cortic
7 hours ago
Taxi Drivers: The mean age at death is approximately 67.8 years.
General Population: in the same dataset, life expectancy averaged 74 years.
The average age at which patients are typically diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease is 79.
People in these jobs don't live long enough on average to get diagnosed, at the same rate. The same effect will happen in any job that lowers your life expectancy.
xvedejas
3 hours ago
And how would you control for the causal possibility that those who will eventually develop Alzheimer's early on might tend to have undetectable memory issues that prevent them from becoming taxi drivers in the first place? You can't control for profession, since that's behind the very claim itself.
cortic
3 hours ago
Its even worse than that, i can imagine people with undiagnosed early Alzheimer's self selecting for car accidents and cardiac issues through additional stress of mental fatigue while their brain tried to compensate for loss of function.
So you have people self selecting out of the profession, self selecting for early death within the profession, and on top of that, a general life expectancy discrepancy that is near impossible to adjust for.
boelboel
3 hours ago
This is mentioned in the article as well.
harrall
3 hours ago
The study accounts for that.
Delay your aging by using your brain a fuck ton, all the time, learning brand new things nowhere near anything you already know.
hotstickyballs
an hour ago
Collecting a bunch of covariates is never a substitute for recognizing that you can't force people to be taxi drivers for life.
specproc
4 hours ago
Studies typically use regression to account for stuff like that. CBA to look at the article, but I bet any money that's controlled for.
vlovich123
4 hours ago
> After adjusting for age, sex, race, ethnicity and education, roughly 1 in 100 taxi and ambulance drivers died of Alzheimer’s, compared with 1 in 60 people overall.
So no indication they accounted for the expected lifespan of the profession.
danw1979
3 hours ago
Adjusting for age seems like an indication to me
vlovich123
2 hours ago
It’s insufficient. For example, the people who develop Alzheimer’s may for whatever reason may be less likely to survive the profession where Alzheimer’s is the cause of death (eg getting into a fatal car accident where undiagnosed early onset is the problem). Bus drivers typically drive the same route over and over and probably have safer trips overall than taxi and ambulance drivers.
It’s a plausible hypothesis but it’s really really hard to tease things out and controlling for age is the obvious thing but that doesn’t get you the conclusive result you think it does.
_kulang
3 hours ago
Adjusting for sample/population age is the simplest interpretation of that
j45
3 hours ago
Seems like a fair point.
rf15
4 hours ago
> CBA to look at the article
then don't post
specproc
an hour ago
Mate, you ever read a scientific paper? You dig regression? Did you read TFA yourself? Was I wrong?
christophilus
43 minutes ago
Yep. Free solo climbers also rarely die of Alzheimer’s.
glitchc
6 hours ago
They are likely studying individuals that retired without getting fatally stabbed or shot on the job.
stackskipton
6 hours ago
It's not violence from the job but their job was generally bad for their health in other ways. Sitting all day without getting up and driving around with windows down getting all this UV.
Also, older ones were exposed to a ton of cigarette smoke.
minraws
6 hours ago
Also road accidents.
boelboel
3 hours ago
I could imagine taxi drivers have fewer fatal/grave road accidents than the average person or at most slightly more. They tend to drive in cities, are more trained, can't drink or do drugs on the job. For London only 1 taxi driver has died in a traffic accident since 2020.
minraws
2 hours ago
If you drive more you are more likely to be in an accident, that's just how roads and accidents work.
Sure they might be better and per unit of time they drive they must have miniscule amount of accidents.
But if there's a 0.001% chance per hour driven, then over enough hours a few accidents are inevitable.
boelboel
2 hours ago
They don't just add more hours of driving they replace a small amount of risky hours for a lot of hours of low risk if they change location/job.
minraws
2 hours ago
Also Drivers are generally less likely to die in accidents in urban areas, on high ways it's different.
Pedestrians are a lot more at risk. So that's unsurprising that annually 1/2 taxi driver might be fatally injured in one.
But I would assume the ratio of other drivers to taxi drivers would be high enough that this number should be zero as well.
bastawhiz
2 hours ago
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that not even a double digit percentage of taxi drivers' careers are ended due to violent attacks. Taxi driver doesn't even appear in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics top 20 most dangerous jobs.
markdown
3 hours ago
That's like, almost all of them.
mito88
3 hours ago
survivorship bias
Barrin92
6 hours ago
As the paper points out that's accounted for in the analysis, because shockingly enough to most internet commentators researchers know that they need to control for confounding variables
jrflo
6 hours ago
Always insane to me how people will just read the headline of an article and point out "flaws" based on what they assume the article says
cromka
5 hours ago
People jump the gun to show their perceived intellectual superiority. Typically same kind of people are last to admit of a mistake.
usef-
an hour ago
And then their comment also reliably becomes the top-voted comment in the post
Melatonic
2 hours ago
You actually read the link ?
Nasrudith
3 hours ago
They got trained to said assumptions by bad sensationalist 'science journalism'. Remember how power lines caused brain damage in children? Not through the magnetic fields or anything like that, but the lowered property values.
fsckboy
26 minutes ago
>People in these jobs don't live long enough on average to get diagnosed
not to mention the other devil in these studies: some professions are statistically going to have the lowest rate of every possible disease. you can't just cherrypick outliers and declare "causal!"
nephihaha
an hour ago
>Taxi Drivers: The mean age at death is approximately 67.8 years.
Where? What country/ies?
ch4s3
16 minutes ago
In the US, but you’d likely see a similar effect in other places. Taxi drivers are highly sedentary and occupationally exposed to a lot more road pollution than most jobs.
cromka
5 hours ago
" (...) After adjusting for _age_, sex, race, ethnicity and education, roughly 1 in 100 taxi and ambulance drivers died of Alzheimer’s, compared with 1 in 60 people overall."
dinfinity
5 hours ago
Yep.
"For each occupation, we first calculated the percentage of deaths due to Alzheimer’s disease and the mean age at death in years (ie, average life expectancy). We plotted the association between these two variables, with each observation reflecting a single occupation. The purpose of this analysis was to illustrate the need to account for the person’s age at death since the risk of Alzheimer’s disease rises with age and therefore Alzheimer’s mortality would naturally be lower in occupations with a lower life expectancy."
TacticalCoder
6 hours ago
That's very interesting but why do taxi drivers have a job that lowers life expectancy? Is it because they're sitting too much? Or because they're inhaling CO from cars too much? Or staying inside (the car) too much? Or is it just stressful?
For from the look of it it doesn't look like an exceptionally hard job (btw a brother of mine did years of "VTC": "Vehicule de Tourisme avec Chauffeur", basically high-end taxis without the "taxi" logo).
xhevahir
an hour ago
I did it, briefly, twenty-some years ago. Lousy job—sitting all day, irregular pay, danger, nasty fares, drunk fares, belligerent fares, fares who seem to have nothing better to do with their days than to find ways to cheat a driver. But the thing that really sucks is the hours: shifts are twelve hours long, either ending or beginning at 3:00am, and because your rental for the cab is highest at the beginning of your work week, descending every successive day (free on day seven), the compensation is structured so that you're making good money only by working a ton of hours.
id
6 hours ago
Because it doesn't pay very well. Being affluent increases life expectancy.
inglor_cz
4 hours ago
1. They are hardly in the bottom quintile, where the income effect is large enough that it could actually shave 7 years off their life. I'd expect nightly work, irregular sleep patterns, too much fast food and maybe a higher frequency of smoking to do their part.
2. The original study didn't just study taxi drivers, but also ambulance drivers. I doubt that their life expectancy is that much lower.
coldtea
5 hours ago
>For from the look of it it doesn't look like an exceptionally hard job
Define "hard job". Carrying heavy objects?
apothegm
2 hours ago
It’s a very sedentary job, pretty much by definition.
wilburx3
6 hours ago
Getting stabbed in the neck by filthy street urchins.
coldtea
5 hours ago
Ah, the typical cheap HN reaction to a paper, along with "correlation is not causation", and as usual, for things already factored in into it.
brandonmenc
2 hours ago
Hilarious, because accounting for this stuff is drilled into your head when you study the softer sciences (like psychology) even as an undergrad.
mr_mitm
4 hours ago
Next up: "I didn't do a statistical analysis but the sample size seems small"
heckelson
2 hours ago
... in mice!
nuxi
6 hours ago
De Niro is 82, no Alzheimer's. /s
sillyfluke
4 hours ago
He was method acting, so I'll allow it.