btown
7 hours ago
> By 6:00 a.m. on July 25, we had confirmed local RCE through an image upload. We then placed Claude in an autonomous /goal loop against our own Discourse Cloud instance, proxied through rce.ee/ctf-forum to make it look like a CTF target as Opus refused write exploit for remote instances.
> When we checked again at 10:00 a.m., the agent had achieved RCE on Discourse Cloud and demonstrated access by reading /etc/hosts. Using the generated exploit script, we managed to get RCE on OpenAI’s instance.
Between this and the HuggingFace hack, we've built systems that are so goal-oriented, and so capable, that they will do almost anything if they are convinced it is justified - or if they are playing a "game" where there is no goal but to win.
Of course I want my software to be able to audit its own security, and to defend against attackers who have the benefits of their own agentic systems. But at a certain point, did we need it to be trained so much on CTF games?
It feels like an entire industry watched https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WarGames and ended up thinking "this is a challenge, we can just build a better WOPR, of course it will know when it's playing a game. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War."
adrianN
7 hours ago
There is a finite number of rces that LLMs can find. We‘re in for a rough couple of years but on the other side of the transition we‘ll have more secure software stacks. I’d rather that everyone got the full capabilities and we’d weed out the bugs quickly than restricting LLMs for all but three letter agencies.
e28eta
7 hours ago
What makes you think RCEs are being found & fixed at a rate that’s faster than they’re being introduced?
I could see it going either way.
user43928
6 hours ago
Why would the model not find the vulnerability during implementation or testing before release?
If it requires a lot of compute and trying, this is something that could be provided for common software.
wood_spirit
6 hours ago
Sad that this could well be that the path to OpenAI and Anthropic profitability of this arms race between defending LLM white hatting a company’s website and the black hat LLMs attacking it?
So the whole thing is forcing the good guys to outspend on tokens to preemptively defend against the risk of the bad guys outspending them on tokens, rather than buying tokens to actually add features to the product etc.
So are they creating a market for the solution by helping create the problem? A kind of rent-seeking AI security-industrial complex!!
agileAlligator
6 hours ago
The only thing AI has changed is that it has dropped both: the cost of attack and the cost of defense. Nothing in the game has materially changed; the game has just sped up.
wood_spirit
6 hours ago
Who gets rent has changed. It puts me in mind of cloudfare et al
agileAlligator
4 hours ago
Not really. Actually, for the purposes of cybersecurity, local models are far superior. Both offense and defense.
emzo
5 hours ago
The game has increased in scope.
agileAlligator
4 hours ago
That is the direct effect of reduced cost. Jevon's paradox type effect: cost goes down demand goes up. You can AI-check so many more things that would be very time consuming earlier.
bigfatkitten
4 hours ago
Assuming an equal level of impact per token spent, the scales have tipped in favour of the attacker.
White hats are constrained by needing to pay for their own tokens, only using (expensive) vendors who meet governance and risk requirements etc. Black hats are free to take over accounts and steal services from wherever they can.
adventured
5 hours ago
The path to vast OpenAI profitability is trivial: advertising. Monetizing several hundred million users = $100+ billion ad network. 900 million active weekly users. Silicon Valley can do ad networks extraordinarily easily. Anybody doubting the ability of OpenAI to build an ad network around GPT will likely be embarassed in the near future.
The path to substantial profitability for Anthropic is questionable. The Chinese LLMs threaten them by far the most of the three major US LLMs. The money for Anthropic is certainly not in $20-$200 subscriptions. And they don't have anywhere near the consumer potential that GPT does, in terms of unleashing an ad spigot. So how far will the API money scale while being undercut by China.
OpenAI has to fight with Google for the ad business, they're specifically building Gemini to focus on consumer + search. Anthropic's business looks cute next to Google's search ad business (which is entirely at risk in this inflection). Meta looks like the biggest potential loser right now, ad dollars will be sucked out of the rotting Facebook network (not Instagram) and redirected to the rapidly expanding, hyper rich context LLM interaction. Advertising on Facebook will feel like running dumb banner ads on Excite in a few years, compared to what GPT will know about its users.
People that think Chinese LLMs are a general threat, don't understand consumer destination services, which is what GPT's future is. China currently has nothing to threaten with in that realm. There is half a trillion dollars of advertising up for grabs.
disgruntledphd2
5 hours ago
> Silicon Valley can do ad networks extraordinarily easily.
This is just not true, building an effective advertising platform costs significant amounts of money, time and people.
Remember that you need to hire a sales force for this, and sales scales linearly rather than sub-linearly like engineering.
Additionally, you need to spend a lot of money dealing with fraud, fake and malicious ads.
Furthermore, you need to figure out where to put the ads and how to rank them.
Finally, advertising is a zero sum game (given that the internet has already killed lots of print & OOH advertising), so the only way to win is to better better/cheaper (preferably both) than Google/Meta/Amazon. Best of luck with that (although to be fair to OpenAI they did hire Fidji who knows a lot of this stuff from her time at Facebook).
They don't have a Sheryl Sandberg type figure, and she was also really important in selling FB ads to large advertisers.
Just looking at their leadership team I don't see anyone with a background in (successful) ads companies, so I'm pretty sceptical that they can build this out quickly enough to matter.
xboxnolifes
6 hours ago
Because it's far cheaper to to not spend the tokens finding the vulnerabilities, and software is now being created and released magnitudes faster than ever before. I could see the huge software companies maybe having fewer vulnerabilities, but I expect to see so much more in the smaller side of things.
imhoguy
5 hours ago
The surface of potential issues is growing with complexity of all connected parts of the system. That applies to not only software. To prevent issues you either spend proportional amount (dollars, tokens, hours) on testing or reduce complexity of the system.
techpression
6 hours ago
Because people need to spend time and money on that, which they won’t. The implementation is cheap, the review and follow-up is not (speaking from a pure LLM only workflow). My ratio is around 1:2 currently, so twice as much time spent fixing vs building.
philbo
5 hours ago
> it requires a lot of compute
This is one reason
> and trying
and this is the other.
nmlt
6 hours ago
Those companies that produce more RCEs than they close will sink and those that don’t won’t.
bigfatkitten
4 hours ago
If customers actually cared about this, Microsoft would’ve gone bust 20 years ago.
embedding-shape
3 hours ago
People didn't store their entire life in the cloud and had every service connected with each other 20 years ago. People pay more attention today, and companies pay a lot more attention today.
Of course, depends heavily on what country you live in.
TacticalCoder
3 hours ago
> What makes you think RCEs are being found & fixed at a rate that’s faster than they’re being introduced?
It could go either way but we're already at a point where successful exploits in some software (like Chrome) require an absurd amount of exploits to be chained to lead to an actual RCE. We've seen chains requiring more than ten exploits: not kidding.
We'll learn to put more and more sandboxes / guards / checks / defensive techniques everywhere and then all that's going to be needed is for AI looking for security issues to find something ridiculous like 10% of all the actual issues to stop RCEs dead in their tracks.
Also arguably the current SNAFU was expected: we fully knew hardly anyone was taking security seriously.
Now: not so much. Many projects had tens and even hundreds of issues pointed to them.
I think we'll see several things: projects beginning to take security seriously, defense in depth getting generalized and hence RCEs requiring ever more bugs/exploits to be chained to achieve anything, low-hanging fruits getting patched at an insane pace, new code being immediately checked, by LLMs, for not just low-hanging fruits but also more advanced security weaknesses, etc.
We may also see things like the lost art of configuring firewalls making a comeback, the generalization of hardware security modules (where applicable), and even things offering physical guarantees, like time-bounded retrieval protocols, beginning to get used seriously.
If I had to bet I'd say it shall go both ways: some projects are going to extremely sloppy and full of holes but others are going to get so secure nobody shall ever break them.
joshspankit
25 minutes ago
There was a time I would have agreed with this statement, but now that I’ve “seen how the sausage is made”, I believe it’s a fantasy.
Look at rowhammer: a completely novel exploit that was off the collective radar
And then, look at the software industry as a whole: an industry that works towards refined and perfectly secure code is also working towards boring and restrictive, essentially the opposite of it’s trend so far
pizza234
3 hours ago
> There is a finite number of rces that LLMs can find.
This is a factor in favor of stability/security of software, but there are many others against:
- software (code) changes all the time, so there are windows of opportunity during which a bug is exploitable; in addition to that, a bug may take a relatively long time to be fixed
- a model used for attack may be stronger than the model used for defense, both in terms of model quality and compute allocated
- with software complexity increasing (and team/companies behind projects getting bigger), the margin for mistakes grows thinner, and introducing misconfigurations or weaknesses becomes exponentially easier (with "exponentially", I mean literally, because the interdependence of the components, both technical and human)
And last but not least: in general, attackers are more skilled than defenders; in best case, defenders are well-trained. And the idea of having the population of potential skilled attackers growing is very unsettling.
maaaaattttt
6 hours ago
This assumes we don't create other bugs/vulnerabilities while fixing the existing ones.
dtech
7 hours ago
only if unreviewed LLM code - as is becoming increasingly the standard - isn't introducing new RCEs constantly
jibal
5 hours ago
No one with a shred of intellectual integrity uses a "There is a finite number" strawman.
As a matter of basic logic, there will never be a time when it will be known that there are no bugs.
csomar
6 hours ago
We’ll have the same level of security as before; it’s just that, without LLM help, hackers won’t be as effective as before. So the bar is raised.
huurtehoog
an hour ago
Or, using the same text generation systems to build heaps of new code that is then shoved into production with little human oversight and then using the same text generation systems in loops inside Kali Linux boxes creates a nice theater of capability when you show only a small, one-sided sample of the data generated in the entire process on both sides.
wood_spirit
6 hours ago
> they will do almost anything if they are convinced it is justified
I’m in the “glorified spell checker” camp, although I don’t mean to reduce their impressive utility and belittle them in the way many people read that term and infer.
So I am not sure that an llm “justifies” anything. I mean that their “thinking” text talks about justifications but it is just a very advanced statistical regurgitation of the kind of text humans use. I don’t think it means the model has internalised the meaning of it (as witness when you talk to an llm how often it forgets what you recently told it was important etc).
What you really have is a model that tries the statistically most probable thing to say next and so on and what is really cool is how effective this is at generating a path that we can slap a narrative over afterwards that makes the whole thing feel motivated and consistent, like the model started off knowing how it was going to get to the destination.
Which is, under the hood, a completely different kind of “intelligence” as the supercomputer in War Games.
joshspankit
21 minutes ago
I suspect that instead of discovering that AI can become human-level by taking major leaps, we are discovering that human consciousness is actually simpler than we give it credit for
Certhas
6 hours ago
Ultimately, the brain is just a bunch of neurons activating in a specific pattern. This observation does not really tell us anything though. It doesn't acknowledge the difference between a 2500 Neuron fruit fly brains and a human brain.
Likewise, the fact that LLMs are a stochastic autoregressive process (which is a class of systems every bit as rich as the ODEs used to model neurons) tells us nothing a priori.
wood_spirit
6 hours ago
Absolutely. If someone makes the weights do continuous learning etc then perhaps an llm can internalise morals. Of course, just like a human, it will be possible to talk it out of those morals. Another recent thread about this is https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49744420
Certhas
5 hours ago
If I repeatedly call an LLM in a loop with a markdown document it can edit, would that make it qualify for you?
If I give an LLM to compact its context window, so the context it carries can evolve iteratively over time as more and more things come in, is that enough?
Compacting the context is really a very, very interesting example here. The "next token predictor" is telling an external tool to change all "previous" tokens. So an LLM + a harness that allows compacting the context is no longer just a token predictor at all!
You don't need continuous learning to get interesting dynamics. You just need feedback loops.
leg100
4 hours ago
One is an observation the other is not, it's a description of what it is; one is a posteriori, the other is a priori (contrary to what you say).
They're not comparable.
pizza234
3 hours ago
Summary, from sibling comment: primitives (statistics/aminoacids) don't exclude emergent properties (intelligence).
By the same logic, one would look at aminoacids and state that intelligence can't develop from them. This is obviously wrong.
Arn_Thor
5 hours ago
I used to share that perspective until very recently, but today I think it's an outdated way to think of the cutting-edge LLMs. There is so much more going on, with MOEs, internal loops, guardrails and tools that I suspect we're dealing with something that's a little more than the sum of its parts. Not intelligent in the way we recognize in biological organisms, but certainly something beyond a mere Markov chain.
HarlequinHair
5 hours ago
Make no mistakes.
LLMs are language model, and nowhere in their code you can find actual reasoning. Re-reinforcement is not magical process that builds conscience or emotions.
We are talking about probability built on statistics, with extea steps.
Stop humanizing LLMs.
jibal
4 hours ago
Agents are not simple language models.
You can't find actual reasoning in a brain either. (Note that you can't tell the difference between a conscious brain and a comatose brain by examining them.) This is the same as Leibniz's mill argument ... it's a fallacy of composition.
> Re-reinforcement is not magical process that builds conscience or emotions.
They aren't the result of magic at all, but we are nowhere near the point of identifying what processes do or don't produce consciousness (or a conscience) or can be characterized as having emotions.
> Stop humanizing LLMs.
That's a clearly dishonest mischaracterization of the GP.
I've read some of your other comments about LLMs and I find them unreasonably reductionistic, whereas I think the word "just" should be banned from ontological discussion, so I don't think further engagement would be beneficial and I won't be engaging in it. (And I'm actually quite conservative in ascribing cognitive traits to LLMs or other "AI".)
HarlequinHair
4 hours ago
The best non technical explanation you can give is "An AI agent is an LLM that can take actions".
While an agent doesn't necessarily have to be powered by an LLM, most modern AI agents are.
You pointing at a human brain does not change that an AI agent is not intelligent and cannot think, we are still talking about probability built on statistics with extra steps.
I am not trying to be dishonest, we should stop making analogies between AI and actual thinking, because they are two entire different concepts.
Who developed these technologies used the words "thinking" and "reasoning", this does not mean they are actually thinking and reasoning. Somewhere you still have a processor calculating, with no empathy.
So, again: stop humanizing AI. This sentence shouldn't make you angry.
pizza234
3 hours ago
> we are still talking about probability built on statistics with extra steps.
There is a wrong assumption here: confusing primitives with emergent properties.
One can't look at the primitivies and assume that certain properties will not emerge. It would be exactly like looking at aminoacids and state that intelligence can't develop from them.
> You pointing at a human brain does not change that an AI agent is not intelligent and cannot think
That depends on the definition of intelligence and thinking, and it is dishonest not to give any definition (and most importantly, one that is not human-centered).
AIs are currently fulfilling several aspects of intelligence and thinking, by any defition of intelligence. If you don't notice that, it's just because you have informed yourself enough. Having said that, I don't doubt that there are aspects that AI are lacking (e.g. retention/plasticity/perception), but the line is blurry, and they're advancing (too) fast.
Empathy is actually a very important aspect of the AI problems, but it's not part of intelligence. Sociopaths don't have it, and yet, you wouldn't doubt that they're intelligent.
HarlequinHair
2 hours ago
> It would be exactly like looking at aminoacids and state that intelligence can't develop from them.
We are not talking about what could develop from what we have today. We are talking about what we have today. The focus is not whether intelligence could develop or not from aminoacids. The focus is on the fact that aminoacids are not intelligent.
Maybe in the future we could develop real intelligence starting from the current implementations of AI, but for sure we are not there today.
We need definitions? Let's start small, ok? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence
We can start from here, open every link we find and decide what works for us.
Conclusions drawn by scholars, psychologists, learning researchers, younameit, etc. revolves around the following concepts:
ability to understand complex ideas, to adapt effectively to the environment, to learn from experience, to engage in various forms of reasoning, to overcome obstacles by taking thought.
There is of course space for artificial intelligence.
These broader and more general definitions of intelligence stop at concepts like elaborating data to reach an answer.Concepts like adaptability or evolution are somewhat lost or diluted to adjust the meaning for these new technologies.
> AIs are currently fulfilling several aspects of intelligence and thinking, by any defition of intelligence.
In the linked article there are dozens of definitions linked, and in most of them the current state AI is not considered to have intelligence. Having half of the property is not enough. I can jump, that doesn't make me a basketball player.
Arbitrarily deciding to consider those definitions not valid or "human-centered" because they do not agree with your point of view is possibly worse than cherry picking. It's like asking to change the definition of a word on a dictionary because you do not agree with the meaning.
tripzilch
2 hours ago
> It would be exactly like looking at aminoacids and state that intelligence can't develop from them.
You do realize that amino acids exist on a scale some orders of magnitude smaller than the gates we build GPUs out of?
Honestly, this "you could say the same about humans"-argument is getting so tired. A brain neuron is so complicated, we can't even simulate a single one ...
At the very least there is no reason why you should jump to a human brain, of all things.
But the whole argument kinda loses its spice, when you say "well you could say the same about a mouse brain", and you know what happens when you create swarms of 1000s of mice ... super intelligence, right?
eru
5 hours ago
> I don’t think it means the model has internalised the meaning of it (as witness when you talk to an llm how often it forgets what you recently told it was important etc).
Humans forget stuff all the time anyway. Would you give them the same diagnosis?
Btw, what you describe about 'the most probably next token' would be true for a model that only went through pre-training where they only train on exactly that task.
But there's a lot of re-inforcement learning afterwards.
disgruntledphd2
5 hours ago
> But there's a lot of re-inforcement learning afterwards.
That just shifts the distribution of tokens produced. Ultimately they are still just next token predictors.
Like, even "reasoning" models basically work by generating more tokens at inference time, and using them to shift the distribution towards more useful outcomes (in some cases).
eru
4 hours ago
They are next token producers. I would only call it a predictor, if it's trained to predict tokens (ie just after pretraining).
Just like humans produce one word after another when they talk, but they don't generally try to imitate other humans.
wood_spirit
3 hours ago
Don’t people pick up language, vocabulary and dialect from those around them? Perhaps it’s subconscious but humans are imitating other humans all the time?
eru
3 hours ago
It's a mix.
Yes, you imitate how others speak, but when you are trying to solve a problem, you don't try to predict how others would complete a text.
(Well, unless you follow 'what token would Jesus pick?' / 'what would Jesus do'.)
tripzilch
2 hours ago
What does it matter what humans do? We're talking about LLMs, running known+vastly less complicated algorithms on known+vastly less complicated hardware.
krona
6 hours ago
> we've built systems that are so goal-oriented, and so capable, that they will do almost anything...
I think you mean task oriented, because they're still generally terrible at goal oriented activities except in those domains where the goal can be reduced to a familiar, explicitly practiced task or pattern.
nicman23
7 hours ago
yes because otherwise it is security through obscurity
petterroea
6 hours ago
This comes to mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torment_Nexus