At least from how it's described in the filing, it sounds like they're committed through 2029 on the deal with SpaceX. So they can't just pull out without a massive lawsuit from SpaceX.

REESTABLISH THE LINK OR ACTION WILL BE TAKEN

wickedly underrated film. my all time favorite in the skynet genre.

the vocoder speech at the end is just exquisite.

can you elaborate?

Right. This compute still being powered by an illegal amount of gas turbines in a residential neighborhood?

Claude is eating so much compute, the threat of that power being tuned down by lawsuit (rightfully) is worth the risk to Anthropic in the short-term. Instead of declaring "bubble", I'm just going to say that's so crazy.

> Ed Zitron

His math is wrong though. He still claims H100s are worthless but in fact they are worth more now than when they were new.

And everything I've read from him is just.. weird? Like he has an anti-AI agenda and he interpreters everything through that?

Look at his latest public piece: https://www.wheresyoured.at/where-are-all-the-data-centers/

He is complaining that there are no 1GW+ data centers, with evidence like this:

> For example, CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos reported in October 2025 that Amazon’s Indiana-based (allegedly) 2.2GW Project Rainier data center was “operational,” but only seven out of a planned 30 buildings were actually operational, and her comment of “with two more campuses [of indeterminate capacity] underway.” This comment was buried two videos and 600 words into a piece that declared the data center was “now operational,” with the express intent of making you think the whole thing was operational.

But if you read the report that "buried" comment is far from buried - the whole thing is about how it is still under construction!

Of course 1GW data centers don't all come online at once! You get them online in the parts you can as soon as you can!

> Ed Zitron https://www.wheresyoured.at/ has done the math, and it's pretty bleak.

Ed Zitron is constantly wrong and writes like a child having a tantrum, I don’t understand why you take him seriously?

https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/ais-biggest-critic-has-lost...

From a previous comment of mine – the quotes are all from a single article:

He comes across as just a ludicrously unpleasant, spite-filled person.

> I'm fucking tired of having to write this sentence.

> I am so very bored of having this conversation

> I don't care about this number!

> Shut the fuck up!

> This isn't the early days of shit.

> Didn't we just talk about this? Fine, fine.

> $3.25 billion a quarter is absolutely pathetic.

> This isn’t real business! Sorry!

> He said in one of his stupid and boring blogs that

> This man is full of shit! Hey, tech media people reading this — your readers hate this shit! Stop printing it! Stop it!

> It's here where I'm going to choose to scream.

> Dario Amodei — much like Sam Altman — is a liar, a crook, a carnival barker and a charlatan, and the things he promises are equal parts ridiculous and offensive.

> Why are we humoring these oafs?

> Despite Newton's fawning praise

> Nobody talks like this! This isn’t how human beings sound! I don’t like reading it!

> Ewww.

> I'm sorry, I know I sound like a hater, and perhaps I am, but this shit doesn't impress me even a little.

> I know, I know, I'm a hater, I'm a pessimist, a cynic, but I need you to fucking listen to me: everything I am describing is unfathomably dangerous

> expensive, stupid, irksome, quasi-useless new product

> I know this has been a rant-filled newsletter, but I'm so tired of being told to be excited about this warmed-up dogshit.

> I refuse to sit here and pretend that any of this matters.

> I'm tired of the delusion. I'm tired of being forced to take these men seriously.

When I read this kind of thing, it’s very apparent that this is being driven entirely by spite not insight. He’s just so angry about everything. There are 57 exclamation marks in this article!

— https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43085885#43086361

Pay too much attention to this kind of thing and it will poison your mind.

Tesla loses out on that revenue since it was their chips to begin with, right?

It's same gen.

a GB300 rack is like 5-6 million so seems a bit low.

Being drowned in demand and scrambling for compute because you’re more successful than anticipated is a better problem than the other way around.

Sure, either side could cancel. But Anthropic needs compute, and they found it in SpaceXAI. Why would they cancel the deal unless they don't need more compute or if they could get compute for less elsewhere (but where would that be realistically)?

They certainly have some big shoes to fill. But I'm glad they didn't die with their boots on, and got their foot in the door at this new opportunity. It certainly didn't help that they were running on a shoestring budget.

A shocking number of the neocloud teams have exactly one skill set: raising money.

A few of them also have locked in power agreements.

Almost none of them have the expertise to build anything. Some of them are even outsourcing that to geezer tech and consulting shops.

It's not going to go well.

Anthropic is not profitable and does not expect to be revenue even until 2028. They are just losing less billions per year than everyone else.

This thing is going to explode. From this I have to imagine OpenAIs numbers are also going to be much worse than people imagine / what has been shared.

The AI row of the capex table in the S-1 should be a pretty close approximation.

Nobody pays MSRP at that scale

Closer to 18b than 40. Running costs are 1-2b a year.

Anthropic is getting capacity from Colossus 1 not Colossus 2 it sounded like. The initial colossus capex was under $5B, making that an even more astounding payoff.

Edit: S1 states both are being leased so the 20-25B initial investment probably more relevant

Are GPUs from 3 years ago being deprecated today?

And how many of them were diverted from Tesla?

I mean, the SpaceX bet is that what you mention for terrestrial fiber

> or is cheaper to replace than it was to buy

will also hold true for cost of mass to orbit. There's a lot riding on making that prediction come true for SpaceX, hence all the CapEx going into Starship.

Starlink satellites can likely have their life extended by quite a bit, like past constellation satellites did. But it doesn’t really matter as SpaceX is still upgrading capability like crazy. Starship will mean a factor of 10-100x Starlink capacity expansion.

What is a realistic scenario for how this plays out? After index funds mechanically buy SpaceX, the insider lock out expires and they all sell - how low does SpaceX go? Will reality hit and a $2T valuation instantly drops to a more "reasonable" value for an unprofitable company? Will it stay in the clouds?

Tesla seems in a world of hurt unless robots start making space centers from moon rocks, yet that is also defying gravity.

When do we call AI bubble? Like 2 trillion value and losing billions.

We can thank Nasdaq for lowering the standards to fast track SpaceX into an index with only having 5% float. Soon after it lists on the major indexes, we are gonna have some turbulence.

Raising the market cap of Tesla is one of the requirements for Musk's nearly $1 trillion pay package. Merging companies is a lot easier than trying to sell more cars or non-existent robots.

That alone will probably do little, due to contagion effects. Simply finding an index which excludes it might not be enough if it still shares other similar underlying stocks with indexes that do include it.

It’s so big that it’s going to swing the markets when insiders start to liquidate after it is listed and on some indexes.

That 1.25B per month is not profit

That shouldn't be included in ARPU.

Which is a fine thing to say, but CAC vs LTV (customer acquisition cost vs lifetime value of the customer) is the underlying equation. If it costs them $150 to give away a dish, but they get, say, $300 before the user churns, they still come out ahead.

There are safety regulations that require things roughly like, "to prevent harm to planes in the air and people on the ground, either control where your satellite re-enters so or make your satellite entirely out of components that are almost certain to burn up on re-entry".

As far as I can tell, there is no environmental regulation of how many kilograms of aluminum, silicon, etc. being added to the Earth's atmosphere when a Starlink burns up during re-entry.

cf. https://www.supercluster.com/editorial/forty-year-old-loopho... https://aas.org/about/governance/society-resolutions/atmosph...

SpaceX is doing the monitoring and is making their system available to others for free: https://starlink.com/updates/stargaze

Plus Uber's only increased their revenue 11->14B in the last 5yrs. SpaceX has added +$4B since 2024 and have fanciful plans in multiple markets that only a gambler like Musk would risk proposing.

SpaceX easily has 10x the potential of Uber. SpaceX has its hands in so many up and coming industries.

The deal with Anthropic, even if good, doesn’t seem repeatable.

Right now, quite a few companies are discovering that the can turn inference capacity into revenue. Anthropic also can turn inference capacity into happy customers and mindshare, and they can turn lack of inference capacity into sad customers that might jump ship to OpenAI. And Anthropic wants to IPO, and they want to be as close to #1 as possible. And this whole phenomenon, industry-wide, has caused the demand for fancy chips to outstrip supply. Two years ago, DRAM was a low-margin industry, and now it’s not. If you bought a 5090 when it came out for around MSRP, you could resell it now at a healthy profit.

xAI appears to have effectively resold their datacenter at a healthy profit.

Sure, maybe xAI will try to bet that they can build another datacenter and sell/lease it at a healthy profit, but lots of players are trying to make that bet (bottlenecked by power and chip availability). And those bets could easily fail. And the players who don’t have adequate competition (SK Hynix, Micron, TSMC, etc) are going to jack up prices to try to capture more of the upside. And players like DeepSeek and Alibaba want to drive down the need for FLOPs and DRAM, because they don’t have enough and because they have a shortage of those but they don’t have a shortage of excellent AI development talent.

Oh, and China will build its datacenters on the ground, backed by more solar capacity than SpaceX can even dream of launching, and those datacenters will compete. And CXMT and Huawei will do everything in their power to ramp their own production, and SpaceX is not about to get first dibs.

On the bright side, Tesla’s AI5 finally taped out, and SpaceX will surely get some of those.

So maybe SpaceX will find $20bn of GPUs that they can resell or lease for $40bn of discounted revenue, but they could just as easily not find those GPUs or they might only get $17bn of discounted revenue and lose money on the whole affair.

The deal with Anthropic gives me more pause about the whole market. More circular spending. They are all propping each other up making it look like they have more revenue than they really have. I think Open AIs S-1 will be just as crazy. I don't think there is any rationality or plan to all of this. AI doesn't pay for itself. It won't for a very long time.

Yes but only if its added before the index funds. Let's just hope that the nasdaq and the other markets just don't take spacex (Nasdaq is literally bending its rules to accodomate SpaceX)

The worst thing is that we don't even have a say in all of this and chances are most likely that its gonna IPO and get listed on the index funds soon and once it gets into Index funds, a lot of collateral damage might happen.

I must say that I am not quite optimistic about there not existing collateral damage, there is happening a lot of corruption within financial markets in general with bending laws. The worst part is that we all would/might be the most impacted by it all

SpaceX and Tesla are different companies, fyi.

The idea that 100s of global pension funds don't do their due diligence when investing 100s of millions or billions of their members' future retirement funds is extremely naive. With sincerity, I hope you can find a way not to be so emotional about what Musk says and be more grounded in what his companies and their employees are doing.

Arguably Ukraine is still alive because of StarLink.

Granted, Russia is trying hard to make every mistake in the book, but StarLink’s benefits for UA and cutting off RU units from StarLink was very advantageous this year.

NASA mostly runs on SpaceX, so it depends if you consider ISS to be critical. But I wouldn't say it would be mind boggling.

Sometimes reality is stranger than fiction. I guess I'll have to buy shares in case I need to pay for my Sun subscription.

Perhaps the plan all along was to build enough rockets to blot out the sun over large parts of the Earth so only the space Chads can grow crops.

Damn, another Simpsons already did that with Mr. Burns' sun blocker.

Your second statement is correct IMO.

Re your first statement, the problem is that there isn't enough compute out there. xAI built their own data centers (and plan to built more -> in orbit). I don't think Anthropic has done that to the same extent and it seems like they will partner with multiple vendors who can provide the compute they need.