Why Nigeria accepted GMOs

35 pointsposted 5 hours ago
by surprisetalk

59 Comments

redwood

4 hours ago

I'm a believer in taking advantage of GM crops but also believe that some kind of regulation should be put in place to ensure that those crops yield seeds that can be used to plant future generations.

If these crops are designed to require you to buy from a producing company each year, that just seems so fundamentally artificial and going against the grain of all of our agricultural history. And I can see how much of a slippery slope it can represent... ayou read about farmer suicides in India related to this topic. I bring this up because the fact that none of this is discussed in the article makes me fear it's got a profit agenda.

bootsmann

4 hours ago

I feel like this kind of discussion hinges on a misguided belief that farmers are not very smart businessmen. The idea that a farmer would abandon their current crop for GMO crop that they cannot replant without making a cost-benefit analysis in their head just strikes me as very odd. These peoples life depend on making such decisions, we should trust them to make them themselves.

abdullahkhalids

3 hours ago

In a multi-agent dynamic system, the optimal actions by each individual agents (based on whatever cost-benefit analysis they do) can evolve the system into a state where every agent is worse off compared to some initial state. This holds even if every individual agent is a "smart businessperson".

One main purpose of law and social rules is to prevent multi-agent systems from getting stuck into these global non-optimal states. And arguing that agents are smart is not a counter-argument to this.

TimTheTinker

2 hours ago

Great point.

As an extreme example, I'd add -- in some cases, because of market conditions (and perhaps the legal climate as well), within a given financial year a farmer may be forced to choose between purchasing GMO seeds and having to sell the farm, especially if the farm already used licensed GMO seeds in a prior year.

But as you pointed out, without legal and regulatory guardrails, the system at large can become badly suboptimal long before compromise-or-die dichotomies arise.

bootsmann

2 hours ago

This is true in the abstract but I don’t see how it applies to this specific case. There are two agents here and the GMO plants will only be planted if planting them is the optimal choice for both.

swiftcoder

an hour ago

I don't think you can arbitrarily leave out all the other parties in the agricultural system: the bank, who the farmer may need to borrow from to buy seed, the politicians, who may or may not accept money from the companies producing GMO seeds to produce favourable legislation, the public, who may vote with their wallets when purchasing the resulting crops, and so on...

trenchpilgrim

3 hours ago

If your neighbor planted a GMO crop in their field, and then sprayed them with the compatible chemicals, two things might happen:

1. The chemicals are carried by the wind onto your crop field, killing your non-GMO crops

2. The seeds from the GMO crop spread into your field, and corporate hired goons show up at your door threatening you with a lawsuit. Or maybe if your neighbor doesn't like you, they spread some GMO seed in your field, then report you to the company.

This led to neighbor versus neighbor conflicts in ag communities, in some cases turning violent.

https://youtu.be/CxVXvFOPIyQ?t=1567

tptacek

an hour ago

This (2) case is, I think, mostly (maybe entirely) false. In every case I've read where this was claimed, the actual fact pattern was that the "victim" farmer wound up with unlicensed herbicide/pesticide-resistant crops that they then sprayed with herbicide or pesticide. If you plant unlicensed Roundup-Ready seeds and then spray the crop with Roundup, you know what you were doing.

bluGill

3 hours ago

1 - farmers watch the wind and won't spray when drift is an issue. the epa requires this in the us and they look at drift before approving spray

2 - this has only happened when someone sprays their crop thus killing anything that isn't gmo and bringing the patents into the field. if you don't take advantage of the trait the corporate people don't care.

though many of the more useful traits are off patent now and so they won't care anyway

Y-bar

2 hours ago

> farmers watch the wind and won't spray when drift is an issue

Do they really? Never seem my neighbours being particularly picky about wind conditions.

> the epa requires this in the us and they look at drift before approving spray

Putting aside the current grave gutting of the agency in question, do they really inspect each usage on a regular basis or is it a pinky promise?

> this has only happened when someone sprays their crop thus killing anything that isn't gmo

That's a primary problem which is already happening as linked previously in the discussion, it essentially forces a mono-supplier and a mono-culture.

gruez

2 hours ago

>1. The chemicals are carried by the wind onto your crop field, killing your non-GMO crops

That sounds like it should be handled by tort law rather than GMO laws. Even without GMOs you'll have issues like this, for instance conventional fields polluting organic fields, or herbicides that work for one type of plant but not another.

bootsmann

3 hours ago

Valid points but this seems more simple to address using regulation rather than removing the seed patents (which are essential to some degree to make this whole process worthwhile for manufacturers). The argument is that without seed patents most of the genuine advancements would not be worth pursuing.

8note

3 hours ago

this is still based on the idea that farmers are bad businessmen, and couldnt find the seed innovation because it would result in better crops.

if the advancement is genuinely worthwhile, farmers are going to make it happen

bootsmann

2 hours ago

The whole point of the G in GMO is that you don’t get these plants by the usual technique of selecting good strains produced by natural gene variance.

trenchpilgrim

3 hours ago

What regulation would you propose to fix either of these issues?

Case 2 I suspect could be addressed by a law granting some level of immunity for simply having GMO plants in a field. But how do you fix Case 1 with laws? These are effects of biology and physics.

bootsmann

3 hours ago

If a factory pours poison into a farmers water source they can already sue, I cannot imagine it would be significantly harder to enable similar regulation for fertilizers and pesticides.

LunaSea

3 hours ago

Yes, that very famously worked for PFAS poisoned waters by DuPont in the US.

It's still ongoing and we're 24 years later.

trenchpilgrim

3 hours ago

The legal costs would bankrupt most non-corporate farms. (In fact that's what happened - as explained in the link in that comment, many farmers had to settle even if they believed themselves innocent.)

A lawsuit is rarely a good remedy to a problem, between legal costs, the time delay to any rewards, and the overloaded court system strongly encouraging people to settle out of court.

Veserv

3 hours ago

Monsanto has already made legally binding declarations that they will never sue for "simply having GMO plants in a field" or "accidentally growing trace amounts of patented crops" which have been affirmatively held as legally binding [1].

The cases you are referencing are cases where the farmer discovers trace contamination of their field, then deliberately sprays Roundup to kill all non-GMO crops, then deliberately harvest seed from the survivors, then deliberately create a GMO section of their farm where they repeatedly plant and harvest to concentrate seed production until they have multiple thousands of acres of GMO crops they derived from the trace contamination [2].

Or cases where they signed a agreement to not replant their GMO soybeans, so they sold those GMO soybeans to a facility which sells to consumers for consumption, then turned around and rebought from that same facility the GMO soybeans they just sold so they could replant them [3] claiming that the sale to a third party meant they were not "replanting" the soybeans they just produced since they just oopsie-whoopsie bought them from someone not bound by the agreement.

If you actually look into it, most of the cases that people imagine were really bad or evidence of Monsanto screwing farmers are actually examples of ridiculously slimy farmers. That is not to say that Monsanto is a saint as they almost surely are hiding evidence of Roundup toxicity and you should be generally distrusting that large corporations are value-aligned with regular people, but specifically in the cases of Monsanto versus farmers, the farmers are almost always hiding how absolutely slimy they are actually being.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2013/06/12/190977225/co...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monsanto_Canada_Inc_v_Schmeise...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowman_v._Monsanto_Co.

lm28469

3 hours ago

Point 1 isn't a "might happen", it's a "will happen"

cyberax

3 hours ago

> 1. The chemicals are carried by the wind onto your crop field, killing your non-GMO crops

Have you ever been on a farm?

> 2. The seeds from the GMO crop spread into your field, and corporate hired goons show up at your door threatening you with a lawsuit.

Sorry, but this video is just pure post-truth bullshit. I unsubscribed from Veritassium because of this video, and I was a paying Patreon subscriber.

Monsanto has NEVER sued anyone for accidental contamination. Moreover, they will buy out your contaminated crops at higher-than-market prices.

They sued farmers that specifically and intentionally, over several years, bred resistant crops by using GMO genes from neighboring fields or by replanting the previous years' crop.

> This led to neighbor versus neighbor conflicts in ag communities, in some cases turning violent.

Can you cite any examples? Go on, fire up Kagi and search.

estimator7292

41 minutes ago

The problem is that even with the seed rent-seeking, GMO crops are more productive and more profitable.

The farmer still makes just enough money, with some corporate middleman skimming off the top for no good reason. It's not that the fees are untenable- obviously nobody will buy it if they can't make a profit. The problem is the corporate rent-seeking. Producers have to raise costs which percolates up into increased costs for consumers.

onemoresoop

21 minutes ago

What would stop them from jacking up prices when they have monopoly? It's not like we haven't seen this scenario before..

Waterluvian

an hour ago

I can’t think of a more complete “Jack of all trades” than the modern farmer.

sdeframond

3 hours ago

Many businesses are not thinking long term. Farming businesses are businesses too, and may prefer short term profitability over long term sustainability.

See for example the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, which is at the same time an existential threat to to farming and caused by farming.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer

bootsmann

3 hours ago

This is a tragedy of the commons and not comparable to a singular farmer making a singular decision about what to plant on his field.

michaelt

an hour ago

Imagine if hypothetically a supplier offered very competitive - maybe even loss-making - prices when they had 25% of the market; then once they had 90% of the market and most of their competitors had gone out of business, they planned to raise prices substantially, make back the loss, and produce a big profit.

Isn't each customer's decision to buy (or not buy) from the loss-making supplier a tragedy-of-the-commons situation?

mothballed

41 minutes ago

I struggle for an example of that actually working. If it does it must be exceedingly rare. I can think of lots of example of having 25% of the market and then getting closer to the majority by cutting prices, but the part where they jack them back up usually doesn't work. For instance, Rockefeller did that to put his competition out of business, but then the price of Kerosene just kept going down.

The times where it actually worked (railroad) was because the people doing it convinced the government afterwards to "protect the market" (interstate commerce act) and created a violence enforced cartel that prohibited by law rebates and other methods by which cartels (and pre-ICA railroad cartels) commonly fall apart.

thinkingtoilet

3 hours ago

Are they? Farmers in the US just went a full month without selling a single soy bean to China. The last time it happened was seven years ago. Guess who was president both times it happened. Guess who farmers overwhelmingly voted for? They regularly vote against their own business interests. Perhaps farmers in Nigeria are better educated.

rpdillon

an hour ago

I think farmers know about the trade war that Trump will create, but they also think he will do other things to help them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2025/10/02/tru...

I was also curious about this, so I ended up watching a documentary a local politician made where she interviewed local farmers trying to figure out why they would vote against their own best interests, and the short answer was, net, they thought additional bailouts + deregulation of farming would outweigh the potential trade war.

mrguyorama

2 hours ago

The entire reason almost every modern country massively subsidizes and manages the staple food crops of their agricultural economy is that letting them rationally act in their best interests kept causing famines when farmers did dumb things, like cause the dust bowl.

Central management of food supplies has been an essential part of societal stability since ancient times, and the USSR using "industrialization" and "centralization" of farming as an excuse to kill a bunch of "kulaks" does not undo that.

Tuna-Fish

an hour ago

You do understand that your requirement effectively cuts out many modern non-GMO seeds?

One of the big advancements in the turn of the 20th century was heterosis, or the systematic exploitation of hybrid vigor. If you maintain two (or more) extremely inbred but different from each other germlines, but cross them to produce seed, you get seed that is much more heterozygotic than is naturally common. This seed is then dramatically more viable and productive. But if you replant what it yields, you only get very disappointing yield.

That is, it has been normal for farmers to buy new seed each season from some provider that specializes in making very productive seed for more than a hundred years now. Part of getting developing countries to raise their agricultural productivity to modern standards is getting them to start doing this, instead of continuously replanting their old seeds.

padjo

2 hours ago

I’m fairly sure that farmers often buy seeds rather than harvesting them. There are lots of reasons for this but essentially growing seeds and growing produce is just quite different. I don’t think it’s the dramatic shift you’re making it out to be.

kevin_thibedeau

2 hours ago

It depends on the crop. With cereals, the seed is the product, and you could divert a part of production to next year's planting. With other crops, harvest may happen before seeds mature and may require special processing to extract them for the seed producers.

bluGill

an hour ago

If you are planting hybrid seeds you would never save seeds because their children don't yield well. Hybrid yields so much better that it isn't worth planting anything else if you have the option.

benced

2 hours ago

I really dislike this logic because it centers the farmers, not the people who buy agricultural products (everybody).

kjkjadksj

3 hours ago

From a practical standpoint that is difficult to do. E.g. many crops are hybrid species taking advantage of hybrid vigor (1). If the hybrid is fertile at all will be quite variable in phenotypes.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heterosis

cyberax

3 hours ago

> I'm a believer in taking advantage of GM crops but also believe that some kind of regulation should be put in place to ensure that those crops yield seeds that can be used to plant future generations.

This hasn't been that useful for quite a while. Most modern crops are hybrids that rapidly degrade if they are just replanted year after year.

0x000xca0xfe

3 hours ago

On the other hand fertile GMOs will sooner or later mix into the surrounding nature, compete with local plants and undergo "normal" evolution. This might be undesirable.

Another consideration is that optimizing one or two features like yield or resistance in plants often affects other areas negatively like adaptability or fertiliy. Making fertile GMOs with the same yield is probably harder than making infertile ones.

But at the very least it should not be possible to patent or copyright DNA or any other parts of living organisms, what an utterly horrible idea.

tick_tock_tick

3 hours ago

> but also believe that some kind of regulation should be put in place to ensure that those crops yield seeds that can be used to plant future generations.

Did you mistype? I think in general it should be 100% illegal with guaranteed jail time to to make any non sterile otherwise we are just going to create our own invasive species.

bluGill

an hour ago

Farmers want sterile crops. last years seed in this years field is a weed that messes with your crop rotation plan without any upsides.

abdullahkhalids

4 hours ago

From the TFA

> In general, a higher democracy index correlates with greater GM acceptance, although large differences exist between individual nations.5 South America contains both pro-GM and GM-skeptical nations. When comparing the two using the Democracy Index, however, the pro-GM countries have a consistently higher Democracy Index (6.8) than those that ban GM (4.4). Similarly, the mean Democracy Index for Sub-Saharan African countries that cultivate or are currently legislating towards GM crop cultivation (4.7) is higher than those that ban it (3.5).

> This suggests that fostering democratic accountability is not simply a political good in itself, but also a precursor for enabling science-based agriculture. For countries looking to promote GM, the priority may not be exporting “democracy” wholesale, but supporting governments in building credibility, transparency, and public trust — the very conditions under which new technologies can take root.

This makes this piece sound like a political propaganda post. There is no concrete causal mechanism posited here, just vague assertions. Two seconds of thought would reveal that all non-democratic countries have adopted technologies of all sorts. And people in those countries use technologies extensively in daily life.

I would assume it is easier for corporations to spread bribes around in a decentralized decision making system like representative democracy, than it is in centralized authoritarian systems.

arandr0x

an hour ago

Is there not a confounding factor at play that a more functional government would facilitate both more democracy and more legislation on newer technology? Is this notion that "it might be nice to help your target market have a generally working government to facilitate them being willing to divert money towards non-corruption goals and able to protect your market with laws" really that new?

(Here the model would be that democracy is something that countries develop once they have some OK government systems, not that democracy in itself makes those systems better, but it works with the causation the other way too)

hollerith

4 hours ago

I agree: at first glance it is a very flimsy argument -- made by an organization whose entire purpose seems to be to advocate for what they consider to be technological progress specifically in the biological domain.

kranke155

4 hours ago

GMOs allowed for the huge expansion on the use of pesticides in America, since the crops are "pesticide ready".

Symmetry

2 hours ago

They've allowed for a huge expansion of the use of herbicide but drastically reduced the use of insecticide. I'd much rather have the former than the later.

bluGill

3 hours ago

The real question is why anyone would not.

Before you reply remember random mutation is common - normal in nature. what is the difference between a random mutation and one a scientist comes up with. So far the only one I've found is random mutation isn't studied for safety.

jackbravo

2 hours ago

One common drawback of GM crops is the monopolistic nature of their seeds. They come with a license and a cost to use, you cannot save seeds and use them later. So it seems like a threat to the sovereignty of a Country.

The article briefly mentions that initially some seeds are given with royalty free licenses, but for how long?

gruez

2 hours ago

1. as others have mentioned in a sibling thread, "saving seeds" isn't really a thing that can be done with modern crops, GMO or not.

2. If you get a productivity boost from GMO, and but then GMO company goes rogue, can't you still go back to planting regular seeds?

Symmetry

2 hours ago

And before GMO essentially all modern strains were created by accelerating the mutation of plants via the application of x-rays.

xchip

4 hours ago

Because they are poor and you can easily bribe the politicians

ryoshoe

4 hours ago

Regardless of potential bribes to politicians, its easy to look at the increased yields from GMO foods as a benefit for a country where ~20% of the population are undernourished

https://www.globalhungerindex.org/nigeria.html

darth_avocado

3 hours ago

It is an artificial dichotomy tbh. When you say GMO foods, you usually refer to foods that have been introduced to populations across the globe in environments they are not suitable to be grown in. Yes GMO rice will probably grow better and feed more people in drought prone regions of India, but so would the indigenous millets that were replaced by rice. They require less water (and fertilizers and pesticides that GMOs require), are more resilient to climate events and more suitable to local climate. Not saying GMO foods are A solution, just that they aren’t the ONLY solution if the goal was to feed enough people.

Some additional reading: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10695985/#:~:text=A...

kjkjadksj

3 hours ago

Behavior follows costs. There is probably some stumbling block regarding millets. That being said, seed companies are very interested in land races, do not be mistaken. They are a good source of phenotypic variation and potential traits that might be favorable to introduce into the elite cultivars.

maddmann

4 hours ago

Did you read the article? I think this case study shows why gm is likely to be key to avoiding mass starvation as climate change becomes a bigger issue.

mothballed

4 hours ago

The government can't even make a dent into wars between farmers and livestock herders.

Any political control or statement on GMOs are largely theater. They have next to no means to prohibit it nor subsidize it.

dzonga

4 hours ago

maybe we need to ask why was Nigeria in a place to accept GMOs being pushed by the Gates Foundation ?

what are the conditions that led to that outcome ?