Denmark close to wiping out cancer-causing HPV strains after vaccine roll-out

559 pointsposted 9 hours ago
by slu

184 Comments

pm90

8 hours ago

If you're living in the US: please consider getting the vaccine, ragardless of your age. It was covered by my (rather shitty) health insurance. It consists of just 2 (EDIT: 3 for adults!) doses. It is recommended for both Males and Females.

arjie

5 hours ago

It is actually not straightforward to do. Safeway Pharmacy refused to actually give me the vaccine when I showed up saying I'm not in a group that's eligible. One Medical told me that it would be a $400/shot 3-shot regimen. I'll probably just travel to India some time to visit family and get Cervavac there instead of Gardasil here. It's about $20/shot.

Aurornis

2 hours ago

Depending on the state you’re in, you likely have to get a prescription from a doctor, not a pharmacist, due to the wording of the law.

Simplest route would be to call your primary doctor and ask if they can give it to you at your next annual checkup.

BobAliceInATree

3 hours ago

as far as I can tell, pharmacists cannot give vaccines off-label (this is an issue for the new covid guidelines and some states fell back to an Rx if no longer eligible for the covid booster).

Your PCP may give a vaccine off-label though, which is how I got my Shingrix, though I had to pay out of pocket.

rishikeshs

2 hours ago

What’s the procedure of getting Cervavac in india?

rtaylorgarlock

7 hours ago

And note i believe they just increased the recommended age of administration up to ~40yo? Throat cancer sucks. Get the vax.

sillyfluke

7 hours ago

Why is there an age limit on an all encompassing vax, wasn't the famous posterchild for this disease Michael Douglas?

ZeroGravitas

7 hours ago

This is mostly guesswork but I think you need to get the vaccine before you catch it and lots of people have it as they get older.

If you have a limited supply the greater bang per buck would be to start with the young people who almost certainly haven't caught it yet and then work your way up.

OneDeuxTriSeiGo

4 hours ago

It's less that and more "we just haven't tested it in older populations yet".

Sure you are more likely to have it the older you are but even then you are unlikely to have all the strains. The vaccine covers like 9 or 10 different strains so it can protect you from the other strains even if you already have one of them.

It's generally only when you get into the 60s and up that the justification for not recommending the vaccine changes. Once you get into those later years the immune response changes a bit and you get new concerns.

An example being herpes zoster (chickenpox) where after a certain age you are recommended to get the shingles vaccine instead of the chickenpox vaccine since the way the disease presents and how the body reacts to it changes with age (technically shingles can happen at any age but generally herpes zoster presents as shingles instead of chickenpox the older you get).

JumpCrisscross

7 hours ago

> Why is there an age limit on an all encompassing vax

Vaccines are subject to stringent safety standards since they’re administered to healthy people. The age limit may suggest that at the time of the recommendation, in the relevant jurisdiction, the manufacturer had not studied its safety and efficacy in >40 year olds.

(I also don’t think it’s an age limit as much as the upper end of a recommendation.)

loeg

5 hours ago

E.g., the Shingles vaccine simply hasn't been tested in <50 populations. But if you're under 50 and you've had the chicken pox, you should ask your PCP to prescribe the shingles vaccine off-label and go get it, because shingles sucks and the vaccine definitely works.

LorenPechtel

6 hours ago

It's an age limit to the approval caused by a lack of studies. To study it in over 45s you need suitable over 45s--but there aren't a lot of over 45s with risk but not prior exposure.

BjoernKW

3 hours ago

The rationale is that most sexually active people have already been infected with HPV anyway, so the largest benefit of administering the vaccine is at a young age.

JohnTHaller

7 hours ago

It's likely that they haven't tested it as thoroughly in older folks and that most older folks have already been exposed to HPV.

codr7

5 hours ago

Already exposed without having any issues from it.

tehjoker

4 hours ago

That last part doesn't matter. You can develop cancer later.

Fomite

7 hours ago

To be blunt: Cost-effectiveness.

vharuck

6 hours ago

In the US, recommendations come from the United States Preventive Services Task Force. They explicitly do not consider cost in their decisions. They look at harm vs benefit, usually with a focus on mortality reduction. Most insurance companies will base their coverage on the USPSTF.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/hpv/hcp/recommendations.htm...

Fomite

24 minutes ago

Decisions as to whether or not to pursue regulatory approval for, example, expanded coverage of the HPV vaccine to men, or older age groups, is very commonly informed by cost-benefit calculations. I've worked on those projects, seen presentations by my colleagues, etc. There was a good two years of my life where this was what I worked on (mostly strain replacement post-vaccination).

It's a level of evidence that's generated (usually) prior to ACIP, and it is presented to them, while there is not necessarily a bright line threshold.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7652907/

fsckboy

3 hours ago

if you suspect that the cdc has been captured by big pharma, "and we don't care about cost of these recommended drugs" should pretty much seal the deal for you :)

epistasis

3 hours ago

Oh wow how the conspiracy theories change.

There used to be fears of "death panels" controlling access to medical care when Clinton tried to propose universal health care.

The CDC and FDA are about safety, not cost management. And they get significant complaints about how much they regulate pharma and are impediments to pharma for that!

Now the conspiracy theorists of the other side seem to be having their day in the public mind.

Fomite

21 minutes ago

This isn't a conspiracy theory - I worked on projects around that during graduate school, and talked to my colleagues who worked on them. Cost-effectiveness thresholds are a consideration that goes into how widely a vaccine will be rolled out, etc.

That was, for example, why boys were originally not part of the recommendation for the HPV vaccine. It would double to cost, while doing very little to prevent cervical cancer via indirect protection. Once the evidence accumulated that it was associated with other cancers, that stopped being true.

Similar logic applied to older women and men.

fsckboy

2 hours ago

clear financial incentives are never conspiracy theories: always follow the money.

thinking that they are conspiracy theories? that's a conspiracy theorist.

colingauvin

3 hours ago

A lot of replies that are mostly true, or somewhat true, or simply missing the real reasons.

There are two factors here:

1) Vaccine-derived immunity is a function of the individual's immune response, which in general, weakens significantly with age. It is not unrealistic for a vaccine to simply fail to elicit any response in someone old enough.

2) It is very, very difficult to recruit folks without HPV that are over 40 for a clinical trial. Most people of that age, who were never immunized, most likely have had it. This significantly convolutes the signal.

3) This is all especially confounded once something becomes "standard of care". Every year there are fewer and fewer people age 40+ with HPV.

For these reasons, the vaccine is currently officially ??? in people over 40. Most doctors will prescribe it anyways if you ask. It may or may not infer immunity. It almost certainly will not harm you.

phkahler

3 hours ago

Conspiracy theory: they want old people to die.

comrade1234

8 hours ago

Any way to test for previous exposure? I'd be pretty surprised if I didn't already have antibodies. I suppose it doesn't matter though.

toomuchtodo

7 hours ago

HPV tests are of low value (as an adult, if ever sexually active, you likely have it but can do nothing about it); a new biomarker test that can detect the cancers is being developed [1]. Ongoing cancer surveillance is all you can do once exposed without having been vaccinated (and if cancer occurs, immunotherapy).

As pm90 wrote, I strongly recommend getting vaccinated [2] unless a doctor tells you otherwise, even if you already have HPV or have had previous potential exposure.

[1] Circulating tumor human papillomavirus DNA whole genome sequencing enables human papillomavirus-associated oropharynx cancer early detection - https://academic.oup.com/jnci/advance-article-abstract/doi/1... | https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djaf249

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HPV_vaccine

(had three doses in my 30s via Planned Parenthood)

myself248

3 hours ago

> previous potential exposure.

Isn't that basically everyone who's had sex with someone who had sex before the vaccine was common? I was denied when I asked my last doctor, on that logic. I'll ask my current doctor.

Insanity

7 hours ago

Doctor recommended it to me when I was almost 30. So yeah, I'd say still go for it.

tonfa

7 hours ago

Note that the modern vaccine covers 9 different strains.

dashundchen

22 minutes ago

Right. And a few years ago my doctor's office had orders for both the the quadvalent vaccine and the nonavalent vaccine in the system and almost ordered only the quad for me.

Definitely ensure you're requesting the 9 strain version.

Obscurity4340

7 hours ago

Not sure but theres zero downside to getting it

toast0

5 hours ago

Information from the CDC [1], indicates Adverse Reactions are similar to administration of a placebo, which is not zero. Any vaccine administration has potential for negative adverse reactions, it's reasonable not to get a vaccine if you judge the upside is not worth the downside, even if the downside is small.

The CDC says:

> Like all medical interventions, vaccines can have some side effects.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/hpv/hcp/recommendations.htm...

freedomben

an hour ago

If it's similar to placebo, doesn't that imply that it's pretty much non-existent?

toast0

36 minutes ago

No, the CDC says (at my previous link):

> A temperature of 100°F during the 15 days after vaccination was reported in 10% to 13% of HPV vaccine recipients. A similar proportion of placebo recipients reported an elevated temperature.

If you take some research subjects, do nothing to them, and then ask how they did 15 days after, I would be surprised if 10-13% reported a 100F fever during that time. But, that's a reasonable result from a saline or hpv injection.

LorenPechtel

6 hours ago

It's not approved for those over 45. (AFIAK, simply because so few people in that age group would have risk without having had prior exposure. Basically only those who had divorced or lost their long time partner.)

peterlk

4 hours ago

This is not true any more. The vaccine has been shown to lower cancer risk for those who already carry the virus, so it is recommended even for people who are HPV positive

p1necone

6 hours ago

That feels like a wild assumption to me - we really think people 45+ aren't having casual sex? less casual sex maybe, but I would imagine still a decent amount, statistically.

finghin

5 hours ago

If you’re having casual sex at 45+ you probably already carry HPV.

phkahler

3 hours ago

There are over 30 strains of HPV with just 2 causing the majority of cancers. So sure, most people may have had some strain of it, but that's not really relevant unless immunity is broad across strains.

pcthrowaway

3 hours ago

Sure, but you probably don't already have all the strains which can cause cancer.

p1necone

4 hours ago

Yeah that makes much more sense as an explanation than OP.

tehjoker

4 hours ago

Maybe, but all 9 cancer causing strains covered by the vaccine? HPV also clears on its own usually after some time afaik.

loeg

5 hours ago

It's not "recommended" but your PCP can prescribe it off-label if you ask -- just ask.

al_borland

5 hours ago

I met with a new PCP a few weeks ago and it was recommended to me (at age 43). I got the first shot with the 2nd and 3rd scheduled for the coming months.

pimlottc

5 hours ago

The issue is getting it covered by insurance. Otherwise it can cost over $1,000 for the full course of shots.

loeg

4 hours ago

You can get costs down somewhat (half that) even uninsured with GoodRx.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

I'm sorry, but you sound like the people who try to get me take ivermectine for Covid. "just get it off label" or "tell the doctor you just got back from pauea new guinea and saw worms in your stool."

I know you are very well intentioned, but American's actually have very good doctors.

loeg

4 hours ago

This is very different from recommending horse dewormer; if you can't tell the difference, I'm sorry.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

When I'm in my doctor's office, and the doctor is saying "don't do that" it is quite hard to tell the difference.

loeg

2 hours ago

Did you actually ask your doctor and receive that guidance, or is this purely a hypothetical?

pyuser583

an hour ago

Multiple times. I’ve specifically asked about this vaccine again and again.

I’ve had a few GPs in the past 20 years. They’re consistent.

I admit it’s weird. And ideologically I feel like a bit of a laggard.

But I’ve had both the conversation with my doctor, and the conversation with online “smart people who know better than my doctor” many times.

loeg

32 minutes ago

Ok, great. I'm just asking people to have that conversation.

Spooky23

3 hours ago

It more like “I’d rather not have a current or future partner go through a painful LEEP procedure or cervical cancer because I exposed her to HPV”

iamtheworstdev

4 hours ago

> American's actually have very good doctors

Doctors aren't setting the rules on who gets what vaccine and when. RFK Jr is. Health insurance companies are.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

RFK Jr wasn't doing anything worth talking about during the multiple times in the past 15 years my doctors have told me it wasn't recommended.

Please do not turn mainstream medical advice into a fringe position.

strictnein

4 hours ago

It's a standard vaccine for preteen/teen boys now too. If your doctor has been telling you not to get it for the past 15 years, they've been doing you a disservice.

pyuser583

an hour ago

I haven’t been a preteen boy for the past 15 years.

rcruzeiro

3 hours ago

I got 3 doses of gardasil at 37 in Norway. I do not want to expose women to a potentially deadly virus (plus I’d also like to avoid having penile cancer and mouth/throat cancer myself). If your doctor is seriously advising you against taking the vaccine, you should consult another doctor for a second opinion.

rogerrogerr

7 hours ago

If you’re not sexually active, is it still worth doing?

JumpCrisscross

7 hours ago

Yes.

“The route of HPV transmission is primarily through skin-to-skin or skin-to-mucosa contact. Sexual transmission is the most documented, but there have been studies suggesting non-sexual courses.

The horizontal transfer of HPV includes fomites, fingers, and mouth, skin contact (other than sexual). Self-inoculation is described in studies as a potential HPV transmission route, as it was certified in female virgins, and in children with genital warts (low-risk HPV) without a personal history of sexual abuse. Vertical transmission from mother to child is another HPV transfer course” [1].

[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7579832/

toasterlovin

6 hours ago

Right, but do the vaccines help against the strains of HPV that are transmitted via non-sexual contact? The vaccine being 9-valent implies (to me, a layman) that strains need to be targeted fairly specifically in order for vaccination to be effective.

bluGill

an hour ago

Unclear. There are reports that warts (a form of hpv - but not one the vacine is directly for) are also reduced - but I'm not aware of formal studies

Modified3019

6 hours ago

Yes. While direct genital contact is the highest probability way to spread it, any skin-skin, skin-mucosa, skin-object-skin contact can potentially spread it. Consider how much you trust others to wash their hands after using the restroom. Low probability, but possible.

You’ve got a low probability of getting polio, but there’s no reason not to be vaccinated if you can.

Even if you already have a strain, there are multiple types. In fact, people who got a vaccine early on, should consider an updated shot for more complete protection.

pitpatagain

7 hours ago

The protection from the vaccines lasts (probably) a lifetime, and HPV is quite widespread because it is: very easily communicable, and infections linger for potentially long periods of time without any obvious symptoms

Something like 80% of people are sexually active at all will be infected with HPV at some point. You may not have been sexually active, but your future partners may have been. I personally have a friend who went through stage 4 cancer contracted from her (now ex) husband.

So, of course not literally everyone needs to take it, assess your own risks, but it's quite an easy, highly effective vaccine: don't overthink it.

toomuchtodo

7 hours ago

Life is long and unpredictable, while the cost is very low.

Fomite

7 hours ago

If you ever intend to be, yes.

hedora

7 hours ago

Yes.

CGMthrowaway

7 hours ago

Why?

vhcr

7 hours ago

Rape, you might become sexually active in the future, and although sexual transmission is the most common way, there are some other ways to get infected.

airstrike

4 hours ago

Probably in reverse order

yladiz

7 hours ago

Unless you're never sexually active (meaning, you eventually do have sex), it's worthwhile getting since there is a risk to yourself if you get infected.

yieldcrv

2 hours ago

I'm male and read about this exposure vector back in 2012 when it was only rolled out to 12 year old girls, with a further guideline that nobody over 26 should take it.

this was pre- antivaxxer anxiety, and just run of the mill 'is the government condoning sex' anxiety, and it was controversial for that reason alone

the issue was that if you've been exposed already then the vaccine doesn't work. they had a test for women that can prove they've been exposed or not, and most adults have. they don't have a test for men that can prove they've been exposed or not, and most adults have. At the time, they had also only considered males to be carriers, with no cancers themselves.

so for the US government to recommend a limited stock and get insurers on board, it was all based on probabilities of exposure and utility.

I was younger at the time, naturally, I paid $600 out of pocket to get it across 3 doses because I figured it was worse than that, or I could get some 'male ally' brownie points from women. I wasn't wealthy then but figured this experience couldn't be taken from me even if I went bankrupt.

Since then, they've further linked it to throat cancers in males, because of our mouth's contact with genitals, and insurers are told to cover it across all genders and up to mid 40s. that's not really much of a difference now though, since the checkpoint is basically the same group of people, 13 years later.

They're still assuming older people are not worth bothering with, due to likely exposure.

There is an amusing side of this if you are male and not vaccinated yet, since nobody can tell if you've been exposed still: keep your sexual relationships with younger women. lol. in case you needed an excuse - higher probability they're vaccinated.

Fomite

6 minutes ago

"this was pre- antivaxxer anxiety" - It was really, really not.

Another thing to keep in mind was that the initial trials were only using cervical cancer endpoints - the association between HOV infection and cervical cancer is really strong. At that time, vaccinating boys provided only indirect protection (you couldn't infect a female partner), rather than direct protection (you won't be infected) in the context of cervical cancer.

Women prior to sexual debut were the biggest "bang for the buck" and the obvious first recommendation target.

Researchers both at universities and in private industry then started working on other populations based on alternative endpoints.

mgiampapa

an hour ago

The current recommended cutoff is 45 (well, pre the current US administration). So I think it was a question of we tested this at the time in these high risk age groups and we were still waiting on the results for other cohorts that were less important.

justin66

8 hours ago

> It consists of just 2 doses.

Wasn't it 3 doses before?

pm90

8 hours ago

you're right its 3, updated message

hedora

7 hours ago

I went to my local megacorp pharmacy out here in California, and asked about the COVID vaccine that’s no longer recommended by our anti-vaxxer overlords.

Apparently, it’s about as easy to get as an old-school medical marijuana card.

Results vary by state though. No need to travel to Canada or Mexico (yet).

arcticbull

7 hours ago

Kaiser is continuing to cover it for everyone.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

I've been through this with medical providers, and they say it's not recommended for me.

I don't take medical advice from internet strangers, especially when it contradicts my doctors'.

I'm not particularly interested in discussing the how's and why's. My doctor said he doesn't recommend I get it, so I don't.

SchemaLoad

4 hours ago

In most countries it's recommended for everyone. It just isn't in the US because they don't want to pay for it.

pyuser583

4 hours ago

From what I have heard, that is true for many, many vaccines.

I think it's weird and creepy people are selectively opting into vaccines that are not recommended for them.

It feels a bit like those ads that say "bring up Expedia with your doctor!"

This isn't a good PSA.

Should I be vaccinated against smallpox too? How about anthrax?

OkayPhysicist

3 hours ago

If we had as trivial of vaccinations for smallpox, anthrax, and rabies as we have for HPV, I'd collect them all. One fewer risk in my life, and a finite reduction in the risk of everyone around me's life, with no downside at all.

1 pin prick * 340,000,000 people > 340,000,000 people * 6.1 cases of cervical cancer * 0.9 efficacy / 100,000 people

Your world view assigns equally negative utility to at most 18,214 shots as 1 case of cervical cancer.

Put another way: If you were told you had to either take a shot every day, or you are guaranteed to get cancer, would you really choose the cancer?

pyuser583

an hour ago

If I was told by my doctor I shouldn’t get the vaccine I wouldn’t get it.

Animats

5 hours ago

Good to hear what's happening in the more advanced countries.

dmix

4 hours ago

RFK Jr may be a bit biased, his opposition has been profitable

> Kennedy for years has earned referral fees from Wisner Baum, a Los Angeles personal injury law firm that is currently suing Merck, alleging the pharmaceutical giant failed to properly warn the public about risks from its vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV), Gardasil, according to financial disclosure documents filed by Kennedy with the Office of Government Ethics.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-confirmation-robert-f-ke...

shirro

an hour ago

Good stuff. Australia has a target for eliminating cervical cancer by 2035 and ofcourse HPV is responsible for a large proportion of penile, mouth, throat and anal cancers as well. All my kids got free vaccinations at school.

It is shocking that there are still places in the world where this is controversial. You can tell a lot about the qualities of a society by the way they care for their own.

blindriver

8 hours ago

The goal wasn't to eliminate the HPV strains, it was to decrease cervical cancer. Has Denmark encountered a drop in cervical cancer? If so, that's a great outcome!

LorenPechtel

6 hours ago

The lead time from infection to cancer is very long, we would not expect to see too much of a drop *yet*. But testing for those strains seems to be as useful for screening as a pap smear.

Kalanos

an hour ago

In the US, there is no male test for HPV

everdrive

8 hours ago

Does the vaccine benefit you if you've already been infected?

abirch

8 hours ago

There are multiple strains of HPV and most people haven't been infected with all of the strains.

from https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/by_th...

mrheosuper

an hour ago

Does the vaccine work against all strains ?

epistasis

6 minutes ago

It has only been targeted against the strains known to cause cancer. I haven't looked but I would guess getting all strains would have been a greater challenge, and would not have greatly increased uptake of the vaccine. The false perception that it's a vaccine that will encourages unprotected sex has already greatly hindered adoption in the US.

Fomite

3 minutes ago

No, it's targeted against those most associated with cancer.

Fomite

8 hours ago

Potentially, yes. HPV infections are cleared over time, and there are many strains of HPV.

everdrive

7 hours ago

That's really interesting, and from that I would assume that the risk of cervical (or other cancers) from HPV is associated with how often someone is reinfected? ie, someone who got HPV once in college doesn't have HPV their whole life? And potentially has a lower cancer risk than someone who is repeatedly re-infected?

Am I understanding that correctly?

Fomite

7 hours ago

> someone who got HPV once in college doesn't have HPV their whole life?

Doesn't necessarily have HPV their whole life - time-to-clearance is somewhat variable.

And yes, both slower clearance and just more infections are both associated with increased risk.

tialaramex

8 hours ago

In a sense no, hence the choice to vaccinate younger children who will mostly not be sexually active yet.

But because the modern versions of these vaccines cover many strains (initial vaccines were two, Denmark chose a 4 way vaccine, now a nine way) it's very possible that you get a meaningful benefit by being protected from say six strains your body has never seen, even though the three it has already seen wouldn't be prevented.

Fomite

8 hours ago

It should be noted that the decision to vaccinate younger children is a combination of disease prevention and cost, not just vaccine effectiveness.

Scoundreller

20 minutes ago

And access! If you vaccinate in earlier grades of school, the kids haven’t had a chance to drop out yet.

giantg2

8 hours ago

I've heard of it being administered post exposure as a way to help the body fight the existing infection. Seemed a little odd when I first heard it as HPV should clear on it's own.

Fomite

8 hours ago

The key is you want it to clear as quickly as possible.

syntaxing

5 hours ago

Wasn’t this also the same conclusion for Australia? Cervical cancer plummeted to record rates. Men should still get it so they don’t effect their partners and HPV causes all sort of cancer too.

epistasis

11 minutes ago

Yes, Michael Douglas had a throat cancer he said was from "oral sex" meaning HPV infection, and I remember social media berating him for saying that as if it were impossible, but it really is.

Random anecdote: with whole genome sequencing, which is fairly common among the rich with cancer, you can sometimes find the exact cancer driving genes that the HPV has amplified. I remember looking at one case where the HER2 gene was amplified with many copies, and you could see it attached to chunks of HPV genome. Fortunately there's now many drugs that specifically target amplified HER2, originally developed only for breast cancer, where there are diagnostic test to find the subset of breast cancers with the amplification.

0xTJ

3 hours ago

That's great to hear! Here where I am, Ontario, Canada, I just barely missed out on getting the HPV vaccine for free in high school. At the time, they were only vaccinating girls, but added boys a year or two after me.

YeahThisIsMe

8 hours ago

And I can't get the shot in Germany because I'm "too old" and just assumed to be infected with it already, anyway.

What a great system.

n1b0m

8 hours ago

Can you pay for it?

riggsdk

7 hours ago

In Denmark you can. I was in my mid thirties when I went to my doctor to ask them to prescribe it. Before each shot I would go to the pharmacy and buy one dose and go to the doctor to have them administer it for me (if I wanted to). At that time I think it was free for teenage girls, now it's free for teenage boys as well.

Fomite

7 hours ago

The evolution of who gets HPV vaccines is really interesting. At first it was young women, as vaccinating young men had a very marginal decrease in cervical cancer rates via indirect protection (which itself is a function of how many young women are vaccinated). Then as HPV infection was linked to more cancers, vaccinating young men crossed the cost-effectiveness thresholds many governments use.

Vaccinating older populations is similarly just a less clear-cut case, but it's a cost-effectiveness argument, not one purely driven by if the vaccine offers protection.

respondo2134

5 hours ago

it's not just the cost of the vaccine roll-out though, you need test on your target demo and since these are healthy people the bar is very high. If the demographic (like males over 45) shows very little involvement in the infection vectors then testing might fail the cost-effectiveness, not the delivery of the vaccine.

Fomite

17 minutes ago

Indeed. Generally for HPV, there were modeling studies showing this was probably a good idea before trials started.

bartman

8 hours ago

Generally yes. I asked my primary care physician and would have been able to get the vaccine dose from the pharmacy (paying for it myself) and she would have administered it.

deadbabe

2 hours ago

It’s insane to think that someday humanity will finally find a cure for cancer, and then after all this money and research and struggle people will just… choose not to use it.

perihelions

8 hours ago

By way of contrast, America's current top "doctor" organized a class-action lawsuit against the HPV vaccine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/... ("Kennedy played key role in Gardasil vaccine case against Merck")

> "Details of the Gardasil litigation show how Kennedy took action beyond sowing doubt about the safety and efficacy of vaccines in the court of public opinion and helped build a case against the pharmaceutical industry before judges and juries."

> "Kennedy, a longtime plaintiffs' lawyer, became involved in the Gardasil litigation in 2018 in collaboration with Robert Krakow, an attorney specializing in vaccine injury cases, Krakow said"

api

7 hours ago

It's okay, he'll have us treat cervical cancer with a juice cleanse and vibes.

ryandrake

4 hours ago

Don't forget prayer--the ultimate solution to everything!

antonvs

4 hours ago

Also the juice is whale juice.

unethical_ban

7 hours ago

I remember this being a big controversy in Texas in the 2000s. Our Republican governor, forcing girls to get the vaccine! What does he think Texan girls are, lusty?

Not like disease prevention is a universally good thing and some people tend to have sex.

At the end of the day, religious radicals like STDs because it enforces their worldview that having multiple sexual partners in a lifetime is a sin.

etchalon

8 hours ago

We have the first leaders.

NooneAtAll3

8 hours ago

Cervical cancer (uterus), not skin cancer from a bad papillomas as I thought after looking up what HPV meant

mitb6

8 hours ago

Also throat, mouth, tongue, anal and penile cancers.

astura

an hour ago

Add in anal cancer too

tialaramex

7 hours ago

It turns out a human body has a lot of surfaces facing the "outside" in some sense and we forget about the parts we can't see. Most of this surface is not covered in what we'd conventionally consider skin. It's bit like if you were looking at surfaces in a house and forgot the walls and ceiling.

Fomite

7 hours ago

Humans (and most animals) are just tubes with extra bits.

inglor_cz

8 hours ago

Good news.

Bad news is that many countries came close to wiping out measles et al. too, but it takes sustained effort to keep things like that.

chris_wot

8 hours ago

Amazing how badly the United States is regressing. Literally measles is making a comeback due to idiots like RFK.

_moof

7 hours ago

And even before the antivax nutters here went from fringe to a significant social force, HPV vaccines were already being decried for "promoting casual sex." Our culture is so broken in so many ways.

Fomite

7 hours ago

"Why haven't you cured cancer yet?"

"We have a vaccine to prevent some very serious cancers."

"But it might turn my daughter into a hussy."

tialaramex

7 hours ago

Also, forget "She might die of cancer" just exactly how bad is it if your daughter is a whore ? What else are we ruling out, independent business owner, politician ?

What happened to "I just want my children to be happy" ?

Fomite

7 hours ago

I always thought "Cervical cancer is a just punishment for my daughter's mistakes" (leaving aside if it is a mistake) was horrific.

Spivak

7 hours ago

Of course, I for sure held off on having casual unprotected sex with multiple partners as a teenager because I was worried about contracting HPV, but thanks to Gardasil my slut era was legendary and enduring.

Fomite

7 hours ago

Teenagers are notorious for making decisions based on consequences that are decades away from manifesting.

Spivak

4 hours ago

I can't tell if you think what I said was serious, I tried to hard to convey the /s.

8note

5 hours ago

"you never want grandchildren?"

JumpCrisscross

7 hours ago

Maybe we’re seeing selection pressure against those prone to addictive cycles of social-media influenced misinformation?

Like, anti-vaxers died at higher rates in Covid [1]. This will continue across disease outbreaks, particularly ones for which we have near-comprehensive vaccines like measles. And given antivax sensibility is heritable (through parenting, not genes), one would expect this to stabilize the population over several generations to one that doesn’t have this defect.

[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10123459/

braincat31415

an hour ago

The article you are referencing is based on CDC data which is not matched by a more complete data maintained by UKHSA. I think Norman Fenton commented on that at some point. I'd be careful when taking its conclusions at a face value. I actually went through that paper and looked at the UKHSA data back in 2023. And the government was spreading a lot of BS, too. I'll let the "CDC can do no wrong" crowd pile up.

boxerab

5 hours ago

very few people are against vaccines per se, they are just against *unsafe* vaccines. "anti-vax" is a term used to dismiss dissident without having to deal with their arguments i.e an ad hominem. As an analogy, if I object to high levels of mercury in fish, am I anti-fish? or anti-poisonous-fish ?

kentm

4 hours ago

The people that are against "unsafe" vaccines do not do the proper research to determine whether a vaccine is actually safe. These people claim that safe vaccines, like the COVID shots, are actually unsafe because they googled up some claims that were not rigorously researched or reviewed.

I had seen attempts to engage with these arguments in good faith. It was wasted effort.

dotnet00

5 hours ago

For just being "against *unsafe* vaccines" they sure tend to have some very weird ideas of what a safe vaccine is.

8note

5 hours ago

"unsafe" is a loaded term

in your fish analogy, you eat mecury directly, but wont eat fish that might have mercury.

the communicable disease is itself quite dangerous

boxerab

an hour ago

I think you missed the point. Granted the disease is dangerous, but what if the cure is worse ? If we don't know this is true, we ought to assume the risk outweighs the benefits until PROVEN otherwise- that is the precautionary principle. As an analogy take Vioxx, a headache remedy that caused thousands of heart attacks. Merck the manufacturer started an advertising campaign for the drug AFTER the learned it was killing people - they were ultimately fined 4.5 billion.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp048286

The docket shows us that pharmaceutical companies are serial felons who have paid some of the largest fines in history for lying about their products. It is prudent to be skeptical until proven otherwise.

braincat31415

an hour ago

I agree. Pfizer settled more than a few cases. When talking about a low probability but catastrophic event, the burden lies on the side of the vaccine manufacturer and a mandating agency (and not on the side of the consumer) to prove beyond any doubt that the treatment is safe. I doubt Pfizer has met that bar.

delichon

5 hours ago

> "anti-vax" is a term used to dismiss dissident without having to deal with their arguments i.e an ad hominem.

A slur.

chris_wot

4 hours ago

We've been dealing with anti-vaxxers for years. I've yet to see an argument from one that holds any water.

antonvs

4 hours ago

Which vaccines that are widely used today do you believe are unsafe? And why do you believe they’re unsafe?

> “anti-vax" is a term used to dismiss [dissent]

No, it’s a term used to dismiss people who keep bringing up the same arguments that have been refuted over and over.

inglor_cz

8 hours ago

This is now a global problem. The guy who started it, Andrew Wakefield, is British, and we have long had antivaxxers in Europe too.

Prior to Covid, the antivaxx scene was vaguely left-and-green oriented, biomoms, vegans and other "very natural" people; you would expect them to vote for Greens or even more alternative parties. This changed abruptly and now the antivaxx scene is mostly rightwing, but the common base is still the same distrust.

I wonder if this is the price we pay for radical informational transparency. Nowadays, democratic countries with reasonable freedom of press cannot really prevent their own fuckups from surfacing in the worst possible way. Some people react by complete rejection of anything that comes from "official" channels and become ripe for manipulation from other actors.

8note

5 hours ago

i dont think its nearly so transparent. its easy to be recommended and read some viewpoints, but very technical and hard to be recommended others.

with radical information transparency, id expect both views to be equally easy to parse and to be recommended both, in which case the choice would be obvious to everyone, or at least they could very well describe their risk tolerance to different risks, or laziness, for why they made a certain choice.

i expect im not up to date on all the vaccines i should be, but its on laziness rather than gwtting bad information. ...also a lack of information on which ones i should have.

squigz

7 hours ago

> I wonder if this is the price we pay for radical informational transparency. Nowadays, democratic countries with reasonable freedom of press cannot really prevent their own fuckups from surfacing in the worst possible way. Some people react by complete rejection of anything that comes from "official" channels and become ripe for manipulation from other actors.

Such people have always existed, unfortunately. I don't think it's a result of anything particularly new.

inglor_cz

7 hours ago

The people existed, but a portable always-running conveyor belt of bad news that is addictive enough to make them glued to the screen did not.

In the 1990s, you had maybe 15 minutes a day on average to consume news, either from a paper newspaper, or from an evening TV relation. Now, quite a lot of people spend 20 times as much time doomscrolling. Of course the impact will be much more massive.

SoftTalker

7 hours ago

Back then we had the National Enquirer and Weekly World News and similar for all the obscure conspiracy news you wanted.

inglor_cz

6 hours ago

I think that the social media is much more capable of turning various fence sitters and borderline cases into full blown conspiracy believers.

Unlike the paper products, which just lie around when not actively seeked for, the algorithms determining your feed have a lot more agency.

squigz

7 hours ago

Sure, but this implies the only source of "manipulation from other actors" is the news, media, or government. Churches, cults, and just other ignorant people existed to cause distrust in authority.

macintux

7 hours ago

Those organizations didn't have instantaneous global reach. Now everyone does.

squigz

7 hours ago

I'm not denying that there's a difference - obviously technology has enabled the scale of things to grow quite a bit, both good and bad - but it's beside my point, which is that, given that it's not a new phenomenon, blaming it on technology seems doomed to failure. Without solving for the underlying issues, people will continue to mistrust authority, whether they're being told to by news or their neighbor.

vladms

6 hours ago

Mistrusting authority might be good. What I see happening is in fact trusting too much into "authority" without penalizing it for inconsistencies - I would call it more like blind faith. I feel this happens because it makes it easier than questioning everything you hear and deciding for yourself, and accepting you might be wrong, or that the information is unknown. People want a savior and a simple solution!

Nevermark

6 hours ago

> blaming it on technology seems doomed to failure

Recognizing that technology is now so convenient, psychology manipulative, and operates in a furiously fast feedback evolutionary regime, and that it has radically increased the spread of cultural irrationality isn't about "blame" in a judgy moral way.

It is about characterizing major factors behind the problem.

The enormous amount of near instant coordinated (by intention or dynamic), interactive misinformation, made so conveniently available that large percentages of the population routinely and enthusiastically expose themselves to it, participate in reinforcing it, throughout their typical day, is very new.

> "Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced." -- James Baldwin

bbarnett

6 hours ago

That's a little like saying nuclear bombs aren't a technology, but a human problem. And you bet, they sure are, but it's a lot harder to wipe out everyone, if the nutjobs in your community just have a pointed stick.

And 'nutjobs' may be pejorative, but I'll hold on to it as apt. At the same time I assign no blame, for it is an issue of cognition. The best way I can describe it is, intelligence is not a single factor. And it's not even a few factors. It's a massive bar graph, with 1000s upon 1000s of bars, each delineating a different aspect of intelligence.

A lucky few may score high on all those bars, yet even the most intelligent of us tend to score high on only some of those bars. And my point is, I've seen people immensely intelligent on some of those bars, yet astonishingly deficient on others.

We love to make fun of politicians, so I'll use one as an example here. Politicians tend to be incredibly personable, and very difficult to dislike in person. They exude congeniality, they read you like a book, and can often orate your wallet completely out of your pocket, and you'll thank them for it too. It's how they managed to go so far politically, yet some of these same politicians have severe and massive deficiencies in cognition.

Back to the pointed sticks, and the nutjobs who would wield them pre-tech, these people are simply as they are. Yet in the past, you'd see one nutjob in a community, and they'd be surrounded by normalcy, it would temper them, mitigate their effect, sand off their edges so to speak.

Yet as our communities grew in size and scope, these individuals could finally meet more of their ilk. A large city might have dozens of them, larger still cities hundreds, and they'd meet up. And as technology grew, and access to the printing press become possible for all, and for less and less cost, these same people could then send their madness in newsletter form to even those small communities where maybe only one nutjob existed.

But those people needed to still connect in some way. Maybe through an ad in the back of a magazine, or something akin yet far less gated by 'normals'.

Yet today? Now? Algorithms match you up with all those nutjobs. Where before you might live in isolation, and the friends you had might scoff at that weird idea you have, now you've found a community of hundreds, or thousands just like you! And they all affirm your madness, they pat you on the back, they congratulate you for seeing the light! They whisper all those sweet nothings into your ear, all those secret things you knew were true, and they listen to all you say on the subject.

For the first time in your life you have a home, a community, and before TikTok, or some weird forum, it would have never all been possible. You'd have been isolated, even in the age of magazines, and print, for you'd have never found one another.

And worse, now profit enters the system. Those who would steal, or thieve, or build bridges with sub-standard concrete for profit, or anything for money regardless of cost to us all, appear on this scene. They see those nutjobs, and they seek to profit from them. They own youtube, or tiktok channels, and often do not believe in anything but profit. They'll tell you anything you want to hear, espouse any crazy idea, and like that bridge built with substandard concrete, they'll take the money and run as society collapses around them.

This profit motive was always there, see cults. Yet the reach and scope was just not what it is today, there is so much more range given to a single person now.

brewdad

7 hours ago

People have had a mistrust in authority as far back as when nomadic tribes were the norm but somebody had to decide where to hunt or gather that day or to move on. Good luck changing human nature.

brewdad

7 hours ago

Chatty Kathy could only share her moonbat ideas with a couple people at a time. Now she has a TikTok and the ability to go viral. Even folks sharing her video to mock it are spreading her message.

mrguyorama

5 hours ago

And now there is code that says "This video is doing really well, I'm going to put it in front of every single human being I can"

Your local crazy used to get patronizing nods. Now they get 100 million views.

giantg2

8 hours ago

Unlike the measles, HPV is not a good eradication candidate due to the existence of non-human reservoirs.

AnimalMuppet

8 hours ago

I think you said that backwards. HPV does not have non-human reservoirs, per Wikipedia. (Do you have evidence that it's wrong?)

giantg2

8 hours ago

Ah, looks like I might have read the paper wrong. It's theorized that some HPV strains could also be carried by non-human primates.

russdill

7 hours ago

Hence the "H"

serial_dev

7 hours ago

Although you are (as I understand) right, the question itself is valid, lots of diseases spread to species other than the one that is in the name… Chickenpox, monkeypox, swine flu, or even the Spanish flu.

nixosbestos

6 hours ago

I remember arguing in favor of Gardasil as a teenager in highschool. And now RFK Jr calling it dangerous. Someday my head might just explode.

duffpkg

5 hours ago

This article headline is a gross abuse of the conclusions of the actual study which is here: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...

This site is full of people perfectly capable of reading most studies. I would much rather see these links go to studies than endless clickbait articles about studies.

The conclusion of the study show that about 30% of the women in the study from 2017-2014 tested positive for one of several types of HPV infection. This does appear to be a reduction from an earlier 2013 study but the earlier study was by different authors with different methodology so gauging the scale of the reduction is not straightforward. My opinion is that a safe conclusion of the study is that HPV prevalence has not increased.

amluto

5 hours ago

That link says:

> What have we learnt from this study?

> Infection with HPV types covered by the vaccine (HPV16/18) has been almost eliminated. Before vaccination, the prevalence of HPV16/18 was between 15–17%, which has decreased in vaccinated women to < 1% by 2021. However, about one-third of women still had HPV infection with non-vaccine high-risk HPV types, and new infections with these types were more frequent in vaccinated than in unvaccinated women.

The conclusion seems to be that the vaccine is extremely effective at preventing infection by the strains included in the vaccine. One might reach a stretch conclusion and infer that the 9-valent vaccine would be even better as it would (probably) dramatically reduce the risk of several of the remaining “high-risk” variants.

pitpatagain

4 hours ago

The study is linked early in the article and is fairly dense, the article summarized it well and is a lot more readable.

16/18 are the most carcinogenic strains, they have been close to eradicated in Denmark. "Denmark close to wiping out leading cancer-causing HPV strains after vaccine roll-out" is the full headline and 100% accurate.

Those were the only two high risk strains covered by the vaccine used in the time frame studied. The study covers the first cohort of girls given the 2008 version of the vaccine when they recently reached age to start screening. It is expected to not see other strains affected in this study, even though current vaccines are broader. The total number of high risk HPV cases in the study went down post-vaccination.

The notion of numbered strains of HPV is about diverging lineages going back hundreds of thousands of years in a highly conserved, slowly mutating virus. They are not comparable to things like seasonal COVID or flu strains.

atombender

4 hours ago

> about 30% of the women in the study from 2017-2014 tested positive for one of several types of HPV infection.

That number was referring to different strains not covered by the vaccine. The study says the rate of infection dropped to less than 1% among those strains the vaccine protects against.