pclowes
21 hours ago
Directionally I think this is right. Most LLM usage at scale tends to be filling the gaps between two hardened interfaces. The reliability comes not from the LLM inference and generation but the interfaces themselves only allowing certain configuration to work with them.
LLM output is often coerced back into something more deterministic such as types, or DB primary keys. The value of the LLM is determined by how well your existing code and tools model the data, logic, and actions of your domain.
In some ways I view LLMs today a bit like 3D printers, both in terms of hype and in terms of utility. They excel at quickly connecting parts similar to rapid prototyping with 3d printing parts. For reliability and scale you want either the LLM or an engineer to replace the printed/inferred connector with something durable and deterministic (metal/code) that is cheap and fast to run at scale.
Additionally, there was a minute during the 3D printer Gardner hype cycle where there were notions that we would all just print substantial amounts of consumer goods when the reality is the high utility use case are much more narrow. There is a corollary here to LLM usage. While LLMs are extremely useful we cannot rely on LLMs to generate or infer our entire operational reality or even engage meaningfully with it without some sort of pre-existing digital modeling as an anchor.
foobarbecue
19 hours ago
Hype cycle for drones and VR was similar -- at the peak, you have people claiming drones will take over package delivery and everyone will spend their day in VR. Reality is that the applicability is more narrow.
soulofmischief
18 hours ago
That's the claim for AR, not VR, and you're just noticing how research and development cycles play out, you can draw comparisons to literally any technology cycle.
65
15 hours ago
That is in fact the claim for VR. Remember the Metaverse? Oculus headsets are VR headsets. The Apple Vision Pro is a VR headset.
mumbisChungo
14 hours ago
The metaverse is and was a guess at how the children of today might interact as they age into active market participants. Like all these other examples, speculative mania preceded genuine demand and it remains to be seen whether it plays out over the coming 10-15 years.
sizzle
14 hours ago
Ahh yes let’s get the next generation addicted to literal screens strapped to their eyeballs for maximum monetization, humanity be damned. Glad it’s a failing bet. Now sex bots might be onto something…
mumbisChungo
14 hours ago
It may or may not be a failing bet. Maybe smartphones are the ultimate form of human-data interface and we'll simply never do better.
jrm4
13 hours ago
I'll take your argument a bit further. The thing is -- "human-data" interfaces are not particularly important. Human-Human ones are. This is probably why it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, to beat the smartphone; VR or whatever doesn't fundamentally "bring people closer together" in a way the smartphone nearly absolutely did.
mumbisChungo
13 hours ago
VR may not, but social interaction with AR might be more palatable and better UX than social interaction while constantly looking down at at a computer we still call a "phone" for some reason.
outworlder
11 hours ago
> The Apple Vision Pro is a VR headset.
For some use cases it is indeed used for VR. But it has AR applications and all the necessary hardware and software.
ivape
17 hours ago
You checked out drone warfare? It’s all the rage in every conflict at the moment. The hype around drones is not fake, and I’d compare it more to autonomous cars because regulation is the only reason you don’t see a million private drones flying around.
dazed_confused
16 hours ago
Yes, to an extent, but I would say that is an extension of artillery and long-range fire capabilities.
jmj
16 hours ago
As is well known, AI is whatever hasn't been done yet.
freetinker
10 hours ago
Drones are delivering. Ukraine?
golergka
15 hours ago
People claimed that we would spend most of our day on the internet in the mid-90s, and then the dotcom bubble burst. And then people claimed that by 2015 robo-taxis would be around all the major cities of the planet.
You can be right but too early. There was a hype wave for drones and VR (more than one for the latter one), but I wouldn't be so sure that it's peak of their real world usage yet.
TeMPOraL
11 hours ago
Which is why I think there are two distinct kinds of perspective, and for one of them, AI hype is just about at the right levels - and being too early is not a problem, unless it delays things indefinitely.
I wrote about it recently here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44208831. Quoting myself (sorry):
> For me, one of the Beneficiaries, the hype seems totally warranted. The capability is there, the possibilities are enormous, pace of advancement is staggering, and achieving them is realistic. If it takes a few years longer than the Investor group thinks - that's fine with us; it's only a problem for them.
skeeter2020
13 hours ago
>> You can be right but too early.
Unless opportunity cost is zero this is a varation on being wrong.
jangxx
19 hours ago
I mean both of these things are actually happening (drone deliveries and people spending a lot of time in VR), just at a much much smaller scale than it was hyped up to be.
giovannibonetti
18 hours ago
Drones and VR require significant upfront hardware investment, which curbs adoption. On the other hand, adopting LLM-as-a-service has none of these costs, so no wonder so many companies are getting involved with it so quickly.
nativeit
18 hours ago
Right, but abstract costs are still costs to someone, so how far does that go before mass adoption turns into a mass liability for whomever is ultimately on the hook? It seems like there is this extremely risky wager that everyone is playing--that LLM's will find their "killer app" before the real costs of maintaining them becomes too much to bear. I don't think these kinds of bets often pay off. The opposite actually, I think every truly revolutionary technological advance in the contemporary timeframe has arisen out of its very obvious killer app(s), they were in a sense inevitable. Speculative tech--the blockchain being one of the more salient and frequently tapped examples--tends to work in pretty clear bubbles, in my estimation. I've not yet been convinced this one is any different, aside from the absurd scale at which it has been cynically sold as the biggest thing since Gutenberg, but while that makes it somewhat distinct, it's still a rather poor argument against it being a bubble.
pxc
18 hours ago
A parallel outcome for LLMs sounds realistic to me.
deadbabe
18 hours ago
If it’s not happening at the scale it was pitched, then it’s not happening.
falcor84
18 hours ago
Considering what we've been seeing in the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel wars, drones are definitely happening at scale. For better or for worse, I expect worldwide production of drones to greatly expand over the coming years.
jangxx
18 hours ago
This makes no sense, just because something didn't become as big as the hypemen said it would doesn't make the inventions or users of those inventions disappear.
deadbabe
16 hours ago
For something to be considered “happening” you can’t just have a handful of localized examples. It has to be happening at a large noticeable scale that even people unfamiliar with the tech are noticing. Then you can say it’s “happening”. Otherwise, it’s just smaller groups of people doing stuff.
threatofrain
18 hours ago
Good drones are very Chinese atm, as is casual consumer drone delivery. Americans might be more than a decade away even with concerted bipartisan war-like effort to boost domestic drone competency.
The reality is Chinese.
sarchertech
16 hours ago
Aren’t people building DIY drones that are close to and in some cases superior to off the shelf Chinese drones?
threatofrain
15 hours ago
Off the shelf Chinese drones is somewhat vague, we can just say DJI. Their full drone and dock system for the previous generation goes for around $20k. DJI iterates on this space on a yearly cadence and have just come out with the Dock 3.
54 minute flight time (47 min hover) for fully unmanned operations.
If you're talking about fpv racing where tiny drones fly around 140+ mph, then yeah DJI isn't in that space.
sarchertech
15 hours ago
That hardly seems like it would take the US 10 years to replicate on a war footing aside from the price.
I mean if we’re talking dollar to dollar comparison, the US will likely never be able to produce something as cheaply as China (unless China drastically increases their average standard of living).
tonyarkles
11 hours ago
There’s a really weird phenomenon too with drones. I’ve used Chinese (non-drone) software for work a bunch in the past and it’s been almost universally awful. On the drone side, especially DJI, they’ve flipped this script completely. Every non-DJI drone I’ve flown has had miserable UX in comparison to DJI. Mission Planner (open source, as seen in the Ukraine attack videos) is super powerful but also looks like ass and functions similarly. QGC is a bit better, especially the vendor-customized versions (BSD licensed) but the vendors almost always neuter great features that are otherwise available in the open source version and at the same time modify things so that you can’t talk to the aircraft using the OSS version. The commercial offerings I’ve used are no better.
Sure, we need to be working on being able to build the hardware components in North America, and I’ve seen a bunch of people jump on that in the last year. But wow is the software ever bad and I haven’t really seen anyone working to improve that.
whiplash451
19 hours ago
Interesting take but too bearish on LLMs in my opinion.
LLMs have already found large-scale usage (deep research, translation) which makes them more ubiquitous today than 3D printers ever will or could have been.
benreesman
19 hours ago
What we call an LLM today (by which almost everyone means an autogressive language model from the Generative Pretrained Transformer family tree, and BERTs are still doing important eork, believe that) is actually an offshoot of neural machine translation.
This isn't (intentionally at least) mere HN pedantry: they really do act like translation tools in a bunch of observable ways.
And while they have recently crossed the threshold into "yeah, I'm always going to have a gptel buffer open now" territory at the extreme high end, their utility outside of the really specific, totally non-generalizing code lookup gizmo usecase remains a claim unsupported by robust profits.
There is a hole in the ground where something between 100 billion and a trillion dollars in the ground that so far has about 20B in revenue (not profit) going into it annually.
AI is going to be big (it was big ten years ago).
LLMs? Look more and more like the Metaverse every day as concerns the economics.
rapind
19 hours ago
> There is a hole in the ground where something between 100 billion and a trillion dollars in the ground that so far has about 20B in revenue (not profit) going into it annually.
This is a concern for me. I'm using claude-code daily and find it very useful, but I'm expecting the price to continue getting jacked up. I do want to support Anthropic, but they might eventually need to cross a price threshold where I bail. We'll see.
I expect at some point the more open models and tools will catch up when the expensive models like ChatGPT plateau (assuming they do plateau). Then we'll find out if these valuations measure up to reality.
Note to the Hypelords: It's not perfect. I need to read every change and intervene often enough. "Vibe coding" is nonsense as expected. It is definitely good though.
juped
17 hours ago
I'm just taking advantage and burning VCs' money on useful but not world-changing tools while I still can. We'll come out of it with consumer-level okay tools even if they don't reach the levels of Claude today, though.
strgcmc
16 hours ago
As a thought-exercise -- assume models continue to improve, whereas "using claude-code daily" is something you choose to do because it's useful, but is not yet at the level of "absolute necessity, can't imagine work without it". What if it does become, that level of absolute necessity?
- Is your demand inelastic at that point, if having claude-code becomes effectively required, to sustain your livelihood? Does pricing continue to increase, until it's 1%/5%/20%/50% of your salary (because hey, what's the alternative? if you don't pay, then you won't keep up with other engineers and will just lose your job completely)?
- But if tools like claude-code become such a necessity, wouldn't enterprises be the ones paying? Maybe, but maybe like health-insurance in America (a uniquely dystopian thing), your employer may pay some portion of the premiums, but they'll also pass some costs to you as the employee... Tech salaries have been cushy for a while now, but we might be entering a "K-shaped" inflection point --> if you are an OpenAI elite researcher, then you might get a $100M+ offer from Meta; but if you are an average dev doing average enterprise CRUD, maybe your wages will be suppressed because the small cabal of LLM providers can raise prices and your company HAS to pay, which means you HAVE to bear the cost (or else what? you can quit and look for another job, but who's hiring?)
This is a pessimistic take of course (and vastly oversimplified / too cynical). A more positive outcome might be, that increasing quality of AI/LLM options leads to a democratization of talent, or a blossoming of "solo unicorns"... personally I have toyed with calling this, something like a "techno-Amish utopia", in the sense that Amish people believe in self-sufficiency and are not wholly-resistant to technology (it's actually quite clever, what sorts of technology they allow for themselves or not), so what if we could take that further?
If there was a version of that Amish-mentality of loosely-federated self-sufficient communities (they have newsletters! they travel to each other! but they largely feed themselves, build their own tools, fix their own fences, etc.!), where engineers + their chosen LLM partner could launch companies from home, manage their home automation / security tech, run a high-tech small farm, live off-grid from cheap solar, use excess electricity to Bitcoin mine if they choose to, etc.... maybe there is actually a libertarian world that can arise, where we are no longer as dependent on large institutions to marshal resources, deploy capital, scale production, etc., if some of those things are more in-reach for regular people in smaller communities, assisted by AI. This of course assumes that, the cabal of LLM model creators can be broken, that you don't need to pay for Claude if the cheaper open-source-ish Llama-like alternative is good enough
rapind
16 hours ago
Well my business doesn't rely on AI as a competitive advantage, at least not yet anyways. So as it stands, if claude got 100x as effective, but cost 100x more, I'm not sure I could justify the cost because my market might just not be large enough. Which means I can either ditch it (for an alternative if one exists) or expand into other markets... which is appealing but a huge change from what I'm currently doing.
As usual, the answer is "it depends". I guarantee though that I'll at least start looking at alternatives when there's a huge price hike.
Also I suspect that a 100x improvement (if even possible) wouldn't just cost 100 times as much, but probably 100,000+ times as much. I also suspect than an improvement of 100x will be hyped as an improvement of 1,000x at least :)
Regardless, AI is really looking like a commodity to me. While I'm thankful for all the investment that got us here, I doubt anyone investing this late in the game at these inflated numbers are going to see a long term return (other than ponzi selling).
benreesman
18 hours ago
Vibe coding is nonsense, and its really kind of uncomfortable to realize that a bunch of people you had tons of respect for are either ignorant or dishonest/bought enough to say otherwise. There's a cold wind blowing and the bunker-building crowd, well let's just say I won't shed a tear.
You don't stock antibiotics and bullets in a survival compound because you think that's going to keep out a paperclip optimizer gone awry. You do that in the forlorn hope that when the guillotines come out that you'll be able to ride it out until the Nouveau Regime is in a negotiating mood. But they never are.
sebzim4500
18 hours ago
>LLMs? Look more and more like the Metaverse every day as concerns the economics.
ChatGPT has 800M+ weekly active users how is that comparable to the Metaverse in any way?
benreesman
17 hours ago
I said as concerns the economics. It's clearly more popular than the Oculus or whatever, but it's still a money bonfire and shows no signs of changing on that front.
threetonesun
16 hours ago
LLMs as we know them via ChatGPT were a way to disrupt the search monopoly Google had for so many years. And my guess is the reason Google was in no rush to jump into that market was because they knew the economics of it sucked.
benreesman
12 hours ago
Right, and inb4 ads on ChatGPT to stop the bleeding. That's the default outcome at this point: quantize it down gradually to the point where it can be ad supported.
You can just see the scene from the Sorkin film where Fidji is saying to Altman: "Its time to monetize the site."
"We don't even know what it is yet, we know that it is cool."
skeeter2020
13 hours ago
Th author is not bearish on LLMs at all; this post is about using LLMs and code vs. LLMs with autonomous tools via MCP. An example from your set would be translation. The author says you'll get better results if you do something like ask an LLM to translate documents, review the proposed approach, ask it to review it's work and maybe ask another LLM to validate the results than if you say "you've got 10K documents in English, and these tools - I speak French"
kibwen
18 hours ago
No, 3D printers are the backbone of modern physical prototyping. They're far more important to today's global economy than LLMs are, even if you don't have the vantage point to see it from your sector. That might change in the future, but snapping your fingers to wink LLMs out of existence would change essentially nothing about how the world works today; it would be a non-traumatic non-event. There just hasn't been time to integrate them into any essential processes.
whiplash451
18 hours ago
> snapping your fingers to wink LLMs out of existence would change essentially nothing about how the world works today
One could have said the same thing about Google in 2006
kibwen
17 hours ago
No, not even close. By 2006 all sorts of load-bearing infrastructure was relying on Google (e.g. Gmail). Today LLMs are still on the edge of important systems, rather than underlying those systems.
johnsmith1840
16 hours ago
Things like BERT are a load bearing structure in data science pipelines.
I assume there are massive number of LLM analysis pipelines out there.
I suppose it depends if you consider non determinist DS/ML pipelines "loadbearing" or not. Most are not using LLMs though.
3D parts regularly are used beyond prototyping though as tooling for a small company can be higher than just metal 3D parts. So I do somewhat agree but the loss of productivity in software prototyping would be a massive hit if LLMs vanished.
datameta
18 hours ago
Without trying to take away from your assertion, I think it is worthwhile to mention that part of this phenomenon is the unavoidable matter of meatspace being expensive and dataspace being intangibly present everywhere.
nativeit
18 hours ago
[citation needed]
deadbabe
18 hours ago
large scale usage in niche domains is still small scale overall.
dingnuts
19 hours ago
And yet you didn't provide a single reference link! Every case of LLM usage that I've seen claimed about those things has been largely a lie -- guess you won't take the opportunity to be the first to present a real example. Just another rumor.
whiplash451
19 hours ago
My reference is the daily usage of chatgpt around me (outside of tech circles).
I don’t want to sound like a hard-core LLM believer. I get your point and it’s fair.
I just wanted to point out that the current usage of chatgpt is a lot broader than that of 3D printers even at the peak hype of it.
dingnuts
19 hours ago
Outside of tech circles it looks like NFTs: people following hype using tech they don't understand which will be popular until the downsides we're aware of that they are ignorant to have consequences, and then the market will reflect the shift in opinion.
basch
19 hours ago
No way.
Everybody under a certain age is using ChatGPT, where they were once using search and friendship/expertises. It’s the number 1 app in the App Store. Copilot use in the enterprise is so seamless, you just talk to PowerPoint or outlook and it formulated what you were supposed to make or write.
It’s not a fad, it is a paradigm change.
People don’t need to understand how it works for it to work.
lotsoweiners
14 hours ago
> It’s the number 1 app in the App Store.
When I checked the iOS App Store just now, something called Love Island USA is the #1 free app. Kinda makes you think….
dingnuts
13 hours ago
I know it's popular; that doesn't mean it's not a fad. Consequences take time. It's easy to use but once you get burned in a serious way by the bot that's still wrong 20% of the time, you'll become more reluctant to put your coin in the slot machine.
Maybe if the AI companies start offering refunds for wrong answers, then the price per token might not be such a scam.
retsibsi
16 hours ago
Even if the most bearish predictions turn out to be correct, the comparison of LLMs to NFTs is a galaxy-spanning stretch.
NFTs are about as close to literally useless as it gets, and that was always obvious; 99% of the serious attention paid to them came from hustlers and speculators.
LLMs, for all their limitations, are already good at some things and useful in some ways. Even in the areas where they are (so far) too unreliable for serious use, they're not pure hype and bullshit; they're doing things that would have seemed like magic 10 years ago.
whiplash451
19 hours ago
I see it differently: people are switching to chatgpt like they switched to google back in 2005 (from whatever alternative existed back then)
And I mean random people, not tech circles
It’s very different from NFTs in that respect
jrm4
17 hours ago
Not even remotely in the same universe; the difference is ChatGPT is actually having an impact, people are incorporating it day-to-day in a way that NFTs never stood much of a chance.
hk1337
18 hours ago
> Directionally I think this is right.
We have a term at work we use called, "directionally accurate", when it's not entirely accurate but headed in the right direction.
abdulhaq
20 hours ago
this is a really good take