Is liberal democracy in terminal decline?

51 pointsposted 6 hours ago
by alephnerd

118 Comments

rawgabbit

5 hours ago

In the US, we are witnessing one of the flaws of the Constitution. The Executive branch, which is supposed to carry out the laws, is ignoring the law. Both Congress and the Supreme Court are acquiescing. The only people who are pushing back are the lower courts (which again are ignored by the Executive branch). This is dysfunction on a national level.

pjc50

4 hours ago

All three parts are controlled by the same party, so of course it collapses to a unitary executive.

It's not dysfunction, either. It's functioning exactly as intended, by the people who spent years setting it up, and is delivering their goals. Top of which was abortion bans, which required spending years patiently stacking the Supreme Court.

That the goals are stupid and evil and incoherent is a separate problem.

dylan604

4 hours ago

The patience of waiting for "their guy" to be given 3 posts to SCOTUS in one term was the ultimate pay off. It just so happened that "their guy" has got to be one of the most malleable to anyone's position as he has no position of his own other than being "the guy".

wat10000

4 hours ago

A major purpose of the Constitution was to design a system with independent components that would jealously guard their power against the others. This has been eroding for decades, and has now spectacularly failed.

Yizahi

4 hours ago

You are forgetting about legislative branch too. Congress fist voluntarily "gifted" their right to the executive branch, in the form of the eCaNoMic ImErGenCy. And then Congress passed a measure which blocked every single member of Congress from legally questioning that "gift", in the form of legislation that whole year 2025 is one single calendar day, and thus a legal requirement of waiting 10 (or 15?) days before protest couldn't pass. Essentially Congress blatantly broke Constitution twice. At minimum.

Herring

4 hours ago

They had no choice. Trump literally rewrote the republican party in his image. Congressmen who weren't falling in line got fired or forced to retire. Many many times, eg see Liz Cheney. The last time a purge like this happened was at the time of the Civil War. Even super-popular FDR tried taking out conservative democrats but wasn't successful (democrats don't have that kind of tribal discipline).

Yizahi

4 hours ago

Well, they did had a choice. And all of them are directly complicit in this situation by not reforming electoral college and first part the post election system. All current and past congressmen are guilty in that, since they have preserved a broken system so long as it benefited them personally.

Herring

3 hours ago

Maybe I misspoke, I mean it's an institutional+cultural failure. Looking forward, if we're to ever get out of this, it'll need something real big. Like another great depression leading to FDR's New Deal. Or Europe's hundreds of millions dead in two world wars. Heroism from individual congressmen isn't gonna cut it.

psunavy03

4 hours ago

The Supreme Court has told Trump to pound sand as often as it's upheld his policies. As dangerous as many of the things the Trump administration is doing are, there are other dangerous narratives out there, and the caricaturing of the Supreme Court is one of those.

There's a huge difference between "I disagree with this legal rationale" and "this court is illegitimate." Like it or not, every Justice on the Court is there legitimately. One of them via bare-knuckle hardball politics, to be sure. But according to the rules.

dylan604

4 hours ago

One of them is there because Congress made up rules to deny a sitting president his legitimate right to make a nomination. So I would say that judge is illegitimate to a lot of people.

psunavy03

3 hours ago

The President made a nomination. The Senate refused it. It's the Senate's prerogative to deny confirmation to the nominee.

ceejayoz

3 hours ago

The Senate made it very clear they would refuse any nomination.

Which is a scenario it seems the Founders didn't really anticipate.

dylan604

2 hours ago

There's a difference between putting a nomination to a vote and denying versus "we don't accept nominations in last year of an outgoing POTUS" yet turned right around and did it for Trump's third nomination. In that sense, 2 out of 3 would be deemed illegitimate on the same rule being applied in opposite ways. If you can't see the hypocrisy in that, then we really can't have an honest conversation

collinmcnulty

3 hours ago

This deeply misunderstands the Court. The legitimacy of the Supreme Court rests not simply on the justices being placed on the Court via the letter of the law, but also on the Court being an impartial arbiter of what the Constitution says. With verdicts like Trump vs. USA, the Court (especially certain justices) has pretty well jettisoned even trying to convincingly appear to like a judicial body and instead is behaving as a purely political actor. The Court has never been immune from politics, but its legitimacy rests in restraining itself by what the Constitution says, even when the justices don't like it.

Yizahi

4 hours ago

An anecdote - it is maybe lesser known fact in the west, but Putin deems himself a very law abiding person, and he proudly repeats this many times over his 26 year reign. The only tiny problem is that he himself first changes those laws as he sees fit. And then he can play pretend to be law abiding.

I think you get the hint. In despotias laws mean nothing really. USA is not there yet, but the process is very gradual, glacial even. But irreversible.

beej71

an hour ago

> The Supreme Court has told Trump to pound sand as often as it's upheld his policies.

Has it? Last I saw, they had overturned nearly 90% of lower conservative court rulings to be in Trump's favor, and a huge portion of those were on the shadow docket.

They also said it's fine to gift the justices, just not before they make a ruling.

And they gave the President a lot more immunity than he previously had.

If they're not actually corrupt, they look exactly as if they are.

wat10000

4 hours ago

Legitimacy can mean more than just following the letter of the rules. There's a pretty good argument to be made that refusing to even hold hearings for a nominee is a violation of the Senate's Constitutional duties. And refusing to uphold norms is a completely reasonable basis for calling something illegitimate as well. A pretty big chunk of our legal system is based on precedent and norms rather than written law.

ModernMech

3 hours ago

Giving Trump “Presidential Immunity” instead of allowing him to be tried for the insurrection and auto coup he attempted really tips the scales though. In terms of eroding democratic norms, that was a landslide.

lovich

2 hours ago

Overturning multiple precedents coming from decades ago, citing legal theorists from before the creation of our country to do so, and the increasing use of the shadow docket to geld the lower courts seems pretty illegitimate to me.

Also lol, this court is turning into heads Trump wins, tails everyone loses.

They ruled that Biden couldn’t forgive student loans but Trump has absolute immunity.

tokai

5 hours ago

Who would have know it would be a disaster to base your system on the Roman Republic?!

AnimalMuppet

2 hours ago

Well, that gave us a system that worked (with some modifications) for over 200 years, so that's still pretty good?

nh23423fefe

2 hours ago

lol civil war (just like the romans loved to do) within 80 years of founding isnt great.

paganel

4 hours ago

The Constitution without the people willing to "respect" it is just a piece of dead wood, it has always been like that. That applies to all Constitution-like covenants, no matter the time and the geographical location.

What's changed now, compared to the past, it's that the people deciding that what's written there is bogus have started changing things a little bit faster compared to the usual, hence all the brouhaha. Also a reminder that the Slavery System was very much alive and all under this same US Constitution for more than half a century, which goes to show that's it's really just a piece of dead wood.

gregbot

5 hours ago

So do you oppose DACA? That was the executive deliberately refusing to enforce the law as passed by congress.

Edit: Here’s what a federal judge had to say in 2023: "The solution for these deficiencies lies with the legislature, not the executive or judicial branches. Congress, for any number of reasons, has decided not to pass DACA-like legislation ... The Executive Branch cannot usurp the power bestowed on Congress by the Constitution — even to fill a void." https://www.npr.org/2023/09/14/1199428038/federal-judge-agai...

> Also, as an aside, if the bad actors in government who were screeching about DACA's constitutionality put even a fraction of that effort into protecting the Constitution when the First and Fourth Amendments were on the line, that would be great.

This is actual whataboutism

wan23

4 hours ago

Obama deported more people than Bush or Clinton, but chose to deprioritize (defer action) on the most sympathetic and focused more on troublemakers. Some might call that pragmatic use of limited resources.

pjc50

4 hours ago

And - crucially - did not have indiscriminate sweeps or raids. The number of false positives, people deported or arrested who had a legitimate right to remain, was nowhere near as high.

Almost everywhere has immigration enforcement. Most of those will do the occasional raid on homes or workplaces. Very rarely do you see the kinds of conflict that ICE is (IMO intentionally) causing.

aappleby

5 hours ago

Oh boy, whataboutism!

plagiarist

4 hours ago

I'm reading through the Wikipedia and you'll have to explain this because it looks like that version of the federal government respected injunctions that were issued. Or we can drop the pretense that you want to start a discussion in good faith with this whataboutism, that's fine with me too.

Also, as an aside, if the bad actors in government who were screeching about DACA's constitutionality put even a fraction of that effort into protecting the Constitution when the First and Fourth Amendments were on the line, that would be great.

mstank

5 hours ago

The pendulum is swinging back slightly, but I wouldn’t pronounce it dead just yet.

We are seeing a decline of American hegemony, accelerated by this current regime. And the ascendancy of a non-democratic superpower.

However, the largest chunk of GDP and growth still sits firmly in democratic countries and very consequential American elections are happening this year, and in 2028.

The real question is, will Europe find its spine?

latexr

4 hours ago

> very consequential American elections are happening this year, and in 2028.

Let’s hope they are (happening).

tdb7893

4 hours ago

There's no way to stop them federally without a full coup since they are administered by the states. The US has a long history of not cancelling election but suppressing votes (e.g. literacy tests, gerrymandering, closing polling locations, etc).

I would look more for voting place shenanigans, voter ID laws with only a weird subset of IDs allowed, radical gerrymandering, and stuff like that. Some of it will be blatantly partisan but also people are using justifications like "restoring trust in elections" to advocate for things that reduce the general franchise. They don't need to do a lot since a few percent is enough to swing the general balance of things.

tcb678

2 hours ago

Your contention only works in a functioning democracy.

Republicans currently control ~55% of all state legislative seats nationally and hold governing majorities in most states. In some of these states, they are incredibly partisan and just don't care - they will burn it all down to stay in power (MO, TX, etc.) Congress is required to certify the results of presidential elections, but state and congressional elections are a different matter. Those are certified at the state level, by state officials.

So what happens if Republican led states simply decide to declare, "We certify that the incumbent representative has been reelected," regardless of the actual vote count, or play other games e.g. discarding votes, eligibility, etc? It would be wildly illegal, of course. It would almost certainly trigger lawsuits, protests, and significant political repercussions within each state.

But here's the problem: in many of these jurisdictions, the federal district courts are controlled by Republican-appointed judges. The circuit courts are too. If the state officials certifying the results are Republican, the state courts and legislatures are friendly, and the federal courts that would hear any challenge are also sympathetic, how exactly would anyone stop them? Who enforces the ruling if the courts themselves are part of the alignment? The U.S. DOJ will not take up these cases on anyone's behalf. And in such a circumstance, you're unlikely to find a Congress willing to impeach the officials failing to do that.

More importantly, the National Guard and/or the Army gets activated under the Insurrection Act. So. That's the ballgame.

AnimalMuppet

2 hours ago

A few percent may not be enough to swing 2026.

What there are also going to be are allegations, claims of cheating, lawsuits...

alephnerd

5 hours ago

Hungary isn't the only illiberal democracy within the EU - France, Italy, Slovakia, Romania, Poland, Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia, Latvia, Belgium, Lithuania, Croatia, and Bulgaria are all either Illiberal/Flawed Democracies or Hybrid Regimes according to the EIU ranking [0].

Now that Babis is back in power with the backing of SPD and AUTO, it will also revert back into an Illiberal/Flawed Democracy.

Furthermore, all states on the cusp of EU membership (Albania, Montenegro) are also Illiberal/Flawed Democracies.

> largest chunk of GDP and growth still sits firmly in democratic countries

The only Full Democracies in the 10 largest GDPs are Germany, Japan, and the UK. Japan under Takaichi Sanae is pro-Trump and Germany is likely to see the AfD break it's cordon sanitare by 2029.

[0] - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-eiu

inglor_cz

4 hours ago

Don't rely on these magic figures too much. Some of the parameters judged by the EUI are very soft and prone to subjectivism/manipulation.

Is Greek government really more functional than Polish/Czech one? My personal experience would say "nope".

alephnerd

4 hours ago

Functional doesn't mean "more democratic". What matters is institutions, jurisprudence, and norms.

And after having dealt with the experience of opening a large foreign office in Czechia, there absolutely is a democratic deficit (sure it's extremely efficient, but we just needed to keep a handful of decisionmakers and "phone a (now deceased) friend" in a non-democratic manner).

inglor_cz

4 hours ago

The index you just cited is calculated out of five sub-numbers, one of whom is literally "functional government", and Czechia for some reason gets rather low 6.4 on this, less than Greece.

First, this is not my experience, and second, much like you I don't think that this is particularly relevant to the democratic character of the country.

I also would like to hear more about the democratic deficit you describe. Most problems around opening anything are caused by bureaucracy, which is obliged to follow norms produced by the lawmakers. Some of these norms are stupid, but that does not mean that they are undemocratic. Voters have the right to be stupid and to elect stupid representatives who produce stupid norms.

alephnerd

4 hours ago

> democratic character of the country

The core crux of "democratic character" is providing an even playing field as much as possible institutionally, organizationally, and politically. If functioning is subpar or requires "hacks" or misaligned institutions, it undermines democratic character itself.

Chest-thumping while ignoring the real degradation of institutions in a large portion of Europe is only going to put you back in the same position as the US.

> I also would like to hear more about the democratic deficit you describe

I'd rather not given the incumbent in power and how small the Cybersecurity FDI community in Czechia is. Maybe Vsquare, just not you.

inglor_cz

4 hours ago

OK, you prophesied that Czechia will lose its current EUI number under the incoming government.

Which of the five numbers that, averaged together, result in the total score, do you expect to lower and why?

alephnerd

4 hours ago

I'd expect a degradation to start in Civil Liberties scores with ANO's plan to abolition of the license fee; merge CT and CRo; and then move to a fully state funded operating model for the NewCo.

I also expect the political culture score to start steadily dropping as SPD and AUTO's competition to "own" the far-right leads to the intensification of culture war discourse, and potentially forces ANO to start opportunistically shifting right as well.

I don't expect "functioning of government" scores to shift significantly either, as the same issues that persisted when I helped my former employer enter Czechia still remain.

Our PortCos will still continue to remain in CZ because once you build that network it makes everything so much easier (and because Israeli founders and operators continue to have a soft spot for CZ), but the manner if which we need to operate in Czechia and maintain closeness with the right people isn't that different from emerging markets.

And that I feel is the crux of the issue in Czechia and much of the CEE - once you know the right 20-30 people or their friends or colleagues, you get the red carpet. Otherwise, it's an uneven playing field.

inglor_cz

3 hours ago

The model that is being discussed for the public broadcasters is that they will be financed by a certain fixed percentage of the country's GDP, and I don't think that there will be any merging of CT and CRo; there is no agreement on that in the coalition.

"intensification of culture war discourse" Compared to what? There isn't much space left to increase the heat.

"potentially forces ANO to start opportunistically shifting right as well."

ANO is a pensioner's party and given our fertility rate, this is their goldmine. They don't really have to expand their electorate, it expands on its own.

"once you know the right 20-30 people or their friends or colleagues"

Isn't that why people fight to get into Ivy League universities or Ecole Normale Superieure? I am not sure if there is any single nation on Earth where personal connections are unimportant.

alephnerd

2 hours ago

> Isn't that why people fight to get into Ivy League universities or Ecole Normale Superieure

Going to Harvard or Yale doesn't mean I have the ability to call a couple people who can pressure someone at the SEC to speed up the review of an S-1 or can pressure a city council to re-zone agricultural land to residential land to build a housing complex, or (using your earlier Eton example) find a SpAd who can put pressure at the SFO to get them off my back.

And more critically, if I find someone to do that, then my competitor will find out and take me to court, and 2-3 years are burnt in negotiating a settlement.

On the other hand, if someone even finds out that I do something like that in CZ, they have no choice but to roll with it because otherwise they will be frozen out from dealflow or ignored when asking for a favor.

And this is why institutions matter, and degradation of institutions are worrisome, becuase they increase the risk profile of opportunities and incentivize zero-sum thinking.

> The model that is being discussed for the public broadcasters is that they will be financed by a certain fixed percentage of the country's GDP

Yet the power of the purse will be removed from the media and given to the state, thus reducing CT and CRo's independence. This disincentivizes the publication of politically controversial statements.

-----

Just becuase the US is seeing degradation of institutions does not mean much of Europe is not facing similar problems.

Ignore it at your peril.

anon291

4 hours ago

Reminder that in the full democracy of the UK , you can be prosecuted for social media posts questioning the governments immigration policy.

pjc50

4 hours ago

No, you can't. You can be prosecuted for encouraging people to burn down a hotel though.

pydry

4 hours ago

There are hundreds of elderly people in prison right now in the UK charged with supporting terrorism because they opposed a racism inspired nazi-style genocide. Greta was among them.

0 have ever threatened or supported any kind of violence against any person ever.

Social media posts on this topic are treated the same way as holding up a poster in public.

1718627440

2 hours ago

Why does that always need to be told like it's an either or thing? Why can't the stance that the Hamas are a terrorist organization, that is ultimately also screwing the local population and that Israel is committing war crimes, be accepted by "internet posters". I would say that is the position, that a lot of governments and people have.

pydry

20 minutes ago

Not one of those people expressed sympathy for Hamas. They were imprisoned exclusively for protesting racism inspired genocide that mirrors the holocaust.

They supported a group that spray painted some planes. That was the extent of the "terrorism".

Most of the people who think they deserve to be in prison are racists.

pjc50

4 hours ago

Yeah, the proscription of support for Palestine Action was extremely indefensible. Different goalpost to your original post, though.

pydry

4 hours ago

The Economist (who runs the EIU) celebrated the Romanian democratic vote being canceled: https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/05/18/maga-misses-the-...

When they refer to liberalism or democratic values they mean neither. These are bywords for western hegemony, which is what they really care about.

This is what was under threat when they celebrated Romania's democratic first choice of president being denied.

mjanx123

5 hours ago

The European countries leaderships were each put in place by its responsible CIA compartment supporting liberal candidates/parties and undermining the competition. With the current conservative US admin they are supposed to interact with they don't know what to do and likely will do nothing.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

CIA is fanatical about following the State Department's foreign policy. Aside from gathering intelligence, they just take the State Department's lead.

A lot "CIA influence" isn't the CIA at all, but the US Government, usually State or DoD, projecting soft power.

I know this sounds pendantic. But whenever someone starts talking about the CIA like it's responsible for "supporting liberal candidates" - all seriousness leaves the room.

igleria

4 hours ago

> But whenever someone starts talking about the CIA like it's responsible for "supporting liberal candidates" - all seriousness leaves the room.

Nobody likes to admit their vote (or lack of) has consequences outside their little bubble.

1718627440

27 minutes ago

Do they? Isn't that kind of the point of voting to influence things that are far outside of your direct reach?

alephnerd

4 hours ago

> CIA is fanatical about following the State Department's foreign policy

From past personal experience, inter-service autonomy over policymaking is tightly guarded, and arguments always end up with the NSA (advisor, not the agency) where the president essentially becomes the tiebreaker.

Under the current administration, this rivalry has gotten much more intense due to the relatively hands-off management style that has been adopted.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

I'm sure fights happen all the time over inter-service autonomy. There was a book written recently about very nasty fighting between the CIA and DEA over whether to support a group of anti-communist guerillas who financed by running drugs.

The CIA and DEA switched positions repeatedly: one day the CIA wanted to support them to fight communism, and the DEA wanted to cut them off to stop the supply of drugs. When communism fell, the CIA saw the group as a liability who knew too much, while the the DEA wanted to pay them to destroy their drug labs and plant licit crops.

The group ended up destroying their drug labs, and focusing on money laundering, ransomware, and crypto-scams, which neither the CIA nor DEA cared about.

But the CIA is very consistent in following state department policies. They jealously guard their ability to delivery intelligence that conflicts with State Department priorities, but they don't have any strong priorities that conflict with those of State.

I'm sure things need to be ironed about by the NSA/NSC. That's normal. But the CIA isn't going fight the State department like they fight the DEA.

I'm open to correction on this. Maybe I'm just not understanding the situation.

alephnerd

4 hours ago

> I'm open to correction on this. Maybe I'm just not understanding the situation

It's much more gray simply because there are multiple agencies per department that can interpret and conduct intelligence operations.

The current administration also decided to adopt the private sector practice of letting "middle managers" conduct and implement what they want on their own and only disturb "upper management" if there are irreconcilable differences.

This is why policies change on a dime in the current administration.

kreetx

5 hours ago

Where would you say the "CIA influence" is the strongest, so I could see better what you mean?

I've observed that it's the messy process of democracy that has put the people in power. Sure, big countries (i.e, mostly Russia) would like to tilt governments their way, but it isn't succeeding. I can tell you though that local Facebook pages for newspapers are full of strange comments, seemingly Russian trolls (but I have no proof).

thomassmith65

4 hours ago

Social media incentivizes small 'creators' to espouse outrageous views that mainstream media does not, and that seem vitally important. An easy way to pump out a stream of unacceptable, important-sounding views is to (a) be outrageously wrong or offensive, and (b) claim everything mainstream is part of an evil plan to ruin the world.

This leads to constant messaging against whatever the underpinnings of a society happen to be.

So liberal democracy is in decline where it has been healthiest.

I have hope that liberal democracy will rise in regions where it is scarce. The Middle East first, then perhaps China, which we have all written off based on a couple decades (the blink of an eye, in the long run)

somenameforme

4 hours ago

What some do not see, and it may even be an age thing, is that over the past ~2 decades the definition of liberal has changed in a very substantial way.

In the early 2000s I was anti-war, anti-intervention, pro free speech, pro freedom of equality, against politicians trying to legislate morality or speech in any way, and thought we should have a strong border but with good immigration opportunities to allow the best to come and make the country even better. I was a fairly text book liberal, perhaps a bit more left than average. I still hold, more or less, these same values - yet somehow in contemporary times that's deemed conservative, if not very conservative.

Why this happened is an interesting question, but it's ultimately irrelevant. It has happened. And so it's predictably going to have long-term consequences for the parties. Basically we keep using the same names for these ideologies, but the values they represent shift, and even flip flop, in dramatic ways over time frames that, in hindsight, seem extremely rapid. Yet paradoxically, it's not like there's any given year or election where you can officially say that issue [x] suddenly flipped.

wan23

4 hours ago

Liberal still means liberal, and still means all the things you said. Without getting into the merits of any particular side, IMO we have a categorization problem. People use the word liberal for all types of left ideologies, which is a mistake as it makes it hard to pin down what people actually believe. Also the concepts of left and far left (and right and far right) are overused. The combination of these two phenomena make it so that people will say that things leftists do are "more liberal" when they are in fact not liberal at all.

1718627440

25 minutes ago

> Liberal still means liberal, and still means all the things you said.

To you (and maybe me). Applying political terms is very much political in itself, I would expect the majority of people telling you a different opinion to actually believe that to be the case themselves.

danmaz74

3 hours ago

The "liberal" in "liberal democracy" has nothing to do with the current common meaning of "liberal" - ie, left-wing - in the USA, as it comes from classical liberalism. In short, liberal democracy means a democracy based on rule of law, separation of powers, election of representatives, freedom of speech and freedom of the press.

pjc50

4 hours ago

> yet somehow in contemporary times that's deemed conservative, if not very conservative.

.. no, I think that sounds pretty capital-L Liberal to me. I think you may have confused the views of a few incredibly online leftists for "contemporary times". Or we get into specific issues and find out what the extreme conservativism actually is.

C6JEsQeQa5fCjE

3 hours ago

> Social media incentivizes small 'creators' to espouse outrageous views that mainstream media does not, and that seem vitally important

You write about this in a negative tone ("outrageous views"). To go for the extremely low hanging fruit, what about when the establishment media tried to mostly ignore Epstein, and it was only the hard push from social media personalities that brought the topic back into the mainstream? What confidence does that leave in the establishment media, and that they are not bought and paid for by the 'ruling pedophile class'?

When the establishment media refuses to talk about certain topics, it gives up the control over the narrative on that topic. That is their conscious choice. It is obvious that individuals will rise to fill that gap. Why are you writing about it as if it's a bad thing?

Does a liberal democracy even exist without independent media? I think not.

stfp

4 hours ago

Unfortunately I think the social media thing is key. At this point I'm convinced that we need a ban, at least before elections. That probably seems unrealistic but these novel entertainment options have proven to be so toxic to democracy that I don't think there's an alternative.

thrance

3 hours ago

People on HN got to stop blaming social media for everything wrong in society. "Small creators" are no more outrageous than the morons parading on Fox News 24/7. The 20th century had its fair share of fascism too, all without social media, why is that? Because the issue isn't actually social media, it's media control by an oligarchical class that pours billions into propping up right wing populism, because it serves their interest better. Liberal democracy can't exist when half the country has been propagandized away from reality.

Know that I would rather social media didn't exist, but putting all the blame for our dire political situation on it is very misguided.

prometheus76

4 hours ago

Liberal democracy is rooted in Christian ethics. It does not make sense to a Muslim culture or the Chinese culture.

red-iron-pine

3 hours ago

Ancient Greece sure as hell wasn't Christian

1718627440

24 minutes ago

But Christian swallowed Greece Philosophy, until to the point where it is a core part of Christianity. There are much less a break between different high-cultures as people make it be after the fact, but more of a continuous morphing into each other.

wat10000

4 hours ago

I imagine the people of Malaysia and Taiwan would be surprised to learn this.

red-iron-pine

3 hours ago

Or Indonesia. Or Turkey, which has a long history of Democracy stemming from Attaturk

thrance

3 hours ago

Christian ethics? What is that exactly?

IIRC, "Christianity" used to be very much tied to monarchy in Europe, as well as feudalism. Then it was used to justify slavery. Then apartheid. And now it's sometimes used to justify stripping minorities of their rights.

There is no Christian ethics, only people justifying there political views by invoking Jesus.

thomassmith65

4 hours ago

Democracy is pre-Christian.

Liberalism is rooted in Christian sectarianism.

mindcrime

4 hours ago

Terminal? Hard to be sure, but I think there are glimmers of hope that the answer is "no" in the short-term.

Corollary question: should it be? Eg, is "liberal democracy" really the best we can possibly do? My take is that the long-term goal should be a society based on Voluntaryism with no use of force for anything other than self-defense. But if we ever get there, it won't be soon, and in the near-term the collapse of liberal democracy is trending towards the full-on advent of fascism and totalitarianism.

So at least for now, I believe liberal democracy is something worth fighting to protect.

ultropolis

5 hours ago

A trick I learned recently that you can apply here is the following:

If a headline asks a yes/no question, the answer is "no".

blenderob

5 hours ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

> "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

ultropolis

5 hours ago

I immediately tested the premise in my newsreader, and saw that modern clickbait gives us headlines like "How many weeks till Blandars Gnob is released?", So I added that it must be a binary question.

latexr

4 hours ago

Either way, research suggests it’s not true. See the “Studies” section in the linked Wikipedia page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

> A 2016 study of a sample of academic journals (not news publications) (…) were more often answered "yes" in the body of the article rather than "no".

> A 2018 study of 2,585 articles in four academic journals in the field of ecology (…). Of the yes/no questions, 44 percent were answered "yes", 34 percent "maybe", and only 22 percent were answered "no".

> In 2015, a study of 26,000 articles from 13 news sites on the World Wide Web (…) divided into 20 percent "yes" answers, 17 percent "no" answers and 16 percent whose answers he could not determine.

inanutshellus

4 hours ago

> research suggests it’s not true

You misread. Betteridge's law says it can be "no"...

I think though his "law" is referring to clickbait that imply a falsehood to get you to read it.

"New Research asks - Can your baby live entirely off of kelp?!" ... "wow can she? that's nuts! lemme read! oh. no."

pinnochio

4 hours ago

Hm, not much of a law if we boil it down to a tautology.

1718627440

28 minutes ago

Every true statement boils down to resolving it to a tautology. In a mathematical proof you resolve definitions until only a tautology is left.

latexr

3 hours ago

> You misread. Betteridge's law says it can be "no"...

That doesn’t make sense. Of course Betteridge didn’t mean “it can be answered with “no”, but also “yes””. The point is that you can answer “no” instead of reading the article.

Either way, I was responding to ultropolis’ assertion—not Betteridge’s—by citing the studies which already suggest it to be false.

cosmicgadget

5 hours ago

Ultropolis's Law of Headlines, they call it.

user

4 hours ago

[deleted]

Yizahi

4 hours ago

Yes it is, partly because it was never democratic, and more like a an elective oligarchy. While people's and oligarchy intentions roughly aligned, we thought that "yay, democracy is working!". But as soon as the intentions diverged, this social order is slowly being exposed for what it is.

Why is it not democratic, you may ask? Because not a single one of us across the world had ever voted for or against any of the laws we must comply with (except for some lucky blokes in Switzerland). Laws were written and approved by a small number of individuals and not people.

mothballed

4 hours ago

I think it's drifting further from even that.

The people have discovered they can vote OPM to themselves and their pet causes. ICE now has a budget 4x the size of the marine corps. SS fund is on its way to bankruptcy. Corporations get all kinds of subsidies. Farmers get their own subsidies. And it goes on and on.

Meanwhile the national debt just keeps going up.

As each guy pays more OPM to the next guy he keeps asking more for more OPM for himself to cover the OPM he's losing to others. Eventually the portion of the economy that is one big circle jerk ratchets up and then if it goes on too long the whole thing collapses.

Havoc

5 hours ago

Unfortunately I suspect yes - for practical reasons not directly linked to demographics

It’s hard to beat the raw power of central control when you need something specific done sharpish at any cost.

See chinas quest for catching up with asml. Asml arose under the western order certainly but I don’t think the western order could will it into existence the way an autocratic government can. And that i think is going to become a big problem as progress speeds up and more of these pivotal junctures come up in quick succession

wat10000

4 hours ago

Democracy has been a pretty consistent desire among large numbers of people for a long time now. I don't see that ending any time soon. I do think things will get worse before they get better, because we have a hard time learning from history. The reasons for wanting democracy are too abstract right now. Once enough people get smacked in the face by them and learn why democracy is good, it will turn around. Unfortunately, those of us who do understand history have to learn this lesson alongside them.

LightBug1

5 hours ago

Terminal velocity achieved ...

The only question is whether it'll hit the ground before the next US election.

Any emergency 'chute's available?

user

5 hours ago

[deleted]

_DeadFred_

3 hours ago

In the US most Americans just don't matter to the economy like they once did (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43298862)

We have reached not just Dead internet theory, but also Dead Civilization theory. The top feel like they don't need half of civilization, and in fact half of civilization are now a weight/burden on society.

Liberal democracy was able to take power from authority because it was supported by enough people with enough power but that dynamic no longer exists. Authority has finally reached a point where that power has/is being taken back because it no longer needs those people's labor/participation/existence/buy in in society.

roromainmain

5 hours ago

I can’t access the article… but honestly, I’ve been asking myself the same question for the past ten years. The best answer I’ve found is: not yet — but the current backlash and drift toward authoritarianism in many democracies is actually the sign that something real is shifting. In a way, the situation looks weirdly similar to Europe before WWII. Democracies were starting to integrate some of the socialist ideas that had emerged in the 19th century, and the dominant forces of capitalism pushed back hard. They let fascists rise, sometimes even supported them. That led to a war, millions of deaths, and then a massive change of mindset: after WWII, every European country implemented strong social protection and regulation. Today, the shift is less about social security and more about cultural transformation — the end of patriarchy, and with it the decline of imperialism and Western dominance. Those foundations started being seriously questioned in the 60s. The dominant forces are resisting because, deep down, they’ve already lost — there’s no going back. But as always, they can still cause immense damage on the way out. And yes, if they refuse to let go peacefully, it could lead to conflict, and a lot of casualties. But after, democracy will make a come back. I may be too optimist.

alephnerd

5 hours ago

The article's argument follows your track of logic but is much more pessimistic:

"Is liberal democracy, then, in terminal decline? The rise of Carney himself offers a glimmer of hope, fuelled as it was by a reaction against Trump. But electoral trends in Europe do not suggest a repeat. A broad-based recovery of the liberal order will probably depend on a turnaround in the underlying trends, and here the signs are less promising. Attempts to soften the impact of worsening demographics are routinely rejected by voters and parties on both left and right. And the most promising source of renewed economic dynamism — AI — is likely to worsen inequality and increase societal instability, further undermining faith in democracy and hastening the slide into a zero-sum world.

Events of the past year have shocked the democratic world out of its daze, but it is these more powerful and slow-moving forces that should be the lasting cause for concern. Trump may fade from view in a few years, but any expectation that the liberal order will snap back flies in the face of the evidence. The old system was one that worked under a particular set of conditions. Those conditions are no longer present."

kreetx

4 hours ago

"Events of the past year", what has happened the past year?

vfclists

4 hours ago

How can liberal democracy not be in decline if it can only be discussed or seen behind a paywall which costs £59 a month to get over?

Are the voters a joke to the people who write such articles?

Am I a joke to them?

Is there a browser addon which can mark links on HN as behind paywalls?

Some sub-reddits tag them as such.

pjc50

4 hours ago

The paradox is that, because it earns a decent amount of money from readers, the FT provides generally sound content. Free media tends to be ideological advertising for whoever's funding it.

user

5 hours ago

[deleted]

gnosis67

5 hours ago

[flagged]

kaidon

5 hours ago

This sounds like something out of the Warhammer universe.

paganel

4 hours ago

Hopefully, yes.

Also hilarious how even on this downward trajectory the liberal order's main propaganda entities (like the FT here) run with geeky and nerdy stuff like charts (?!), that will show 'em!! A true sign that they know nothing of the real (ideological world). Just the other day they (the FT, that is) were also running with that mantra of "Trump is invading Greenland only on account of him getting messed up by the Mercator map projection!!", which was straight West Wing [1 ]heavy-liberal territory. Like I've said, they know nothing of the real world.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLqC3FNNOaI

OutOfHere

4 hours ago

Liberal democracy was in practice never about the people. Its existence made the rich richer and the poor poorer. The poor would be better off being more enterprising and putting their savings in inflation-resistant assets, e.g. gold, stock indexes, and major cryptocurrencies, rather than relying on liberal democracy to safeguard them. Don't call it investing because it should be the default vehicle. The rich of course don't want the poor to do anything of the sort, so that the poor can continue to remain exploited.

mise_en_place

4 hours ago

As King Reddit Rocket Man is fond of saying: "Demographics is destiny".

As the White population continues to decline globally, so too will liberalism.

You cannot separate the ideology from race, at least not cleanly anyway, regardless of what Blank Slatism says.

rune-dev

4 hours ago

Can you elaborate on this? Surely you don’t mean only white people can form/sustain liberal democracies…

mise_en_place

3 hours ago

Read Spengler.

>Comradeship breeds races... Where a race-ideal exists, as it does, supremely, in the Early period of a culture... the yearning of a ruling class towards this ideal, its will to be just so and not otherwise, operates (quite independently of the choosing of wives) towards actualizing this idea and eventually achieves it.

In other words, it's not necessarily that a non-white culture can't independently form and sustain a liberal democracy. But they'd need their own historical events mirroring that of the Magna Carta, the Enlightenment, etc. The seed needs to exist from the very beginning. The Global South doesn't have such preconditions culturally; unless you count colonialism, but as we've seen, that's not enough to transmit the race-ideal permanently, mimetically speaking. So you'll get a cargo cult of liberalism at best, but you won't get liberalism as such.

user

3 hours ago

[deleted]

rune-dev

an hour ago

Right… So very thinly veiled racism. Got it

AnimalMuppet

2 hours ago

If that's Spangler, why would I want to read more of it?

Why is it that all of these "profound" philosophers can't write worth a lick?

beej71

an hour ago

And yet here we have a whole bunch of white guys tearing up the Constitution.

eudamoniac

4 hours ago

Sad but true. White (western European) culture built these institutions and nonwhite cultures will have a hard time upholding them in their current form, if they even wanted to.

I don't think this is related to what's currently happening with Trump, however. That's a separate thing, more of a populist backlash by whites for various reasons.

mothballed

4 hours ago

It is interesting to note Liberia has(had) a similar constitution, although they seem to have done better at preserving freedom, and overall a quite different result in what they've got. You can build a house without code psychopaths condemning it because you broke some silly rule, you can raise your children mostly as you see fit without fascist CPS agents who pretend to be the ultimate parent scrutinizing you, they do not have much of any functioning immigration police, not much of any enforcement on the "war on drugs", the government is overall a pretty low % of GDP, and they only have 10% the amount of prisoners per capita as the US.