years later it's worth $22,000, the amount of depreciation you're calculating by starting from MSRP and the amount that the buyer actually experienced are off by more than a factor of two.
Meanwhile the credits caused more new sales than there would have been otherwise, which means more cars of that model available in the used market, and supply and demand is still a thing.
It's not evidence that people don't want them, it's evidence that if you subsidize something the price comes down.
consp
7 hours ago
Don't know about the us but all models mentioned were well over 50k (most nearing 75k+) with incentives where I live and thus fall in the top 1% income bracket range. And expensive mass produced cars lose value faster than cheaper models as they have to be sold second hand to the next lower income bracket which is an exponential curve hence the high dropoff. This used to be the same for ice cars.
Of course both can be true as well.
bigiain
13 hours ago
I wonder if COVID distorted the market enough to show up here?
I have anecdotes of friends/family/coworkers who bought cars (or second cars for the household) to avoid public transport.
And 2nd hand prices for cars gere (Australia) went batshit insane for a while during and as we chose to pretend that COVID was over - and those artificially inflated prices are mostly over now.
harvey9
8 hours ago
Not just the extra demand from people avoiding public transport but supply chain disruption caused by COVID affected the supply of new cars (and spare parts), so people who wanted a new car were now considering new-ish cars.
refactor_master
7 hours ago
I have colleagues who bought new EVs and made money selling them one year later, because the market was so wild back then. For a while you could still add some deductions here, some credit there, sell an old car and “girl math” your way to a “free car”. Now people are surprised pikachu when the bubble has burst.
CrazyStat
3 minutes ago
Not just EVs, the entire car market was insane. A friend of mine sold his minivan for $10k over what he had bought it for a year or two before.
ricardobeat
17 hours ago
Oh, you're in for a surprise. An ID.7, the updated Model 3, Ford Explorer/Capri, plus all the ones you don't have in the US - Nio, Zeekr, BYD, Renault, Skoda, Volvo, Cupra - are significantly better than the EVs of five years ago.
otterley
16 hours ago
In what way? Specifically, in what way compared to a Tesla from 5 years ago? (Most other makes were not great 5 years ago.)
benjiro
15 hours ago
Not the person you asked the question but i can answer this partially.
I see from the EV my parents bought, they got for 22k euro, a car that does 240km on paper. Now a few years later, you can buy a BYD for 26k, that does 450km (ext version) on paper. That same BYD is WAY more fancy, tech gadgets etc...
But that is comparing a lower market segment where this effect is stronger.
On the higher end market, where the Tesla's used to dominate, we see less movement as those cars already came with tons of tech, and large batteries.
Thing is, i am still not buying a EV despite them being better. The same arguments we had with EV disadvantages is still present today. I rather buy a second hand gasoline engine simply because of the convenience of the default 600 a 700km range on most vehicles, the 5 minute tank job, the lack of charging in the city, the prices despite the heavier depreciation in the second hand market are still worse.
Ironically the gasoline car we bought 10 years ago, for 7.5k, still sells today for 8k in todays market (added 50k kms on the car). So even if we take a cut, the actual gasoline engine depreciation is strangely less strong. I track several gasoline cars where i had a interest in from years ago, same phenomenon.
For some reason you expect gasoline cars to drop more in pricing because now in EU 17% of new cars sales are EVs and 36% are hybrid. So more gasoline cars on second hand market? No ... because people are also buying less cars because of the economy, more work from home etc. Resulting in actually less second hand cars as people hold on to their vehicles longer, waiting out this transition periode.
tw04
14 hours ago
> Now a few years later, you can buy a BYD for 26k, that does 450km (ext version) on paper. That same BYD is WAY more fancy, tech gadgets etc...
Right, because the other $26k is being subsidized by the party. And much like the US found out with rare earths: once China has the market cornered, the price will rise and/or they’ll use access to their goods as a tool of war.
They’re playing the long game and western nations seem unable or unwilling to do the same.
adrianN
13 hours ago
That might be true, but it doesn’t matter for the buying decision of the individual consumer.
BobbyTables2
11 hours ago
It will matter a lot if (replacement) battery prices skyrocket…
dvfjsdhgfv
5 hours ago
Most individual buyers are unable or not willing to take global perspectives into account, otherwise Japanese cars would never make impact on the American market for example. You need people in power to make informed decisions, and even then you risk the only result will be people getting very angry that politician mess up with the market.
saxenaabhi
5 hours ago
There are/were plenty of subsidies on EV cars in US/EU.
Also chinese companies innovate better and have more efficient supply chains that western ones.
The push to ban chinese automakers is stupid because it punishes customers at the benefit of automakers. Crony Capitalism at its worse.
edm0nd
4 hours ago
>Also chinese companies innovate better and have more efficient supply chains that western ones.
Yeah because they just steal and copy everything from Western companies and others worldwide. Why spend hundreds of millions and 10 years doing R&D when you can just hack in and steal it? It's the Chinese way.
Chinese hackers took trillions in intellectual property from about 30 multinational companies
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-hackers-took-trillions-...
The annual cost to the U.S. economy of counterfeit goods, pirated software, and theft of trade secrets is between $225 billion and $600 billion.
China is the world’s principal infringer of intellectual property, and it uses its laws and regulations to put foreign companies at a disadvantage and its own companies at an advantage.
- https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/china-exec-summary-risk-...
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_intellectual_pr...
Salt Typhoon is an advanced persistent threat actor believed to be operated by China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) which has conducted high-profile cyber espionage campaigns, particularly against the United States.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_Typhoon
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aurora
Industrial espionage: How China sneaks out America's technology secrets
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64206950
etc etc etc
saxenaabhi
3 hours ago
Yes GM is lagging behind BYD not because it's leadership and managerial culture but because "chinese copy".
And the solution is to punish consumers and enrich GM's totally failed leadership and irrational shareholders by throttling competition chinese.
Here in europe cars have become so expensive compared to just 10y ago.
Some of it is because of stupid green policies, but most if because EU carmakers have been successful in reducing the competitive pressure from China by the use of tariffs on chinese firms.
ricardobeat
2 hours ago
Even if that was true in the past, it has been many years since companies in China can actually do a better job at design than their western counterparts. And engineering, and manufacturing.
They also hired a ton of european designers for their house brands. They have no need to copy anything.
Yes, the west let this happen, and it’s too late to cry about it, action needs to start happening (and I don’t mean import barriers or a trade war) if we don’t want to be dependent.
7952
3 hours ago
At this point IP seems to be less of a moat to competition than manufacturing ability. And that is what America and other western countries gave up on. It is easier to focus on branding and profit margins than the fine points of high volume production.
aftbit
12 hours ago
>the lack of charging in the city
This would be the killer for me. I have a private garage with plugs, and even at 120V, I can out-charge my typical driving needs. I work from home and only occasionally take trips beyond a few miles, with a few longer road trips a year.
My IONIQ 5 (USA) does 300 miles (480 km) on paper, but in practice, I've seen a fair bit less. That said, it does charge up 20->80% in under 20 minutes at a fast charger.
wafflemaker
6 hours ago
Disclaimer: never owned a car, no driving licence. Also talking about Norway with generally good charger infrastructure.
Was on a road trip last summer, around Norway, in VW id.Buzz. Charging time of 5min vs 20min doesn't matter. When you're on that long trip, you need time to eat, go to bathroom, walk a little so your legs/back doesn't hurt. In the whole trip there was maybe one forced trip to a shop, because we had time to burn (the only charger was too slow and needed a whole hour to charge).
OTOH have a friend with first gen Leaf and his max charging speed is pretty slow. He additionally can't charge at home and this makes the slow charging time a little off a nuisance.
vladvasiliu
3 hours ago
I hear Norway has good charging infrastructure. Here in France, on highways, there are usually chargers at gas stations, with spots available (don't know the specifics; I don't own an EV). However, it should be noted that I avoid driving during very busy days, so I can't comment on what happens in that situation, especially since traffic would reduce an EV's range.
However, where I live in Paris, there are three parking spots with chargers available around my apartment. Some apartment buildings have underground parking, for which I understand there's a push to set up charging infrastructure, but many buildings do not. Mine doesn't. If I had an EV I'd have to wait around for one of the three places to free up, wait for the battery to charge, then go move the car to a different spot.
Now, I don't particularly need a car, which is why I don't own one, but for my use case, an EV would be an all-around hassle to keep charged. I also mainly use vehicles to go on trips to remote places—I very rarely take highways. Hell, a few years ago I was in the mountains, and gas stations were so far apart that I was running on reserve when I got to one.
I'm not against EVs, and it's clear there are many situations where they're great. But I think we're still in a transition period with plenty of situations that aren't covered yet.
adamdoran
3 hours ago
> especially since traffic would reduce an EV's range.
Very much a misconception; unlike in an ICE, you're not consuming energy idling in traffic, in fact your efficiency tends to go up with the lower speeds in traffic.
yakshaving_jgt
4 hours ago
> Charging time of 5min vs 20min doesn't matter.
I think that’s only true if chargers are sitting idle. Otherwise you’re waiting longer in a queue before you can begin charging, and this delay compounds.
hvb2
8 hours ago
A lot of new cars in western Europe are bought as company cars or leased by a company.
Companies never buy used, so I think a lot of those sales are from buyers who wouldn't consider used. So those buyers are only now starting to create supply in the second hand market
darkwater
8 hours ago
Tesla is a bad example here because it was the best by a large margin 5 years ago, and it more or less stagnated (especially in markets where FSD is not available). But - at least in Europe - the cheapest Tesla you could buy 5 years ago was over 50 grands, now you can have one for 35k with no subsides, depending on the market.
This alone has a giant effect on the second-hand market (of Tesla, which again was the dominant brand years ago so it's also the dominant second-hand brand)
bryanrasmussen
8 hours ago
I thought nobody wanted Teslas in EU because of Elon Musk? I wouldn't expect it to be the dominant second-hand brand.
darkwater
5 hours ago
That drove down new cars sales in a few countries indeed. Also there are viable alternatives for new buyer's (although Tesla is still probably the best value for money). But the second-hand market is different and if you want a second-hand EV that you can actually use for long trips, Tesla is the only option.
Yes, there are people traveling with Kona or Leaf but personally I would not do it.
mirekrusin
6 hours ago
There are a lot of them on the roads in Europe.
wafflemaker
6 hours ago
Tesla is still the cool geek car. And geeks care more about tech and gadgets than politics.
SideburnsOfDoom
5 hours ago
There are still lots of Teslas on the roads where I am, relative to to other EVs. Cars are big expensive assets, they don't vanish, usually. Even if you now regret the purchase, you may be stuck with it for a few years.
For any given brand, the number of vehicles on the road isn't a function of the brand's popularity this quarter. Its the sum of popularities over the last decade or more. So, loss of reputation takes a long time to feed through. And people wanting to unload them won't make them less prevalent on second-hand markets, quite the opposite.
But also, the % of EVs that I see that are Teslas is slowly declining, as other brands proliferate and the EV market gets larger.
keybored
2 hours ago
People think that people generalize with political labels because they say things like “liberals are not buying Tesla’s because of Trump”. But when it comes to the EU they just say that everyone acts like the same kind of person.
chrneu
11 hours ago
Most EVs are basically high end luxury tech mobiles now. What ICE manus charge $5k in their tech package is basically standard across most EVs nowadays. It's insane the amount of bells/whistles cheap EVs come standard with now.
WarOnPrivacy
10 hours ago
> Most EVs are basically high end luxury tech mobiles now.
I am fairly baffled when I come across positive vibes for modern cars. I'm not declaring those vibes wrong.
I'm saying I don't understand the lack of angst and resentment for
what vehicle owners have lost (full ownership - what they've
bought can no longer be assumed to be theirs. features and
operations can be [and are!] stolen by manufacturers.
whole vehicles have been effectively stolen when
a manufacturer declares a vehicle is no longer operational
[because something something violation].
other things owners have lost: safe tactile controls,
non-extortionate repair costs - which insurance companies
will pass on to every policy holder they can)
how drivers are mistreated by manufacturers (relentless surveillance,
driving data collected to exploit owners and empower other entities
[ex:insurance] to financially or otherwise mistreat them
- inc deeply personal data like mental health and other
personal trips. nothing is off the table.)
how drivers are forced to mistreat everyone around them (continually
blinding drivers, bicyclists and pedestrians.
continually robbing other drivers of critical distance visibility.
leaving inches on both sides of their parked car for passengers in
adjacent cars to exit)
how they are forced to be less-safe drivers (forcing eyes away from the
road to make routine adjustments to climate, etc - adjustments that
for generations were trivially done by touch)
bfdm
5 minutes ago
This is why we need to pass right to repair (or modify) legislation , return control over your own belongings.
This must supersede any TPM/copyright restrictions or other encumbrances.
pinkgolem
9 hours ago
Let's have a look at the standard range.
2021 Tesla is on the Intel processor, so the software runs laggy and is missing some updates.
It would likely have the heatpump which was introduced 2020 but some markets only got it 2021 if I remember correctly.
You are also missing on cooled seats, have worse noise isolation & worse dampers, no lfp Batterie, 130km less range and so on
HWR_14
16 hours ago
What makes them better?
nostrademons
18 hours ago
Presumably you’re in the US, given the models you list. Don’t look there, because the best EVs are not available in the U.S. because of trade barriers. Look at what BYD and Toyota are doing in China.
fnordpiglet
17 hours ago
How does that impact depreciation in the US?
nostrademons
17 hours ago
The article here is about rental car fleets, and explicitly states that consumers (and particularly Teslas) are not seeing the same depreciation. Rental car fleets often buy EVs that are available on the global market (eg Kia or Hyundai models) and sell back into that global market.
meindnoch
16 hours ago
Ok, I'll bite: what are BYD and Toyota doing in China?
SapporoChris
14 hours ago
LeFantome
12 hours ago
Electric vehicles are improving at the rate that batteries are improving. That is faster than you may think.
If you look just at Teslas, they go further and charge faster on smaller batteries (higher energy densities). These batteries cost less and will last far longer. And Tesla uses an older battery tech than Chinese companies use so, in fact, batteries have improved far more. And with sodium ion, there is about to be a massive improvement over the next few years.
vannevar
13 hours ago
>Are they really, though?
Yes, if you look beyond progress within a specific model line. For instance, there is a marked difference between the range and towing capacity of a 2023 Chevrolet Silverado EV and the Ford Lightning. The Kia EV9 offered a substantial price advantage over existing 3-row EVs when it was introduced in 2023. I think you're right that actual pricing vs MSRP is probably the biggest factor, but real and rapid improvement in the products also contributes. I know I've put off buying an EV van because I know that better options will be coming within the next 18 months.
Empact
8 hours ago
Personally I chose a new over a used Model Y this year because the Juniper release includes a new front bumper camera which could prove crucial in certain unlikely scenarios, and improve overall self-driving. It’s important enough that there are rumors they’ll offer the option of retrofitting it onto earlier versions: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-to-identify-your-model-y-...
Also HW4 likely unlocks significant self-driving performance that the earlier hardware stack cannot accommodate, and will support features that are yet to be released for a longer period of time.
Which is all to say: looks to me that the progress is significant.
hvb2
8 hours ago
> Which is all to say: looks to me that the progress is significant.
Assuming you care about self driving enough. That's a big premium to pay for that alone. Fine if that works for you but I can't imagine that being a reason for many.
Getting a new battery or newer design battery is probably much more of a driving factor
brightball
16 hours ago
I can’t speak for the rest, but I believe in 2023 Tesla’s all moved from HW3 to HW4.
I went from a 2020 Model 3 to a 2025 and the self driving experience is dramatically better. I’m one of those “I will never use FSD” people and I honestly love driving…but it’s so good I find myself using it constantly and just being awestruck.
tartoran
18 hours ago
I'm sure for newer EV models makers cut down on production costs but they may also cut down on quality as well.
croes
6 hours ago
Does real progress matter? What about the perception of progress?
Cars don’t need to be better, customers only need to think so.
Just look at the smartphone market.
jacobgkau
16 hours ago
> in those times, your computer was worth next to nothing in less than a year.
> ICE are stagnant. They retain their value because they're not improving at all.
This doesn't make sense. As already pointed out, the reason computers lose value is because the same money can buy something that does the job better (faster, lighter, etc). ICE don't retain value because they're not improving; they retain value because they still do the same job X years later.
EVs, meanwhile, are losing value even though the same money as a used EV can't buy anything that actually does the job better, as pointed out earlier in the thread. So there must be something else in play (such as battery degradation lowering value of EVs quicker than engine wear & tear lowers value of ICEs).
LeFantome
12 hours ago
There is a lot of fear around battery degradation. People don not like EVs that have come off warranty.
So, while the batteries may last 800,000 km, people start to discount the replacement cost before they even hit 200,000 km.
Consumers do not have even experience yet to value used EVs properly. It is a great time to be a used EV buyer.
nostrademons
13 hours ago
ICE and EV are two market segments. They are partially substitutable, but for many ICE customers an EV is a non-starter because of charging infrastructure, which means that if one of those customers needs to replace their ICE vehicle, they need to replace it with another ICE vehicle, and cannot take advantage of price drops in new EVs. (I ran into this personally; I wanted to get an EV, but my garage does not have a charger, none of the circuits near it could support a charger, and so I need to rewire my house and get a main panel upgrade to do more than L1 charging.)
Likewise US and rest-of-world are different markets because of trade barriers.
Within the EV market segment, the resale value may be plummeting because new car prices are declining because of improved technology and higher volume. Someone who is replacing their EV or looking for a new one already has the required charging infrastructure, otherwise they wouldn't be looking. But this price drop affects only other EV buyers, because ICE buyers cannot take advantage of it.
This insulation lasts only as long as the price differential between them remains less than the capital costs of getting a L2 charger and associated electrical upgrades.
7952
2 hours ago
And there are a lot of other less rational reasons why people don't want to buy a standard electric car or a standard ice pick up truck.
Why is charging at slow speed at home such an issue for you?
bigiain
14 hours ago
At some stage, "improvements" become nothing more than marketing buzzwords.
I'd argue one reason ICE are "stagnant" are because they're "good enough" and any potential improvements required expensive R&D and manufacturing changes, for results that purchasers won't change their buying decision for. Maybe Toyata could make an ICE for the Camry that was 5% more efficient, but few people who were about to buy someone else's equivalent car will choose a Camry instead based on such a marginal improvement.
I think phones are a good current example of this. I have felt zero need to upgrade from my iPhone 13, because the "improvements" since it was new are of zero interest or value to me. I'm quite likely to do a battery replacement on this one instead of upgrading to a new iPhone any time soon. (And the only reason I bought the iPhone13 was to get the backside lidar, I was perfectly happy with the XR I used before that.)
SideburnsOfDoom
6 hours ago
Isn't that a different way of saying the same thing?
There's no denying that ICE Engines have been around for a long time, relative to EVs. A mature technology means that any low-hanging fruit for performance improvements was found a long time ago. Remaining gains require the expensive R&D for marginal improvements that you mention.
It's not that they're "good enough" - any consumer who can do the sums would prefer a 20% better price/performance, always. It's just that such improvements are not there to be had in ICE vehicles. There is no rush to improve them, as you said.
And therefor the performance of a new ICE vehicle, 5 year old vehicle or 10 year old vehicle is well-understood, predictable. Both in terms of what the tech was when it was built, and how it has aged. EVs are less so in both of these dimensions. e.g. I would have reasonable confidence in the durability of an EV battery for a 2025 model, but much less so for a 2015 model. They're just not the same.
johnebgd
20 hours ago
Most people don’t want to lose tens of thousands of dollars in value to progress for progress sake… I just bought a car and went ICE in no small part to resale value.
forgotoldacc
14 hours ago
I feel like this shows a change in mindset these past couple decades.
More and more people buy things for the purpose of reselling them. Houses are now more investments than places to actually live in. Rubbing alcohol was bought up during Covid so people could resell. Cryptocurrency is bought with the goal of selling for double a few months later and nobody really believes in the "currency" aspect of it. Pokémon cards, originally made for kids and to play in a card game, are now all scooped up by cart load by adults so they can resell them on eBay, and those buyers hope to resell later. The 2020s has people trying to sell used cars for equal or more than their new value. Strange times.
7952
2 hours ago
But the overwhelming trend is the exact opposite of that. Maybe what you see is more a minority counter culture. It offers more feelings of control when people are still a couple of missed cheques away from bankruptcy.
tmtvl
4 hours ago
Just pulling this from thin air, but it may be the combination of rising costs of living + lack of options which were available in the bad old days (subsistence farming, sending children to work (although some idiots are advocating for letting that happen again), highway robbery,...).
quickthrowman
an hour ago
> The 2020s has people trying to sell used cars for equal or more than their new value. Strange times.
Not wanting to eat 50% of a car’s value in depreciation in 2-3 years is a sane decision.
Expecting to sell a used car for a profit without a shortage of used cars is not sane.
I bought a Toyota RAV4 in 2021 and it’s depreciated about 20-25% in 4 years. I could’ve saved a couple thousand bucks and got a Nissan Rogue instead, but that model has depreciated about 50% by now, and I’d be worse off.
yellowapple
19 hours ago
Meanwhile, I don't really care much about resale value because when I buy a car I typically intend to drive it until it dies.
In this sense, EVs depreciating faster than ICEVs is exciting, since if my current Tacoma prematurely gives up the ghost (or I buy a second car) I can add “snag an EV for cheap” to my list of available options.
yibg
18 hours ago
That's still depreciation, just deprecation until it dies (down to near $0 value from new) vs depreciation until you sell it. If it dies fast, the depreciation is still high.
hdgvhicv
7 hours ago
How many years/miles does the average new ev last and how much does it cost to own/operate for that time.
How many years/miles does the average new ice cost and how much does it cost to own/operate.
I tend to buy the bottom of the market. My last cost £1100 and has lasted 3 years/9k miles so far and seems reasonable.
I didn’t buy electric because they are far more expensive. That’s seems to be at odds with the claim they deprecate more.
There are 57 electric cars under 3k for sale and 30,000 petrol ones on auto trader.
At any price the ratio is about 10:1 rather than 600:1.
Second hand EVs are more expensive than second hand petrol cars.
skeeter2020
2 hours ago
Your arbitrary choice of a $3K price ceiling is skewing your interpretation of the data; cars at this price point are essentially scrap. Also, cars don't just get "used up", they get very expensive to maintain and keep operational. You might be able to find an ICE car in your price range that has a lot of things wrong with it but you can keep it going with the minimum, while for EVs basic operation is dependent on only a few, very expensive systems.
scotty79
17 hours ago
Yeah, but it doesn't die fast. Re-sale value is low because of the competition from newer models due to rapidly developing tech.
7952
2 hours ago
A lot of people clearly are willing to spend lots of money for irrational reasons in cars. I
scotty79
17 hours ago
If you don't resale you don't lose anything.
Just drive it till it's no longer operational or gift it away to a family member at some point and you get full value of what you paid for without a care in the world about second hand market.
skeeter2020
2 hours ago
Cars don't just "stop working" with no residual value, so this isn't how it works. They start to require very expensive repairs and maintenance and it gets tough to determine what you should get done. And why would you give a family member a car that's giving you problems and not good enough for you? "Here, take this EV that's likely to require repairs costing 10x the value of the car."
marssaxman
13 hours ago
I care about the second hand market because that's where I'm going to get the car - the phenomenon of rapidly depreciating electric vehicles is all to the good for me! Resale value, though, is not something I care about at all.
hcknwscommenter
20 hours ago
Aside from battery longevity is there really anything better about a new model S compared to a 5 year old model?
array_key_first
19 hours ago
Battery technology in general.
And, Tesla is an outlier here. Other EVs are progressing MUCH faster.
bdangubic
18 hours ago
that is a bold statement that needs to be backed by an example... while Tesla is certainly the dinosaur with the most outdated lineup of cars others aren't that much better (unless we venture into super-luxury 6-figure price zone...)
array_key_first
15 hours ago
Look at almost* any other manufacturer.
Kia and BYD are two prominent examples. They're outputting huge batteries and absolutely bonkers charging times.
But even US manufacturers have surpassed Tesla. What GM is doing is more impressive.
supportengineer
19 hours ago
I have a 5 year old Model S and it's still like new. And it has a wheel instead of a yolk.
The problems with used cars are usually:
1. The previous owner abused the car
2. There is known damage which is being kept hidden from you
bunderbunder
18 hours ago
And those might be particularly poignant problems for used EVs because EVs are notoriously expensive to repair.
fnordpiglet
17 hours ago
The GPU, sensors, trim, motors, and batteries have improved in those 5 years. I have a 2020 X and I am considering when to update. While the S and X haven’t gotten a significant improvement like the 3 and Y have they are still substantially better than before. Despite the memes I’ve consistently tried the other options, and have tried the BYD, Zyker, MG, etc available in Asia, and the Tesla are still far and away the best cars especially if you consider them in combination with the supercharger network. I think they have slowed their pace of improvement surely through a lot of Musks self inflicted fault, but the competition hasn’t yet surpassed them.
For those boosting BYD, etc, the finish is shiny but low quality, and is rife with safety red flags - an example being by in large you can watch YouTube and movies and sturr on the central screen while driving. (It’s scary in Asia with grab drivers watching videos while weaving in and out of traffic) - but the price is good.
aj_icracked
16 hours ago
I have a 2020 model X as well and I love it. I have no plans on upgrading which oddly is because it doesn't have the interior review mirror cam for FSD to yell at me for silly things like looking at a passenger to talk while on FSD and it still drives like it did on day 1 (60k miles ago, have only done tires and minor warranty calls). Honestly a fantastic car and now that it's paid off I'm like yep I'll keep this for years more. Keep the car it's great!
Actually to edit this comment - the main (only?) reason I bought the car is because if I'm in an accident I want to try to be in safest car possible and if my sig other is driving I want them to be in the safest car I can find. I thought that paying a premium at release in model X 2020 was well worth the premium if people I love are in it.
fnordpiglet
10 hours ago
Yeah this is literally exactly my experience as well. Best car I’ve ever driven and I’ve considered replacing with a twice as expensive Mercedes. The mirror camera is also the primary reason I don’t upgrade - I used FSD extensively in my commute and when I use FSD on newer models it’s obnoxious I can’t even change a song without it freaking out.
I also bought it for the safety. Even the FSD I consider a substantial safety feature. I don’t take naps in the back seat when it’s ok - I pay attention. The joint probability of it or me noticing a drifting car or whatever is considerably better than me alone.
gambiting
18 hours ago
I can't tell you about Tesla, but BMW for example did shoot themselves right in the foot by announcing literally at the launch of the iX that they are going to bring a new model with updated 800V architecture within couple years. So........why would you buy that first one, knowing that a much improved model is literally right around the corner. Consequently prices of the iX cratered, and you could have it on a lease for the same cost as a VW golf, despite being (at least in theory) 3x more expensive. The first gen cars are now so laughably cheap it's actually stupid to not buy one because they are still perfectly good very capable vehicles - but yeah, why would it keep value if it was immediately replaced by a much better model. With EVs we're in the GPU area where each model immediately displaces the last generation and within few years your top of the line flagship card is worth close to nothing.
bestnameever
12 hours ago
How are EV's progressing fast?
p1dda
4 hours ago
You seem oblivious to just how mature the tech is for petrol and diesel so you shouldn't say anything about them really.
znpy
20 hours ago
> ICE are stagnant. They retain their value because they're not improving at all.
They aren't degrading either, though
theothertimcook
19 hours ago
They are definitely degrading.
Complex driver aid/“safety” systems, outrageously complicated “infotainment” systems that are also used to interact with system functions, sealed/un-serviceable transmissions, exhaust gas filtration and recirculating systems, these are all additional points of failure that represent a degradation on modern ICE cars.
These cars won’t be around 20 years after manufacture in the same way Toyota Camry and Corolla are.
jlarocco
16 hours ago
Those complaints are really orthogonal to the EV vs ICE debate, though.
Somebody could claim driver aids and infotainment EVs are "degrading" in EVs in the exact same way - in fact they're even more integrated in EVs.
And although EVs don't have the same transmissions and exhaust gas systems, they have their own unique complexities and points of failure, like batteries and regenerative braking systems.
theothertimcook
8 hours ago
100% all of the advantages of bulletproof electronic motor are smashed by reliance on finicky little software systems
Consultant32452
18 hours ago
I recently bought a fancy muscle car with all that crap integrated into the infotainment system. I explained to the sales guy that I WANTED to keep this car for the rest of my life but was concerned that wouldn't be possible. In 10 years it may literally be impossible to find a phone that will connect via the USB/bluetooth to the infotainment system. We may all be using something completely different. Not to mention, no one will be manufacturing replacements for that infotainment system if it ever craps out.
You can go buy a 50 year old muscle car and upgrade the radio to something kind of modern. But that won't be possible with my car 50 years from now. It's too integrated.
The sales guy had clearly never considered this issue before.
jacobgkau
16 hours ago
It seems like he didn't need to consider it, since you bought it anyway.
rlpb
13 hours ago
> The sales guy had clearly never considered this issue before.
This seems to happen far too often. I've come to the conclusion that salespeople pretend this is the case on purpose, since it benefits them for you to believe that you're the exception.
theothertimcook
8 hours ago
Depending on how mainstream and popular it is, china may come to the rescue. They’ve made some really cool drop in replacements for oem systems.
jlarocco
16 hours ago
I wonder how long it will be before the first EVs get bricked because the manufacturer doesn't want to ship software updates to the old hardware any more.
If it can happen to a $1500 phone or a $5k computer, I'm sure it will happen to a $20k car eventually.
theothertimcook
8 hours ago
I think it’s already happened with some teslas banned from charging stations and being gimped after sale for whatever reason.
Apparently a bunch of jeeps got bricked by a pop software update.
gautamcgoel
10 hours ago
Which car + how do you like it?
Consultant32452
9 hours ago
2022 challenger srt hellcat redeye. I absolutely love it.
hdgvhicv
7 hours ago
Well they are, it’s a common complaint about modern cars.
https://roadwarriornews.com/autoenshittification-allows-car-...
rasz
17 hours ago
10 years is when you really should do a heavy refresh in the engine bay. Stem the tide of oil leaks, replace perished rubber hoses, tuneup (plugs & leads) because lets be honest you never replaced those unless one was obviously broken, fix exhaust leaks, pray cat is not dead and you didnt luck out on a model with factory defects like for example Ford EcoBoost wet belt disintegrating into rubber debris in oil pickup ($10K job). Tons of brands went for lower tension piston rings in the name of ecology and gas mileage, GM EcoTec, Stellantis Tigershark, even Toyotas end up burning oil like crazy and need full engine rebuilds/new engines. Obligatory they stopped making them like they used to :) 10 years is a very dangerous age for a used car right now.
ICE cars are practically falling apart between service windows when compared to EV.
Amezarak
15 hours ago
This is not normal. I have a 10 year old budget ICE car and nothing is wrong with it. When I change the oil every 10k miles, the same amount I put in still comes out. It has about 240k.
rasz
9 hours ago
This is the new normal, you just got lucky. For example someone in the comments mentioned his 03 Pontiac Vibe GT - he also got super lucky. Non GT Vibes were powered by factory defective 1ZZFE.
echelon
13 hours ago
My ICE SUV has nearly 200,000 miles on it and is worth almost the exact same as when I bought it ten years ago. FJ Cruisers are popular.
There's no way I'm buying an EV. I can't charge it where I live, it won't easily refuel where I'm going, and I hate infotainment centers over knobs and buttons.
If I do buy a new car - and I really don't have to - it'll be an ICE without an annoying screen in the middle console.
stackedinserter
20 hours ago
But 10 year old ICE is still a perfectly good car, yet 10 year old Tesla is trash. Not because there's a better Tesla now, but because it's no repairable and will soon require a new $20k battery.
btilly
19 hours ago
Funny. My Tesla has proven itself to be repairable. And has needed fewer repairs than my ICE car. As for the "will soon require", as https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-ba... verifies, at 200,000 miles a Tesla still averages being able to hold 90% of original charge. The average ICE car does not survive to 200,000 miles.
While some do need batteries sooner, some ICE cars need new engines sooner. It's a wash. Average lifespan is comparable.
(Electric would win hands down if Tesla had better manufacturing quality though.)
throwawaylaptop
19 hours ago
The reason the average ice car doesn't last 200k miles is because car purchases are amazingly irrational. Other than a few unlucky models, basically any Toyota or Honda will go over 200k miles. I own two 250k mile Toyota/Lexus vehicles and expect another 100k from them easily. But people buy Dodge sedans and vans, jaguars and range rovers, Audis and Kias.... Because they basically don't care for getting 200k miles. Realistically if you buy a ice car that is known for lasting 200k, it will easily do it.
hibikir
18 hours ago
I thought the main issue, ICE or not, was that a low energy crash after 10 years makes it a total loss, insurance wise. So drive enough miles in, say, a random US urban highway/stroad environment and you'll find yourself having to change cars regardless.
It's a bigger problem with a Tesla, as there is no sensibly priced repair network, and getting original parts has lead times that will lead to replacing the car.
throwawaylaptop
15 hours ago
I suppose, but most people don't crash their cars that often. If they did, insurance would basically be unaffordable for most people just based on statistics of how much they'd have to pay out. No one in my family has had a major crash in 25 years.. most people I know haven't. Like all other things, I think it's a pretty skewed distribution. I dated a girl once that got rear-ended several times by age 30... You can tell something about her driving from that. Her record will show she's not at fault ever and gets good rates, but she causes accidents.
throwawaylaptop
15 hours ago
Those cars are often bought and fixed and sold on the market. Others go for parts to keep the rest on the roads.
montyboy_us
7 hours ago
In my adult life I’ve owned four cars, three of them Honda Accords. Each Accord had around 85-100k miles when I bought them, and I’ve driven each well past 200k miles with no major issues. These cars are built to last if you maintain them. 1996, 2004, 2014 (Current) with 188k miles. Best advice, by 3 year old Toyotas/Hondas off-lease and then don't think about a vehicle again for 8-10 years. I buy mine a bit older, but next time ...
AnthonyMouse
18 hours ago
It doesn't even have to be particularly known for it. The cars you're listing are the ones well known for not doing it. You can pretty easily get 200k miles out of the median Chevy.
throwawaylaptop
15 hours ago
I agree. I've had a 300k mile Silverado and currently own a 210k mile Volt. The thing that's basically hanging over the Volts head is a battery problem you almost can't even test for. The gas motor is doing just great.
com2kid
14 hours ago
A 2012 Kia Soul will last until 200k miles. In the 2010s Kia used some good engines, with a couple notable exceptions (the highest end Stingers, etc).
The issue is that all those Kias got stolen and trashed by Kia Boys. :(
I had a 2011 Kia Soul that I was going to drive until it died. Someone else did the dying part for me.
rasz
9 hours ago
>2012 Kia Soul will last until 200k miles
not the 1.6L GDI one
com2kid
2 hours ago
Ok fair. Souls came with a lot of different engine models. The engine in my 2011 soul was pre-gdi and is rock solid stable basically forever. I also had a 2015 forte with the 1.6L turbo which is, from my understanding, also super reliable so long as you change the oil every 3000 miles.
The absurd warranty Kia used to have encouraged them to put out good products. I had incorrect oil put in my Soul (at an oil change place!) and Kia warranty replaced the entire engine.
ragall
18 hours ago
It's very well possible to get 500k kilometers out of a Mercedes or Audi. They're mechanically quite reliable as long as maintenance is done religiously.
skeeter2020
2 hours ago
>> as long as maintenance is done religiously.
Maybe, but an oil change & minor service for my Mom's off-warranty Mercedes is clsoe to $1000. You seem to be fighting yourself if you're after a long-term reliable driver and go Euro luxury.
laurencerowe
9 hours ago
Each of my Audi A4 wagons has suffered catalytic converter failure around 200,000 miles / 350,000 km which has rendered them uneconomic to repair (at least in California.) But it's about the only wagon on sale in the US (SUVs do not fit in my garage) so I guess I am stuck with them. It seems more economic to buy a cheap one and drive it into the ground (one can buy two used Audis for the equivalent Toyota/Lexus.)
throwawaylaptop
15 hours ago
Maybe on the older models. But I'm a sucker for buying high miles cars, and you simply won't even FIND a high miles Audi A7 for example. You'll find cheap ones sure, for $5k even, with 150k miles and multiple issues the owner can't afford to fix. I've never even seen a 200k mile Audi for sale near me, and I'm in a huge major metro area.
turtlebits
14 hours ago
And if you have deep pockets. My BMW at 120k miles started to cost around 2k a year to maintain. I ended up selling it for 6k.
ragingregard
13 hours ago
"The average ICE car does not survive to 200,000 miles"
That's a fair amount of misinformation in your post.
1) Any reliable ICE brand goes well above 200k miles with basic maintenance. There's a long history here of reliability and why so many drivers choose boring yer reliable brands like Toyota, Honda, Mazda, etc. If you choose brands that do not prioritize reliability then that's on you. (i.e. Mercedes drivers switching into Tesla)
2) Mileage (distance) is not actually the determining factor here in longevity, car age is. Average age of ICE cars is around 12 years in the USA. That's average, which means there are many cars that are much much older than that. Battery cars will be lucky if they average out 8 years as a fleet. Probability is 75%+ you're looking at a battery replacement at the 12 year mark if not sooner. Vast majority of drivers will not replace said battery making the car a throw away due to cost (no one financially competent spends $10k-$20k on a battery for a car worth less than $10k). This will absolutely drive fleet age down, resulting in a younger fleet and more disposable cars. Replacement batteries are not plentiful or cheap and there's no reason for that to change due to the industry strategy.
"Tesla still averages being able to hold 90% of original charge"
3) Lucky you. It's well known in the community first year degradation is typically 5%-10% and there after 1-2% per year till a major failure. Do you know how to measure your original charge? Have you driven the car from 100% to 0% to verify total battery capacity or you just going of the BMS hoping it knows the true capacity. BMS is regularly off by 5%+ so for all you know your true capacity is already nearing 80%. If you know Lithium battery science then you know after 80% the capacity hits a cliff rate of degradation accelerates. Few people drive their cars below 10% battery so they don't really know.
eldaisfish
19 hours ago
a lot of this data on battery health comes from california. Not everywhere has California's climate and lithium ion battery packs do not do well in the cold.
Also, the link you shared is just a collection of anecdotes. It doesn't provide evidence of a trend.
supportengineer
19 hours ago
Knowing several people driving 10+ year old Tesla's, I have to disagree with you.
1. Yes, the range is a little less. One person got their battery replaced by a 3rd party specialist. Runs great.
2. They certainly are repairable, just take it to Tesla service or a 3rd party mechanic.
3. Even if the battery is $20k, now you essentially have a new car for only $20k.
stackedinserter
12 hours ago
> Even if the battery is $20k, now you essentially have a new car for only $20k.
By this logic, I get a new car every time I fill up my tank.
g8oz
2 hours ago
No, a better analogy for the OP's logic would be that you get a new car every time you replace the transmission (or some other major overhaul). A ICE fill up is equivalent to a EV recharge.
p1dda
8 hours ago
So true!
highwaylights
19 hours ago
Not really convinced the logic is right here. If the battery dies there’s still options before replacing it with a new one from the manufacturer at retail price.
Even then, batteries in EVs don’t have a 100% failure rate. There are still many 15 year old Leafs driving around on the original battery, and I’m not sure the out-and-out failures (I.e. not including gradual capacity loss) are a high number either.
Modern EVs (2016-present) have even lower failure rates again (below 1% within 200k miles including those replaced due to capacity loss)
throwawaylaptop
19 hours ago
I love my Chevy Volt. But I can't recommend a $5k volt to any of my friends wanting a cheap car. Because when you buy a $5k Toyota, it's basically never a random sensor glitch away from costing you $5k+ even at an independent. But volts are inside their battery pack.
stackedinserter
19 hours ago
That's not the reason why I'm personally not into EVs, but significant capacity loss == failure to me.
highwaylights
18 hours ago
It depends on the original range surely?
Losing 30% of 120 miles is a lot more significant to most people than losing 30% of 300 miles (which >99% won’t within the life of the car).
AnthonyMouse
17 hours ago
It also doesn't require the same person to be using the car.
Someone has a 90 mile round trip commute and buys a car with a 120 mile range. Having it drop below 90 miles after a decade isn't working for them anymore, so they sell it. Works fine for someone with a 30 mile commute.
BoredPositron
a day ago
My dad had to make the same decision and he was too vary because of the battery. He talked about his phone and that it doesn't last a day anymore while at 84% health after three years and translated it 1to1 to the car. Its hard to argue with people if they have a reference point but don't understand the differences. I guess most people just want that initial warranty for now. Are there any manufactures that give long warranties on the battery yet?
j1elo
3 hours ago
A very rough estimate for phone batteries is that they last 1000 recharge cycles. If on average you recharge every day, that's 300+ charges a year, and there you go, an expected life of 3 years. That phone is up for a battery replacement. Just like oil or wheels need to be replaced in a car.
Now, how many charges does a car battery do, and how frequently it tends to need one? The same calculation from phones can indeed be translated to cars, the only mistake is translating the end results of the calculation. Maybe that helps with your father?
TGower
a day ago
Yeah, pretty much all of them have long battery warranties. Tesla for example garuntees >=70% capacity for 8 years or 100k miles.
BeetleB
a day ago
> Tesla for example garuntees >=70% capacity for 8 years or 100k miles.
If you're used to buying used vehicles - that's not sufficient.
For context, all the cars I've bought in the last 20+ years have been at least 8 years old when I bought them. I can get an 8 year old Toyota/Honda and know I'm good for the next 5-7 years.[1]
Buying an 8 year old used Tesla with only 75% capacity? No way.
[1] Likely a lot longer. I'm right now driving a 22 year old vehicle that only started showing issues a year ago.
amatecha
10 hours ago
Oh yeah, my daily driver is a 20-year-old vehicle. It has cost literally just a couple $thousand in maintenance/repairs in the time we've owned it (probably around 10 years? I forget). It's getting kinda rough, but like... at least it doesn't have a battery replacement looming around the corner that would cost more than the entire price we paid for the vehicle.
I want an electric vehicle, but I'm not willing to pay the insanely high prices they go for. I typically don't want to spend more than $10k on a vehicle and I only have once (and that one got totalled in an accident literally a month or two after I finished paying off its loan). The times I've found a used EV in that price range, it's old enough that it will need a new battery soon, instantly ~doubling the price of the vehicle for me.
LeifCarrotson
21 hours ago
I'm in the same boat, or was until I finally caved last year and got my wife a 5 year old vehicle, everything else has had >150k miles and >10 years.
I will say that my '03 Pontiac Vibe GT, at 280,000 miles, no longer has all the horses it did when it was younger. There's still a kick from 6000 to 8200 RPM, but I'm increasingly reluctant to hit that redline once a month to "keep it fresh" like I used to. The gradual compression loss and increased leak-down rate aren't that bad, but it might be 25% fewer horses, I guess. Man, I love that car and that engine. I ought to get it a new set of rings, get the cylinders bored out smooth, and give it fresh bearings. Sadly, the rust that's appearing on the body like a cancer probably makes that not worthwhile...
The good news for electrics is that those older motors will remain almost exactly as powerful as they day when they were new for decades.
Obviously, the fuel tank is still the same size it's always been, but range is not as much of a concern on a gas vehicle because gas stations are everywhere and you can fill up rapidly.
I personally hope that this becomes less of a concern as charger density improves year over year - in particular, as EVs become ubiquitous, landlords will start including L2 chargers in apartment parking complexes. Once everyone can charge in a garage overnight, range anxiety is hugely less important.
yibg
17 hours ago
> 03 Pontiac Vibe GT
So a Toyota :)
bcrosby95
21 hours ago
This. We have two cars.
One is 8 years old. That's old right? The other is 18 years old.
Neither have had major issues.
turtlebits
14 hours ago
TCO is way important than range. You'll likely spend thousands less on maintenance on an EV.
The few oil changes on my recently out of warranty 2021 Toyota have already cost more than the entire maintenance spend on my 2017 Bolt.
BeetleB
11 hours ago
> You'll likely spend thousands less on maintenance on an EV.
I don't spend many thousands on maintaining an ICE to begin with.
I've kept track of all car expenses since 2008 for 3 different cars. My average per year is $445. This is repairs and maintenance.
I'm not a gearhead. I know little about cars. I do whatever repairs my mechanic suggests. Things just don't break down much with reliable ICE cars.
TCO calculators are, in my experience, off by an order of magnitude. Ignore them.
> The few oil changes on my recently out of warranty 2021 Toyota
Are you doing them at the dealer? You're likely paying too much. And are you doing them on the manufacturer schedule or have you fallen prey to the "Every 3 months or 3000 miles" propaganda?
Most cars need it every 6 months. And unless your car needs some high quality oil, it's typically about $40 to get a regular mechanic to change it. So $80-100/year.
Broken_Hippo
7 hours ago
I have a car over 20 years old. I don't spend much money on maintenance. I don't have a car payment, taxes are very low, and insurance is decently cheap. Had it for a few years, have replaced brakes and some minor things. Didn't spend much on the vehicle, either.
Having a car payment would automatically be more expensive than my current vehicle. More taxes, more money each month, and so on. For electric cars, I won't get the incentives here in Norway for much longer, as they are being (mostly) phased out in the next few years.
To be fair, though: I walk a lot. I have a 5-10 minute walk to work (depending on snow). Driving takes longer. The car is used a few times a month. Realistically, my car is a luxury item and I'm lucky to live in a place that makes it so.
jandrewrogers
13 hours ago
Range is often a hard requirement, it isn’t optional. The TCO is infinite if your vehicle can’t take you where you need to go.
oblio
3 hours ago
The people you're discussing with most likely change the oil on their own.
mulmen
21 hours ago
The warranty doesn’t suggest the battery will be at 70.00001% on the first day of year 9. It says if it goes below 70% it will get replaced.
That 8 year old Toyota you bought came with a 6 year/60k mile warranty. If you are comfortable driving that to 2.5x the initial warranty then a used Tesla should be good to 250k and 20 years.
BeetleB
21 hours ago
> The warranty doesn’t suggest the battery will be at 70.00001% on the first day of year 9. It says if it goes below 70% it will get replaced.
The point is that they're not confident enough to say it won't be in that range. Put another way, why don't they just make the warranty 80% instead of 70%?
If Tesla's not confident in it, I definitely am not.
> That 8 year old Toyota you bought came with a 6 year/60k mile warranty. If you are comfortable driving that to 2.5x the initial warranty then a used Tesla should be good to 250k and 20 years.
We hope so, but we don't know, which is the point. Toyota has a track record. Tesla hasn't been around long enough to have a track record.
That aside, the real point is that ICE cars don't have any particular component that costs that much to replace. How much will a new EV battery cost me? Sure, on occasion you may have to rehaul your whole engine, but that's really rare. I've only known one Toyota owner who had to do that, and it cost (in today's dollars), about $6K.
When I buy an 8 year old car, I don't expect perfection. I know things will break - soon. I buy it with the confidence that repairs will not be too expensive, and even after all the repairs I'll still save a ton of money.
The other blocker is the private party market. So far I've never bought a car from a dealer. I always go private party. The standard procedure with that is you take the car to a trusted mechanic who will examine it and inform you of any potential problems. With electric vehicles, those mechanics can't do much. I've asked them. They can look at a few things like the brakes, but stuff related to the engine is beyond their ability. So whereas I may be comfortable spending a lot of money buying an ICE car from private party, I'm not for EVs.
mulmen
21 hours ago
Why doesn’t Toyota make their powertrain warranty 80k miles? Or 200k?
The warranty is there to cover failures. If a pack has a defect it will drop under 70%. If it doesn’t then it will continue working beyond the warranty term.
You’re assuming linear decay and that Tesla has fit the warranty coverage tightly to that line. It seems more likely to me that Teslas warranty is designed to address unexpected exponential decay. This is consistent with ICE powertrain warranties.
everforward
20 hours ago
The inconsistent part is the assured decay, as opposed to a low chance of catastrophic failure.
Your ICE car will either continue working basically the same, or it will fail catastrophically. I don't have to worry about my gas tank getting smaller over time, and even if it inexplicably does, gas stations are plentiful and stops are short.
It also makes resale rough, as people are talking about. You can salvage a power train from another scrapped car of the same model (or not, a lot of that is shared nowadays). Salvaging batteries is a bigger issue because so many will be worn down and materially worse than new, and they can be re-used which keeps their value high. Very few people have a use for an engine out of a 1983 Silverado, but a lot of people have uses for lithium ion cells.
I could probably get 2 ICE power trains for a decade old car for less than the price of a new battery pack, and I'd wager they'll go farther.
mulmen
20 hours ago
> Your ICE car will either continue working basically the same, or it will fail catastrophically.
This simply isn’t true. Fuel injectors decay. Catalytic converters decay. O2 sensors decay. Oil decays. Air filters decay. Spark plugs decay. Piston rings decay. All of these things affect fuel economy which directly translates to range.
Additionally the ICE related accessory pumps and sensors decay and fail and need replacement. Individually these are all cheaper than a battery pack but ICE vehicles absolutely have repair costs. They just spread those costs out across the entire complex powertrain.
BeetleB
20 hours ago
You're not wrong, but none of this answers the question I have: What will the capacity be at 15 years?
My current car is 22 years old. I paid a whopping $3.5K for it, and have not spent much in repairs.
My prior car - used it till it was 17 years old. Would have used it longer but someone totaled it. I paid (in today's dollars), about $12K for it. Spent very little in repairs.
The car before that - used it till it was 16 years old. I know the person who bought it from me and he used it for another 3-4 years. I paid $5.5K for it (today's dollars). Spent very little on repairs.
So anyone who's buying a 6-8 year old EV needs the following answers:
1. How long will the battery be good for?
2. How much will replacing it cost?
3. Will the savings on gas more than compensate?
com2kid
14 hours ago
> How long will the battery be good for?
I average a little under 7000 miles a year of driving.
Based on charge/discharge cycles my EV battery should be good for roughly 20 years.
> Will the savings on gas more than compensate?
At $26k for a top of the line trim, my Bolt EUV cost me less than a comparable ICE car. I'll never save any money on gas, but I don't need to.
Not having any maintenance needs is nice though. Just an air filter.
everfrustrated
15 hours ago
>What will the capacity be at 15 years?
For Tesla, the fastest capacity drop off is actually in the first couple of years. After that it plateaus quickly.
vel0city
18 hours ago
Anyone buying a 6-8 year old ICE needs the following answers:
1. How long will the engine and transmission actually be good for?
2. How much will replacing it cost?
You don't actually know for any given car. You can look at analysis of failure rates over time and make some kind of guess about an average for that model, but who knows about that particular one. At least with a battery you can get some pretty detailed state of health readouts, BMS technology can tell you a good bit more about battery health than what your ICE will tell you about transmission and engine wear without tearing it down.
BeetleB
11 hours ago
> How long will the engine and transmission actually be good for?
Fortunately, there's a ton of data out there. Some manufacturers/models are known to be reliable. Just hone in and buy those.
I've had to do repairs, but never that expensive. Never had transmission issues (keep in mind my cars are often over 10 years old - one over 20). For engine stuff, it's just a part replacement once in a while.
I posted elsewhere, but since 2008, my average car expense is about $450/year - that's repairs + oil changes.
> How much will replacing it cost?
Individual parts? Usually, not much. The whole engine? Dump the car. You got a lemon. Did you get it checked out by a trusted mechanic before buying?
> At least with a battery you can get some pretty detailed state of health readouts, BMS technology can tell you a good bit more about battery health than what your ICE will tell you about transmission and engine wear without tearing it down.
Fair point.
mulmen
20 hours ago
We have a pretty good idea how EV packs decay. This isn’t a new technology. Google searches suggest 1-2% decay per year. So a 15 year old car would have 70-85% of original range.
For pack replacements I don’t know, however it seems unlikely you’d really need to. The battery will almost certainly outlast the car. Range will be degraded but I don’t see a lot of 2005 vehicles doing cross country trips either. Even a degraded EV will be useful in town. Many people only drive a few tens of miles a day.
The cost per mile is a simple calculation. It’s a function of your local electricity prices.
BeetleB
18 hours ago
"In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each."
This is 11-12 years in.
Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, but 17% is a scary high number for me.
Also:
"This is in line with data from Recurrent, a firm that analyzes and measures EV battery performance, which found that 13 percent of EVs older than 2015 needed battery replacements. By comparison, only 1 percent of EVs newer than 2016 needed new batteries. "
The source of some of the data. What happened with 2020 vehicles?!
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batter...
mulmen
16 hours ago
> "In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each."
What was the remaining range for those replacements?
> Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then,
Tesla makes its own batteries right? When did that start?
> but 17% is a scary high number for me.
Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?
BeetleB
11 hours ago
> What was the remaining range for those replacements?
Who cares? Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.
I'm thinking of buying another car next year. $15K is my budget for an ICE car - and only if it has all the bells and whistles. Otherwise it's $12K. Spending another $15K on top of that is ridiculous.
> Is that high? I have no idea. How many ICE powertrains got replaced at the same time and what did it cost?
I'd love to know. All I have are anecdotes.
mulmen
8 hours ago
> Who cares?
Well I do because I only need to drive at most 75 miles a day and even a car with 30 miles of range would satisfy my commute requirements.
> Spending $15K on battery on a used car is a hard "No!", unless the car is under $10K.
Can you get a better car for $25,000.00? Would you spend $15,000.00 on a $1000.00 car?
NDizzle
20 hours ago
Batteries don't work like that and you know they don't.
ricardobeat
17 hours ago
Fuel efficiency on an ICE can drop up to 30% after 10 years... the end result is the same. But that's not on anyone's mind when buying a used car.
maxerickson
17 hours ago
I have a 2013 CRV with a EPA combined mileage of 25 mpg (AWD):
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bymodel/2013_Honda_CR-V.shtm...
I get combined mileage of 26 mpg. That's a short daily commute and a couple trips a month to a town ~70 miles away.
I haven't taken particularly stellar care of it.
nomel
16 hours ago
> the end result is the same.
Absolutely not.
This completely ignores the relatively high initial range of ICE (especially hybrid), and the poor real world state of the EV charging infrastructure, compared to petrol.
A 30% drop in range would be an extra 5 minutes at the nearest gas station, almost guaranteed to be within a couple miles.
And, that 30% is usually cheap to get back, usually just by some combination of changing the spark plugs, running a bottle of carbon removal/fuel system cleaner through, or changing the fuel injectors.
I have an electric, but I also understand why people are avoiding electric, and why 96% of people with EV also have an ICE car [1] (including me, with my newest being ICE)!
[1] https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2023/11/10/the-stat-that-say...
BeetleB
11 hours ago
> Fuel efficiency on an ICE can drop up to 30% after 10 years.
Source? Both of my first 2 cars got a good 38 mpg on the highway (no AC) after their 10 year mark. 38 mpg is the same as brand new.
ragingregard
13 hours ago
"Fuel efficiency on an ICE can drop up to 30% after 10 years"
Complete nonsense. Every 15+ year old ICE car I've known or owned was within 5% to 10% of original fuel economy, the reliable brands actually maintained their original fuel economy or surpassed it as fuel economy improves as engine wear in completes at the 20k-40k mile mark.
If your ICE car dropped by 30% then share the brand and your maintenance history.
JKCalhoun
a day ago
I'd rather they guarantee a fairly inexpensive replacement. When electrics can already give you range anxiety, 70% capacity is a deal-breaker.
rootusrootus
20 hours ago
Batteries are getting cheaper, and I think there is a perception issue here as well as perhaps a real issue of used parts availability.
A brand new Model 3 battery pack, for example, is in the neighborhood of 10 or 11K installed. Or at least it was about a year ago, I don't closely track prices. Blow up an engine, and you won't be far off that in an ICE car. I know someone who just dropped $18K because they blew up both the engine and the transmission in a single shot. Oops.
But the ICE car has cheaper used options, for sure, where you can probably fix a 15 year old car by dropping in a reman or used engine for under five grand. Options for used Tesla battery packs definitely exist but are nowhere as plentiful. Yet!
everfrustrated
15 hours ago
There are heaps of scrapped Tesla's and used batteries are absolutely an option.
rurp
21 hours ago
100k isn't all that many for a modern used car and that's a pretty sizable hit on the range given that it's by far the biggest limitation of an EV. Given those numbers it's reasonable that a used Tesla with say 125k miles might not be able to do a 150 mile round trip on a full battery. That's a pretty big limitation for some people.
rootusrootus
20 hours ago
You're going off the minimum for a warranty replacement, which is pessimistic. Most Teslas with 125K miles have not lost anywhere even close to 30% of the capacity. Typical will be more like 15% or a bit less. And even less than that for the LFP cars, IIRC.
Some cars I expect to do much better, due to manufacturer decisions. Ford, for example, put a pretty big battery in my Lightning, and then made the top 10kWh or so unusable. So far, this means that Lightnings with 100K miles (there aren't a huge number of them yet, but they do exist) often have 0 apparent degradation, or very low single digits.
avgDev
a day ago
8 years or 100k miles is bare minimum I would expect a car to last without major repair work.
These cars are not worth a lot after the warranty ends because the battery replacement cost exceeds the value of the car.
coredog64
17 hours ago
100k is a regulatory minimum. E.g. Toyota had to certify the original Prius traction batteries for 100k because they were considered part of the emissions control system.
scythe
a day ago
>long battery warranties.
My 2009 Prius is still running at 231k, for reference.
cbm-vic-20
a day ago
A Prius with only 50% of its battery capacity available is in much better shape than a Tesla with only 50% of its battery capacity.
HPsquared
21 hours ago
And an early Leaf with 50% of its battery capacity is almost useless.
hcknwscommenter
19 hours ago
I think the numbers of those early leafs (a lot were sold), their horribly degraded batteries, and their consequently low sales price make the numbers appear a bit more dire for resale EVs as a whole than they are in reality (breakdown loss of resale value by model and other EVs are doing much better). However, I think it is also true that EV resale values are lower than they perhaps should be due to used battery fears.
coredog64
17 hours ago
There are a bunch of California-only compliance cars that were essentially given away that would depress the values in the sector. I considered picking up a used Fiat 500e, but even though it was electric, FCA still managed to mess it up and a common recommendation was to keep a few specific tools in the back that enabled quickly disconnecting and reconnecting the battery.
Loudergood
20 hours ago
Early air cooled leafs aren't doing anyone any favors when talking about battery aging.
redmajor12
21 hours ago
With ICE cars, typically manufacturer warranties only are valid for the original purchaser.
SirMaster
20 hours ago
That's never been my experience...
I just got a repair on my 2023 Camry that I bought used. It was covered under the 36,000 mile bumper to bumper warranty.
I have had previous cars repaired under manufacturer warranty and I always buy used.
I just take it to the nearest certified dealer for that brand of car and they take care of it.
encom
21 hours ago
That must be a US specific thing, because that sounds demented.
rootusrootus
21 hours ago
It is untrue in the US. Manufacturer warranty follows the car. And it does so automatically, it is tied to the VIN and not whoever has the title.
vel0city
18 hours ago
Eh, its kind of mixed. Some manufacturers like Hyundai have essentially a baked in extended warranty (10y 100,000mi) that is non-transferrable, only the base warranty (5y 60,000mi) gets transferred.
HPsquared
21 hours ago
That perception means you can get a good deal on a used EV.
stalfosknight
a day ago
Tesla has an 8 year battery and motor warranty.
SoftTalker
a day ago
All well and good but 8 years isn't that old for a car. I don't even look at cars that new. I start at 10+ years old. The drivetrain on any car should last 20 years if it's not abused and given reasonable care and even if you end up needing to replace the engine or transmission that's a few thousand dollars on an older car. What would a new battery on a 10 year old Tesla cost you? Can you even buy one?
JKCalhoun
a day ago
> Can you even buy one?
I would like to think 1) that the answer is yes and 2) that the price in fact come down over time as battery tech gets cheaper, markets of scale, etc.
Maybe some startup needs to go into the battery replacement market for specific popular models of 8+ year old EVs.
micromacrofoot
a day ago
Average lifespan of a car in the US is 16 years, warranty covers half of that.
Given the lowest acceptable threshold for capacity under some warranties (70%) and assuming linear degradation, a 16 year old EV would have 40% capacity (worst case). Given a typical range of 250 for EVs today, that would put you at ~110 miles on a charge.
Seems like it would be a fine car to me given the age. I'd also expect battery swaps to become more common as the industry ages, which will drive prices down.
potatolicious
a day ago
> and get something way better.
The last part of OP's statement is the key. In a field that's rapidly advancing technologically, used prices are depressed because the new product is that much better than the used product.
Think back to the early smartphone days - every year phones multiplied in performance, in screen resolution, etc. In that environment a used item is less attractive because you feel like you're missing out on features/capability. This keeps used prices down. Nowadays used smartphones are more competitive because the rate of advancement (that buyers care about at least) has slowed.
For example there's another post later in this thread that points out that the Nissan Leaf has been the same price forever - except the current-gen Leaf has literally double the range of the last one. Effects like this depress used prices.
numpad0
a day ago
> ... because the new product is that much better than the used product.
This starts reading like a hallucination after a while. How much in a Tesla had changed over past 5 years or so that makes 2020 model completely obsolete and unappealing relative to 2025 model?
The range hasn't doubled, internal volume hasn't, acceleration or braking hasn't. They may have changed implementations under the hood, but none has been clearly communicated to potential customers, so they might as well be the exact same car.
Meanwhile, 2020 Prius is that ugly one with quirky dashboard, and 2025 is that mustard yellow thing with the HUD-like dash.
So what in an EV is so "rapidly advancing technologically" so much that it perfectly rule out much more simpler explanation that people just aren't interested in EVs, in favor of more hand-wavy one that the newer EVs are just constantly enormously more appealing to the customers that older ones tend to lose the appeal faster?
verdverm
21 hours ago
Look to BYD instead of Tesla if you want to find rapid advancement. Tesla has not been well managed for a few years, BYD recently passed them to become the biggest EV seller
I bought Hyundai, which charges 2x faster than the Tesla
Another thing to consider is the Tesla likely makes up the majority of the used EV inventory, and Tesla has become a toxic brand
numpad0
15 hours ago
I've seen more lamborghinis than privately owned BYDs at this point. Maybe it's just where I'm from, but consumers definitely aren't switching to BYD, around myself.
dboreham
15 hours ago
Recently in Singapore and Hong Kong. Roughly as many BYD as Teslas there.
theshackleford
12 hours ago
> Maybe it's just where I'm from
I mean it's pretty obviously this. You don't become the worlds largest EV seller if nobody is buying.
Sohcahtoa82
20 hours ago
> I bought Hyundai, which charges 2x faster than the Tesla
Your Hyundai charges at 500 kW?
verdverm
20 hours ago
There's more to charging than peak kW, notably sustained throughput
The amount of range you can put into the EV, per unit of time, is a better metric.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-charging.html
Hyundai has been on the 800V arch for a while with their E-GMP platform, Tesla's first entry is the 25th spot.
Sohcahtoa82
16 hours ago
Huh...that is interesting. TIL.
I wonder why the Tesla is not able to maintain the high charging rate? Both peak at about the same kW.
dboreham
14 hours ago
I don't think that's true. Afaik Tesla (except Cybertruck) have 400V charging limited to 250kW while the other vehicles have 800V charging allowing 350kW or so.
bmicraft
19 hours ago
Maybe the car is more efficient and it's twice the rate in "driveable distance-charged" per unit of time?
Spivak
18 hours ago
Sweet Jesus 1000 miles of range per hour is incredible. It might not technically solve the road trip problem but that's fast enough to make a not even five minute pit stop to get you home. Any range anxiety for intra-city travel is just gone.
zer00eyz
18 hours ago
> BYD recently passed them to become the biggest EV seller
Well when your government subsides every sale, and your the cheapest product on the market this is a natural outcome.
Mass strikes by workers (in china). Fires (a lot of them). Recalls (several this year). And now massive tariffs for them in a lot of markets don't paint a picture that they have a sustainable business.
We all know that subsidized growth is a great way to build a business (see ridesharing, delivery, in the US) but it doesn't make consumers happy in the end when prices go up and service quality goes down.
Spivak
18 hours ago
Having ridden in a lot of BYDs when traveling overseas I think you paint too bleak a picture. They're everywhere and reliable enough to seemingly be the preferred cars for uber drivers. Some markets might tax them out of existence but I expect others will gladly take perfectly serviceable cars on the cheap.
Tesla is still kicking and they had all the same problems at one time or another. I mean until this year we also massively subsidized every EV sale so pot calling the kettle black.
zer00eyz
13 hours ago
> I mean until this year we also massively subsidized every EV sale so pot calling the kettle black.
There is a big difference between domestic subsidies and export subsidies.
One is a policy to promote adoption the other is akin to economic warfare.
theshackleford
12 hours ago
> There is a big difference between domestic subsidies and export subsidies.
Nice goalpost shifting.
zer00eyz
11 hours ago
The OG tax break on Hybrids and EV's first caught on with the Nissan Leaf, and Toyota Prius.
That isnt the government subsidizing an EV for export.
https://www.electrive.com/2025/08/22/china-discloses-subsidi...
jopsen
20 hours ago
I think it's also fair to argue that it's probably more perceived, than actual.
People are obsessed with EV range, and massively concerned that used EV have degraded batteries.
Most likely there are some market inefficiencies here. Good for you, buy a cheap used EV ;)
Also many EVs are still not attractive to price sensitive consumers. And the price insensitive ones, won't buy used EV.
PunchyHamster
a day ago
> The last part of OP's statement is the key. In a field that's rapidly advancing technologically, used prices are depressed because the new product is that much better than the used product.
And 2 years old EV is not twice as bad as current one
> For example there's another post later in this thread that points out that the Nissan Leaf has been the same price forever - except the current-gen Leaf has literally double the range of the last one. Effects like this depress used prices.
The previous gen is 8 years old. It took 8 years to "double" the quality, not 2
Terr_
20 hours ago
> And 2 years old EV is not twice as bad as current one
The new-vs-used price difference in equipment comes from multiple factors, of which "better features" is one part.
Consider what would happen if you gave someone this choice:
1. Keep your 10-year-old car. (No major upgrades from stock.)
2. Pay $X to trade it for its identical factory-sibling which was made the same day but was stored in a timeless stasis-bubble until today, so that it still has its original new-car smell.
I can't imagine anyone saying: "Well, there are zero new features, so I'll swap them for $0."
P.S.: The issues are even more obvious if the person is choosing between buying someone else's 10-year-old car versus paying an extra premium for the time-warp one, because there's uncertainty about the first vehicle's history and maintenance.
apelapan
19 hours ago
Yeah, because a car has tens of thousands of parts that age with both time and usage. The core drivetrain is just a tiny bit of that.
Everything is falling apart and that makes and old, used car... Used and old. Now queue the people who show up to say they haven't changed a tire or wind screen wiper blade on their 2012 Model S/Camry and can't perceive a single difference to when they were new from factory.
potatolicious
21 hours ago
Listen, I'm literally just describing basic market dynamics here - my post is not intended as an endorsement of plainly observable phenomena.
The depreciation/utility curve has always been aggressive no matter what product you're buying. Is a 2 year-old ICE car twice as bad as a new one? Is a 2 year-old TV? Clearly not, yet they are all worth that in the open market.
For EVs the depreciation curve is especially aggressive because of perceived advancements. Are the advancements worth buying new? I dunno! You tell me - but this is clearly being reflected in the market.
From a strict utilitarian standpoint, optimizing your depreciation/utility function should mean you're buying almost every single thing used. But yet lots of people don't do that. Humans are empirically not very good utilitarians!
hcknwscommenter
20 hours ago
>For EVs the depreciation curve is especially aggressive because of perceived advancements.
And many comments disagree with this statement. There are few perceived advancements. Used EVs are not trusted, particularly because the used battery fear.
jansper39
20 hours ago
Range though is only one aspect to take into account when quantifying the "quality".
eikenberry
a day ago
What part of EVs is "rapidly advancing technologically"? The battery is the only thing that comes to mind and they should be replaceable if that was the bottleneck. Self-driving is also advancing, but that hasn't stabilized as a feature yet. EV motors have been around for a long time and the rest seems like general car stuff that would be common with ICEs.
Following that logic it seems to come down to old batteries which aren't as good both due to technological advances and battery aging. If so, why aren't used dealers just including a battery swap in the price?
jacobr1
a day ago
> If so, why aren't used dealers just including a battery swap in the price?
I think that is the main thing that needs to be figured out. I suspect the problem is that you need to get OEM battery replacements for older model cars and those aren't yet readily available or cheap. We are going to need aftermarket batteries to drive price competition in the market. The current car manufacturers aren't incentivised to support a secondary market when they are still focused on primary sales. Also not in the ICE market there is much more ability to scale capacity. The supply chain constraints for EVs, and batteries are much tighter, though that keeps getting better.
jansper39
20 hours ago
Battery swaps are never going to be a thing long term, even with Nio rolling it out in areas. It adds huge amounts of weight and complexity. You have to build electrical and coolant connectors which can handle large amounts of connects and disconnects, in areas that get mucky and interact with rain, salt, snow and ice. You have to build a chassis strong enough to take an impact but also support the additional weight and space that a removable battery takes up - think of how much bigger phones with removable batteries.
I have done 900 mile road trips in EVs with 150Kw charging (low by standards of newer EVs) and charging has been a complete non problem. In fact I have more problems with plugging my car in, going to the toilet and coming back finding that I've put more power into the car than I wanted.
Batteries are lasting 200k+ miles with 85-90% original capacity in so longevity is not a problem and charging is becoming a solved problems in an increasingly large portion of the world too.
Dylan16807
19 hours ago
You put this in the wrong place. "Battery swap" in this context should be read like "transmission swap". Hours of work replacing a permanent part. Nothing to do with detachable batteries.
econ
19 hours ago
Hybrids keep their value remarkably well. If each engine isn't spinning half the time they will obviously last longer. They could have a small enough battery that make hot swapping a lot more realistic.
potatolicious
21 hours ago
> "What part of EVs is "rapidly advancing technologically"?"
Battery capacity, motor efficiency (getting more range out of the same battery), charging rate (800V architectures for example that let you charge > 150kW), battery chemistry (wider operating temp envelope, affects charging and driving efficiency depending on environment)... the list goes on.
The batteries are also getting cheaper - which is to say for the same $ you're now (generally) getting a larger battery.
> "If so, why aren't used dealers just including a battery swap in the price?"
Because the batteries are in fact not swappable from one gen to the next, because the power electronics around them are different, peak current draw is different (and that depends on the motor it's mated with!).
Like I know it's tempting and attractive to imagine EVs like regular cars with some giant-ass AA batteries installed on them, but that's not how they work! The battery is specced as a unit with the entire electrical system and drive motor options!
maxerickson
19 hours ago
The battery electronics aren't necessarily all that complicated:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZHN3fjDtpc
The precharge resistor has to be reasonably matched with the devices connected to the battery though.
And of course there could be additional converting electronics for charging or whatever.
thatfrenchguy
19 hours ago
If you look at EPA efficiency in 2020 and 2025, it hasn’t really moved that much for the same class of vehicle.
koolba
20 hours ago
> Like I know it's tempting and attractive to imagine EVs like regular cars with some giant-ass AA batteries installed on them, but that's not how they work!
Come on, we all know the big Christmas toys would always use those fat C batteries that we never had enough of.
bluescrn
6 hours ago
Batteries need to be split into several replaceable modules, so the entire car isn't a write-off if there's a fault or damage affecting the battery
Ideally, these battery modules would be standardised and used across a wide range of vehicles.
nick49488171
11 hours ago
This has always been the case for Maseratis.
ceejayoz
a day ago
> new EVs are selling for about twice as much as a 2-year-old used vehicle of the same make and model
There's a saying that a new car loses 50% when you leave the lot. It's presumably still true for EVs.
bombcar
a day ago
The 50% off the lot was always exaggerated, but it is nearly not true now at all - used prices for all cars have skyrocketed such that buying used is not nearly the deal it used to be.
In fact, buying new is almost always the way to go now over lightly used (e.g., less than 5 or even 10 years old).
jonbiggums22
21 hours ago
Even 20 years ago after I got out of college the advice to "buy a couple year old Honda Civic for cheap" had stopped working because everyone knew those cars were solid so the lightly used ones already barely cost less than new and the new ones often had cheap financing deals.
supportengineer
19 hours ago
A brand new 2026 Corolla is $25k (asking price!)
vel0city
18 hours ago
2024 Corollas around me are like $20k. If you need financing, the rates can often be worse for a used car than a new one. You then also have less warranty time left.
SirMaster
20 hours ago
I recently bought a used 2023 Camry with 29K miles fully loaded, for 29K. New for the same features which I wanted comes out to 42.6K according to the Toyota configure website, and I assume there might even be some extra fee on top of that possibly...
bombcar
20 hours ago
Basically this - https://www.carmax.com/car/27550586 ?
The 2026 is a hybrid, was the older one?
However, saving more than a dollar a mile is pretty good, in favor of used. It's when you're saving less than 25 cents a mile that used probably isn't worth it.
SirMaster
18 hours ago
Almost. Mine has the premium sound system which I really wanted, and ventilated seats, and the 360 camera view, front cross traffic and rear cross traffic monitoring, full lane centering for the full speed cruise control.
It's not hybrid but I don't want hybrid. That's more parts to have issues and I keep for 10 years and the hybrid batteries don't usually last that long, and I don't drive enough for the gas mileage to really make a meaningful cost difference.
Consultant32452
21 hours ago
Cash for clunkers destroyed mountains of cars which increased pollution and forced a bunch of people up the food chain with regard to competition for used cars.
bombcar
20 hours ago
A big part of it began there, and Covid just made it even worse by constraining new car supply for a while.
supportengineer
19 hours ago
Not to mention, all the excess dollars means that almost any older car has increased value for nostalgia seekers and enthusiasts.
cameron_b
19 hours ago
The higher cost of financing making people hold the cars they have has further reduced the supply.
bhelkey
a day ago
> There's a saying that a new car loses 50% when you leave the lot.
New cars in no way lose half of their value when you drive them off the lot. The saying is that a new car loses ~10% of it's value when you drive it off the lot [1].
dessimus
a day ago
Right or wrong, the _saying_ is that "a new car loses half its value as soon as you drive off the lot." I've heard that repeated from many people across multiple regions in regards to buying a new vehicle. I've always heard half, never 10%, even if 10% is the more demonstrable amount.
ianferrel
a day ago
That saying has always been a huge exaggeration, though. The price of a barely-used car is usually single-digit percentage points lower than an actually new one.
skeeter2020
2 hours ago
I don't get your angle; EVs cost more than the comparable car new, cost way more to repair and depreciate faster. More electrical waste, but not cheap to begin with? Cars (in my mind at least) should last 15, 20 or more years; that doesn't seem to be happening here.
varjag
2 hours ago
EV maintenance costs are way lower. There's hardly non-recycleable electrical waste in EVs. And they absolutely can last 15 years: depreciation doesn't mean they fall apart.
ekidd
2 hours ago
I am concerned about EV maintenance outside of warranty. My family has routinely gotten even American cars above 200,000 miles, or at least kept them going for 15 years or more.
This has gotten harder over the years. Cars from 2010 rust a lot less than cars from 1985. But they have more computers, and the computers die. These computers are often hard to replace. Even good mechanics tend to recommend going to the dealer. It's rarely less than a $1500 replacement.
And EV cars? They often have an extra half-dozen critical computers beyond what's in a gas car. So I worry that well-maintained Honda and Toyota EVs will fail sooner than their conventional models.
Perhaps this worry is misplaced. We'll see.
beambot
a day ago
This entire argument relies on new EV prices declining like other technologies, but this doesn't seem to be the case. E.g. the Nissan Leaf is ~$30,000 and has been for almost a decade. (Guess you could make a case with inflation... but nowhere near the technology price curves.)
nostrademons
a day ago
It is the case globally. BYD sells EVs starting at $7800 [1][2], and Toyota sells an EV for $15,000 in China [3].
This may also be why Teslas are holding their value better than any other EV. Teslas are usually bought by U.S. consumers, who are forbidden from buying any of the cheaper global EVs by import restrictions. For fleets that buy models that are sold globally, they compete in the global market and are subject to global price declines.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5h6R2jLUQ
[2] https://insideevs.com/reviews/769113/byd-seagull-good-video-...
[3] https://motorillustrated.com/toyota-launches-15000-bz3x-its-...
AnotherGoodName
a day ago
Tesla's are also mostly made in China now.
The Chinese Tesla's are also dropping in price if you live in a country that hasn't got massive tariffs on Chinese made cars which is basically everywhere in the world except North America and Europe. Tesla literally won't sell you a Model S in Australia for example since it's made in the USA and there's no way they can sell it for a reasonable price.
It's a little damning for the US car market since Tesla's seen as a success of US manufacturing. Globally they are a Chinese made car.
decimalenough
19 hours ago
The actual reason why you can't get a Model S in Australia is that Tesla does not manufacture a right hand drive version any more. You're equally out of luck in Japan, the UK, etc.
testing22321
11 hours ago
Why did they stop making the RHD version?
Because it was too expensive inRHD markets that have access to global EVs
dchftcs
21 hours ago
Also ironically their Chinese made car is said to have better build quality than the US made one.
formerly_proven
20 hours ago
Maybe not that surprising, in large part the Germans built up the Chinese auto industry, and Tesla went to China to tap into that manufacturing knowledge/talent and backported it to their US factory.
kube-system
a day ago
> Teslas are usually bought by U.S. consumers
More than 62% of Teslas are sold outside of the US.
jacobr1
21 hours ago
I think they meant the reverse. The majority of US EV sales are of Tesla's: https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/15/auto-brands-leading-the...
brewdad
13 hours ago
If we want to get nitpicky, Tesla no longer has the majority of US EV sales. Their market share has fallen to 42.3%. They still have a huge lead on the next closest brand however.
adgjlsfhk1
a day ago
The 2012 Nisan leaf had a 73 mile range. The 2025 leaf has a 300 mile range. 4x range at the same price (~30% less with inflation) is a pretty good improvement.
jacobr1
21 hours ago
We've reach a point of price stabilization and longevity for smartphones now that didn't exist for the first 10 year ramp. When every new model added fundamental capability, you always want to upgrade, with the sweet spot often being every other year. But now, with better build quality, batteries, and stabilization of features people will keep their phones for much longer. Or buy "new" models that are of older versions since the price/features have been acceptable to run most of the apps they care about for years now. Plenty of people still want the top end for similar reasons to why people buy design clothing, but we've reached a feature plateau. We hopefully are getting close to that with EVs. Seems like around 300 mile range standard was the key thing. Though improved AI driving could change that again.
crote
14 hours ago
The main issue with smartphones is software support, as it essentially acts like a built-in time bomb.
Buying an older-generation flagship model to get better features than a current-generation midrange model of the same market price isn't very attractive when it'll have to be replaced after 2 years instead of 5 years.
dchftcs
21 hours ago
The only reason US doesn't have an EV cheaper than that is a >100% tariff on Chinese EVs.
platevoltage
20 hours ago
Could be part of it, but the US just doesn't have cheap cars anymore. The days of the Geo Metro and the Dodge Neon with a 5 speed and crank windows is over. Car companies have decided to relegate people (in the USA) with either low income, or who cant stomach the type of depreciation every car suffers from, to the used market.
tfvlrue
10 hours ago
My (admittedly very, very limited) personal experience owning cars actually suggests cars are getting cheaper over the past couple decades. Specifically, my data looks like this:
- A new Honda Accord LX in 2003 was ~$19k
- A new Honda Accord LX in 2020 was ~$23k
In today's dollars, that's roughly $33k and $29k, respectively. These numbers are very approximate, but it means the same car model in 2020 was about 12% less expensive than the one in 2003. And the new version has a whole lot of improvements and features the old one didn't. (They cheaped out and removed the lock from the glove compartment though!)
Stepping back and thinking about the complexities that go into manufacturing a modern automobile, it's wild to me that they can cost so little compared to what you get. It's a machine that can travel 200+ thousand miles and last for decades with barely any maintenance.
Commercial-scale vehicles (semi trucks, busses) cost an order of magnitude more than personal vehicles, yet share many of the same complexities. Like, how are cars so cheap for what they are? Manufacturing volume, I guess.
9dev
8 hours ago
> Like, how are cars so cheap for what they are? Manufacturing volume, I guess.
That, and externalising a lot of the const on society, the environment, and third world countries.
Open-Sourcery
6 hours ago
A opposed to the commercial vehicles which don't?
labcomputer
18 hours ago
The reality is that there's no margin in cheap cars. You need to look at numbers instead of vibes.
The difference between 4 crank-up window regulators and 4 power window regulators is less than $100. 4 power lock actuators cost less than $20. Switches for all the above are, what, maybe $10?
The same math applies to power mirrors, auto climate control, heated seats, cruise control, and all the rest.
The production cost of a car with "power everything" vs. "manual everything" is a few hundred dollars at most. But consumers expect a much bigger discount for the inconvenience of missing those features (or, conversely, are willing to pay a much larger premium to add those features to a baseline car).
That the US doesn't have cheap cars is simply the reality of what the market demands. Cheap (new) cars don't sell (for more than what it costs to produce them).
platevoltage
10 hours ago
I wasn't implying that throwing manual window regulators on a 2025 model car would be a significant cost reduction. It was just 2 examples that I could think of to back up my point that there are fewer affordable cars than there used to be.
supportengineer
19 hours ago
2026 Corolla is $25k.
I saw a manual transmission Nissan Versa for $17k.
How much cheaper can they get?
kelnos
18 hours ago
A friend of mine bought a used car in 2007 for ~$4500 in 2025 dollars.
In my mid-20s I bought a 3-year-old Accord for $16k (using a $12k loan) and that was a big stretch for my finances at the time, despite having a good early-career tech job.
Your $17k figure is a lot of money for most folks in the US.
khuey
a day ago
MSRP of an internal-combustion-powered Civic or Corolla is up 30ish percent in the same time period. The 2025 Nissan Leaf is a lot better than the 2015 model too. Range has nearly doubled for one.
kasey_junk
a day ago
What are the ranges across that decade. If the inflation adjusted price is lowering and the main technical limit is improving, it’s exactly what you’d expect from a technology improvement.
Car prices are tough too because how much subsidies, tariffs etc play into it.
But theoretically if you used a US made car you could limit some of that bias.
dangus
a day ago
No, you completely missed the point. The new model is still ~$30,000 but it has better range/charges faster/drives better.
That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one.
If you buy a 5 year old EV you might get one that charges slow, doesn’t have a heat pump, has worse battery chemistry, battery health management, and the list goes on.
Heck, the Leaf is a perfect example because you’re stuck with chademo fast charging charging instead of CCS or NACS. I wouldn’t touch one with a 9 foot pole unless I planned to exclusively charge at home.
Also, don’t take my comment to mean that I think used EVs are a bad choice, many of them can work very well for many years and use cases as long as you are properly informed.
edbaskerville
a day ago
This argument seems right to me. Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones. EVs are getting better quickly, so fast depreciation makes sense.
I avoided a used Leaf for exactly the reason you cited...2.5 years ago, and have been very happy with a last-of-its-generation 2023 Chevy Bolt (~ $22K new after tax credit).
But if you don't care about new features, e.g., really fast charging, a used Bolt (55kW max) is a great option!
idiotsecant
a day ago
>>Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones.
I'm not sure that's totally true. The rate of change might be lower, but new ICE vehicles have higher efficiency (directly correlating to longer EV range) and are safer, more comfortable, and quieter.
I am definitely on the pro-EV side, nearly an evangelist I suppose, but ICE vehicles do improve.
seanmcdirmid
a day ago
How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people?
ICEs have longer range, some of them are really fuel efficient, especially hybrids. But they drive relatively more poorly unless you opt for a sports car that is cramped and expensive. It isn't the worse thing in the world to drive an ICE, but it is noticeably less fun than driving an EV.
dare944
19 hours ago
> How are ICEs quieter than EVs?
That wasn't the point being made. The point was that newer ICE cars are quieter than older models, and thus ICE vehicles have improved (at least to some degree) over the same period as EVs.
overfeed
21 hours ago
> How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people?
I think your second sentence answers your first. Car noise = tire noise + motor noise. EVs have very low motor noise compared to IC.
EVs also tend to have better cabin dampening on average, but that likely has to do with price-band consumer expectations, and not inherent to the method of propulsion.
seanmcdirmid
21 hours ago
You know you can disable that. It might be against the law though, and it isn't the EVs that demand noise, it is the society that demands them not to be silent killers. Even Hybrids have to make this noise when they are running on their electric drive trains.
But let's say ICEs were made as quiet, they would be demanded to make noise as well. Also, no one has done anything about tire noise yet, so at high speeds, EVs and ICEs are about the same.
platevoltage
20 hours ago
EVs are also much heavier, which contributes to lower noise as well. You've got a massively heavy battery pack between you and the road.
idiotsecant
16 hours ago
None of the comparisons I made were between ICE and EV, They're between old ICE and new ICE.
Marsymars
a day ago
> That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one.
Depends. I recently went from a manual car to a mild hybrid with an eCVT. Feels pretty different to me.
dangus
18 hours ago
Hybrids with eCVTs existed 5-15 years ago. You just happened to not be driving one.
Marsymars
18 hours ago
Er, yeah, but that’s kinda analagous to the situation with EVs - there’s a big difference going from a 2015 Nissan Leaf to a 2025 Models S - there’s not nearly as much of a difference going from a 2015 Models S to a 2025 Model S.
nwienert
a day ago
This isn’t what’s happening though.
I see Tesla Highland models (<1 year old, current gen) selling at significantly larger depreciations than nearly new gas cars. This holds across other EV manufacturers.
dangus
18 hours ago
This makes a ton of sense considering the recently expired tax credit. The moment you drive an EV off the lot in September or earlier it’s worth $7,500 less than the normal depreciation.
I think if we give the used market a few years without the tax credit it’ll start to look more normal.
nwienert
18 hours ago
I think that only explains some of it, but definitely not all. The difference between gas models is massive. Look at Audi e trons for example which are regularly hitting 70% depreciation in 3 years with relatively low miles.
I think it’s a lot of things: demand is weakening because people are seeing that the attempt to force them on us faltering so we don’t have to switch, trust in reliability is lower, trust in battery durability too.
Also I think some of the myths of EVs advantages are being uncovered: the cost of batteries and tires takes a lot of the cost benefits away. EV charging stations are past 50% of gas station costs, when they used to be subsidized to be free. The complexity of battery, and the immensely complex heating and cooling systems means they aren’t as simple as many thought. There’s also environmental stuff - 2010s was peak climate change anxiety, you got a lot of social credit for an EV then, even more so because they were novel. The novelty factor and lack of cultural emphasis on environment both are degrading prices too.
labcomputer
18 hours ago
e-Trons are definitely among the best deals right now in used EVs, but it's down to a confluence of factors specific to that car:
1. It had fairly good charging, but only so-so range. 250 miles seems to be a big psychological barrier for a lot of people and the e-Tron is on the wrong side of that line.
2. It's a luxury car and should be expected to have luxury car depreciation as a baseline
3. It's a luxury car with luxury car maintenance costs
4. It's a luxury car that had (maybe has) some reliability issues which incur luxury car repair costs
5. Audi had very good lease deals when they were new ("trunk money" was a common phrase)
6. Fuel economy is fairly bad when compared to anything other than an EV pickup
All these combine to make it a used car that only appeals to a very specific buyer.
nwienert
14 hours ago
True but the range isn’t really outside of the average range and luxury cars aren’t that uncommon. The deals were because they were high priced but don’t nearly account for the difference. 125k msrp now going for 55k with low miles is really something else, even if people got them for 105 or so which is what I heard, that’s still the 60% I mentioned.
mixmastamyk
a day ago
Indeed, and didn't even mention ~30% inflation over the last five years.
jeffbee
a day ago
I don't think that's a realistic transaction price for the Nissan Leaf. For most of that decade they were all but giving them away on leases as low as $79/mo. There are probably streaming video channels that cost more than a Nissan Leaf.
al_borland
3 hours ago
I don’t think it’s that EVs are getting that much better year-over-year. I think it’s more that people are scared to buy a used EV, because they don’t know how long batteries will hold up and what to look for. To anyone who hasn’t done a bunch of research (most people) it seems much more risky.
rafamvc
2 hours ago
Also, tax incentives on new EVs push the used market lower, creating a false sense of depreciation.
I expect the market to reconcile the difference now that EVs subsidizes are ending.
Another possible alternative is that the consumer has to be educated that buying used EVs is not like buying a used cellphone, and that EV batteries do last 10+ years.
riehwvfbk
an hour ago
They dont seem to actually last 10 years though. Sure, in an old Prius you only care about the battery not being completely shorted out, and the price of battery degradation is slightly worse fuel economy.
However, every time I look at renting a Tesla on Turo, each and every example has reviews with stories about not making 100 miles to the next stop on their trip. These are cars that are only 3-4 years old, not 10.
mikepurvis
a day ago
I'm an upper middle class person who could buy everything new if I wanted, but I still choose to acquire many things used. I have a new TV but my AVR and most of the speakers are second hand. I bought a four year old car. My CPU and RAM are new, but the motherboard and GPU are from FB marketplace. My monitors are new but my desk and office lights are cobbled together. My laser printer is almost twenty years old. I buy a lot of my clothes and almost all of my sporting gear second hand.
I partly don't own an EV because even used they still cost a lot upfront and I'd rather maintain the personal incentive to take mass transit or ride my bike, but when I do eventually go electric, it'll almost certainly be preowned, assuming I can get a reasonable discount off of new.
dendrite9
a day ago
Depending on how far back you want to look at electric cars you can find them for pretty cheap. Sub $5k versions from 10 years ago were tempting recently when my partner needed a repair on the current (ICE) car. It looked like sub $15k there were many options. For use around the city it would be a good fit, but I ditched the ideas since we're in the process of dealing with partial house rewiring. That might be an update for later.
onlyrealcuzzo
18 hours ago
Or it could be the simple explanation:
That current EVs just depreciate faster than ICE cars (in the US).
The article's chart is about used ICE vs EV prices in the US...
New EVs are definitely not 2x as good as a few years ago at half the price. Not sure if you've seen the price of new EVs in the US without subsidies.
ICE cars don't have a ~20% range depreciation after 5 years. EVs do. One would expect them to depreciate faster, until there's a solution for that.
That's not really a problem if they depreciate faster if the total operation cost is lower - which it almost certainly is for the Chinese EVs (relevant to most of the world).
bobthepanda
13 hours ago
The data in the article is kind of all over the place. But also at least one big distortion is that
* these are rental cars, which are used much more intensely than normal used cars
* a big chunk of the (US) stats are Hertz dumping Teslas, specifically. It had to dump 30,000 of them (which is a huge amount of Teslas to just flood the market with all at once); and Tesla specifically has people trying to sell their cars due to the brand of their CEO.
Spooky23
a day ago
I think it’s hard to draw any conclusions about the auto market. The cost escalations of cars and the bizarro economy have changed the market fundamentally.
The weird gaps of supply in model years because of the pandemic and prices are just nuts. The value of my 2016 SUV has gone up $4000 since last year. EVs are super volatile — my brother has netted profit from trading them. My girlfriend sold her 14 month old Subaru for $1000 under her cost - the pretax value appreciated.
jdeibele
a day ago
Hard agree. A drunk driver hit our parked 2015 Mazda CX-5. We paid about $27,000 for it in 2016. The car was totaled and we received about $17,000. That figured out to just about $1100 in depreciation per year for 9 years.
emmelaich
20 hours ago
You are spot on. New car EV prices are dropping and tech is advancing.
EVs inherently depreciate less; they're simpler, few moving parts. The motor is sealed. Batteries are lasting longer than expected.
So 'depreciate' in the title is misleading. It may be technically true in that they lose resale value, but they are definitely not less road-worthy than a similarly aged combustion vehicle.
I would absolutely buy a second hand Tesla, they're great value. Probably other EVs too.
fair_enough
20 hours ago
You're right, but it still sucks that my car now depreciates as fast as my Macbook. I don't think batteries will ever hold their value though, and those things constitute at least $10k of an EV's sticker price.
Hopefully as EVs become less ugly-looking, the body and interior hold their value, even if the value of the battery depreciates rapidly.
If somebody made an EV that looked like a 1980s Rolls Royce Corniche- something tasteful- I would buy an EV.
jgilias
18 hours ago
But _why_ would the battery depreciate so much? My 4 year old EV can drive the same distance as it could when it was new. The data we have on EVs just doesn’t support the idea that their range drops a cliff at some point. And if they do, you’re mostly able to have it fixed by swapping the faulty cell module. Which more and more places are able to do. And even when it reaches the end of life, it’s still good for grid applications.
So the way I see it, the EV resale value is really due to two factors. One being that, yes, the typical EV buyer is able to buy new. And the other being knee jerk reaction to used EVs that’s mostly emotion-based.
I expect the resale value become better in some years. And I fully expect end of life EVs costing more than end of life ICE cars, because the battery will definitely be more valuable than a scrap pile.
pmontra
20 hours ago
Maybe $30k or $40k are nothing for the average car owner in the USA but that's 3 or 4 times what a small car used to cost here in Europe, even 5 times. Small cars are going extinct or their price doubled because they are transitioning to electric too. The result is that they are selling few EVs and a lot of used combustion engine cars. The EV transition is derailing here because of price, not because of second hand market value.
bluescrn
6 hours ago
There's also a whole lot of people without the option of charging at home, especially here in the UK (relying on on-street parking or living in flats)
Green tech is great if you're upper-middle class with a nice big detached home, plenty of space to install solar, a heat pump, and EV charger. But a large percentage of people just don't have a 'compatible home' even if they had the cash available to invest in such tech.
shinycode
18 hours ago
Exactly. There is such a gap between brand new EV and regular cars that for someone doing 10000km per year it needs on average 8 years before breaking even to account for the price gap. It’s too expensive right now it does makes sense to invest in an EV, except if money isn’t a problem
strangattractor
21 hours ago
The EV car market is rapidly evolving which tends to make people skittish about purchases and tend to the latest innovations. I decided to lease my first EV because I figured it would be outdated pretty quickly.
I was wrong. In reality the main innovation driver is the battery. The car is great and EVs are much less maintenance. I think used sales would be better if there were better aftermarket options for batteries.
ethagknight
3 hours ago
Wait solar panels?? No one is buying used solar panels. They degrade rapidly and the cost of the panel is a small piece of the overall install
malfist
3 hours ago
That's just not true. Lots of people buy used solar panels to do cheaper DIY installs.
Solar panels do degrade, but its not anywhere near "rapid". Go look at the lengths of warranties on panels these days
ulrikrasmussen
10 hours ago
I don't think this is true for smartphones anymore, new models bring only marginal improvements to the last ones, and buying a used model in almost new condition allows you to save around 50%.
fyrn_
17 hours ago
I think it's also in large part due to the demographics of ev buyers today. Still a lot of wealthy early tech adopters who specifically want the newest thing. Not yet driven by utility value ( not that cars ever really are, lower end but ICE vehicles are much closer to that)
This isn't car specific, it's new technology specific.
exasperaited
17 hours ago
I agree (just made an analogy to DSLRs in another comment)
intexpress
17 hours ago
I buy used all the time. It is way cheaper and new things are usually not much better (sometimes new things are worse).
For example a lot of new TVs are worse than old TVs, because new TVs have ads in their UIs, and increasingly new TVs don't even come with remotes anymore.
goalieca
a day ago
Old cell phones and computers are fine from a performance and features point of view. The lack of support, repairability, and durability affect the resale value more than anything.
Tires, summer and winter, are also very expensive. ICE weighs a lot less and generally have much cheaper tires.
oceanplexian
a day ago
It's 100% a reparability issue. When it breaks it will become a brick, that's why.
There are close to zero shops that will work on the powertrain of an EV. The only exceptions are enthusiasts like Rich Rebuilds, etc.
jonbiggums22
21 hours ago
I actually think that the used market for EVs just is going to have more apartment dwellers (who lack home charging infrastructure) and people who only have access to one car (and thus more strongly prefer something that can easily do long trips without much planning). New EVs are new cars which are expensive as hell and primarily going to be purchased by well off people that have houses. And as you said, these people probably aren't getting much work done at the dealership even if we assume the dealership services EVs.
I've noticed in discussions about EVs a lot of people feel range anxiety if overblown, which is probably true. But the "I have nowhere to charge it at night because I don't own a house" problem is usually just ignored even though it seems like a much bigger problem to me.
shinycode
17 hours ago
That’s what I always thought, not having the proper infrastructure is a greater problem because not every apartment has private garage with electricity. In the hyper center of big towns they will never dig the streets to install chargers for every few parking spots and superchargers are rare for the amount of cars there is compared to 3min for gas with ubiquitous infrastructure. Where I live there is often parkings with 50+ cars and no or 2 chargers
kube-system
a day ago
Rich runs a youtube channel not a repair shop. There are independent EV repair shops, but you are right that there are not many.
lazide
a day ago
Most people just see ‘old, meh’.
DanielHB
4 hours ago
I keep saying that in a few years cars will not be that much expensive than a big refrigerator...
It is scary that if cars get this cheap what it will mean environmentally (they physically can't last that long) and socially (everybody will be able to afford cars, flooding communities who are not built for it)
Fergusonb
a day ago
Agree with everything here.
Anecdote:
I purchased an EV this year, my highest priority was range per dollar, and the vehicle I selected happened to be new because of current market conditions. (Equinox EV for under 25k otd after incentives)
c-linkage
21 hours ago
That would make leasing the better option because at the end of the lease the leaser has to take them card back....no worry about selling something on one wants to buy.
the__alchemist
a day ago
Consequently, why are used sellers so out of touch, for cars or anything else? I love the idea of buying and selling used, but people ask too much relative to the new price.
nyrikki
a day ago
There are multiple reasons.
1) A large segment of people make purchase decisions based on payment schedules rather than the total cost of driving or even residual value.
2) Today 2/3 of car loans are are 72 months, meaning that even for lower depreciation rate cars, private sellers are often under water, and may not have the resources to pay off the gap with current market value. [0]
3) Banks have responded with 1/5 new-vehicle loans being 84 months or longer, adding to the problem
4) For around the ~40 years I have been paying attention, private sellers almost always think they should get the dealer price and not the private party price.
There are other reasons, but we are in a situation where it would be amazing of we avoid another 2009 like crash in the market.
[0] https://www.edmunds.com/industry/press/underwater-and-sinkin...
rootusrootus
a day ago
If they are out of touch, then the cars aren't selling, right? Because if they are selling for that price, then by definition you are out of touch and the sellers know what the market will bear.
AuryGlenz
a day ago
My friend told me that his in-laws absolutely refuse to buy a new car, as their whole lives they’ve been told it’s an awful deal. Instead, they’ll get something a couple of years old and save maybe a few thousand dollars on a $40,000 vehicle.
It drives him batty.
So, I’d say there’s a potential the used buyers are the ones out of touch, and that people like those in-laws probably aren’t buying EVs.
driverdan
9 minutes ago
Your in-laws are correct and your friend is wrong. Historically the largest depreciation hit on new cars is in the first few years. Getting a low mileage used car that's a few years old is typically the sweet spot for value. You have to price out new and used to understand where the best deals are but generally it's true.
That did go strange for a while during COVID but has mostly become true again.
rootusrootus
21 hours ago
I've told this story before, but I like telling it, so here goes.
I once went shopping for a Mustang Cobra, back when they were cool and I was young and into those kinds of cars. The local Ford dealer had their new car lot next door to the used lot, literally separated only by a driveway.
I went to look at the 2004 Cobras they had a half dozen of, and they were marked down (IIRC) $8000 off MSRP. I thought "Cool, the 04 is no different from the 03, so I wonder what I can get one of those on the used lot for." And walked over to look. The 03s were priced higher than the marked-down price on the 04s a couple hundred feet away. At the same dealer.
I brought it up with the used car manager, incredulous at what he was asking for the used ones. His response was "Yeah, go buy one of the new ones, these will sell just fine." I asked why and he said there is a whole class of buyer that won't even look at new cars. That the new car market and the used car markets are not in fact sharing the same space, even if it seems like it would make sense for people to cross-shop. So he priced his used cars at whatever the market would bear, which turned out to be higher than Ford would unload the new ones for.
Does this happen often? Perhaps not. But over the years I've bought new cars on several occasions where the used equivalent was going to save me a whopping $3-4K for a car that was two or three years older and with some miles. It did not make any financial sense whatsoever to buy the used one for such a small discount.
jgilias
18 hours ago
I was literally in this situation this year. My parents needed an upgrade, and as I was researching it, the 2 year old used cars were just 1-2k EUR cheaper than the same model new with a slight discount. Of course we got the new one, if only for having the full warranty period.
BeetleB
a day ago
> Instead, they’ll get something a couple of years old and save maybe a few thousand dollars on a $40,000 vehicle.
A used 2 year old Ioniq 5 is selling for about $15-20K less than MSRP.
Some years ago, a friend bought a 2 year old Forester - for a full $10K less than MSRP.
It's not a "few thousand dollars".
(Oh, and personally, if you buy a 2 year old car - you're paying way too much. 6-8 year old cars are a good value).
bhelkey
a day ago
>> people like those in-laws probably aren’t buying EVs.
> A used 2 year old Ioniq 5 is selling for about $15-20K less than MSRP...It's not a "few thousand dollars".
The Ioniq 5 is an electric vehicle. The whole point of this article is that EVs depreciate significantly faster than Internal Combustion Engine vehicles. A brand new ICE vehicle depreciates quickly but not to the point of losing 50% in 2 years.
>6-8 year old cars are a good value
Agree.
BeetleB
21 hours ago
I did point out another ICE car that lost $10K.
In general, particularly for higher priced cars, how many do you know that don't lose about $10K in value after 2-3 years?
potato3732842
a day ago
>It's not a "few thousand dollars".
It is if you're buying a 4Runner or top of the line diesel pickup or some other meme car that people buy because of how great the internet says it is.
But in the general case I agree with you.
mixmastamyk
a day ago
There was a big change in the used market after Covid, that may not have fully worked itself out yet.
the__alchemist
a day ago
Have you bought or sold used recently? You can find a fair price, but it's a big time commitment, and stressful.
brokencode
a day ago
Plenty of people must find this worthwhile, otherwise sellers wouldn’t be able to find buyers and they’d be forced to reduce price if they want to sell.
Plus, the listed price is often aspirational. Savvy buyers will typically negotiate the price down.
I have to admit that I’m not a savvy buyer and always buy new though. But I know people who do this very successfully.
fluoridation
21 hours ago
That's how it goes in my experience with the used market, for anything, really. People go online, browse around the listings to get a feel of the prices, and post a price based on that. That's a mistake. The prices that are easy to find and most common are for the items that aren't moving. When someone finally posts an item at a price that buyers are willing to pay it usually gets sold in a few days, if it's something in demand.
I've only ever found good deals on used stuff by pure chance or by watching the market over weeks. It takes both patience and decisiveness, otherwise someone else swoops in before you.
rootusrootus
21 hours ago
All of this is just a way of saying that the market does not agree with someone's personal opinion on value. "That's a mistake" sounds right but if the market is willing to pay, then was it really a mistake?
> I've only ever found good deals on used stuff by pure chance or by watching the market over weeks. It takes both patience and decisiveness, otherwise someone else swoops in before you.
That sounds like it is exactly how things are supposed to work. If the average price were a good deal, it would by definition not be a good deal. It should take some work or some waiting, if you want that price.
fluoridation
20 hours ago
>"That's a mistake" sounds right but if the market is willing to pay, then was it really a mistake?
But it's not willing to pay. That's my point. That's why those postings sit unsold.
>If the average price were a good deal, it would by definition not be a good deal.
Let me clarify: I mean "good deal" in comparison to just buying new. Take headphones, which is something I've bought used a few times. I found a pair of SHP9500s for like 20% of the price of new ones; they had some visible wear, but they weren't broken and they sounded perfect. That's what I'd call an excellent deal. Another time I found a pair of HE400ses for 60-70% of the price of new, and they looked mint. That's a good deal and how the used market should work. The buyer pays a little less with the risk that the item might have some latent defect that's building up, and the seller gets to recoup some of his money.
A bad deal is paying 90% for that same risk and uncertainty, which is what I see most often. Yeah, maybe the product is even verifiably in good condition, but at that point the difference is so small that why would someone even bother?
Marsymars
21 hours ago
I felt like my new factory order car buy recently was a big time commitment and stressful to get a fair price.
potato3732842
a day ago
>why are used sellers so out of touch
Math.
You don't see what sells because it's no longer on the market.
A vehicle that sells in 1mo is on the market 30x longer, seen by 30x more people, etc, etc, than one that sells in 1d and only takes 1/30th as many of them on the market to fill up your FBMP feed.
Now, not a lot of cars are priced to sell in 1d, but also 30d is a comically low upper bound as well. Adjust the numbers as you see fit.
kube-system
a day ago
Sellers might be out of touch with your sensibilities but they are not out of touch with their own market. Used sellers ask that much because buyers are willing to pay that much.
kemayo
a day ago
It's difficult to decouple your knowledge of how much you paid for something. Even if you intellectually know the fair market value of something is now 0.1x what you paid for it, it can still feel like you're just losing all that money by accepting that price.
nostrademons
a day ago
Yeah. This is called "anchoring" in behavioral economics research. People can't let go of the price they last paid for the good as the "correct" price, and so are reluctant to drop to the true market-clearing price.
This is also why cereal makers rely on shrinkflation to raise prices, and why home prices are sticky downwards, and why companies resort to layoffs rather than wage cuts. In an individual consumer's mind, prices should stay the same.
saltcured
21 hours ago
I think this is also a baby step away from one basis for hoarding behavior. The hoarder cannot see the many cases where the loss of value has already happened whether you retain the item or discard it. They think the full loss is realized the moment it is discarded.
jacquesm
a day ago
> You see this in computers, smartphones, TVs, and solar panels
3D printers!
PunchyHamster
a day ago
I think a lot of that is economies of scale. The parts needed are not cheap in small quantities, but we finally got to the point that they are popular enough that they are made en masse.
Yeah at the top end there is still a ton of progress, but on bottom end it just recently turned into commodity, to the point they are sold in more general stores.
jacquesm
21 hours ago
The bottom end are still incredibly impressive. For $200 you can buy something that just five years ago would have made for good science fiction.
aiauthoritydev
a day ago
> Instead of threatening to derail the EV transition, lack of resale value might be evidence of the EV transition
People buying new EVs might be bad for environment though.
organsnyder
a day ago
It's not like those used EVs are getting thrown away—they're just going further down-market than they otherwise would.
xp84
a day ago
yup. and there are a lot more people in America who can buy a 2-3-year-old $20,000 EV than the insane prices those cars were fetching when new!
jerlam
a day ago
Hopefully EVs are being purchased to replace existing ICE cars, in which case the falling price is a good thing since it makes them more available at lower price points. Replacing a car with one that is cheaper to run and produces less emissions is usually a good thing.
If people are buying (and storing, and fueling) EVs in addition to their collection of ICE cars, that's probably a separate issue about overconsumption.
nradov
18 hours ago
A significant fraction of consumers are going to purchase ICE cars (including hybrids) to replace EVs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/ev-owners-want-to-buy-gas-ca...
themafia
18 hours ago
> when you can get a new one that's twice as good for half the price?
That's the premise. Is that the actual reality?
woodpanel
3 hours ago
> Instead of threatening to derail the EV transition
Looks like the wish is your thought’s father.
Currently the transition of EVs is a transition of cars from long lasting, repairable items into throwaway e-waste (like TVs, computers and smartphones).
And somehow this is more eco-friendly of course.
Aloisius
a day ago
Is a new EV twice as good as a four year old one?
Does it go twice as fast? Does it have twice the range? Is it twice as comfortable? Is it twice as safe?
halfnormalform
21 hours ago
My data point: old Kona Electric vs new Ioniq 6. Acceleration is faster, but not twice as fast. It does charge 40-50% faster though, and that is life-changing. Not twice the range but 360 mi vs 220 mi is a huge improvement. More than twice as comfortable, and that’s switching from the top of the line to the base model. Mostly due to better climate controls and a huge amount of legroom. Both have 5 star Euro NCAP scores. But now the lane keep assist now works at any speed and there are more warnings about cars and other obstacles, so there’s a safety improvement. And it’s not twice the price: the MSRP was cheaper!
1970-01-01
21 hours ago
The value isn't there to justify double the price, but yes a new EV is gooder than an older EV in every single category.
thegreatpeter
a day ago
The new Model Y surely is safer, more comfortable and has a longer range and a better battery.
zvitiate
a day ago
Might is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your last sentence. I’m genuinely curious, what odds is this evidence of transition versus not?
quantumcotton
21 hours ago
I'm pretty sure it's a mixture between this and the fact that EVS don't really break down. You have the same amount of them for sale a few years later. Versus gas cars. You have half of them around being parted out. So they do go up in value oddly.
They've pretty much just saturated their own market. Everyone needs a car. Not everyone needs an EV. If you have a garage then yes it makes perfect sense to have an EV. But if you don't and you live in an apartment or you live in a shared house. It's not really going to work for you. People who have their own house don't want old cars. So they basically just have a bunch of older car sitting around that nobody really wants even though they technically do have better value. A $30,000 Tesla and a $30,000 BMW? You'd have to be biased to think that it makes logical sense for the BMW. Sure! It's 40. It's fun but the cost of maintenance. The reliability.... It's not really a family car in the same way. It appeals to more people, but it's not more logical. However, you don't need a garage to charge your BMW. I don't care how fast the car charges. I don't want to go to a charger. I've had my car for 4 years and I've only been to a supercharger twice.
But I fully understand why not everyone has them. Every time I pass by a mechanic shop an oil change place like gas station. I just think of how much wasted time that people use on their cars thinking that it's more convenient.
But but for them in fact it may actually be. Imagine sitting at a charger for 20 mins 2x a week if you drive a lot and use sentry.
nradov
19 hours ago
Actually EVs break down a lot, more so than ICE or hybrid cars. It turns out that having fewer moving parts doesn't compensate for incompetent engineering and shoddy manufacturing.
https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2025-us-vehi...
rswail
19 minutes ago
PHEVs break down more than full electric BEV or normal ICE vehicles.
Hybrids (ie not plug in) have the least defects, but basically equal to normal ICE vehicles.
But BEV is improving YoY relative to ICE.
jimt1234
a day ago
Exactly ^^^ This situation reminds me of the 90s with the PC market, where PCs were changing so fast, and getting cheaper every day - I think Weird Al put it best: "My new computer's got the clocks, it rocks / But it was obsolete before I opened the box".
thenobsta
a day ago
What a reference. Thanks for taking me back to the 90s. I have fond memories of memorizing Running with Scissors :)
Yeah, tech for this stuff is moving super fast. It's hard to know what will endure, what will be upgradeable, and what will be cast aside.
I recently bought a low mileage used EV for relatively cheap. I'm hoping I'll be able to drive the battery into the ground. Then I'm betting that, in 6-8(10?)yrs when I need a new one, there will be better battery chemistries so I can extend the car's life even further.
Eisenstein
a day ago
If that were true than the market would value used goods as essentially free, so there wouldn't be a reason to buy anything new. The reason there is not a huge used market for technology is because they are no longer supported or are deprecated on purpose by the producer.