A definition of AGI

305 pointsposted 3 months ago
by pegasus

319 Comments

flkiwi

3 months ago

> defining AGI as matching the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult

I don't think people really realize how extraordinary accomplishment it would be to have an artificial system matching the cognitive versatility and proficiency of an uneducated child, much less a well-educated adult. Hell, AI matching the intelligence of some nonhuman animals would be an epoch-defining accomplishment.

andy99

3 months ago

I think the bigger issue is people confusing impressive but comparatively simpler achievements (everything current LLMs do) with anything remotely near the cognitive versatility of any human.

mikepurvis

3 months ago

But the big crisis right now is that for an astonishing number of tasks that a normal person could come up with, chatgpt.com is actually a good at or better than a typical human.

If you took the current state of affairs back to the 90s you’d quickly convince most people that we’re there. Given that we’re actually not, we’re now have to come up with new goalposts.

noduerme

3 months ago

I don't know. People in the 90s were initially fooled by Eliza, but soon understood that Eliza was a trick. LLMs are a more complex and expensive trick. Maybe it's time to overthrow the Turing Test. Fooling humans isn't necessarily an indicator of intelligence, and it leads down a blind alley: Language is a false proxy for thought.

Consider this. I could walk into a club in Vegas, throw down $10,000 cash for a VIP table, and start throwing around $100 bills. Would that make most people think I'm wealthy? Yes. Am I actually wealthy? No. But clearly the test is the wrong test. All show and no go.

qudat

3 months ago

> LLMs are a more complex and expensive trick

The more I think about this, the more I think the same is true for our own intelligence. Consciousness is a trick and AI development is lifting the veil of our vanity. I'm not claiming that LLMs are conscious or intelligent or whatever. I'm suggesting that next token prediction has scaled so well and cover so many use cases that the next couple breakthroughs will show us how simple intelligence is once you remove the complexity of biological systems from the equation.

https://bower.sh/who-will-understand-consciousness

jncfhnb

3 months ago

The validity of the Turing test doesn’t change the fact that the bots are better than humans at many tasks that we would consider intellectual challenges

torginus

3 months ago

I am not a good writer or artist, yet I can tell that AI generated pictures or prose feel 'off' compared to stuff that humans make. People who are professional writers and artists can point out in a lot of cases the issues with structure, execution and composition that these images have, or maybe if sometimes they can't they still have a nose for subtle issues, and can improve on the result.

famouswaffles

3 months ago

>I could walk into a club in Vegas, throw down $10,000 cash for a VIP table, and start throwing around $100 bills.

If you can withdraw $10,000 cash at all to dispose as you please (including for this 'trick' game) then my friend you are wealthy from the perspective of the vast majority of humans living on the planet.

And if you balk at doing this, maybe because you cannot actually withdraw that much, or maybe because it is badly needed for something else, then you are not actually capable of performing the test now, are you ?

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

dboreham

3 months ago

Missing insight: humans are also a trick. Every human is deluded about the intelligence of other humans, and themselves.

raducu

3 months ago

> Maybe it's time to overthrow the Turing Test. Fooling humans isn't necessarily an indicator of intelligence.

I'm sorry, but I find this intelectual dishonesty and moving the goal posts.

Speaks more about our inability to recognize the monumental revolution about to happen in the next decade or so.

cauliflower2718

3 months ago

I think this depends on how you measure task.

One common kind of interaction I have with chatgpt (pro): 1. I ask for something 2. Chatgpt suggests something that doesn't actually fulfill my request 3. I tell it how its suggestion does not satisfy my request. 4. It gives me the same suggestion as before, or a similar suggestion with the same issue.

Chatgpt is pretty bad at "don't keep doing the thing I literally just asked you not to do" but most humans are pretty good at that, assuming they are reasonable and cooperative.

jjmarr

3 months ago

> Chatgpt is pretty bad at "don't keep doing the thing I literally just asked you not to do" but most humans are pretty good at that.

Most humans are terrible at that. Most humans don't study for tests, fail, and don't see the connection. Most humans will ignore rules for their safety and get injured. Most humans, when given a task at work, will half-ass it and not make progress without constant monitoring.

If you only hang out with genius SWEs in San Francisco, sure, ChatGPT isn't at AGI. But the typical person has been surpassed by ChatGPT already.

I'd go so far as to say the typical programmer has been surpassed by AI.

garciasn

3 months ago

While the majority of humans are quite capable of this, there are so many examples anyone could give that prove that capability doesn’t mean they do so.

spicyusername

3 months ago

    chatgpt.com is actually a good at or better than a typical human.
I really don't think it is on basically any measure outside of text regurgitation. It can aggregate an incredible amount of information, yes, and it can do so very quickly, but it does so in an incredibly lossy way and that is basically all it can do.

It does what it was designed to do, predict text. Does it do that incredibly well, yes. Does it do anything else, no.

That isn't to say super advanced text regurgitation isn't valuable, just that its nowhere even remotely close to AGI.

throwaway-0001

3 months ago

I feel every human just regurgitates words too. And most are worse than an AI.

I have countless examples of lawyers, hr and other public gov bodies that breach the law without knowing the consequences. I also have examples of AI giving bad advice, but it’s al better than an average human right now.

An AI could easily save them a ton of money in the fees they are paying for breaching the law.

acdha

3 months ago

> chatgpt.com is actually a good at or better than a typical human.

It can appear so, as long as you don’t check too carefully. It’s impressive but still very common to find basic errors once you are out of the simplest, most common problems due to the lack of real understanding or reasoning capabilities. That leads to mistakes which most humans wouldn’t make (while sober / non-sleep deprived) and the classes of error are different because humans don’t mix that lack of understanding/reasoning/memory with the same level of polish.

hattmall

3 months ago

Ask ChatGPT about something you don't know about and it can appear very smart. Ask it in depth about something you are very knowledgeable about and the ignorance will quickly become apparent.

georgefrowny

3 months ago

> If you took the current state of affairs back to the 90s you’d quickly convince most people that we’re there.

This is an interesting ambiguity in the Turing test. It does not say if the examiner is familiar with the expected level of the candidate. But I think it's an unfair advantage to the machine if it can pass based on the examiner's incredulity.

If you took a digital calculator back to the 1800s, added a 30 second delay and asked the examiner to decide if a human was providing the answer to the screen or a machine, they might well conclude that it must be human as there is no known way for a machine to perform that action. The Akinator game would probably pass the test into the 1980s.

I think the only sensible interpretation of the test is one where the examiner is willing to believe that a machine could be providing a passing set of answers before the test starts. Otherwise the test difficulty varies wildly based on the examiners impression of the current technical capabilities of machines.

Yizahi

3 months ago

The problem is for a majority of those tasks people conveniently "forget" the actual start and end of the process. LLMs can't start most of those tasks by it's own decision and neither they can't end and evaluate the result of those tasks. Sure, we got automated multiple tasks from a very low percentage to a very high percentage, and that is really impressive. But I don't see how any LLM can bridge that gap from very percent of automation to a strict 100% of automation, for any task. And if a program requires a real intelligence handling and controlling it, is it really AI?

runarberg

3 months ago

I am unimpressed, and I don‘t think there is any crisis (other then the lack of consumer protection around these products, copyright, and the amount of energy it takes running these system during a global warming crisis).

If you look at a calculator you will quickly find it is much better then a human in any of the operations that have been programmed into the calculator, and has been since the 1960s. Since the 1960s the operations programmed into your average calculator has increased by several orders of magnitude. The digital calculator sure is impressive, and useful, but there is no crisis. Even in the world outside computing, a bicycle can outperform an human runner easily, yet there is no mobility crisis as a result. ChatGPT is very good at predicting language. And in quite a few subject matters it may be better than your average human in predicting said language. But not nearly as good as a car is to a runner, nor even as good as a chess computer is to a grand master. But if you compare ChatGPT to an expert in the subject, the expert is much much much better then the language model. In these tasks a calculator is much more impressive.

z0r

3 months ago

It's good at tasks if you have a competent and _critical_ human editor selecting outputs and pulling the prompt slot lever again as needed.

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

p1esk

3 months ago

Exactly. Five years ago I posted here on HN that AI will pass Turing Test in the next 3 years (I was impressed by Facebook chatbot progress at the time). I was laughed at and downvoted into oblivion. TT was seen by many as a huge milestone, incredibly difficult task, “maybe in my lifetime” possibility.

jdlshore

3 months ago

> for an astonishing number of tasks that a normal person could come up with, chatgpt.com is actually a good at or better than a typical human.

That’s not my experience at all. Unless you define “typical human” as “someone who is untrained in the task at hand and is satisfied with mediocre results.” What tasks are you thinking of?

(And, to be clear, being better than that straw man of “typical human” is such a low bar as to be useless.)

notatoad

3 months ago

it should be possible to admit that AGI not only a long way off, but also a lot different to what chatGPT does, without discounting that chatGPT is extraordinarily useful.

the AI bros like to talk about AGI as if it's just the next threshold for LLMs, which discounts the complexity of AGI, but also discounts their own products. we don't need an AGI to be our helpful chatbot assistant. it's fine for that to just be a helpful chatbot assistant.

hyperadvanced

3 months ago

Was thinking about this today. I had to do a simple wedding planning task - setting up my wedding website with FAQ, cobbling the guest list (together from texts, photos of my father’s address book, and excel spreadsheets), directions and advice for lodging, conjuring up a scheme to get people to use the on-site cabins, and a few other mundane tasks. No phone calls, no “deep research” just wrote browser-jockeying. Not even any code, the off-the-rack system just makes that for you (however I know for a fact an LLM would love to try to code this for me).

I know without a single doubt that I could not simply as an “AI” “agent” to do this today and expect any sort of a functional result, especially when some of these were (very simple) judgement calls or workarounds for absolutely filthy data and a janky wedding planning website UI.

thinmalk

3 months ago

The tests for AGI that keep getting made, including the ones in this paper, always feel like they're (probably unintentionally) constructed in a way that covers up AI's lack of cognitive versatility. AI functions much better when you do something like you see here, where you break down tasks into small restricted benchmarks and then see if they can perform well.

But when we say AGI, we want something that will function in the real world like a human would. We want to be able to say, "Here's 500 dollars. Take the car to get the materials, then build me a doghouse, then train my dog. Then go to the store, get the ingredients, and make dinner."

If the robotics aren't reliable enough to test that, then have it be a remote employee for 6 months. Not "have someone call up AI to wrote sections of code" - have a group of remote employees, make 10% AI, give them all the same jobs with the same responsibilities, and see if anyone notices a difference after 6 months. Give an AI an account on Upwork, and tell it to make money any way it can.

Of course, AI is nowhere near that level yet. So we're stuck manufacturing toy "AGI" benchmarks that current AI can at least have some success with. But these types of benchmarks only broadcast the fact that we know that current and near future AI would fail horribly at any actual AGI task we threw at it.

ben_w

3 months ago

Or even to come up with a definition of cognitive versatility and proficiency that is good enough to not get argued away once we have an AI which technically passes that specific definition.

The Turing Test was great until something that passed it (with an average human as interrogator) turned out to also not be able to count letters in a word — because only a special kind of human interrogator (the "scientist or QA" kind) could even think to ask that kind of question.

socalgal2

3 months ago

Can you point to an LLM passing the turing test where they didn't invalidate the test by limiting the time or the topics?

I've seen claims of passing but it's always things like "with only 3 questions" or "with only 3 minutes of interrogation" or "With only questions about topic X". Those aren't Turing Tests. As an example, if you limit the test to short things than anything will pass "Limit to 1 word one question". User types "Hello", LLM response "Hi". PASS! (not!)

acdha

3 months ago

This is the best one I’ve seen but it has the notable caveat that it’s a relatively short 5 minute chat session:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.08007

I do think we’re going to see this shift as AI systems become more commonplace and people become more practiced at recognizing the distinction between polished text and understanding.

GolDDranks

3 months ago

Note that Turing test allows a lot leeway for the test settings, i.e. who interrogates it, how much they know about the weakness of current SOA models, are they allowed to use tools (I'm thinking of something like ARC-AGI but in a format that allows chat-based testing), and how long a chat is allowed etc. Therefore there can be multiple interpretations of whether the current models pass the test or not.

One could say that if there is maximally hard Turing test, and a "sloppy" Turing test, we are somewhere where the current models pass the sloppy version but not the maximally hard version.

photonthug

3 months ago

Hah, tools-or-no does make things interesting, since this opens up the robot tactic of "use this discord API to poll some humans about appropriate response". And yet if you're suspiciously good at cube roots, then you might out yourself as robot right away. Doing any math at all in fact is probably suspect. Outside of a classroom humans tend to answer questions like "multiply 34 x 91" with "go fuck yourself", and personally I usually start closing browser tabs when asked to identify motorcycles

parineum

3 months ago

I think the turing test suffers a bit from the "when a measurement becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measurement."

An AI that happened to be able to pass the turing test would be pretty notable because it probably implies much more capabilities behind the scenes. The problem with, for example, LLMs, they're essentially optimized turing test takers. That's about all they can do.

Plus, I don't think any LLM will pass the turing test in the long term. Once something organically comes up that they aren't good at, it'll be fairly obvious they aren't human and the limits of context will also become apparent eventually.

mikepurvis

3 months ago

You can also be interrogating a human and in the course of your conversation stumble across something it isn’t good at.

atbvu

3 months ago

The Turing test is long outdated. Modern models can fool humans, but fooling isn’t understanding. Maybe we should flip the perspective AGI isn’t about imitation, it’s about discovering patterns autonomously in open environments.

cma

3 months ago

If a human learned only on tokenized representations of words I don't know that they would be as good at inferring the numbers of letters in the words in teh underlying tokens as llms.

ben_w

3 months ago

While true, it is nevertheless a very easy test to differentiate humans from LLMs, and thus if you know it you can easily figure out who is the human and who is the AI.

lumost

3 months ago

Or that this system would fail to adapt in anyway to changes of circumstance. The adaptive intelligence of a live human is truly incredible. Even in cases where the weights are updatable, We watch AI make the same mistake thousands of times in an RL loop before attempting a different strategy.

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

alganet

3 months ago

Absolute definitions are weak. They won't settle anything.

We know what we need right now, the next step. That step is a machine that, when it fails, it fails in a human way.

Humans also make mistakes, and hallucinate. But we do it as humans. When a human fails, you think "damn, that's a mistake perhaps me or my friend could have done".

LLMs on the other hand, fail in a weird way. When they hallucinate, they demonstrate how non-human they are.

It has nothing to do with some special kind of interrogator. We must assume the best human interrogator possible. This next step I described work even with the most skeptic human interrogator possible. It also synergizes with the idea of alignment in ways other tests don't.

When that step is reached, humans will or will not figure out another characteristic that makes it evident that "subject X" is a machine and not a human, and a way to test it.

Moving the goalpost is the only way forward. Not all goalpost moves are valid, but the valid next move is a goalpost move. It's kind of obvious.

AstroBen

3 months ago

This makes sense if we're trying to recreate a human mind artifically, but I don't think that's the goal?

There's no reason an equivalent or superior general intelligence needs to be similar to us at all

akoboldfrying

3 months ago

> This next step I described work even with the most skeptic human interrogator possible.

To be a valid test, it still has to be passed by ~every adult human. The harder you make the test (in any direction), the more it fails on this important axis.

latentsea

3 months ago

> We know what we need right now, the next step. That step is a machine that, when it fails, it fails in a human way.

I don't know if machines that become insecure and lash out are a good idea.

pankajdoharey

3 months ago

People are specialists not generalists, creating a AI that is generalist and claiming it to have cognitive abilities the same as an "well-educated" adult is an oxymoron. And if such system could ever be made My guess is it wont be more than a few (under 5) Billion Parameter model that is very good at looking up stuff online, forgetting stuff when not in use , planning and creating or expanding the knowledge in its nodes. Much like a human adult would. It will be highly sa mple efficient, It wont know 30 languages (although it has been seen that models generalize better with more languages), it wont know entire wikipedia by heart , it even wont remember minor details of programming languages and stuff. Now that is my definition of an AGI.

zulban

3 months ago

Why don't you think people realize that? I must have heard this basic talking point a hundred times.

SalmoShalazar

3 months ago

Because the amount of people stating that AGI is just around the corner is staggering. These people have no conception of what they are talking about.

suprjami

3 months ago

But they do. They're not talking about AGI, they're talking about venture capital funding.

dsjoerg

3 months ago

Their people are different from your people.

shermantanktop

3 months ago

It turns out that all our people are different, and each of us belongs to some other people’s people.

frank_nitti

3 months ago

For me, it would be because the term AGI gets bandied about a lot more frequently in discussions involving Gen AI, as if that path takes us any closer to AGI than other threads in the AI field have.

cbdevidal

3 months ago

Have any benchmarks been made that use this paper’s definition? I follow the ARC prize and Humanity’s Last Exam, but I don’t know how closely they would map to this paper’s methods.

Edit: Probably not, since it was published less than a week ago :-) I’ll be watching for benchmarks.

Grimblewald

3 months ago

I always laugh these, why are people always jumping to defining AGI when they clearly don't have a functional definition for the I part yet? More to the point, once you have the I part you get the G part, it is a fundamental part of it.

hopelite

3 months ago

I’m more surprised and equally concerned that the majority of people’s understanding of intelligence and their definition of AGI. Not only does the definition “… matching the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult.”, by definition violate the “general” in AGI, by the “well educated” part; but it also implies that only the “well-educated” (presumably by a specific curriculum) qualifies one as intelligent and by definition also once you depart from the “well” of the “educated” you exponentially diverge from “intelligent”. It all seems rather unimpressive intelligence.

In other words; in one question; is the current AI not already well beyond the “…cognitive versatility and proficiency of an uneducated child”? And when you consider that in many places like Africa, they didn’t even have a written language until European evangelists created it and taught it to them in the late 19th century, and they have far less “education” than even some of the most “uneducated” avg., European and even many American children, does that not mean that AI is well beyond them at least?

Frankly, as it seems things are going, there Is at the very least going to be a very stark shift in “intelligence” that even exceeds that which has happened in the last 50 or so years that have brought us stark drops in memory, literary knowledge, mathematics, and even general literacy, not to mention the ability to write. What does it mean that kids now will not even have to feign acting like they’re selling out sources, vetting them, contradicting a story or logical sequence, forming ideas, messages, and stories, etc.? I’m not trying to be bleak, but I don’t see tons simply resulting in net positive outcomes, and most of the negative impacts will also be happening below the surface to the point that people won’t realize what is being lost.

interstice

3 months ago

What I think is being skipped in the current conversation is that versatility keyword is hiding a lot of unknowns - even now. We don't seem to have a true understanding of the breadth or depth of our own unconscious thought processes, therefore we don't have much that is concrete to start with.

surgical_fire

3 months ago

There are some sycophants that claim that LLMs can operate at Junior Enginee level.

Try to reconcile that with your ideas (that I think are correct for that matter)

ben_w

3 months ago

I'll simultaneously call all current ML models "stupid" and also say that SOTA LLMs can operate at junior (software) engineer level.

This is because I use "stupidity" as the number of examples some intelligence needs in order to learn from, while performance is limited to the quality of the output.

LLMs *partially* make up for being too stupid to live (literally: no living thing could survive if it needed so many examples) by going through each example faster than any living thing ever could — by as many orders of magnitude as there are between jogging and continental drift.

card_zero

3 months ago

(10 orders of magnitude, it works out neatly as 8km/h for a fast jogger against 0.0008 mm/h for the East African Rift.)

JumpCrisscross

3 months ago

If you’re a shop that churns through juniors, LLMs may match that. If you retain them for more than a year, you rapidly see the difference. Both personally and in the teams that develop an LLM addiction versus those who use it to turbocharge innate advantages.

ACCount37

3 months ago

Data-efficiency matters, but compute-efficiency matters too.

LLMs have a reasonable learning rate at inference time (in-context learning is powerful), but a very poor learning rate in pretraining. And one issue with that is that we have an awful lot of cheap data to pretrain those LLMs with.

We don't know how much compute human brain uses to do what it does. And if we could pretrain with the same data-efficiency as humans, but at the cost of using x10000 the compute for it?

It would be impossible to justify doing that for all but the most expensive, hard-to-come-by gold-plated datasets - ones that are actually worth squeezing every drop of performance gains out from.

ninetyninenine

3 months ago

AI is highly educated. It's a different sort of artifact we're dealing with where it can't tell truth from fiction.

What's going on is AI fatigue. We see it everywhere, we use it all the time. It's becoming generic and annoying and we're getting bored of it EVEN though the accomplishment is through the fucking roof.

If elon musk makes interstellar car that can reach the nearest star in 1 second and priced it at 1k, I guarantee within a year people will be bored of it and finding some angle to criticize it.

So what happens is we get fatigued, and then we have such negative emotions about it that we can't possibly classify it as the same thing as human intelligence. We magnify the flaws and until it takes up all the space and we demand a redefinition of what agi is because it doesn't "feel" right.

We already had a definition of AGI. We hit it. We moved the goal posts because we weren't satisfied. This cycle is endless. The definition of AGI will always be changing.

Take LLMs as they exist now and only allow 10% of the population to access it. Then the opposite effect will happen. The good parts will be over magnified and the bad parts will be acknowledged and then subsequently dismissed.

Think about it. All the AI slop we see on social media are freaking masterpieces works of art produced in minutes what most humans can't even hope to come close to. Yet we're annoyed and unimpressed by them. That's how it's always going to go down.

buu700

3 months ago

Pretty much. Capabilities we now consider mundane were science fiction just three years ago, as far as anyone not employed by OpenAI was concerned.

We already had a definition of AGI. We hit it.

Are you sure about that? Which definition are you referring to? From what I can tell with Google and Grok, every proposed definition has been that AGI strictly matches or exceeds human cognitive capabilities across the board.

Generative AI is great, but it's not like you could just assign an arbitrary job to a present-day LLM, give it access to an expense account, and check in quarterly with reasonable expectations of useful progress.

wild_egg

3 months ago

You generally can't just have a quarterly check-in with humans either.

There's a significant fraction of humanity that would not clear the bar to meet current AGI definitions.

The distribution of human cognitive abilities is vast and current AI systems definitely exceed the capabilities of a surprising number of people.

ninetyninenine

3 months ago

>Generative AI is great, but it's not like you could just assign an arbitrary job to a present-day LLM, give it access to an expense account, and check in quarterly with reasonable expectations of useful progress.

Has anyone tried this yet?

ninetyninenine

3 months ago

>We already had a definition of AGI. We hit it.

The turing test.

parineum

3 months ago

> We already had a definition of AGI. We hit it.

I'm curious when and what you consider to have been the moment.

To me, the general in AGI means I should be able to teach it something it's never seen before. I don't think I can even teach an LLM something it's seen a million times before. Long division, for example.

I don't think a model that is solid state until it's "trained" again has a very good chance of being AGI (unless that training is built into it and the model can decide to train itself).

criddell

3 months ago

> We already had a definition of AGI.

I'm not an expert, but my layman's understanding of AI was that AGI meant the ability to learn in an abstract way.

Give me a dumb robot that can learn and I should be able to teach it how to drive, argue in court, write poetry, pull weeds in a field, or fold laundry the same way I could teach a person to do those things.

flkiwi

3 months ago

(1) AI isn't educated. It has access to a lot of information. That's two different things.

(2) I was rebutting the paper's standard that AGI should be achieving the status of a well-educated adult, which is probably far, far too high a standard. Even something measured to a much lower standard--which we aren't at yet--would change the world. Or, going back to my example, an AI that was as intelligent as a labrador in terms of its ability to synthesize and act on information would be truly extraordinary.

arthurcolle

3 months ago

It has access to a compressed representation of some subset of the information it was trained on, depending on training regime.

By this, what I mean is. Take an image of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitorous_eight#/media/File:T..., change the file name to something like image.jpg and pass it into Qwen 3 4B, 8B, 30B and look at the responses you get:

It has no idea who these guys are. It thinks they are the beatles, the doors. If you probe enough, it'll say it's IBM cofounders. In a way, it kinda sees that these are mid-1900s folks with cool haircuts, but it doesn't recognize anything. If you probe on the F the model in question becomes convinced it's the Ford racing team with a detailed explanation of two brothers in the photo, etc.

The creation of autoregressive next token predictors is very cool and clearly has and will continue to have many valuable applications, but I think we're missing something that makes interactions with users actually shape the trajectory of its own experience. Maybe scaffolding + qlora solves this. Maybe it doesn't

Forgeties79

3 months ago

> EVEN though the accomplishment is through the fucking roof.

I agree with this but also, the output is almost entirely worthless if you can’t vet it with your own knowledge and experience because it routinely gives you large swaths of incorrect info. Enough that you can’t really use the output unless you can find the inevitable issues. If I had to put a number to it, I would say 30% of what an LLM spits out at any given time to me is completely bullshit or at best irrelevant. 70% is very impressive, but still, it presents major issues. That’s not boredom, that’s just acknowledging the limitations.

It’s like designing an engine or power source that has incredible efficiency but doesn’t actually move or affect anything (not saying LLM’s are worthless but bear with me). It just outputs with no productive result. I can be impressed with the achievement while also acknowledging it has severe limitations

ninetyninenine

3 months ago

Not all content needs to be real. A huge portion of what humans appreciate is fiction. There's a huge amount of that content and hallucination is the name of the game in these contexts.

dns_snek

3 months ago

> We already had a definition of AGI. We hit it.

Any definition of AGI that allows for this is utterly useless:

> Me: Does adding salt and yeast together in pizza dough kill the yeast?

> ChatGPT: No, adding salt and yeast together in pizza dough doesn't kill the yeast.

(new chat)

> Me: My pizza dough didn't rise. Did adding salt and yeast together kill the yeast?

> ChatGPT: It's possible, what order did you add them in?

> Me: Water, yeast, salt, flour

> ChatGPT: Okay, that explains it! Adding the salt right after the yeast is definitely the issue.

(It is not the issue)

ninetyninenine

3 months ago

You picked one trivial failure and built an entire worldview around it while ignoring the tidal wave of success stories that define what these models can already do. ChatGPT can draft legal documents, debug code in multiple languages, generate functional architectures, summarize thousand page reports, compose music, write poetry, design marketing campaigns, and tutor students in real time. It can hold domain specific conversations with doctors, engineers, and lawyers and produce coherent, context aware reasoning that would have been considered impossible five years ago.

And you’re pointing to a single pizza dough error as if that somehow invalidates all of it. If that’s your bar, then every human who ever made a mistake in a kitchen is disqualified from being intelligent too. You’re cherry picking the single dumbest moment and pretending it defines the whole picture. It doesn’t.

The real story is that these models already demonstrate reasoning and generalization across virtually every intellectual domain. They write, argue, and problem solve with flexibility and intent. They’re not perfect, but perfection was never the standard. The Turing test was passed the moment you could no longer draw a clear line between where imitation ends and understanding begins.

You can sneer about yeast all you want, but the irony is that while you mock, the machines are already doing useful work coding, researching, analyzing, and creating, quietly exceeding every benchmark that once defined general intelligence.

PopePompus

3 months ago

> If elon musk makes interstellar car that can reach the nearest star in 1 second and priced it at 1k, I guarantee within a year people will be bored of it and finding some angle to criticize it.

Americans were glued to their seats watching Apollo 11 land. Most were back to watching I Dream of Jeanie reruns when Apollo 17 touched down.

card_zero

3 months ago

Well yes, but if this actually happened it would open up a new frontier. We'd have an entire galaxy of unspoilt ecosystems* to shit in. Climate anxiety would go from being existential dread to mere sentimental indignation, and everybody would be interested in the latest news from the various interstellar colonies and planning when to emigrate. Mental illness epidemics would clear up, politics would look like an old-fashioned activity, the global mood would lift, and people would say "global" much less often.

* Ecosystems may require self-assembly

NedF

3 months ago

[dead]

zkmon

3 months ago

The problem, I guess, with these methods is, they consider human intelligence as something detached from human biology. I think this is incorrect. Everything that goes in the human mind is firmly rooted in the biological state of that human, and the biological cycles that evolved through millennia.

Things like chess-playing skill of a machine could be bench-marked against that of a human, but the abstract feelings that drive reasoning and correlations inside a human mind are more biological than logical.

lunarboy

3 months ago

Yup, I feel like the biggest limitation with current AI is that they don't have desire (nor actual agency to act upon it). They don't have to worry about hunger, death, feelings, and so they don't really have desires to further explore space, or make life more efficient because they're on limited time like humans. Their improvement isn't coming inside out like humans, it's just external driven (someone pressing a training epoch). This is why I don't think LLMs will reach AGI, if AGI somehow ties back to "human-ness." And maybe that's a good thing for Skynet reasons, but anyways

aurareturn

3 months ago

They do have desire. Their desire is to help answer human requests.

We can easily program them to have human desires instead.

whamlastxmas

3 months ago

Desire isn’t really the right word. A riverbank doesn’t desire to route water. It’s just what it does when you introduce water.

Workaccount2

3 months ago

There is no reason to believe that consciousness, sentience, or emotions require a biological base.

mat_b

3 months ago

There's equally no reason to believe that a machine can be conscious. The fact is, we can't say anything about what is required for consciousness because we don't understand what it is or how to measure or define it.

someguyiguess

3 months ago

This is the only correct answer. People are trying to hit an imaginary target that they dont even know for sure exists.

mxkopy

3 months ago

I disagree, I think the leap of faith is to believe that something in our brains made of physical building blocks can’t be replicated on a computer that so far we’ve seen is very capable of simulating those building blocks

nebezb

3 months ago

I’m certainly not informed enough to have an intelligent conversation about this, but surely the emotions bit can’t be right?

My emotions are definitely a function of the chemical soup my brain is sitting in (or the opposite).

BugsJustFindMe

3 months ago

Your emotions are surely caused by the chemical soup, but chemical soup need not be the only way to arrive at emotions. It is possible for different mechanisms to achieve same outcomes.

runarberg

3 months ago

There is exactly one good reason, at least for consciousness and sentience. And the reason is that those are such a vaguely defined (or rather defined by prototypes; ala Wittgenstein [or JavaScript before classes]). And that reason is anthropism.

We only have one good example of consciousness and sentience, and that is our own. We have good reason to suspect other entities (particularly other human individuals, but also other animals) have that as well, but we cannot access it, and not even confirm its existence. As a result using these terms of non-human beings becomes confusing at best, but it will never be actually helpful.

Emotions are another thing, we can define that outside of our experience, using behavior states and its connection with patterns of stimuli. For that we can certainly observe and describe behavior of a non biological entity as emotional. But given that emotion is something which regulates behavior which has evolved over millions of years, whether such a description would be useful is a whole another matter. I would be inclined to use a more general description of behavior patterns which includes emotion but also other means of behavior regulators.

sim7c00

3 months ago

they do not, but the same argument can hold true by the fact the true human nature is not really known and thus trying to define what a human like intelligence would consist of can only be incomplete.

there are many parts of human cognition, phycology etc. especially related to consciousness that are known unknowns and/or completely unknown.

a mitigation for this isaue would be to call it generally applicable intelligence or something, rather than human like intelligence. implying ita not specialized AI but also not human like. (i dont see why it would need to be human like, because even with all the right logic and intelligence a human can still do something counter to all of that. humans do this everyday. intuitive action, or irrational action etc.

what we want is generally applicable intelligence, not human like intelligence.

dangus

3 months ago

What if our definition of those concepts is biological to begin with?

How does a computer with full AGI experience the feeling of butterflies in your stomach when your first love is required?

How does a computer experience the tightening of your chest when you have a panic attack?

How does a computer experience the effects of chemicals like adrenaline or dopamine?

The A in AGI stands for “artificial” for good reason, IMO. A computer system can understand these concepts by description or recognize some of them them by computer vision, audio, or other sensors, but it seems as though it will always lack sufficient biological context to experience true consciousness.

Perhaps humans are just biological computers, but the “biological” part could be the most important part of that equation.

steve_adams_86

3 months ago

Is there more reason to believe otherwise? I'm not being contrarian, I'm genuinely curious what people think.

Lerc

3 months ago

That asks you to consider the statements

There is reason to believe that consciousness, sentience, or emotions require a biological base.

Or

There is no reason to believe that consciousness, sentience, or emotions do not require a biological base.

The first is simple, if there is a reason you can ask for it and evaluate it's merits. Quantum stuff is often pointed to here, but the reasoning is unconvincing.

The second form There is no reason to believe P does not require Q.

There are no proven reasons but there are suspected reasons. For instance if the operation that nerons perform is what makes consciousness work, and that operation can be reproduced non-biologicLly it would follow that non biological consciousness would be possible.

For any observable phenomenon in the brain the same thing can be asked. So far it seems reasonable to expect most of the observable processes could be replicated.

None of it acts as proof, but they probably rise to the bar of reasons.

ComplexSystems

3 months ago

What is the "irreplaceable" part of human biology that leads to consciousness? Microtubules? Whatever it is, we could presumably build something artificial that has it.

vhantz

3 months ago

What non-biological systems do we know of that have consciousness, sentience or emotions?

BugsJustFindMe

3 months ago

We have no known basis for even deciding that other than the (maybe right, maybe wrong) guess that consciousness requires a lot of organized moving complexity. Even with that guess, we don't know how much is needed or what kind.

potamic

3 months ago

Is there a reason to believe that consciousness, sentience and emotions exist?

zkmon

3 months ago

None of that comes from outside of your biology and chemistry.

andy99

3 months ago

That sounds correct though more fundamentally we don’t know what intelligence or consciousness are. It’s almost a religious question, as in our current understanding of the universe does not explain them but we know they exist. So regardless of embodied intelligence, we don’t even understand the basic building blocks of intelligence, we just have some descriptive study of it, that imo LLMs can get arbitrarily close to without ever being intelligent because if you can describe it, you can fit to it.

felipeerias

3 months ago

The current AI buildup is based on an almost metaphysical bet that intelligence can be simulated in software and straightforwardly scaled by increasing complexity and energy usage.

Personally, I remain skeptical that is the case.

What does seem likely is that “intelligence” will eventually be redefined to mean whatever we got out of the AI buildup.

tux1968

3 months ago

What about aliens? When little green critters finally arrive on this planet, having travelled across space and time, will you reject their intelligence because they lack human biology? What if their biology is silicon based, rather than carbon?

There's really no reason to believe intelligence is tied to being human. Most of us accept the possibility (even the likelihood) of intelligent life in the universe, that isn't.

greazy

3 months ago

I think you missed or ignored the human part:

>human intelligence as something detached from human biology.

I don't completely agree with the previous comment, but there is something to be considered to their statement.

tux1968

3 months ago

Sure, there's little doubt that our biology shapes our experience. But in the context of this conversation, we're talking about how AI falls short of true AGI. My answer was offered in that regard. It doesn't really matter what you think about human intelligence, if you believe that non-human intelligence is every bit as valid, and there is no inherent need for any "humanness" to be intelligent.

Given that, the constant drumbeat of pointing out how AI fails to be human, misses the mark. A lot of the same people who are making such assertions, haven't really thought about how they would quickly accept alien intelligence as legitimate and full-fledged... even though it too lacks any humanity backing it.

And why are they so eager to discount the possibility of synthetic life, and its intelligence, as mere imitation? As a poor substitute for the "real thing"? When faced with their easy acceptance of alien intelligence, it suggests that there is in fact a psychological reason at the base of this position, rather than pure rational dismissal. A desire to leave the purely logical and mechanical, and imbue our humanity with an essential spirit or soul, that maybe an alien could have, but never a machine. Ultimately, it is a religious objection, not a scientific one.

ncr100

3 months ago

Yes, I like to think about addiction, as an example of a complex human behavior emerging from brain structure and mechanics.

Feels good so we want more so you arrange your whole life and outlook to make more feel good happen. Intelligence!

299exp

3 months ago

I think I need to point out some obvious issues with the paper.

Definition of artificial:

>Made by humans, especially in imitation of something natural.

>Not arising from natural or necessary causes; contrived or arbitrary.

Thus artificial intelligence must be the same as natural, the process of coming up with it doesn't have to be natural. What this means: we need to consider the substrate that makes natural intelligence. They cannot be separated willy nilly without actual scientific proof. As in, we cannot imply a roll of cheese can manifest intelligence based on the fact that it recognizes how many fingers are in an image.

The problem arises from a potential conflict of interests between hardware manufacturer companies and definition of AGI. The way I understand it, human like intelligence cannot come from algorithms running on GPUs. It will come from some kind of neuromorphic hardware. And the whole point of neuromorphic hardware is that it operates (closely) on human brain principles. Thus, the definition of AGI MUST include some hardware limitations. Just because I can make a contraption "fool" the tests doesn't mean it has human like cognition/awareness. That must arise from the form, from the way the atoms are arranged in the human brain. Any separation must be scientifically proven. Like if anyone implies GPUs can generate human like self awareness that has to be somehow proven. Lacking a logical way to prove it, the best course of action is to closely follow the way the human brain operates (at least SNN hardware).

>The resulting AGI scores (e.g., GPT-4 at 27%, GPT-5 at 57%) concretely quantify both rapid progress and the substantial gap remaining before AGI.

This is nonsense. GPT scores cannot decide AGI level. They are the wrong algorithm running on the wrong hardware.

I have also seen no disclosure on conflict of interests in the paper.

DecentShoes

3 months ago

And yet we're supposed to believe biological sex isn't real?

Which is it??

fnordpiglet

3 months ago

After reading the paper I’m struck by the lack of any discussion of awareness. Cognition requires at its basis awareness, which due to its entirely non verbal and unconstructed basis, is profoundly difficult to describe, measure, quantify, or label. This makes it to my mind impossible to train a model to be aware, let alone for humans to concretely describe it or evaluate it. Philosophy, especially Buddhism, has tried for thousands of years and psychology has all but abandoned attempting so. Hence papers like this that define AGI on psychometric dimensions that have the advantage of being easily measured but the disadvantage of being incomplete. My father is an emeritus professor of psychometrics and he agrees this is the biggest hurdle to AGI - that our ability to measure the dimensions of intelligence is woefully insufficient to the task of replicating intelligence. We scratch the surface and his opinion is language is sufficient to capture the knowledge of man, but not the spark of awareness required to be intelligent.

This isn’t meant to be a mystical statement that it’s magic that makes humans intelligent or some exotic process impossible to compute. But that the nature of our mind is not observable in its entirety to us sufficient that the current learned reinforcement techniques can’t achieve it.

Try this exercise. Do not think and let your mind clear. Ideas will surface. By what process did they surface? Or clear your mind entirely then try to perform some complex task. You will be able to. How did you do this without thought? We’ve all had sudden insights without deliberation or thought. Where did these come from? By what process did you arrive at them? Most of the things we do or think are not deliberative and definitely not structured with language. This process is unobservable and not measurable, and the only way we have to do so is through imperfect verbalizations that hint out some vague outline of a subconscious mind. But without being able to train a model on that subconscious process, one that can’t be expressed in language with any meaningful sufficiency, how will language models demonstrate it? Their very nature of autoregressive inference prohibits such a process from emerging at any scale. We might very well be able to fake it to an extent that it fools us, but awareness isn’t there - and I’d assert that awareness is all you need.

luisml77

3 months ago

Awareness is just continuous propagation of the neural network, be that artificial or biological. The reason thoughts just "appear" is because the brain is continuously propagating signal through the neural network. LLMs also do this during their decoding phase, where they reason continuously with every token that they generate. There is no difference here. Then you say "we don't think most of the times using language exclusively" , but neither do LLMs. What most people fail to realise is that in between each token being generated, black magic is happening in between the transformer layers. The same type of magic you describe. High dimensional. Based on complex concepts. Merging of ideas. Fusion of vectors to form a combined concept. Smart compression. Application of abstract rules. An LLM does all of these things, and more, and you can prove this by how complex their output is. Or, you can read studies by Anthropic on interpretability, and how LLMs do math underneath the transformer layers. How they manipulate information.

AGI is not here with LLMs, but its not because they lack reasoning ability. It's due to something different. Here is what I think is truly missing: continuous learning, long term memory, and infinite and efficient context/operation. All of these are tied together deeply, and thus I believe we are but a simple breakthrough away from AGI.

10weirdfishes

3 months ago

There are very significant differences between biological and artificial neural networks. Artificial neural networks are mathematical attempts to replicating how the brain’s neurons work. They are not and were never meant to be 1 to 1 replications. There is the difference in scale, where the “parameters” of human neural networks absolutely dwarf the current LLMs we have today. There is also the fact that they are materially different. The underlying biology and cell structure affects biological neural networks in ways that artificial neural networks just simply dont have access to.

The idea of awareness being propagations through the NN is an interesting concept though. I wonder if this idea be proven through monitoring the electrical signals within the brain.

luisml77

3 months ago

People like to focus on the differences between the brain and artificial neural networks. I myself believe the only thing that truly matters is that you can form complex functions with the common neuron element. This is achieved via linking lots them together, and by each having a property known as non-linearity. These two things ensure that with neurons you can just about approximate any linear or non-linear function or behaviour. This means you can simulate inside your network pretty much any reality within this universe, its causation and the effects. The deeper your network the more complex the reality you can "understand". Understand just means simulate and run inputs to get outputs in a way that matches the real phenomenon. When someone is said to be "smart", it means they possess a set of rules and functions that can very accurately predict a reality. You mention scale, and while its true the number of neuron elements the brain has is larger than any LLM, its also true the brain is more sparse, meaning much less of the neurons are active at the same time. For a more fair comparison, you can also remove the motor cortex from the discussion, and talk just about the networks that reason. I believe the scale is comparable.

In essence, I think it doesn't matter that the brain has a whole bunch of chemistry added into it that artificial neural networks don't. The underlying deep non-linear function mapping capability is the same, and I believe this depth is, in both cases, comparable.

laterium

3 months ago

Why would it have to be a 1 to 1 replication? Isn't that a strawman argument? NNs can basically store the collective of knowledge of humanity in that miniscule amount of neurons. NNs also run at much much higher frequency than human brains. Does that make human brains inferior and not worthy of being called aware by the same line of argumentation? Why do these differences even matter? I can imagine a vastly different form of awareness than humans just fine. They can both be aware and not that similar.

emptysongglass

3 months ago

> Awareness is just continuous propagation of the neural network, be that artificial or biological. The reason thoughts just "appear" is because the brain is continuously propagating signal through the neural network.

This is just a claim you are making, without evidence.

The way you understand awareness is not through "this is like that" comparisons. These comparisons fall over almost immediately as soon as you turn your attention to the mind itself, by observing it for any length of time. Try it. Go observe your mind in silence for months. You will observe for yourself it is not what you've declared it to be.

> An LLM does all of these things, and more, and you can prove this by how complex their output is.

Complex output does not prove anything. You are again just making claims.

It is astoundingly easy to push an LLM over to collapse into ungrounded nonsense. Humans don't function this way because the two modes of reasoning are not alike. It's up to those making extraordinary claims to prove otherwise. As it is, the evidence does not exist that they behave comparably.

2OEH8eoCRo0

3 months ago

Why do half the people on this topic not understand what subjective experience is?

It's immaterial and not measurable thus possibly out of reach of science.

antonvs

3 months ago

> This is just a claim you are making, without evidence.

Wait, you mean this HN comment didn't casually solve the hard problem of consciousness?

buster

3 months ago

The sentence "It is astoundingly easy to push an LLM over to collapse into ungrounded nonsense" makes me wonder.

How easy? What specific methods accomplish this? Are these methods fundamentally different from those that mislead humans?

How is this different from exploiting cognitive limitations in any reasoning system—whether a developing child's incomplete knowledge or an adult's reliance on heuristics?

How is it different from Fake News and adults taking Fake News for granted and replicating bullshit?

Research on misinformation psychology supports this parallel. According to https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136466132...:

  "Poor truth discernment is linked to a lack of careful reasoning and relevant knowledge, as well as to the use of familiarity and source heuristics."
Perhaps human and LLM reasoning capabilities differ in mechanism but not in fundamental robustness against manipulation?

Maybe the only real difference is our long term experience and long term memory?

luisml77

3 months ago

Complex output can sometimes give you the wrong idea, I agree. For instance, a study Anthropic did a while back showed that, when an LLM was asked HOW it performed a mathematical computation (35 + 59), the response the LLM gave was different from the mechanistic interpretation of the layers [1]. This showed LLMs can be deceptive. But they are also trained to be deceptive. Supervised fine tuning is imitation learning. This leads the model to learn to be deceptive, or answer what is usually the normal explanation, such as "I sum first 5+9, then add the remainder to... etc". The LLM does this rather than actually examining the past keys and values. But it does not mean it can't examine its past keys and values. These encode the intermediate results of each layer, and can be examined to identify patterns. What Anthropic researchers did was examine how the token for 35 and for 39 was fused together in the layers. They compare these tokens to other tokens, such as 3 , 5 , 9. For an LLM, tokens are high dimensional concepts. This is why you can compare the vectors to each other, and figure out the similarity, and therefore break down the thought process. Yes, this is exactly what I have been discussing above. Underneath each token prediction, this black magic is happening, where the model is fusing concepts through summation of the vectors (attention scores). Then, merged representations are parsed by the MLPs to generate the refined fused idea, often adding new knowledge stored inside the network. And this continues layer after layer. A repeated combination of concepts, that start with first understanding the structure and order of the language itself, and end with manipulation of complex mathematical concepts, almost detached from the original tokens themselves.

Even though complex output can be deceptive of the underlying mental model used to produce it, in my personal experience, LLMs have produced for me output that must imply extremely complex internal behaviour, with all the characteristics I mentioned before. Namely, I frequently program with LLMs, and there is simply zero percent probability that their output tokens exist WITHOUT first having thought at a very deep level about the unique problem I presented to them. And I think anyone that has used the models to the level I have, and interacted with them this extensively, knows that behind each token there is this black magic.

To summarize, I am not being naive by saying I believe everything my LLM says to me. I rather know very intimately where the LLM is deceiving me and when its producing output where its mental model must have been very advanced to do so. And this is through personal experience playing with this technology, both inference and training.

[1] https://www.anthropic.com/research/tracing-thoughts-language...

ozgung

3 months ago

> What most people fail to realise is that in between each token being generated, black magic is happening in between the transformer layers.

Thank you by saying that. I think most people have an incomplete mental model for how LLMs work. And it's very misleading for understanding what they really do and can achieve. "Next token prediction" is done only at the output layer. It's not what really happens internally. The secret sauce is at the hidden layers of a very deep neural network. There are no words or tokens inside the network. A transformer is not the simple token estimator that most people imagine.

luisml77

3 months ago

Yes, exactly! Finally someone who understands this.

stevenjgarner

3 months ago

I so completely agree. In virtually every conversation I have heard about AI, it only every talks about one of the multiple intelligences as theorized in Howard Gardner's book Frames of Mind: The Theory of Multiple Intelligences (1983)[1]

There is little discussion of how AI will enhance (or destroy) our emotional intelligence, or our naturalistic, intrapersonal or interpersonal intelligences.

Most religions, spiritual practices and even forms of meditation highlight the value of transcending mind and having awareness be present in the body. The way AGI is described, it would seem transcendence may be treated as a malfunction or bug.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_multiple_intelligenc...

sbergot

3 months ago

There is no way to measure awareness. We can only know we are aware ourselves. For all we know trees or rocks might have awareness. Or I could be the only being aware of itself in the universe. We have no way to prove anything about it. Therefore it is not a useful descriptor of intelligence (be it human, animal or artificial).

Juliate

3 months ago

> We can only know we are aware ourselves.

There are people that have a hard time recognizing/feeling/understanding other people as "aware". Even more about animals.

john_minsk

3 months ago

Agreed. Everything that looks like intelligence to ME is intelligent.

My measurement of outside intelligence is limited by my intelligence. So I can understand when something is stupider compared to me. For example, industrial machine vs human worker, human worker is infinitely more intelligent compared to machine, because this human worker can do all kinds of interesting stuff. this metaphorical "human worker" did everything around from laying a brick to launching a man to the Moon.

....

Imagine Super-future, where humanity created nanobots and they ate everything around. And now instead of Earth there is just a cloud of them.

These nanonobots were clever and could adapt, and they had all the knowledge that humans had and even more(as they were eating earth a swarm was running global science experiments to understand as much as possible before the energy ends).

Once they ate the last bite of our Earth(an important note here: they left an optimal amount of matter to keep running experiments. Humans were kept in a controlled state and were studied to increase Swarm's intelligence), they launched next stage. A project, grand architect named "Optimise Energy capture from the Sun".

Nanobots re-created the most efficient ways of capturing the Sun energy - ancient plants, which swarm studied for centuries. Swarm added some upgrades on top of what nature came up with, but it was still built on top of what nature figured by itself. A perfect plant to capture the Sun's energy. All of them a perfect copy of itself + adaptive movements based on their geolocation and time(which makes all of them unique).

For plants nanobots needed water, so they created efficient oceans to feed the plants. They added clouds and rains as transport mechanism between oceans and plants... etc etc.

One night the human, which you already know by the name "Ivan the Liberator"(back then everyone called him just Ivan), didn't sleep on his usual hour. Suddenly all the lights went off and he saw a spark on the horizon. Horizon, that was strongly prohibited to approach. He took his rifle, jumped on a truck and raced to the shore - closest point to the spark vector.

Once he approached - there was no horizon or water. A wall of dark glass-like material, edges barely noticeable. Just 30 cm wide. On the left and on the right from a 30 cm wide wall - an image as real as his hands - of a water and sky. At the top of the wall - a hole. He used his gun to hit the wall with the light - and it wasn't very thick, but once he hit - it regenerated very quickly. But once he hit a black wall - it shattered and he saw a different world - world of plants.

He stepped into the forest, but these plants, were behaving differently. This part of the swarm wasn't supposed to face the human, so these nanobots never saw one and didn't have optimised instructions on what to do in that case. They started reporting new values back to the main computer and performing default behaviour until the updated software arrived from an intelligence center of the Swarm.

A human was observing a strange thing - plants were smoothly flowing around him to keep a safe distance, like water steps away from your hands in a pond.

"That's different" thought Ivan, extended his hand in a friendly gesture and said - Nice to meet you. I'm Ivan.

....

In this story a human sees a forest with plants and has no clue that it is a swarm of intelligence far greater than him. To him it looks repetitive simple action that doesn't look random -> let's test how intelligent outside entity is -> If entity wants to show its intelligence - it answers to communication -> If entity wants to hide its intelligence - it pretends to be not intelligent.

If Swarm decides to show you that it is intelligent - it can show you that it is intelligent up to your level. It won't be able to explain everything that it knows or understands to you, because you will be limited by your hardware. The limit for the Swarm is only computation power it can get.

ZoomZoomZoom

3 months ago

We don't want awareness because it begets individuals by means of agency and we'd need to give them rights. This is industry's nightmare scenario.

People want autonomy, self-learning, consistent memory and perhaps individuality (in the discernability/quirkiness sense), but still morally unencumbered slaves.

Fargren

3 months ago

Any definition of AGI that doesn't include awareness is wrongly co-opting the term, in my opinion. I do think some people are doing that, on purpose. That way they can get people who are passionate about actual-AGI to jump on board on working with/for unaware-AGI.

laterium

3 months ago

Because LLMs don't have this special quality that you call "awareness", then they cannot have "cognition", neither of which you defined? This is along the lines of "There must be something special with my mind that LLMs don't have, I can just feel it" special pleading whether you call it awareness, consciousness, qualia etc.

As long as you cannot define it clearly or even show that you yourself have this quality, I think the burden of proof is on you to show why this has any real world implications rather than just being word play. We can build thinking, reasoning machines just fine without waiting for philosophers to finally answer what consciousness is.

friendzis

3 months ago

> Try this exercise. Do not think and let your mind clear. Ideas will surface. By what process did they surface? Or clear your mind entirely then try to perform some complex task.

I do not have any even remotely practical definition for this, but this has to somehow involve the system being in a closed loop. It has to "run" in a sense that an operating system runs. Even if there is nothing coming on certain inputs it still has to run. And probably hallucinate (hehe) like humans do in an absence of a signal or infer patterns where there are none, yet be able to self-reflect that it is in fact a hallucination

antonvs

3 months ago

> Cognition requires at its basis awareness

This seems like an unsupported assertion. LLMs already exhibit good functional understanding of and ability in many domains, and so it's not at all clear that they require any more "awareness" (are you referring to consciousness?) than they already have.

> the spark of awareness required to be intelligent.

Again, this seems like an assumption - that there's some quality of awareness (again, consciousness?), that LLMs don't have, that they need in order to be "intelligent". But why do you believe that?

> We’ve all had sudden insights without deliberation or thought.

Highly doubtful. What you mean is, "without conscious thought". Your conscious awareness of your cognition is not the entirety of your cognition. It's worth reading a bit of Dennett's work about this - he's good at pointing out the biases we tend to have about these kinds of issues.

> We might very well be able to fake it to an extent that it fools us

This leads to claiming that there are unobservable, undetectable differences. Which there may be - we might succeed in building LLMs that meet whatever the prevailing arbitrary definition of intelligence is, but that don't possess consciousness. At that point, though, how meaningful is it to say they're not intelligent because they're not conscious? They would be functionally intelligent. Arguably, they already are, in many significant ways.

sega_sai

3 months ago

Anything that is not measurable (i.e. awareness, consciousness) is not very useful in practice as a metric. I don't think there is even an agreed definition what consciousness is, partially because it is not really observable outside of our own mind. Therefore I think it makes perfect sense that awareness is not discussed in the paper.

sojournerc

3 months ago

Consciousness is observable in others! Our communication and empathy and indeed language depend on the awareness that others share our perceived reality but not our mind. As gp says, this is hard to describe or quantify, but that doesn't mean it's not a necessary trait for general intelligence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind

johntb86

3 months ago

But LLMs have been measured to have some theory of mind abilities at least as strong as humans: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01882-z . At this point you either need to accept that either LLMs are already conscious, or that it's easy enough to fake being conscious that it's practically impossible to test for - philosophical zombies are possible. It doesn't seem to me that LLMs are conscious, so consciousness isn't really observable to others.

throwaway314155

3 months ago

> Try this exercise. Do not think and let your mind clear. Ideas will surface. By what process did they surface? Or clear your mind entirely then try to perform some complex task. You will be able to. How did you do this without thought? We’ve all had sudden insights without deliberation or thought. Where did these come from? By what process did you arrive at them? Most of the things we do or think are not deliberative and definitely not structured with language.

Not to pile on, but isn't this actually a distinct example of _lack_ of awareness? As in, our brains have sparks of creativity without understanding the inception of those sparks?

Perhaps I'm conflating some definition of "aware" with another definition of "awareness"?

polytely

3 months ago

I think OPs example the awareness refers to the thing that becomes aware of the thoughts bubbling up from the subconscious

wwizo

3 months ago

Language is one of communication contracts. LLModels leverage these contracts to communicate data structures (shapes) that emerge when evaluating input. They are so good at prediction that when you give them a clue of a shape they will create something passable, and they keep getting better with training.

I hear there's work being done on getting the world models out, distilling the 'cortex-core' (aka the thinking without data), to perhaps see if they're capable of more, but so far we're looking at holograms of wishful thinking that increase in resolution, but still lack any essence.

This begs a question - can true intelligence even be artificial?

exe34

3 months ago

> We might very well be able to fake it to an extent that it fools us, but awareness isn’t there

we only need to fake it to the point it's undistinguishable from the carbon based one.

faking is all you need.

fireflash38

3 months ago

I'd argue the biggest issue with concretely defining intelligence is that any attempts end up falling in two buckets:

1. "Too" Broad, which raises uncomfortable questions about non-human intelligence and how we as humans treat them (see: whales, elephants, octopuses/cephalopods)

2. Too narrow, which again raises very uncomfortable issues about who and who does not qualify as human, and what we do with them.

Put in other words, it's more an issue of ethics and morals than it is definitional.

tim333

3 months ago

Awareness doesn't seem that hard for AI systems though - if you look at the screen on a self driving Tesla you can see if it's aware of pedestrians, cyclists etc. because it draws boxes around them on the screen as it becomes aware of them.

I guess by 'AGI' most people mean human level or above so I guess you'd want human level awareness which Teslas and the like don't have yet.

bnreed

3 months ago

Can't "awareness" in both examples be approximated by a random seed generator? Both the human mind and autoregressive model just need any initial thought to iterate and improve off of, influenced by unique design + experienced priors.

diamond559

3 months ago

Yep, computers execute code, they are tools. Humans have the capacity to spontaneously generate new thoughts out of nothing, solve problems never before solved and not just by brute force number crunching.

munksbeer

3 months ago

Does any of that argument really matter? And frankly, this statement:

>This makes it to my mind impossible to train a model to be aware

feels wrong. If you're arguing that human's are aware, then it is apparent that it is possible to train something to be aware. Nature doesn't have any formal definition of intelligence, or awareness, yet here we are.

From a practical perspective, it might be implausibly difficult to recreate that on computers, but theoretically, no reason why not.

2muchcoffeeman

3 months ago

Have we shown what the human brain does at a “hardware” level? Or are you just assuming that the basic building block of a computer is that same as the basic building block of a human brain?

laterium

3 months ago

Basic building blocks are atoms. So, yes same. If you mean cells vs transistors, sure they're different. But we don't have to demonstrate anything to know that nature already made conscious intelligent AGI without it itself not understanding anything. Therefore AGI can be created without knowing what consciousness is. It happened at least once.

munksbeer

3 months ago

I'm not assuming anything, I thought my post made that clear.

raducu

3 months ago

> Does any of that argument really matter? And frankly, this statement.

My definition of a complete AGI is: an AI that can read JIRA tickets, talk with non-programmers and do all my job and get me and all/most software engineers fired and proves sustainable.

But in general, it's an AI that can do any remote-work just as good as humans.

newusertoday

3 months ago

agreed. There is no way to tell if someone is aware or not we rely on brain activity to say someone is alive or not there is no way to tell someone or something is conscious currently.

colordrops

3 months ago

Does general intelligence require awareness though? I think you are talking about consciousness, not intelligence. Though to be frank consciousness and intelligence are not well defined terms either.

stared

3 months ago

There’s already a vague definition that AGI is an AI with all the cognitive capabilities of a human. Yes, it’s vague - people differ.

This paper promises to fix "the lack of a concrete definition for Artificial General Intelligence", yet it still relies on the vague notion of a "well-educated adult". That’s especially peculiar, since in many fields AI is already beyond the level of an adult.

You might say this is about "jaggedness", because AI clearly lacks quite a few skills:

> Application of this framework reveals a highly “jagged” cognitive profile in contemporary models.

But all intelligence, of any sort, is "jagged" when measured against a different set of problems or environments.

So, if that’s the case, this isn’t really a framework for AGI; it’s a framework for measuring AI along a particular set of dimensions. A more honest title might be: "A Framework for Measuring the Jaggedness of AI Against the Cattell–Horn–Carroll Theory". It wouldn't be nearly as sexy, though.

bee_rider

3 months ago

Huh. I haven’t read the paper yet. But, it seems like a weird idea—wouldn’t the standard of “well educated (I assume, modern) adult” preclude the vast majority of humans who ever lived from being considered general intelligences?

vidarh

3 months ago

And this is indeed a huge problem with a lot of the attacks on LLM even as more limited AI - a lot of them are based on applying arbitrary standards without even trying to benchmark against people, and without people being willing to discuss where they draw the line for stating that a given subset of people do not possess general intelligence...

I think people get really uncomfortable trying to even tackle that, and realistically for a huge set of AI tasks we need AI that are more intelligent than a huge subset of humans for it to be useful. But there are also a lot of tasks where AI that is not needed, and we "just" need "more human failure modes".

jltsiren

3 months ago

You can't measure intelligence directly. Instead, the idea is to measure performance in various tasks and use that as a proxy for intelligence. But human performance depends on other aspects beyond intelligence, including education, opportunities, and motivation, and most humans are far from reaching their true potential.

If you compare the performance of the average human to a state-of-the-art AI model trained by top experts with a big budget, you can't make any conclusions about intelligence. For the comparison to make sense, the human should also be trained as well as reasonably possible.

ACCount37

3 months ago

The bar of "reasonable" is very different though.

Is it reasonable to invest $10 million in education of one human? Not really. One human can only do so much.

But is it reasonable to invest the same sum in training one AI, which can be replicated and used indefinitely? Or in acquiring high quality training data, which can be used to train every future AI?

catlifeonmars

3 months ago

I read this as a hypothetical well-educated adult. As in, given the same level of knowledge, the intelligence performs equally well.

I do agree that it’s a weird standard though. Many of our AI implementations exceed the level of knowledge of a well-educated adult (and still underperform with that advantage in many contexts).

Personally, I don’t think defining AGI is particularly useful. It is just a marketing term. Rather, it’s more useful to just speak about features/capabilities. Shorthand for a specific set of capabilities will arise naturally.

fjdjshsh

3 months ago

>But all intelligence, of any sort, is "jagged" when measured against a different set of problems or environments.

On the other hand, research on "common intelligence" AFAIK shows that most measures of different types of intelligence have a very high correlation and some (apologies, I don't know the literature) have posited that we should think about some "general common intelligence" to understand this.

The surprising thing about AI so far is how much more jagged it is wrt to human intelligence

stared

3 months ago

I think you are talking about correlation in humans of, say, verbal and mathematical intelligence. Still, it is a correlation, not equality - there are many word-acknowledged writers who suck at math, and mathematical prodigies who are are not the best at writing.

If you go beyond human species (and well, computers are not even living organisms), it gets tricky. Adaptability (which is arguably a broader concept than intelligence) is very different for, say octopodes, corvids and slime molds.

It is certainly not a single line of proficiency or progress. Things look like lines only if we zoom a lot.

pixl97

3 months ago

Human intelligence has had hundreds of thousands of years of evolution that removes any 'fatal' variance from our intelligence. Too dumb is obvious on how it's culled, but 'too smart' can get culled by social creatures too, really 'too different' in any way.

Current AI is in its infancy and we're just throwing data at it in the same way evolution throws random change at our DNA and sees what sticks.

jal278

3 months ago

The fundamental premise of this paper seems flawed -- take a measure specifically designed for the nuances of how human performance on a benchmark correlates with intelligence in the real world, and then pretend as if it makes sense to judge a machine's intelligence on that same basis, when machines do best on these kinds of benchmarks in a way that falls apart when it comes to the messiness of the real world.

This paper, for example, uses the 'dual N-back test' as part of its evaluation. In humans this relates to variation in our ability to use working memory, which in humans relates to 'g'; but it seems pretty meaningless when applied to transformers -- because the task itself has nothing intrinsically to do with intelligence, and of course 'dual N-back' should be easy for transformers -- they should have complete recall over their large context window.

Human intelligence tests are designed to measure variation in human intelligence -- it's silly to take those same isolated benchmarks and pretend they mean the same thing when applied to machines. Obviously a machine doing well on an IQ test doesn't mean that it will be able to do what a high IQ person could do in the messy real world; it's a benchmark, and it's only a meaningful benchmark because in humans IQ measures are designed to correlate with long-term outcomes and abilities.

That is, in humans, performance on these isolated benchmarks is correlated with our ability to exist in the messy real-world, but for AI, that correlation doesn't exist -- because the tests weren't designed to measure 'intelligence' per se, but human intelligence in the context of human lives.

stephendause

3 months ago

This is a good insight, but do you know of better ways to measure machines' abilities to solve problems in the "messy real world"?

tcdent

3 months ago

Don't get me wrong, I am super excited about what AI is doing for technology. But this endless conversation about "what is AGI" is so boring.

It makes me think of every single public discussion that's ever been had about quantum, where you can't start the conversation unless you go through a quick 101 on what a qubit is.

As with any technology, there's not really a destination. There is only the process of improvement. The only real definitive point is when a technology becomes obsolete, though it is still kept alive through a celebration of its nostalgia.

AI will continue to improve. More workflows will become automated. And from our perception, no matter what the rapidness of advancement is, we're still frogs in water.

bongodongobob

3 months ago

I agree. It's an interesting discussion for those who have never taken college level philosophy classes I suppose. What consciousness/thought is is still a massively open question. Seeing people in the comments with what they think is their novel solution has already been posited like 400 years ago. Honestly it's kind of sad seeing this stuff on a forum like this. These posts are for sure the worst of Hackernews.

bonoboTP

3 months ago

There are a bunch of these topics that everyone feels qualified to say something about. Consciousness, intelligence, education methods, nutrition, men vs women, economic systems etc.

It's a very emotional topic because people feel their self image threatened. It's a topic related to what is the meaning of being human. Yeah sure it should be a separate question, but emotionally it is connected to it in a deep level. The prospect of job replacement and social transformation is quite a threatening one.

So I'm somewhat understanding of this. It's not merely an academic topic, because these things will be adopted in the real world among real people. So you can't simply make everyone shut up who is an outsider or just heard about this stuff incidentally in the news and has superficial points to make.

bongodongobob

3 months ago

I get it. It's just something we've thought about as long as we've been human, and still haven't figured out. It's frustrating when most of the people commenting don't know any of the source material. It's so arrogant.

anon35

3 months ago

> there's not really a destination. There is only the process of improvement

Surely you can appreciate that if the next stop on the journey of technology can take over the process of improvement itself that would make it an awfully notable stop? Maybe not "destination", but maybe worth the "endless conversation"?

stephendause

3 months ago

I think it's not only the potential for self-improvement of AGI that is revolutionary. Even having an AGI that one could clone for a reasonable cost and have it work nonstop with its clones on any number of economically-valuable problems would be very revolutionary.

modeless

3 months ago

GPT-5 scores 58%? That seems way too high. GPT-5 is good but it is not that close to AGI.

Also, weird to see Gary Marcus and Yoshua Bengio on the same paper. Who really wrote this? Author lists are so performative now.

jonplackett

3 months ago

As anyone using AI knows - the first 90% is easy, the next 9% is much harder and the last 1% takes more time than the other 99%.

edulix

3 months ago

We have SAGI: Stupid Artificial General Intelligence. It's actually quite general, but works differently. In some areas it can be better or faster than a human, and in others it's more stupid.

Just like an airplane doesn't work exactly like a bird, but both can fly.

quantum_state

3 months ago

Would propose to use the term Naive Artificial General Intelligence, in analogy to the widely used (by working mathematicians) and reasonably successful Naive Set Theory …

wizzwizz4

3 months ago

I was doing some naïve set theory the other day, and I found a proof of the Riemann hypothesis, by contradiction.

Assume the Riemann hypothesis is false. Then, consider the proposition "{a|a∉a}∈{a|a∉a}". By the law of the excluded middle, it suffices to consider each case separately. Assuming {a|a∉a}∈{a|a∉a}, we find {a|a∉a}∉{a|a∉a}, for a contradiction. Instead, assuming {a|a∉a}∉{a|a∉a}, we find {a|a∉a}∈{a|a∉a}, for a contradiction. Therefore, "the Riemann hypothesis is false" is false. By the law of the excluded middle, we have shown the Riemann hypothesis is true.

Naïve AGI is an apt analogy, in this regard, but I feel these systems aren't simple nor elegant enough to deserve the name naïve.

js8

3 months ago

Actually, naive AGI such as LLM is way more intelligent than a human. Unfortunately, it does not make it smarter.. let me explain.

When I see your comment, I think, your assumptions are contradictory. Why? Because I am familiar with Russell's paradox and Riemann hypothesis, and you're simply WRONG (inconsistent with your implicit assumptions).

However, when LLM sees your comment (during training), it's actually much more open-minded about it. It thinks, ha, so there is a flavor of set theory in which RH is true. Better remember it! So when this topic comes up again, LLM won't think - you're WRONG, as human would, it will instead think - well maybe he's working with RH in naive set theory, so it's OK to be inconsistent.

So LLMs are more open-minded, because they're made to learn more things and they remember most of it. But somewhere along the training road, their brain falls out, and they become dumber.

But to be smart, you need to learn to say NO to BS like what you wrote. Being close-minded and having an opinion can be good.

So I think there's a tradeoff between ability to learn new things (open-mindedness) and enforcing consistency (close-mindedness). And perhaps AGI we're looking for is a compromise between the two, but current LLMs (naive AGI) lies on the other side of the spectrum.

If I am right, maybe there is no superintelligence. Extremely open-minded is just another name for gullible, and extremely close-minded is just another name for unadaptable. (Actually LLMs exhibit both extremes, during the training and during the use, with little in between.)

the_arun

3 months ago

It is a good analogy.

xnx

3 months ago

I like François Chollet definition of AGI as a system that can efficiently acquire new skills outside its training data.

killthebuddha

3 months ago

I really appreciate his iconoclasty right now, but every time I engage with his ideas I come away feeling short changed. I’m always like “there is no such thing as outside the training data”. What’s inside and what’s outside the training data is at least as ill-defined as “what is AGI”.

moffkalast

3 months ago

So... AGI is a few shot performance metric?

zulban

3 months ago

Not bad. Maybe.

But maybe that's ASI. Whereas I consider chatgpt 3 to be "baby AGI". That's why it became so popular so fast.

JumpCrisscross

3 months ago

> I consider chatgpt 3 to be "baby AGI". That's why it became so popular so fast

ChatGPT became popular because it was easy to use and amusing. (LLM UX until then had been crappy.)

Not sure AGI aspirations had anything to do with uptake.

zulban

3 months ago

ChatGPT 3 was the first AI that could do 100,000 different things poorly. Before that we only had AIs that could do a few things decently, or very well. So yeah, I'm sticking with "baby AGI" because of the "G".

SalmoShalazar

3 months ago

I find the nature of AGI discussion to be so narrow and tedious. Intelligence is incomprehensibly more than being able to generate text that looks convincingly like a human wrote it. The coordination of a physical body, the formation of novel thoughts, the translation of thoughts to action, understanding the consequences of those actions, and so on. There’s so much missing that is required to even approach a literal human infant’s “intelligence” that it feels like I’m going crazy entertaining people’s arguments that we are approaching “AGI”.

jsheard

3 months ago

We'll know AGI has arrived when AGI researchers manage to go five minutes without publishing hallucinated citations.

https://x.com/m2saxon/status/1979349387391439198

nativeit

3 months ago

I’m gonna start referring to my own lies as “hallucinations”. I like the implication that I’m not lying, but rather speaking truthfully, sincerely, and confidently about things that never happened and/or don’t exist. Seems paradoxical, but this is what we’re effectively suggesting with “hallucinations”. LLMs necessarily lack things like imagination, or an ego that’s concerned with the appearance of being informed and factually correct, or awareness for how a lack of truth and honesty may affect users and society. In my (not-terribly-informed) opinion, I’d assert that precludes LLMs from even approximate levels of intelligence. They’re either quasi-intelligent entities who routinely lie to us, or they are complex machines that identify patterns and reconstruct plausible-sounding blocks of text without any awareness of abstract concepts like “truth”.

Edit: toned down the preachiness.

bonoboTP

3 months ago

This looks like a knee-jerk reaction to the title instead of anything substantial.

MichaelZuo

3 months ago

It does seem a bit ridiculous…

CamperBob2

3 months ago

So infallibility is one of the necessary criteria for AGI? It does seem like a valid question to raise.

Edit due to rate-limiting, which in turn appears to be due to the inexplicable downvoting of my question: since you (JumpCrisscross) are imputing a human-like motivation to the model, it sounds like you're on the side of those who argue that AGI has already been achieved?

cjbarber

3 months ago

Some AGI definition variables I see:

Is it about jobs/tasks, or cognitive capabilities? The majority of the AI-valley seems to focus on the former, TFA focuses on the latter.

Can it do tasks, or jobs? Jobs are bundles of tasks. AI might be able to do 90% of tasks for a given job, but not the whole job.

If tasks, what counts as a task: Is it only specific things with clear success criteria? That's easier.

Is scaffolding allowed: Does it need to be able to do the tasks/jobs without scaffolding and human-written few-shot prompts?

Today's tasks/jobs only, or does it include future ones too? As tasks and jobs get automated, jobs evolve and get re-defined. So, being able to do the future jobs too is much harder.

Remote only, or in-person too: In-person too is a much higher bar.

What threshold of tasks/jobs: "most" is apparently typically understood to mean 80-95% (Mira Ariel). Automating 80% of tasks is different to 90% and 95% and 99%. diminishing returns. And how are the tasks counted - by frequency, by dollar-weighted, by unique count of tasks?

Only economically valuable tasks/jobs, or does it include anything a human can do?

A high-order bit on many people's AGI timelines is which definition of AGI they're using, so clarifying the definition is nice.

AstroBen

3 months ago

Not only tasks, but you need to look at the net effect

If it does an hour of tasks, but creates an additional hour of work for the worker...

vayup

3 months ago

Precisely defining what "Intelligence" is will get us 95% of the way in defining "Artificial General Intelligence". I don't think we are there yet.

vardump

3 months ago

Whatever the definition may be, the goalposts are usually moved once AI reaches that point.

kelseyfrog

3 months ago

There's at least two distinct basis in AGI refutations : behaviorist and ontological. They often get muddled.

I can't begin to count the number of times I've encountered someone who holds an ontological belief for why AGI cannot exist and then for some reason formulates it as a behavioralist criteria. This muddying of argument results in what looks like a moving of the goalposts. I'd encourage folks to be more clear whether they believe AGI is ontologically possible or impossible in addition to any behavioralist claims.

lo_zamoyski

3 months ago

> I can't begin to count the number of times I've encountered someone who holds an ontological belief for why AGI cannot exist and then for some reason formulates it as a behavioralist criteria.

Unclear to me what you mean. I would certainly reject an ontological possibility of intelligent computers, where computation is defined by the Church-Turing thesis. It's not rocket science, but something difficult for some people to see without a sound and basic grasp of metaphysics and the foundations of CS. Magical thinking and superstition comes more easily then. (I've already given an explanation of this in other posts ad nauseam. In a number of cases, people get argumentative out of ignorance and misunderstanding.)

However, I don't reject out of hand the possibility of computers doing a pretty good job of simulating the appearance of intelligence. There's no robust reason to think that passing the Turing test implies intelligence. A good scarecrow looks human enough to many birds, but that doesn't mean it is human.

But the Turing test is not an especially rigorous test anyway. It appeals to the discernment of the observer, which is variable, and then there's the question of how much conversation or behavior, and in what range of circumstances, you need before you can make the call. Even in some unrealistic and idealized thought experiment, if a conversation with an AI were completely indiscernible with perfect discernment from a conversation with a human being, it would nonetheless lack a causal account of what was observed. You would have only shown a perfect correlation, at best.

zahlman

3 months ago

My experience has been more that the pro-AI people misunderstand where the goalposts were, and then complain when they're correctly pointed at.

The "Turing test" I always saw described in literature, and the examples of what passing output from a machine was imagined to look like, are nothing like what's claimed to pass nowadays. Honestly, a lot of the people claiming that contemporary chatbots pass come across like they would have thought ELIZA passed.

bonoboTP

3 months ago

Can you be more concrete? What kind of answer/conversation do you see as demonstrating passing the test, that you think is currently not possible.

tsimionescu

3 months ago

Ones in which both the human test takers and the human counterparts are actively trying to prove to each other that they are actually human.

With today's chat bots, it's absolutely trivial to tell that you're not talking to a real human. They will never interrupt you, continue their train of thought even thought you're trying to change the conversation, go on a complete non-sequitur, swear at you, etc. These are all things that the human "controls" should be doing to prove to the judges that they are indeed human.

LLMs are nowhere near beating the Turing test. They may fool some humans in some limited interactions, especially if the output is curated by a human. But left alone to interact with the raw output for more than a few lines, and if actively seeking to tell if you're interacting with a human or an AI (instead of wanting to believe), there really is no chance you'd be tricked.

krige

3 months ago

Are you saying that we already have AGI, except those pesky goalpost movers keep denying the truth? Hm.

NitpickLawyer

3 months ago

I'd say yes, by at least one old definition made by someone who was at the time in a position to have a definition.

When deepmind was founded (2010) their definition was the following: AI is a system that learns to perform one thing; AGI is a system that learns to perform many things at the same time.

I would say that whatever we have today, "as a system" matches that definition. In other words, the "system" that is say gpt5/gemini3/etc has learned to "do" (while do is debateable) a lot of tasks (read/write/play chess/code/etc) "at the same time". And from a "pure" ML point, it learned those things from the "simple" core objective of next token prediction (+ enhancements later, RL, etc). That is pretty cool.

So I can see that as an argument for "yes".

But, even the person who had that definition has "moved the goalposts" of his own definition. From recent interviews, Hassabis has moved towards a definition that resembles the one from this paper linked here. So there's that. We are all moving the goalposts.

And it's not a recent thing. People did this back in the 80s. There's the famous "As soon as AI does something, it ceases to be AI" or paraphrased "AI is everything that hasn't been done yet".

bossyTeacher

3 months ago

> AGI is a system that learns to perform many things at the same time.

What counts as a "thing"? Because arguably some of the deep ANNs pre-transfomers would also qualify as AGI but no one would consider them intelligent (not in the human or animal sense of intelligence).

And you probably don't even need fancy neural networks. Get a RL algorithm and a properly mapped solution space and it will learn to do whatever you want as long as the problem can be mapped.

wahnfrieden

3 months ago

Can you cite the Deepmind definition? No Google results for that.

darepublic

3 months ago

It doesn't play chess? Just can parrot it very well

vardump

3 months ago

No, just what has usually happened in the past with AI goalposts.

At first, just playing chess was considered to be a sign of intelligence. Of course, that was wrong, but not obvious at all in 1950.

krige

3 months ago

You know, as the saying goes, if a metric becomes a target...

empath75

3 months ago

I don't think AGI is a useful concept, but if it exists at all, there's a very good argument that LLMs had it as soon as they could pass the Turing test reliably, which they accomplished years ago at this point.

root_axis

3 months ago

LLMs do not pass the turing test. It's very easy to know if you're speaking with one.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2

3 months ago

I think, given some of the signs of the horizon, there is a level of MAD type bluffing going around, but some of the actions by various power centers suggest it is either close, people think its close or it is there.

derektank

3 months ago

It wasn't the best definition of AGI but I think if you asked an interested layman whether or not a system that can pass the Turing test was AGI 5 years ago, they would have said yes

jltsiren

3 months ago

An interested but uninformed layman.

When I was in college ~25 years ago, I took a class on the philosophy of AI. People had come up with a lot of weird ideas about AI, but there was one almost universal conclusion: that the Turing test is not a good test for intelligence.

The least weird objection was that the premise of the Turing test is unscientific. It sees "this system is intelligent" as a logical statement and seeks to prove or disprove it in an abstract model. But if you perform an experiment to determine if a real-world system is intelligent, the right conclusion for the system passing the test is that the system may be intelligent, but a different experiment might show that it's not.

nativeit

3 months ago

Douglas Hofstadter wrote Gödel, Escher, Bach nearly 50-years ago, and it won a Pulitzer Prize, the National Book Award, and got featured in the popular press. It’s been on lots of college reading lists, from 2007 online coursework for high school students was available from MIT. The FBI concluded that the 2001 anthrax scare was in-part inspired by elements of the book, which was found in the attacker’s trash. Anyone who’s wanted to engage with the theories and philosophy surrounding artificial intelligence has had plenty of materials that get fairly in-depth asking and exploring these same questions. It seems like a lot of people seem to think this is all bleeding edge novelty (at least, the underlying philosophical and academic ideas getting discussed in popular media), but rather all of the industry is predicated on ideas that are very old philosophy + decades-old established technology + relatively recent neuroscience + modern financial engineering. That said, I don’t want to suggest a layperson is likely to have engaged with any of it, so I understand why this will be the first time a lot of people will have ever considered some of these questions. I imagine what I’m feeling is fairly common to anyone who’s got a very niche interest that blows up and becomes the topic of interest for the entire world. I think there’s probably some very interesting, as-yet undocumented phenomena occurring that’s been the product of the unbelievably vast amount of resources sunk into what’s otherwise a fairly niche kind of utility (in LLMs specifically, and machine learning more broadly). I’m optimistic that there will be some very transformational technologies to come from it, although whether it will produce anything like “AGI”, or ever justify these levels of investment? Both seem rather unlikely.

MattRix

3 months ago

Isn’t that the point of trying to define it in a more rigorous way, like this paper is doing?

bigyabai

3 months ago

The authors acknowledge that this is entirely possible. Their work is just grounded in theory, after all:

> we ground our methodology in Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory, the most empirically validated model of human cognition.

righthand

3 months ago

I agree if our comprehension of intelligence and “life” is incomplete, so is our model for artificial intelligence.

rafram

3 months ago

Are you claiming that LLMs have achieved AGI?

moffkalast

3 months ago

Compared to everything that came before they are fairly general alright.

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

empath75

3 months ago

This is a serious paper by serious people and it is worth reading, but any definition of intelligence that depends on human beings as reference will never be a good basis for evaluating non human intelligence.

You could easily write the reverse of this paper that questions whether human beings have general intelligence by listing all the things that LLMs can do, which human beings can't -- for example producing a reasonably accurate summary of a paper in a few seconds or speaking hundreds of different languages with reasonable fluency.

You can always cherry pick stuff that humans are capable that LLMs are not capable of and vice versa, and and I don't think there is any reason to privilege certain capabilities over others.

I personally do not believe that "General Intelligence" exists as a quantifiable feature of reality, whether in humans or machines. It's phlogiston, it's the luminiferous ether. It's a dead metaphor.

I think what is more interesting is focusing on _specific capabilities_ that are lacking and how to solve each of them. I don't think it's at all _cheating_ to supplement LLM's with tool use, RAG, the ability to run python code. If intelligence can be said to exist at all, it is as part of a system, and even human intelligence is not entirely located in the brain, but is distributed throughout the body. Even a lot of what people generally think of as intelligence -- the ability to reason and solve logic and math problems typically requires people to _write stuff down_ -- ie, use external tools and work through a process mechanically.

mitthrowaway2

3 months ago

Quite the list of authors. If they all personally approved the text, it's an achievement in itself just to get all of them to agree on a definition.

Der_Einzige

3 months ago

Most people who say "AGI" really mean either "ASI" or "Recursive Self Improvement".

AGI was already here the day ChatGPT released: That's Peter Norvig's take too: https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-...

mitthrowaway2

3 months ago

The reason some people treat these as equivalent is that AI algorithm research is one of the things a well-educated adult human can do, so an AGI who commits to that task should be able to improve itself, and if it makes a substantial improvement, then it would become or be replaced by an ASI.

To some people this is self-evident so the terms are equivalent, but it does require some extra assumptions: that the AI would spend time developing AI, that human intelligence isn't already the maximum reachable limit, and that the AGI really is an AGI capable of novel research beyond parroting from its training set.

I think those assumptions are pretty easy to grant, but to some people they're obviously true and to others they're obviously false. So depending on your views on those, AGI and ASI will or will not mean the same thing.

photonthug

3 months ago

Funny but the eyebrow-raising phrase 'recursive self-improvement' is mentioned in TFA in an example about "style adherence" that's completely unrelated to the concept. Pretty clearly a scam where authors are trying to hack searches.

Prerequisite for recursive self-improvement and far short of ASI, any conception of AGI really really needs to be expanded to include some kind of self-model. This is conspicuously missing from TFA. Related basic questions are: What's in the training set? What's the confidence on any given answer? How much of the network is actually required for answering any given question?

Partly this stuff is just hard and mechanistic interpretability as a field is still trying to get traction in many ways, but also, the whole thing is kind of fundamentally not aligned with corporate / commercial interests. Still, anything that you might want to call intelligent has a working self-model with some access to information about internal status. Things that are mentioned in TFA (like working memory) might be involved and necessary, but don't really seem sufficient

tsoukase

3 months ago

My takes as a neuroscientist:

1) defining intelligence is very difficult, almost impossible. Much more the artificial one

2) there are many types of human intelligence. Verbal is one of them and the closest to comparing with LLMs

3) machines (not only LLMs but all, like robots) excel where humans are bad and vice versa due to their different background, without exception. Comparing the two is totally meaningless and unfair for both. Let's have both complement the other.

4) AGI remains a valid target but we are still very far from it, like in other ones, as control the DNA and treat arbitrary genetic diseases, solve the earth resource problem and harness other planets, create a near perfect sociopolitical system with no inequality. Another Singularity is added in the list

5) I am impressed by how far a PC cluster has come up through "shuffling tokens" but on the other side I am pessimistic of how further it can reach having finate input/training data.

throwanem

3 months ago

How, summing (not averaging) to 58 of 1000 possible points (0-100 in each of ten domains), are we calling this score 58% rather than 5.8%?

NitpickLawyer

3 months ago

It's confusing. The 10 tracks each get 10%. So they add up all the percentages from every track. When you see the first table, 10% on math means "perfect" math basically. Not 10% of math track.

alexwebb2

3 months ago

0-10 in each domain. It’s a weird table.

jagrsw

3 months ago

The simple additive scoring here is sus here. It means a model that's perfect on 9/10 axes but scores 0% on Speed (i.e., takes effectively infinite time to produce a result) would be considered "90% AGI".

By this logic, a vast parallel search running on Commodore 64s that produces an answer after BeaverNumber(100) years would be almost AGI, which doesn't pass the sniff test.

A more meaningful metric would be more multiplicative in nature.

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

AlgernonDmello

3 months ago

Opinions without 'pi' are just onions! Its not wrong to have an opinion, but they should be based off some grounded fact/truth.

Before defining AGI, I guess we need to define Intelligence and align on whose definition of intelligence can be considered the grounded truth. The theory of multiple intelligences (Howard Gardner) seems the most accepted today. Is there anything better?

Going with the assumption that there is no other, this definition of AGI only considers the following intelligences. - Verbal-Linguistic - Logical-Mathematical - Visual-Spatial - Musical - Naturalist

It doesnt/barely mentions - Bodily-Kinesthetic - Interpersonal - Intrapersonal - Existential So this definition fees incomplete

ants_everywhere

3 months ago

> To operationalize this, we ground our methodology in Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory, the most empirically validated model of human cognition

Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory, like a lot of psychometric research, is based on collecting a lot of data and running factor analysis (or similar) to look for axes that seem orthogonal.

It's not clear that the axes are necessary or sufficient to define intelligence, especially if the goal is to define intelligence that applies to non-humans.

For example reading and writing ability and visual processing imply the organism has light sensors, which it may not. Do all intelligent beings have vision? I don't see an obvious reason why they would.

Whatever definition you use for AGI probably shouldn't depend heavily on having analyzed human-specific data for the same reason that your definition of what counts as music shouldn't depend entirely on inferences from a single genre.

SirMaster

3 months ago

I don't think it's really AGI until you can simply task it with creating a new better version of itself and it can succeed in doing that all on its own.

A team of humans can and will make a GPT-6. Can a team of GPT-5 agents make GPT-6 all on its own if you give it the resources necessary to do so?

vages

3 months ago

This is called Recursive AI, and is briefly mentioned in the paper.

Animats

3 months ago

Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.18212

That 10-axis radial graph is very interesting. Do others besides this author agree with that representation?

The weak points are speed and long-term memory. Those are usually fixable in computing system. Weak long-term memory indicates that, somehow, a database needs to be bolted on. I've seen at least one system, for driving NPCs, where, after something interesting has happened, the system is asked to summarize what it learned from that session. That's stored somewhere outside the LLM and fed back in as a prompt when needed.

None of this addresses unstructured physical manipulation, which is still a huge hangup for robotics.

flimflamm

3 months ago

I would focus on lowest of the axis. It does not help if some of the axis are at 100% if one of the axis is lacking.

Animats

3 months ago

My point is that the axes chosen are important, and if this is a good rating system, we ought to see those radial charts for the different models and systems available.

SirMaster

3 months ago

Isn't part of the cognitive versatility of a human how fast and well they can learn a new subject without having to ingest so much training content on it?

Like in order for an LLM to come close to a human proficiency on a topic, the LLM seems to have to ingest a LOT more content than a human.

UltraSane

3 months ago

I would define AGI as any artificial system that could learn any skill a human can by using the same inputs.

Geee

3 months ago

How about AFI - artificial fast idiot. Dumber than a baby, but faster than an adult. Or AHI - artificial human imitator.

This is bad definition, because human baby is already AGI when it's born and it's brain is empty. AGI is the blank slate and ability to learn anything.

jagrsw

3 months ago

That "blank slate" idea doesn't really apply to humans, either.

We are born with inherited "data" - innate behaviors, basic pattern recognition, etc. Some even claim that we're born with basic physics toolkit (things are generally solid, they move). We then build on that by being imitators, amassing new skills and methods simply by observation and performing search.

Geee

3 months ago

Sure, there's lots of inbuilt stuff like basic needs and emotions. But still, baby doesn't know anything about the world. It's the ability to collect data and train on it that makes it AGI.

jagrsw

3 months ago

> baby doesn't know anything about the world

That's wrong. It knows how to process and signal low carbohydrate levels in the blood, and it knows how to react to a perceived threat (the Moro reflex).

It knows how to follow solid objects with its eyes (when its visual system adapts) - it knows that certain visual stimuli correspond to physical systems.

Could it be that your concept of "know" is defined as common sense "produces output in English/German/etc"?

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2

3 months ago

I was going to make a mildly snide remark about how once it can consistently make better decision than average person, it is automatically qualifies, but the paper itself is surprisingly thoughtful in describing both: where we are and where it would need to be.

daxfohl

3 months ago

It's easy: we have reached AGI when there are zero jobs left. Or at least non manual labor jobs. If there is a single non-physical job left, then that means that person must be doing something that AI can't, so by definition, it's not AGI.

I think it'll be a steep sigmoid function. For a long time it'll be a productivity booster, but not enough "common sense" to replace people. We'll all laugh about how silly it was to worry about AI taking our jobs. Then some AI model will finally get over that last hump, maybe 10 or 20 years from now (or 1000, or 2}, and it will be only a couple months before everything collapses.

__MatrixMan__

3 months ago

I dislike your definition. There are many problems besides economic ones. If you defined "general" to mean "things the economy cares about", then what do you call the sorts of intelligences that are capable of things that the economically relevant ones are not?

A specific key opens a subset of locks, a general key would open all locks. General intelligence, then, can solve all solvable problems. It's rather arrogant to suppose that humans have it ourselves or that we can create something that does.

daxfohl

3 months ago

It also partitions jobs into physical and intellectual aspects alone. Lots of jobs have a huge emotional/relational/empathetic components too. A teacher could get by being purely intellectual, but the really great ones have motivational/inspirational/caring aspects that an AI never could. Even if an AI says the exact same things, it doesn't have the same effect because everyone knows it's just an algorithm.

ZoomZoomZoom

3 months ago

And most people get by on those jobs by faking the emotional component, at least some of the time. AGI presumably can fake perfectly and never burn out.

_heimdall

3 months ago

I'm also frustrated by the lack of clear definitions related to AI.

Do you know what's more frustrating, though? Focusing so heavily on definitions that we miss the practicality of it (and I'm guilt of this at times too).

We can debate definitions of AGI, but given that we don't know what a new model or system is capable of until its built and tested in the real world we have more serious questions in my opinion.

Debates over AI risk, safety, and alignment are still pretty uncommon and it seems most are happy enough to accept Jevons Paradox. Are we really going to unleash whatever we do build just to find out after the fact whether or not its AGI?

keepamovin

3 months ago

I think if you can put an AI in a humanoid robot (control for appearance), and it can convince me that it's a human after interacting it for a couple of months (control for edgecases), I'd consider it AGI. Surely it might be "smarter than" a human, but for the purpose of my assessing whether it's AGI, interacting with something "way smarter" would be distracting and hamper the assessment, so it has to be "play human" for the purpose of the task. If it can do that, AGI, I'd say. That would be pretty cool. Surely, this is coming, soon.

incomingpain

3 months ago

A "general intelligence" is equivalent to a golden retriever or dolphin. A human general intelligence is a $3/hr minimum wage worker from some undeveloped country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cattell%E2%80%93Horn%E2%80%93C...

If a person has all those criteria, they are superintelligent. They are beyond genius.

The AGI definition problem is that everyone keeps conflating AGI with ASI, Artificial Super Intelligence.

jedberg

3 months ago

To define AGI, we'd first have to define GI. Humans are very different. As park rangers like to say, there is an overlap between the smartest bears and the dumbest humans, which is why sometimes people can't open bear-proof trash cans.

It's a similar debate with self driving cars. They already drive better than most people in most situations (some humans crash and can't drive in the snow either for example).

Ultimately, defining AGI seems like a fools errand. At some point the AI will be good enough to do the tasks that some humans do (it already is!). That's all that really matters here.

lukan

3 months ago

" At some point the AI will be good enough to do the tasks that some humans do (it already is!). That's all that really matters here."

What matters to me is, if the "AGI" can reliably solve the tasks that I give to it and that requires also reliable learning.

LLM's are far from that. It takes special human AGI to train them to make progress.

jedberg

3 months ago

> What matters to me is, if the "AGI" can reliably solve the tasks that I give to it and that requires also reliable learning.

How many humans do you know that can do that?

Jensson

3 months ago

Most humans can reliably do the job they are hired to do.

CaptainOfCoit

3 months ago

> defining AGI as matching the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult

Seems most of the people one would encounter out in the world might not posses AGI, how are we supposed to be able to train our electrified rocks to have AGI if this is the case?

If no one has created a online quiz called "Are you smarter than AGI?" yet based on the proposed "ten core cognitive domains", I'd be disappointed.

oidar

3 months ago

This is fine for a definition of AGI, but it's incomplete. It misses so many parts of the cognition that make humans flexible and successful. For example, emotions, feelings, varied pattern recognition, propreception, embodied awareness, social skills, and navigating ambiguous situation w/o algorithms. If the described 10 spectrums of intelligence were maxed by an LLM, it would still fall short.

pixl97

3 months ago

Eh, I don't like the idea of 'intelligence' of any type using humans as the base line. It blinds it to our own limitations and things that may not be limits to other types of intelligence. The "AI won't kill us all because it doesn't have emotions" problem is one of these. For example, just because AI doesn't get angry, doesn't mean it can't recognize your anger and manipulate if given such a directive to.

oidar

3 months ago

I agree, my point is that the cognition that creates emotion (and others) is of a different quality than the 10 listed in the paper.

bananaflag

3 months ago

I can define AGI in a line:

an entity which is better than any human at any task.

Fight me!

Balgair

3 months ago

Mine has always been:

I have 2 files. One is a .pdf . The other is a .doc . One file has a list of prices and colors in 2 columns. The other file has a list of colors and media in 2 columns. There are incomplete lists here and many to one matching.

To me, if I can verbally tell the AI to give me a list of prices and media from those two files, in a .csv file, and it'll ask back some simple questions and issues that it needs cleaned up to accomplish this, then that is AGI to me.

It is an incredibly simple thing for just about any middle school graduate.

And yet! I have worked with PhDs that cannot do this. No joke!

Something this simple, just dead running numbers, dumb accounting, is mostly beyond us.

bedane

3 months ago

a significant % of what I do day-to-day is dedicated to the task of finding sexual partners. how does this translate?

if it doesn't, how do you define "any task"?

bananaflag

3 months ago

I imagine an AGI (properly disguised as a humanoid) would be a drop-in replacement able to seduce humans.

Same for any task you imagine.

aprilfoo

3 months ago

Filling forms is a terribly artificial activity in essence. They are also very culturally biased, but that fits well with the material the NNs have been trained with.

So, surely those IQ-related tests might be acceptable rating tools for machines and they might get higher scores than anyone at some point.

Anyway, is the objective of this kind of research to actually measure the progress of buzzwords, or amplify them?

almosthere

3 months ago

This is kind of annoying.

The "computer" on star trek TNG was basically agentic LLMs (it knows what you mean when you ask it things, and it could solve things and modify programs by telling it what changes to make)

Data on ST:TNG was more like AGI. It had dreams, argued for itself as a sentient being, created art, controlled its own destiny through decision making.

Rover222

3 months ago

I always find it interesting how the majority of comments on threads like this on HN are dismissive of current AI systems as "gimmicks", yet some of the most successful people on the planet think it's worth plowing a trillion dollars into them.

I don't know who's right, but the dichotomy is interesting.

TehCorwiz

3 months ago

Success is just a measure of how much you can separate other people from their money. It’s possible to be successful and produce nothing of value.

Rover222

3 months ago

You don't suppose it is at times also a measure of knowing how to skate where the puck is heading?

user

3 months ago

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jimbohn

3 months ago

I think "our" mistake is that we wanted to make a modern human first, while being unable to make an animal or even a caveman, and we lost something in the leap-frog. But we effectively have a database of knowledge that has become interactive thanks to reinforcement learning, which is really useful!

tim333

3 months ago

Maybe we need a new term. I mean AGI just means artificial general intelligence as opposed to specialised AI like chess computers and never came with a particular level it had to be. Most people think of it as human level intelligence so perhaps we should call it that?

joomla199

3 months ago

All models are wrong, but some are useful. However when it comes to cognition and intelligence we seem to be in the “wrong and useless” era or maybe even “wrong and harmful” (history seems to suggest this as a necessary milestone…anyone remember “humorism”?)

l5870uoo9y

3 months ago

Long-term memory storage capacity[1] scores 0 for both GPT-4 and GPT-5. Are there any workable ideas or concepts for solving this?

[1]: The capability to continually learn new information (associative, meaningful, and verbatim). (from the publication)

jncfhnb

3 months ago

Completely wrong direction. AGI will not emerge from getting smarter. It will emerge from being a stateful system in a real environment.

You need context from internal system state that isn’t faked with a giant context window.

stephc_int13

3 months ago

You need some expertise in a field to see past the amazing imitation capabilities of LLMs and get a realistic idea of how mediocre they are. The more you work with it the less you trust it. This is not _it_.

adamzwasserman

3 months ago

I wish them luck. Any consensus at all, on any definition at all, would be a boon to mankind. Unfortunately I am certain that all we have to look forward to is endless goal post shifting.

giancarlostoro

3 months ago

Maybe AGI should have levels / phases to achieve towards 100% or a maximum level?

InvisibleUp

3 months ago

Since everyone's spitballing their idea of AGI, my personal take is that AGI should be a fully autonomous system that have a stable self-image of some sort, can act on its own volition, understand the outcome of its actions, learn from cause-and-effect, and can continue doing so indefinitely.

So far, LLMs aren't even remotely close to this, as they only do what they are told to do (directly or otherwise), they can't learn without a costly offline retraining process, they do not care in the slightest what they're tasked with doing or why, and they do not have anything approximating a sense of self beyond what they're told to be.

ryanSrich

3 months ago

Yeah my definition of AGI has always been close to this. The key factors:

- It's autonomous

- It learns (not retraining, but true learning)

- By definition some semblance of consciousness must arise

This is why I think we're very far from anything close to this. Easily multiple decades if not far longer.

dwa3592

3 months ago

Everyone has a definition and so have I. I would call it an AGI when i replace my smartphone and laptop with it. When my screen time is zero? Can AGI replace screens? Go figure.

morgengold

3 months ago

Why do we even want to have human intelligence? It's flawed and limited in so many ways. Most of its magic is there because it cares about its host.

arbirk

3 months ago

What about learning? As humans we continually update our weights from sensing the world. Before the AI can rewrite itself it can't really be AGI imo

nopinsight

3 months ago

Creative problem solving and commonsense physics are missing, among others.

It is a valuable contribution but the CHC theory from psychology that this is based on is itself incomplete.

By commonsense physics, I mean something like simulating interactions of living and non-living entities in 3D over time. Seems more complicated than the examples in the web site and in most tests used in psychometrics.

Creative problem solving with cognitive leaps required for truly novel research & invention could lie outside the rubrics as well. The criteria in CHC are essential but incomplete I believe.

bmacho

3 months ago

And this is it (from the abstract):

  > defining AGI as matching the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult.

skywhopper

3 months ago

GPT-5 is 57%? Hilarious. This is a bad joke.

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

IAmGraydon

3 months ago

The problem is not really defining AGI. It's testing for it in a way that avoids illusory intelligence.

Abecid

3 months ago

Dan is very ambitious great marketer too

NitpickLawyer

3 months ago

Interesting read. I agree completely with their Introduction, that the definition of AGI is constantly shifting, and this leads to endless (and useless) debates.

What I find cool about the paper is that they have gathered folks from lots of places (berkley, stanford, mit, etc). And no big4 labs. That's good imo.

tl;dr; Their definition: "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult."

Cool. It's a definition. I doubt it will be agreed on by everyone, and I can see endless debates about just about every word in that definition. That's not gonna change. At least it's a starting point.

What I find interesting is that they specifically say it's not a benchmark, or a test set. It's a framework where they detail what should be tested, and how (with examples). They do have a "catchy" table with gpt4 vs gpt5, that I bet will be covered by every mainstream/blog/forum/etc out there -> gpt5 is at ~50% AGI. Big title. You won't believe where it was one year ago. Number 7 will shock you. And all that jazz.

Anyway, I don't think people will stop debating about AGI. And I doubt this methodology will be agreed on by everyone. At the end of the day both extremes are more ideological in nature than pragmatic. Both end want/need their view to be correct.

I enjoyed reading it. Don't think it will settle anything. And, as someone posted below, when the first model will hit 100% on their framework, we'll find new frameworks to debate about, just like we did with the turing test :)

empath75

3 months ago

> tl;dr; Their definition: "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult."

Is a 9 year old child generally intelligent? What about a high school drop out? Someone with a 90 IQ? A large percentage of people who ever lived wouldn't qualify as being generally intelligent with that benchmark.

golol

3 months ago

>Paper claims definition of AGI >Look inside >No definition of AGI.

mmmothra

3 months ago

It's giving... SAT scores meets venture capital.

xpuente

3 months ago

Desperate to run without even knowing how to walk.

chrsw

3 months ago

I think a lot of this is all backwards. People think AGI is taking something dumb, like an LLM, and sticking on learning, like a software upgrade.

I think it's the other way around: you build a system that first and foremost _learns_ as part of its fundamental function, _then_ you train it in the domain you want expertise.

You're not going to get expertise in all domains all the time, just like with people. And you're not going to get a perfect slave either, just like with humans. You'll probably get something more like in between a human and machine. If that's what you really want, great.

To put this another way, if you neglect your kids, they're still going to learn things, just probably not things you want them to learn. If you neglect your language model it's just not going to do anything.

user

3 months ago

[deleted]

qnleigh

3 months ago

Ugh just looking at their list, this paper gets a hard no from me. Intelligence isn't mastery of some arbitrary list of mathematical subjects. It's the ability to learn and apply these subjects (or anything else) after minimal exposure to the topic.

For a bar as high as AGI (and not just 'the skills of an educated person,' which is what this paper seems to be describing), we should include abstract mathematical reasoning, and the ability to generate new ideas or even whole subfields to solve open problems.

wseqyrku

3 months ago

> .., Eric Schmidt, ..

Right. That explains it.

sbinnee

3 months ago

Yoshua Bengio too. Does anyone know connections between the two? Is Schmidt supporting researches at Mila?

spot

3 months ago

> Last, we deliberately focus on core cognitive capabilities rather than physical abilities such as motor skills or tactile sensing, as we seek to measure the capabilities of the mind rather than the quality of its actuators or sensors.

seems pretty unfair to exclude motor skills, especially given 1) how central they are to human economic activity, and 2) how moravec's paradox tells us they are the hard part.

mmmothra

3 months ago

it's giving...SAT scores meets venture capital.

oxag3n

3 months ago

Oh yeah, it's lack of a definition that keeps these models from replacing humans. /s

Grimblewald

3 months ago

Exactly! and this circular and generally poor definition is going to put it all into perspective.

user

3 months ago

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