> it's less clear why those are so much more expensive now.

It's basically, because everything else has gotten more expensive. Labor + fuel + wear and tear on equipment + raw materials.

Inflation of a single thing, will have effects on anything down stream of that thing.

And then there is the "greed" aspect, though overstated, where a company will see that costs have gone up in other sectors, so they raise their accordingly. This has been claimed, but I'm not sure how much it actually happens.

For lumber, data at [1] indicates much volatility in North American lumber prices from January 2023 to February 2026. Trough-to-peak prices for 2023, 2024 and 2025 have been over 30% across a given year. The main difference for 2026 so far is the stability of prices which have remain peaked for half a year.

Now is the perfect time for someone being overly dramatic to say "In the 2 years since July 2024, lumber prices have increased 47%, significantly higher than inflation".

But someone else could also say "Lumber prices are the same as July 2025 even though inflation has risen" or "Lumber prices are up just 10% in the 3 years since July 2023, lower than the rate of inflation across these 3 years".

[1] https://madisonsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/IndexG...

Generalized inflation affects everything. Energy prices have gone up, labor prices have gone up.

The people who sell the barbed wire and wooden posts presumably like to be able to eat, so they need to raise their prices to be able to afford groceries, etc.

At the beginning of the pandemic all the mills cut production anticipating economic collapse that didn’t come. Prices spiked on high demand and low production.

Mills did ramp back up, but it’s unclear to me if they used it as a chance to do so slowly/preserve margins. Lumber never got close to pre-pandemic levels.

Tariffs probably also play a role here. About a quarter of US lumber comes from Canada, and barbed wire is just steel with a little bit of processing.

For products with little value add there’s not anywhere for the tax to be absorbed, and no real way for domestic producers to quickly scale up, even if they wanted to.

Logistics and labor.

People under-estimate the cost of logistics and transport. Every inch of travel for any input, component, or the final product has to be paid; and even a wooden fencepost typically moves between at least 5 different locations before reaching retail.

Let's use wooden posts as an example:

  1. Forest. Trees are cut down into logs, and then transported to...
  2. Lumbermill. Logs are cut to size, and then transported to...
  3. Treatment plant. Without it, your fencepost won't last for every long, and then transported to...
  4. Distributor location. And then transported to...
  5. Store (e.g. Home Depot or whatever). And then you pick it up, or get it delivered to you.

I work with contractors and my family own a GC company. After Covid, construction material prices increased a lot due to multiple reasons like supply chain issues, and high demand from the housing boom. Lumber, fencing materials, and steel products were all affected. Although some prices have go down from their peaks, many never returned to pre-2020 levels, so products like fence posts and barbed wire are still expensive.

Tariffs I'm guessing. A fencepost in Canada is CAD$8 so $6. A roll of barbwire is US$70.

See UFA.com for Canadian prices. Keep in mind, there's a lot of variance in what people prefer to use, I'm just giving what I've always used and while prices have gone up, it sure hasn't gone up 2.5X here.

I am starting to think that there might be lot less competition on free markets than we think. And many markets tend to be established with big enough players. So they have stopped competing. If new entrants try to come well they might be undercut or simply bought out.

I assume the posts come from Canada, so are heavily tariffed. And the barbed wire might be produced in the US, but steel producers have raised their prices to match the level of tariffed imported goods.

Because people who sell wooden posts and barbed wire use pickup trucks, among other things that have gone up in price.

The pick-up thing is definitely true, and is also affecting the used market just as significantly

> but wooden posts and barbed wire

Less clear? Check your tariffs.

> but wooden posts and barbed wire, it's less clear why those are so much more expensive now.

I am seeing way more active paddocks of grazing cattle now as compared to a couple of years ago. The world is complex and there is never an expiation that can be given in a short soundbite, but the primary driver is no doubt that higher beef prices compelled more people to try and raise cattle, which resulted in them needing supplies required to raise cattle, and fences are one of those things you need to establish a secure paddock. The increase in demand for fencing supplies, without a corresponding increase in supply, necessities an increase in price.

Its meat processors having a monopoly.

According to the Economist magazine, the global problem is Chinese people eating more meat.

I don't remember when I first found out, but it blew my mind that sausages in the US are typically beef. Like, what? Sausages are like quintessentially pork products. Like the whole point is that you have a lot of off cuts of a cheap meat and you make sausages. Beef sausages? Yeah, that's like a step change in wealth, haha.

[dead]

From the article:

"Four companies - Tyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beef - control around 85% of American beef processing.

That high level of market concentration has drawn accusations of price-fixing, even from President Trump.

So you might expect that those four firms are currently making huge profits from high beef prices. Yet the opposite is happening.

Tyson, the biggest of the four, reported in May that it had lost more than $500m on beef in the first half of its financial year."

> In Arkansas 20% of people tested on a big free testing day were sensitized to the galactose-alpha-1,3-galactose molecule

What effect does this have on the person?

The article specifically talks about how some of those huge meatpacking companies are losing money on cattle. I don't think it's them to blame in totality here.

Beef is particularly egregious.

Poultry and even pork are about an order of magnitude more efficient.

It's interesting how long the market was wildly subsidized to hide the true cost of beef.

There’s research now that high density rotational grazing does the opposite.

A person eating one single hamburger uses more water than an entire year of LLM use for the same person. Yet we are very concerned about water use in data centers, but nobody cares about McDonalds.

All economic activity is a key driver to climate change. Why single out one thing? You're clearly imposing a self-serving moral judgement on other people.

Some of need to eat animal foods to live because genetics. I am of Sami heritage and I am tired of people telling me my genetics are the problem.

Maybe americans will start eating Philippino pag-pag? (recycled meat from landfills)

https://youtu.be/c7gDBVmgIRA

Probably, along with “meat fillers” and blends/grinds. And lots of ramen, which seems to have replaced old Depression-era standbys like hot dog casseroles and Campbell’s soup.

Even discount beef has worse discounts. My grocery store changed out the 50% discount stickers for meat at its sell-by date to 30%.

Same here, I haven't had beef in over 2 years now. Chicken and pork only now, mostly chicken, like 90% chicken is all I eat now. Insane.

The neat part is that there is no inflation here: you just substituted a worse product for a better one and our friends in the govt call it good.

Many people see this as a problem, but I see it as a normal function of market economies. Disruptions, changes in government policy, changes in consumer behavior, and more will over the long term just work themselves out. Of course some policies or seemingly "voluntary" policies may cause undue price increases, but even those work themselves out.

At the end of the day as more and more people want to consume the same products the prices for those are going to just go up.

When I see folks really hammering on price increases for products like beef or gas I can't help but think of how absolutely screwed we are in terms of addressing climate change if it involves consumer behavior.