mattnewton
a day ago
Not only are we throwing the baby out with the bathwater, I feel like the current rhetoric in the US doesn’t even acknowledge the existence of the metaphorical baby anymore.
The strongest advantage of the US has always been the ability to absorb global talent. I don’t think that is a popular view anymore, and we are instead stuck talking only about stopping abuse that is ultimately still bringing skilled workers to the US.
Espressosaurus
a day ago
It's worse: we're actively ejecting the global brain drain that has been to our benefit since the post-WW2 era.
I know several people on various visas that are making plans to leave after having gotten PHDs here. Still more have naturalized and are making contingencies for exiting.
Immigrants found close to half of the fortune 500 businesses, and start something like 20% of our new businesses each year. For those motivated immigrants to choose elsewhere is going to reduce our growth both from what they don't do, and because immigration is what has delayed our demographic inversion that Europe and other developed nations are going through.
ffsm8
a day ago
I'm from Germany, and from an outsiders perspective I can only say that your argument wouldn't convince me.
I looked into the h1b for myself before, and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be able to start my own successful business while on it.
You're aware that there will continue to be immigration without the h1b visa, right? That's just a common way big corporations use to import cheap labor, at least that's what I looked like to me - because id be fully at the mercy of the company I'd be unable to really negotiate my contracts etc
It's definitely possible to make an argument in favor of the program, but it's a lot more nuanced at the societal level - and I suspect overall net negative, because often the h1b visa recipients will transfer their money back to their home country, which makes this into a net-negative again.
JeremyNT
a day ago
> You're aware that there will continue to be immigration without the h1b visa, right? That's just a common way big corporations use to import cheap labor, at least that's what I looked like to me - because id be fully at the mercy of the company I'd be unable to really negotiate my contracts etc
I believe the parent is referring to the knock-on effects of all the other immigration enforcement actions.
I largely agree with you about h1b specifically but this move doesn't exist in isolation. It's increasingly clear that the US is determined to make life hard on immigrants in general (or at least harder) and this is just another data point.
SilverElfin
a day ago
> That's just a common way big corporations use to import cheap labor
In the case of H1B, they’re paid slightly more on average. It’s myth that they’re cheaper. Usually they’re a lot more expensive given the costs of dealing with the immigration process
> I suspect overall net negative, because often the h1b visa recipients will transfer their money back to their home country, which makes this into a net-negative again
Why is this a problem? So what if someone transfers money back home - that’s their money that they’re free to do what they want with. Most people are okay buying imported products and also don’t support exit taxes in other situations, so why single out immigrants?
ffsm8
a day ago
You left out the context. It's not an issue at an individual level. I very explicitly stated that I was talking about societal level.
That means that the society is worse of if everyone does it
And importing goods is a good example why the scale matters. People usually import items worth maybe some small fraction of their yearly income, whereas some immigrants are known to sent back more then they spent locally.
Which is fine if they're actually world class talent, because then there will be very few people doing so, and their intellectual contributions likely offset any other issues. However, as you scale up the immigration percentage, it eventually does become a societal problem.
And the governments job is explicitly to look at the well being if the society - at least ideally. How much they actually do (vs just trying to siphon as much tax payer money as they can get away with) is another question I'm unqualified to say wrt the USA
logicchains
a day ago
>and because immigration is what has delayed our demographic inversion that Europe and other developed nations are going through
The birthrate among the most conservative Americans is still over 2.0. From the perspective of the conservative movement in power, it makes sense to halt immigration so the population becomes more and more conservative over time (as immigrants are left-leaning on average, especially Indians).
tremon
a day ago
The birthrate among the most conservative Americans is still over 2.0
That will not be enough to offset the oncoming boom in infant mortality.
rickydroll
a day ago
and maternal mortality.
dominostars
a day ago
> as immigrants are left-leaning on average, especially Indians
Curious what you're basing that on?
hackable_sand
a day ago
Crack smoke
saagarjha
a day ago
Not really.
seanmcdirmid
a day ago
Only a special group of conservatives largely in Utah have the ambition and brains to do much tech work. The rest aren’t very promising, and with the current birth rate, future tech jobs will mostly not get done and the work will move abroad.
Indians and even Chinese, not to mention most of the non-European immigrants, are relatively conservative (socially reserved, self reliant, lots of self responsibility) and are only seen as left leaning in the toxic form of nationalistic conservatism that dominates the USA.
ben_w
a day ago
I agree, but none of this is incompatible with what you replied to.
I have no idea if their claim that the "birthrate among the most conservative Americans is still over 2.0" is correct, but a demographic power struggle totally fits the rhetoric I observe from abroad.
themaninthedark
a day ago
I thought that the rural conservatives just needed to learn new skills in order to transition into a new job market.
At least, that was the messaging around 2019 when we were telling coal miners to 'learn to code.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/changing-america/en...
Now we are saying it takes a specific mindset...
It's also looking like those coal miners who pushed back had more foresight as the market is saturated and with the AI sea change.
https://futurism.com/computer-science-majors-high-unemployme...
I do agree with you in part however, it takes ambition to succeed. This is true no matter if you are an immigrant or native born.
Maybe the real question should be, why is our population losing their ambition?
seanmcdirmid
a day ago
They should learn to code, but as long as they believe math is some sort of conspiracy, they can’t. And it’s worse as they push their kids into the trades and into mining jobs that should go away, there simply won’t be an improvement quality if life.
Why do you think Utah is the richest red state? Mormon religion doesn’t see math/ science to conflict with faith for some reason, you will see a lot of Mormon programmers especially out here in the west. But the same isn’t true for the rest of red state America. Better yet, compare with China: China is a conservative country, but they believe in education. We simply don’t have that advantage in general.
qcnguy
a day ago
Nobody says math is a conspiracy, except maybe the far left educators who think math is some kind of racist white supremacy. That's a ridiculous straw man.
https://www.hoover.org/research/seattle-schools-propose-teac...
> China is a conservative country but they believe in education
China is a communist country that banned private tutoring because some children were getting ahead, creating inequality (the "double reduction" policy).
seanmcdirmid
a day ago
China is less communist than America these days. And even if they were bonafide communists, that has no real relation to conservative values.
When you give American conservatives actual numbers on the economy, weather, healthcare, they assert that they would much rather go with what they think is true vs what actually is true. They simply don’t believe in data and math, you aren’t going to advance much in tech that way.
qcnguy
a day ago
The Chinese economy is far more heavily planned than America's is, and they are far more totalitarian. There is no meaningful way you can claim America is more communist than China. China is less communist than under Mao, for sure, but it must still be kept in perspective.
You are conflating "government data" with "math" as if they're the same thing. That's a massive error and suggests you should fix your own understandings before attacking other people's. Someone saying they don't trust the government to report honest/accurate numbers doesn't mean they think math is a conspiracy, and it's a ridiculous distortion to present it like that. In fact, it's exactly that kind of behavior that causes conservatives to not trust leftists (and by extension the government departments most full of them).
mrtksn
a day ago
US looked like the next stage of humanity, if you are ambitious you go to USA. Anyone can become American and didn't feel like betrayal to the country or the people who raised you. Whatever you achieve in USA it will be available to all the humanity.
Fast forward to mid 2020s, now USA feels like old style European country that is rich as f and about to go through stages of great suffering to eventually become a nation. It's not even like Dubai or something, its straight out time travel. You don't go to USA to be treated fairly and climb to the top in a meritocratic system anymore, its all about race, identity and paperwork now. It looks like a shitty European country, why would you go to a shitty European country? You can have that experience at home in most places in the world and you don't have to suffer the part of being far away from your friends and family. I'm sure a lot of people will still go to USA but their profiles will be different.
IMHO the predominant feeling towards USA is disappointment, not even anger. It wasn't supposed to end up like that.
phs318u
16 hours ago
I agree with your points about how the USA used to be viewed globally, and that the predominant feeling is disappointment (or in my case, sadness).
However, your characterisation of European countries as “shitty” is unfair IMO. I’m reminded of the saying “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other ones). Europe is FAR from perfect, but the long arc of history factors large in their politics and humanistic predilections (relative to other countries that is). They have living memory to just how devastating divisions on the continent can be. So yes, the EU may be the shittiest form of government... except for all those other ones (acknowledging that this paraphrase only makes sense if your values are similar).
mrtksn
16 hours ago
Sorry, I should have written it more clearly. What I ment by a "shitty European country" was in the context of pre-democracy, something like fast developing country that sees lots of advancement in science and technology but the population suffers greatly due to inequalities and lack of rights or regulations against unfair labor practices. This used to be the case of UK for example. It's also the case for many developing countries today.
sph
10 hours ago
> shitty European country
I wish the crumbling of the empire will bring some humility to one of the most entitled and ignorant-about-the-world culture that ever had the chance to rule the world. Jesus, some of your comments are insufferable and it’s hard to feel pity for whatever is going on over there.
Also, the USA has stopped being the land of the free in the mid 70s for the rest of the world, but it’s clear that within your borders your post-war propaganda is still very effective to this day.
HaZeust
a day ago
"We live in an era of fraud in America. Not just in banking, but in government, education, religion, food, even baseball... What bothers me isn't that fraud is not nice. Or that fraud is mean. For fifteen thousand years, fraud and short sighted thinking have never, ever worked. Not once. Eventually you get caught, things go south. When the hell did we forget all that? I thought we were better than this, I really did."
- Steve Eisman, 2008
calculatte
a day ago
I think anyone working with the global talent can tell you there are absolutely no controls around measuring their quality. The skilled talent simply isn't skilled at all. They are willing to engage in kickback schemes. Even the O1 "genius" visa is being given to onlyfans models. Immigration is completely broken and it's by design.
mattnewton
20 hours ago
This is what I am getting at; the system is bringing skilled immigrants with some unskilled and some abuse, the baby and the bathwater. We should be focused on keeping that skilled immigration flowing, instead all these attempts are presupposing that all immigration is inherently harmful.
leptons
a day ago
Your take only applies to recent developments. For the entirety of the H visa program, it has brought in very valuable talent, which stayed here to generate incredible wealth for the country. "onlyfans" is a recent thing. The kickbacks are a relatively new thing. Sure immigration is broken, but that's what happens when the government is intent on breaking the country.
seanmcdirmid
a day ago
Onlyfans is a recent thing, but the First Lady had an EB-1 Einstein visa when she was posing for…interesting photos.
Muromec
a day ago
You mistyped Epstein visa
omnimus
a day ago
The fact that these visas are abused by people in power is completely different and in the end minor issue. I would bet vast majority of EB-1 are pretty out of the ordinary.
This is just derailing the discussion. Visas for privileged individuals bad = immigration bad.
calculatte
21 hours ago
Well you are right about one thing. Government is intent on breaking the country. But rampant immigration immigration fraud and abuse has been around for decades.
_DeadFred_
a day ago
The H visa program has been heavily exploited since the 1990s when I started in tech. By recent do you mean 26 years?
leptons
20 hours ago
Was the visa program being exploited by Onlyfans models and "influencers" in the 1990's? Because that is what is being talked about here.
_DeadFred_
17 hours ago
Your statements such as
"only applies to recent development" "For the entirety of the H visa program" "is a recent thing. The kickbacks are a relatively new thing."
expand the conversation scope to responding to what you state, and for me to say that in fact what you are claiming is incorrect.
SilverElfin
a day ago
Who are you to claim the talent isn’t skilled at all? Maybe you’re the unskilled, unemployed one who is now asking the rest of us for a protectionist tariff to save your employability. The business owners who are hiring these people are making the choices that are the best for their business, and they’re judging the quality. It’s their money, and they’re betting with it - and confidently too.
But let’s assume you’re right. Even if 90% of them were unskilled, the other 10% is still incredibly valuable for the American economy and taxpayers. And it’s not even a difficult decision. That “loss” is tiny compared to the extreme benefit we receive, that literally NO other country on the planet can replicate. Unless we give it away, like you’re proposing to do.
itake
a day ago
I think the US should prioritize training permanent residence over temporary residents that may take their skills (and wealth) back to their home country.
If the h1b program was a perm residence visa, then your argument holds water. When they return home, they will take their 15 years of experience and offshore their capital.
Whereas if a perm resident had that same job, they would keep their money invested in American businesses (and real estate).
If our goal is to brain drain the world, lets replace the h1b visa program with a program with a clear attainable path to perm residency.
arjie
a day ago
The H1B is dual intent. I was on one and now I’m here on a green card. Totally normal. The H1B has a clear path to application for permanent residency but permanent residency doesn’t have a clear path from application to completion because of the birth country caps.
You have to ask yourself what other implicit objectives you have because as it stands, raising the green card employment-based cap and raising the per-country cap would get you want immediately.
itake
13 hours ago
I think it would help, but we could still be better.
As an America living in southeast with ~40 years of life to plan for, I face the similar issue of: which country can I feel can be a 'safe' home for me to live in?
If Vietnam had a f1 -> h1b system (and no country caps), I would still not feel safe to call Vietnam my home.
- The h1b is a lottery. I could work my butt off and still just be unlucky.
- H1b is tied to employment. If I lost my job due to economic situations, poor politics, or personal health issues, I have 60d to find a new job or buy airplane tickets to leave.
calculatte
21 hours ago
Go ahead then. Explain how the US government measures the skills of work visa applicants. Because they just exposed millions are buying fake diplomas in India and getting visas. On the contrary, you sound like an H1B worker defending your position to parasitically drain US resources.
piva00
a day ago
> and we are instead stuck talking only about stopping abuse that is ultimately still bringing skilled workers to the US.
In my opinion this is even more general: there's a culture of focusing on punishment in the USA that creates more issues than the abuse it tries to punish.
It's one of the reasons of much of the bureaucratic mess in many systems, like healthcare and social welfare, an eternal game of whack-a-mole to stamp out abuse/fraud that creates Kafka-esque results. The focus is to find, and punish as much abuse as possible through increased requirements, increased bureaucratic burden, so on and so forth, instead of iterating the design in more clever ways to diminish the downsides.
I don't think there should be resignation to fraud and abuse, at the same time it doesn't matter how much more complicated the process gets it will always suffer from fraud/abuse, this extreme focus on trying to stamp it all out, punish, etc. instead of searching for a good balance where it's the most net-positive without creating additional issues, becomes very counter-productive after a certain level. Punishment of all waste, abuse, fraud is an impossible goal but it's always a political need given how American society needs to feel it's possible and will be done.
It's quite a cultural quagmire.
_DeadFred_
a day ago
This is by design by replubicans so that they can claim government doesn't work, or so that they ca kneecap programs before becoming successful and permanent.
Look at their plan to 'starve the beast'. They claim they are for fiscal responsibility as their number one priority, but they would rather bankrupt the country in order to get their political way than be fiscally responsible. They have zero morals. It's hard to have a working government when half the people in charge don't want a working government.
baubino
14 hours ago
> The strongest advantage of the US has always been the ability to absorb global talent.
Among the many inexplicable things the current US administration is doing, abandoning soft power in favor of returning to militaristic brute force makes the least sense to me. Soft power costs less, is easier to maintain, and creates a vast moat. Giving that up is nuts.
cmxch
a day ago
That’s because the damage has gone on too long.
When three generations (late Boomer, Generation X, and Millennials) have seen it and the various alphabet soup of programs from the perspective of having to train their replacements from these programs, or hear their parents having to do same, the sympathy and empathy have long since run dry. The only valid thing to do is to have the various involved entities from the law firms that architect the citizens out under dubious if not outright fraudulent terms, the companies that implement it (from the body shops to their clients, large and small), and the various lobbying groups that have pushed the sorry excuse of a program series (along with their smears about the citizens’ dare to protect their own first), to simply start cutting painfully huge, salary replacement checks to the entire generations that dealt with that mess.
And then you might understand why this is even on the table, and hope that the 1965 Immigration Act (and its follow on provisions) doesn’t get repealed in full to get rid of the fraud and abuse that even Grigsby & Cohen advocated for in the early 2000s.
Either you can stop this now and make amends with two and a half generations (and more) while you have a voice in the matter, or that it will be resolved in far uglier terms where your words will not be heard.
thisisit
a day ago
As a country US can't even agree on securing rights for its own people. Raising minimum wage or universal healthcare or housing leads to lots of bad faith discourse on socialism. The wealth is instead spent on fighting wars and strong arming others. Heck even the guy who promised no wars and America First cannot get enough and attacks another country in name of "liberation" and oil. But somehow immigration has dealt damage to three generations?
> the sympathy and empathy have long since run dry
The has to be the funniest part of the whole statement. The whole point of creating an "outsider" is that you have an enemy to fight contend with and can justify your dislike by accusing them of fraud and other crimes. People who dislike "outsiders" never had sympathy or empathy for those "outsiders" so lets not pretend something has changed.
happytoexplain
a day ago
This is black and white thinking. I've seen what you're denying firsthand.
palmotea
a day ago
Exactly, I'm reminded of this that I read recently:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/opinion/trump-presidentia...:
> Instead of comparing what is happening under Trump with the situations in Hungary, Turkey and Russia, Goldstone argued that conditions in the United States are,
>> ironically, more like what happened in Venezuela, where after a century of reasonably prosperous democratic government, decades of elite self-serving neglect of popular welfare led to the election of Hugo Chávez with a mandate to get rid of the old elites and create a populist dictatorship.
>> I find that decades-long trends in the U.S. — stagnating wages for non-college-educated males, sharply declining social mobility, fierce political polarization among the elites and a government sinking deeper and deeper into debt — are earmarks of countries heading into revolutionary upheaval.
>> Just as the French monarchy, despite being the richest and archetypal monarchy, collapsed in the late 18th century because of popular immiseration, elite conflicts and state debts, so the U.S. today, despite being the richest and archetypal democratic republic, is seeing its institutions come under attack today for a similar set of conditions.
zozbot234
a day ago
Meh. Every time the H1B visa comes up on HN, you always see the exact same THEY TOOK ER JERRRBBS comments about the program as a whole, even irrespective of any supposed abuse. Why should we be surprised that some Congress critters are now taking that exact attitude at face value?