pj_mukh
5 hours ago
This is a weird fantasy among the literati that AI is a "scam", that we can "expose" them with lots of palace intrigue coverage and SBF or Elizabeth Holmes them away and then everything will be right in the world. Some of the best models are Chinese and Open-source and so-so good and Sam Altman is wholly irrelevant to them.
Some folks are in for a very rude awakening.
tjsquared
2 hours ago
I've noticed the disconnect between tech moguls and enthusiasts and the rest of the media in AI coverage.
AI can invoke existential dread for writers, educators, and artists just as much as for software developers and engineers, although on perhaps a more delayed schedule.
I think public sentiment among journalists will eventually catch up with the pros and cons of AI in a nuanced way, but it's a bit harder to appreciate how impactful it already is if you're not using it to write software every day.
This is a point made by Andrej Karpathy.
1vuio0pswjnm7
an hour ago
"This is a fantasy among the literati that AI is a "scam", that we can "expose" them..."
Who is "them"
Is it "AI" that the literati are trying to "expose" or is it certain individuals
"Some of the best models are Chinese and Open-source and so-so good and Sam Altman is wholly irrelevant ot them."
Made with a small fraction of the budget available to Altman
But is this article about "AI" models. Or is it about Altman
"Some folks are in for a very rude awakening."
Who are the folks and what is the awakening
Is it "AI" investors
Once Altman starts taking the public's money, then it is possible he could end up like Holmes or SBF
If that happens, journalists ("literati") will publish stories about it, these stories will be submitted to HN and HN commenters ("??????") will complain
goldenarm
4 hours ago
Using unlicensed intellectual property to build a plagiarism machine that is wrong 10% of the time, could be interpreted as a scam by many folks.
BobbyJo
3 hours ago
Is there anyway to build intelligence that doesn't meet the definition of plagiarism you are using here?
I remember when IP laws were looked at like a form of oppression in the tech community...
hallway_monitor
3 hours ago
Yes, it is called paying for the use of copyrighted material which people put a lot of time and money into creating. Is this not obvious?
comfysocks
3 hours ago
To me, the problem is when IP laws are stretched and abused by big corporations (like, say Disney) or by patent trolls. If IP laws could work in a way that gave limited and reasonable protections to actual creators and innovators, then I don’t have a problem with them.
salawat
2 hours ago
It still is oppression. What many of us object to now is how starkly it's revealed the 2 tier illegitimate judicial system that on the one hand ruins grandmas and teenagers, but gives multinationals a free pass for charging everyone to get access to the human corpora. Anna's Archive, while equally illegal in a sense, but at least operates itself in a way compatible with uplifting everyone is getting more backlash than these tech companies that are dead set on "renting out access to intelligence". At this point, if you can't see the absurdity of the System as it functions past the "bing bing wahooness" of AI, I don't know what to tell ya.
sublinear
an hour ago
> I remember when IP laws were looked at like a form of oppression in the tech community...
This is not true. Otherwise, why is open source licensing so popular? Have you simply never read those licenses?
Craighead
3 hours ago
ahh yes the perfect world fallacy
stalfie
4 hours ago
That sentence could easily be applied to the human baseline.
Keyframe
4 hours ago
Yes, if you're equating same rights to soulless corporations and humans as well as their motives.
stalfie
2 hours ago
I'd say both are equally soulless, dualism is a little bit of a philosophical dead end.
Frankly, I don't particularly care much for the moral panic around capitalism. Capitalism has it's downsides for sure, but it's the system our society has chosen to motivate people, and it seems to work okay for many things. Does it matter if the AI model that solves your diagnosis, creates a life saving drug or solves an Erdös problem is made by a corporation or not? It bothers me none, progress is progress. As long as the authors of Textbooks everywhere wouldn't have otherwise invented LLMs a decade ago if they only had been given a little bit more money, then I'd say the money is going to the right place.
warkdarrior
3 hours ago
What exactly is your complaint about Anna's Archive?
Rekindle8090
3 hours ago
[dead]
anuramat
3 hours ago
> wrong 10% of the time
that doesn't sound nearly as bad as you think it does; I don't see how ethics are relevant here either, unless oil is also somehow a scam
regardless, one must be delusional to deny the fact that it's useful tech
"but they're evil" is not an argument
jgalt212
4 hours ago
On a certain level it is a scam. AI slop, vibe coding, tokenmaxxing, blaming employee layoffs on AI, pretty much any comment CEOs make about AI, etc.
libraryofbabel
3 hours ago
Well yes, there is tons of AI bullshit about and all sorts of scammy behavior, but I don’t think that says anything at all either way about whether the core technology is a “scam”, theranos-style. In fact I’m not sure how it could be otherwise: of course there’s going to be all sorts of hype and scamming around a novel, rapidly-progressing and potentially transformative tech like this, even if it works.
If you want an analogy, look at the history of the early railroads. Full of hype, bullshitters, scammy investments, robber-barons, unrealistic promises, and with their own legion of naysayers at the time. Yet the core technology worked and it did transform the world in the end.
standardUser
4 hours ago
Jargon isn't a scam. I get more and better work done with AI, to my own satisfaction and to the benefit of my employer. People using dumb terms to describe this doesn't make it less true.
jmull
3 hours ago
We're in a "both are true" situation here.
AI has real benefits, that are game-changing in some areas, even if AI never improve from their current capabilities.
People are claiming (whether they truly believe it or not) that AI has incredible capabilities and benefits that they don't currently have, and may never have.
There's plenty of scamming going on. The fact that AI has real game-changing capabilities just makes the scams harder to detect. People tend to like to see things as more black-and-white than they actually are, and scammers take advantage of that.
watwut
4 hours ago
But none of what OP said was jargon. All except one of those terms are things that are either harmful to employer or kind of fraud.
koutakun
4 hours ago
> I get more and better work done with AI, to my own satisfaction and to the benefit of my employer
In the short run, because Anthropic and other providers are heavily subsidizing coding agents to maximize user base. Will your employer still benefit and be satisfied in a couple of years when Anthropic jacks up the price by 5x and dumbs down Opus to the point where 50% of changes are easier to do manually than via an agent?
anuramat
3 hours ago
why would anthropic do that?
metalliqaz
4 hours ago
Rude how?
The fact that Chinese open weight models are useful does not really say anything about whether AI is hyped well beyond its actual worth, or whether the technology will be used for benevolent or nefarious purposes by American oligarchs.
pj_mukh
4 hours ago
"AI is hyped well beyond its actual worth, or whether the technology will be used for benevolent or nefarious purposes by American oligarchs."
This article is asking none of those questions. It's mostly a high school gossip column about what was said and with what tone and who used Butt pillows by The New Yorker, it reeks of desperation. If they could just find something nefarious on Sam Altman or show him in a bad light that sticks, they could fix it all and make AI go away.
My point stands, they're in for a Rude awakening.
dude250711
4 hours ago
Trying to justify current valuations by misrepresenting current model capabilities is a scam.
A fair valuation of ~$5B each for Anthropic and OpenAI for the occasionally useful tools that they had created would be more reasonable.
heipei
4 hours ago
$5B valuation on a $30B run rate for Anthropic?
reenorap
4 hours ago
40B ARR and profitable next month.
bigfishrunning
3 hours ago
It's always profitable next month.
user
4 hours ago
avarun
4 hours ago
Lol. What exactly have you based this "fair valuation" off of? Vibes?
varjag
4 hours ago
Come on. LinkedIn was bought for 6B.
trotro
4 hours ago
These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI, yet you think they should have the same valuation as Crocs (yes, the footwear company) ?
root_axis
4 hours ago
> These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI
This type of rhetoric is exactly why people think it's a scam
grey-area
4 hours ago
It’s nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either.
They do seem to be good at fooling people though.
ekianjo
4 hours ago
> nowhere near AGI, and LLMs are not going to lead to it either.
Nevermind what they can do was pure science fiction just 3 years ago?
vardalab
3 hours ago
Exactly. Here I am sitting talking to my freaking computer, arguing with it, whatnot. And people just dismiss it as if it's not a science fiction. We were not there two, three years ago. Now we are. It's amazing and scary, scary mostly because the society that we operate in. I bet it's less scary in Norway or elsewhere where govt is more biased towards people not corps.
grey-area
3 hours ago
They are good at fooling people.
bigfishrunning
3 hours ago
What they can do was not science fiction, these things are all based on papers that were written decades ago, with the caveat that there's simply not enough compute power. Now there is. That's what changed. Everything on top of that is an incremental improvement.
It doesn't change the fact that LLMs are not, and never will be, AGI.
amake
4 hours ago
Are you claiming they have AGI or are "close" to it?
SpicyLemonZest
3 hours ago
Yes. I think cutting-edge LLM products obviously have what nearly anyone in 2020 would have called "artificial general intelligence".
The shape of the intelligence frontier has turned out to be much more jagged than anyone at the time expected, so I can imagine reasonable objections from someone who has a specific, concrete benchmark of AGI that wasn't invented 6 months ago and isn't yet met. If someone just has a subjective sense that they're not smart enough, I think they're wrong.
user
3 hours ago
monocasa
4 hours ago
> These companies are selling subscriptions for what is basically AGI
That is the point under contention.
ru552
4 hours ago
Regardless of the marketing material, LLMs are still just using probabilities to guess what the next token is.
anuramat
4 hours ago
you think it should be deterministic?
bigfishrunning
3 hours ago
If LLMs were configured to be deterministic, instead of the current "small amount of randomness to provide the illusion of a thinking machine", they would be much more useful in exchange for being less exciting to laypeople.
In other words, scam.
anuramat
3 hours ago
you know you can set the temperature to zero and get exactly that, right?
trollbridge
4 hours ago
... where can I get a subscription to this AGI?