cmiles8
19 hours ago
To the extent that the present LLM movement reaches a steady state conclusion it’s highly likely to be open source models on your own hardware that are “good enough” for 95% of use cases.
That blows up the whole “industrial complex” being developed around massive data centers, proprietary models, and everything that goes with that. Complete implosion.
Apple has sat on the sidelines for much of this as it seems clear they know the end game is everyone just does this stuff locally on their phone or computer and then it’s game over for everything going on now.
draxil
18 hours ago
I assume you mean open weight models? I wish we had better open source models. It would make LLMs far less icky if we had nice clean open trained models. A breakthrough on the cost of training would be nice.
Yizahi
13 hours ago
We really can't have open source LLM, because they are all based on the stolen IP, or stolen IP slightly laundered and under different title.
harlanji
9 hours ago
I feel like an opt-in model built on AGPL code should output AGPL code.
I'd put my work into that. Not the only option just an example.
Every great project takes time to build. It's possible.
mike_hearn
16 hours ago
Nemotron is genuinely open source at least at the smaller sizes. You can download the datasets.
marci
12 hours ago
Also everything from scratch by allen.ai.
Weights, datasets, code, multiple checkpoints...
I like their FlexOlmo concept.
cmiles8
18 hours ago
Fair clarification, yes.
noemit
14 hours ago
Even if it runs, this will run slowly, and heat up.
I think local will always have a place, but the infrastructure is going to be used in my humble opinion.
cmiles8
13 hours ago
Today yes, but between the improved performance of smaller on device models and the hardware itself getting better this issue is short lived.
plussed_reader
12 hours ago
I don't want to put information into a black box of mystery that can then be used for other monetization purposes. I am still waiting for a realistic local solution.
efnx
10 hours ago
Have you tried qwen3.5 running locally? It’s quite “good enough”.
throwaway173738
12 hours ago
Compute evolved from batch systems with time sharing to responsive systems in your pocket. Why wouldn’t that happen here?
gervwyk
7 hours ago
there was a time when mainframes was the main thing.. we’ll look back and say data centers was a thing.. (hopefully if we lucky)
mr_toad
16 hours ago
Still need massive amounts of compute for training. Nobody is going to be training 400B models on a phone any time soon.
cmiles8
15 hours ago
Likely not.
We’re seeing a massive slowing in the value of all that additional training. Folks don’t like to talk about that, but absent a completely new break-thru the current math of LLMs has largely run its course.
We simply don’t need massive training forever and ever. We’re getting to the point that “good enough” models will solve most use cases. The demonstrated business value is also still broadly missing for AI on the level required to keep funding all this training for much longer.
mangoman
13 hours ago
I dunno, I thought that too for a while too, but there are a lot of new ideas in terms of architecture that may warrant massive training runs. Mamba and state space models are pretty interesting, but haven’t had their transformer moment yet because I haven’t really seen anyone go for broke on training it with a huge data set and model size. Even some of the more fundamental changes too like Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks or some of the ideas behind continuous back propagation haven’t really had the opportunity to be pushed to the limit. I think it’s still early days on what these models can do. And I say this as someone who bought a Mac m3 max 128gb ram, based on the hope that the on device training and inference work would eventually move locally. It’s encouraging to see the progress though and I hope it does move locally though.
parineum
13 hours ago
> but there are a lot of new ideas in terms of architecture that may warrant massive training runs
I don't think the argument is that isn't true, it's that the gains from those massive training runs is diminishing. Eventually, it won't be worth it to do the run for each new idea, you'll have to bundle a bunch together to get any noticeable change.
anonyfox
13 hours ago
I could see apple doing just that because they can and then having this another selling point of selling their own hardware. like their software is hard customized to run on their own hardware and vice versa (at least on paper), they could totally get some LLM going that works perfectly well on their chips specifically as a good enough local model in the next years, and promote it as kind of you-don't-need-a-subscription-when-you-have-an-iphone kind of thing. given the advances in recent years in the LLM space sounds kinda realistic to arrive somewhere that locally just works mid-term.
efsavage
11 hours ago
> “good enough” for 95% of use cases
Maybe, for current use cases. I'd argue that anyone who thinks they can do everything a 10kW server can do on their 10W device just isn't being creative enough :)
hiddencost
10 hours ago
Consumer market is small compared to headcount reduction and cutting edge science.