acyou
a day ago
If you're familiar with USA military history, the Americans are (were) famous for not doing things by the book for the right reasons, and letting common sense prevail, as well as incentivizing good outcomes.
“A serious problem in planning against American doctrine is that the Americans do not read their manuals, nor do they feel any obligation to follow their doctrine.”
“The reason that the American Navy does so well in wartime is that war is chaos, and the Americans practice chaos on a daily basis.”
So heavily simplifying things and with 20/20 hindsight this pilot essentially didn't do the right thing, even if through no fault of their own, and apparently in the US Navy you don't get rewarded for doing the wrong thing. This is what keeping incentives aligned looks like.
Hilift
21 hours ago
That quote was Russian observations on their securing valuable technical information, but lamenting on their inability to overcome their capability gap through spying due to changes in tactics of their "main adversary". In WW2, a major factor for the US Naval success in the Pacific was a change in attack doctrine. Aircraft would attack relentlessly from multiple directions, overwhelming the Japanese defenses. In the Battle of the Bismarck Sea, when Australian and US pilots mauled a Japanese supply convoy with Bristol Beaufighter aircraft. In the battle, aircraft fake a torpedo run, the ships changed course to align with the aircraft and minimize the attack surface, then they were strafed with the four 20 mm cannons. The air campaign in the Pacific was much more vicious and effective than Europe. One of the pilots quoted
"They went in and hit this troop ship. What I saw looked like little sticks, maybe a foot long or something like that, or splinters flying up off the deck of ship; they'd fly all around ... and twist crazily in the air and fall out in the water. Then I realized what I was watching were human beings. I was watching hundreds of those Japanese just blown off the deck by those machine guns. They just splintered around the air like sticks in a whirlwind and they'd fall in the water."
The Russians have difficulty adapting their tactics on the field. Reviewing the successes of the US battles must be quite different than throwing bodies at a front line.
jalla
18 hours ago
The major factor in winning the Pacific battles was code breaking the Japanese communications. Doctrine doesn't matter when you know what the enemy is doing or planning.
wkat4242
8 hours ago
The problem with code breaking is that you can't benefit from it too much because your enemy will realise you're reading their messages and change their practices.
For this reason the allies had to let convoys be hit sometimes, because they couldn't always be too suspiciously at the right place at the right time. Luckily the German confidence in Enigma was so high that their top leaders ignored reports of enigma being broken, they thought it literally impossible.
I'm not sure how this played out in the Japanese war. But the point remains. You can't use signals intelligence too much unless it's literally ending the war in a couple of days.
whythre
14 hours ago
That is crazy reductive to the point of ignorance. Doctrine does matter. You might know what your enemy is doing but if you fight wrong, even with foreknowledge, you will not win.
woooooo
11 hours ago
For one important example, the battle of Midway was a close thing even with the intelligence they had. Execution matters.
HPsquared
18 hours ago
It's probably also in contrast to their previous adversary, the Germans.
timcobb
16 hours ago
In my opinion, the Russians are quite tactically adaptive. The current war has seen tit-for-tat adaptation between both sides. The Russians don't/can't invest resources in not losing personnel. It's not a priority for them.
InDubioProRubio
20 hours ago
Its also a cultural thing. I dont think a entrepreneurial libertarian texan going into a conflict is going to accept whatever the state decrees. Buy your own gear, improvize on the spot, ignore the brass on top, producing results.
kstrauser
16 hours ago
You’ve never been through boot camp, huh. Such a person would have an unbelievably unpleasant time until:
- The military sent them home,
- They cracked and sent themselves home, or
- They got over themselves and learned how to be part of the larger whole.
Making it through with those edge opinions intact is not an option.
Tanoc
13 hours ago
That wasn't really true during World War II. Some of the most celebrated veterans of that war were anti-authority as hell, doing things like stealing parts of fellow aircrews' planes to rebuild their own, ignoring formation to get better torpedo angles, and running ahead of everyone else in a tank. In Korea that attitude still survived, but only in the air, and by the end of the Vietnam war it had basically been stamped out. The U.S. military since about 1972 is way less lenient than before then, especially as the equipment's gotten more expensive.
rascul
8 hours ago
> stealing parts of fellow aircrews' planes to rebuild their own
US Army still does that today to some extent (not with planes anymore though). It's not stealing, they're just getting their stuff back.
gambiting
19 hours ago
Why would such a person be anywhere near the front line?
stainablesteel
18 hours ago
because their family has been doing it for generations and they keep winning
chipdart
18 hours ago
> (...) and they keep winning
That's the textbook definition of survivorship bias. It's like a lottery winner boasting about his winning strategy that everyone else is just not able to learn.
bumby
16 hours ago
I read the OP differently. I think there can be many angles to a person's identity makeup and they don't always cohere perfectly. A person can have their identity in "entrepreneurial libertarian" while also having it as "someone who comes from a family valuing military service". Humans aren't always perfectly rational when it comes to their different values/tribal identities.
There are a lot of people who join the military while simultaneously "hate authority" for example.
chipdart
14 hours ago
My answer was not touching on the topic of identity. I'm referring to the relationship between cause ad effect.
bumby
13 hours ago
That is still downstream of the question of “why would someone make such a [seemingly contradictory] decision.” The person you replied to is misunderstanding the OP, which they later clarified.
My point is understanding outcome causality doesn’t necessarily have to even enter the decision.
bluGill
16 hours ago
At what point do we conclude the lottery isn't as random as they claim if one person keeps winning. Statistically someone will win, there are good odds someone will win twice, but the odds of anyone winning 3 times is almost zero.
chipdart
16 hours ago
> At what point do we conclude the lottery isn't as random as they claim if one person keeps winning.
The whole thing about survivorship bias is that you make a critical failure in analysis when confusing partial observations of post-facto results with causality.
bluGill
14 hours ago
The point of statistics (one of many) is to figure out how many observations we need. If someone wins the lottery 10 times with their system I will assume that they have a good system (if they have a lot of losses as well it means the system isn't perfect, but it still works), but if you only win once and never enter again I assume it is survivorship basis. Of course by winning the lottery I mean win a large jackpot - most have smaller prizes that you have high odds of winning many times if you play often enough.
manwe150
13 hours ago
Only if you only play 3 times though (in your previous example). Statistics also are about figuring out what sort of outliers must exist for a process to be fair (true random). For something like a mega lottery with terrible odds, then winning twice is already very unlikely. But for something easy like a coin flip, every N trials should have a run of about sqrt N heads or wins in a row if it is unbiased. For something unlikely like lotto, it is closer to looking at the birthday paradox: the probability of one person winning twice is low; but the probability that there exists a person who won twice is high, at random.
gambiting
18 hours ago
No I mean more like....
1) why would someone who calls themselves libertarian even join any kind of formalized armed force
2) even if they did, how would the command not realize that clearly such a person is unfit for duty and at best should be confined to some work far away from actual combat
pc86
16 hours ago
You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
ajuc
19 hours ago
It works the exact opposite way.
People from totalitarian shitholes improvise a lot more than people from functioning democracies (because they have to improvise to survive daily life). And they trust their state and follow the rules a lot less (and for a good reason - their state exploits and lies to them to a degree you can't imagine living in a free country).
USA wouldn't send its army to Mexico with 12 hours of fuel telling the soldiers it's exercises. After selling half the fuel and ammo on black market and providing them with faulty non-spec tires so that significant percentage of their vehicles just broke the first week it actually had to drive somewhere.
Russian army did all of the above, on a massive scale. Nobody in Russia was surprised except maybe putin. IMHO he was more surprised that Ukraine was organized than that his own army wasn't.
Think for a while how you'd adapt to living in such a society. One of the first things is that you pretend to do what they tell you and then completely ignore it and do whatever you can to survive. And then to adapt to that - the army has units that shoot at you from behind if you don't want to be a "meat wave" in the next frontal attack.
Army won't provide you shoes your size? Steal. Army won't provide you drones or anti-drone measures? Cope cages and loot Mavics from malls. Etc. In totalitarian countries (and I've lived in one so I'd know) everybody had to learn DIY cause you couldn't trust the economy/country to provide you with the things you need.
Oligarchy and libertarianism is the same system, just looking from POV of rulers vs ruled. When society doesn't work people have to be libertarians. When everybody's a libertarian - oligarchs rule and society doesn't work.
bumby
15 hours ago
>And they trust their state and follow the rules a lot less
It was my understanding that the opposite was true in Ukraine early in the conflict. Russia suffered high casualties because they still relied on a central command structure and field leaders were reluctant to make decisions without the express validation of their superiors. This led to them being sitting ducks as they waited for confirmation, and resulted in many high level soldiers being killed because they had to travel to the front lines to communicate orders for any effect.
ajuc
14 hours ago
The centralised structure, the lack of trust and selfishness, and the improvisation and ignoring the rules are all connected.
The less people care about rules - the harsher you have to be to enforce them.
The high level officers had to go to the front lines not because foot soldiers were helpless without them. They had to go there because without them the soldiers would ignore the orders to go forward, hide in relatively safer place, start looting and lie in the reports they executed the orders perfectly killing thousands of enemies :)
Remember when Ukraine invaded Kursk region this year? Kadyrov troops that defended the border there said they were "bypassed" by Ukrainians when they "were eating dinner" :)
bumby
9 hours ago
>the soldiers would ignore the orders
Doesn't that undermine the OP's claim that people in more totalitarian regimes have higher trust in the state and hierarchy?
user
14 hours ago
cmrdporcupine
17 hours ago
You nailed it.
Lack of social solidarity and communal trust has got to be a kiss of death in wartime. Especially when fighting against an opponent who has it in spades. (US in Vietnam, Russia in early days of the war in Ukraine, etc.).
whatshisface
16 hours ago
That is all true, except there's another reason people learn to DIY. That is when they have a basically functional government and economy but live in a rural area. The US libertarian ethos stems from a cultural memory of pioneers and farmers that couldn't be served by a centralized state.
cafard
16 hours ago
Ok, but who acquired the land for them?
whatshisface
16 hours ago
In most cases, the settlers traveled into tribal territory and started fending off attacks themselves. They didn't have to attack first because they were establishing permanent settlements in the territory of nomads.
vel0city
14 hours ago
This isn't really clarifying the question of "who acquired the land for them", just acknowledging they (sometimes? often?) had to defend for themselves out there. In the end those settlers purchased deeds to those lands often for very cheap from the US federal government and expected for the federal government to support their Westward movement (which often did happen as well).
They acquired the land from the government and expected some amount of protection provided by the federal government as well.
And even then a ton of that settlement happened after many wars and what not with Native American tribes and groups in those territories.
whatshisface
13 hours ago
Without getting into the (worthwhile) details of US expansion, it's important to note that the security provided by the continental and federal governments did not stop raids, and on a scale of services provided relative to dysfunctional present day governments was truly hands-off. There is running water in Aleppo.
asacrowflies
14 hours ago
This is basically entirely false ... They would only move into settle AFTER the government clears the land of most natives and signed "treaties" with others. Along with mass relocation and government programs to incentivize the settlers like encouraging the military to kill all Buffalo on site or actively salt spring water sources in favour of European deep wells.etc.etc.
rightbyte
a day ago
These sort of quotes are cute but not really usefull. Probably counterproductive.
There is 0 people in the US Navy that did service in the 2WW. There has been multiple generations. There is no way there is that much of institutional inertia, if the quote was correct at the time.
Punnishing failure disincentives a lot of things. It has drawbacks.
whizzter
19 hours ago
It fits perfectly if you look at it from a "balls" standpoint, this pilot ejected for whatever by-the-book reason when his electronics were bad and yet the airplane continued for 11 minutes just on autopilot.
How would you expect a pilot that gives up so "easily" to lead other men into a high risk-high reward operation when he gives up himself so easily?
Yes, maybe he was at low altitude during the descent and found himself feeling in peril but the optics sure doesn't look good when it went on for 11 minutes.
aleph_minus_one
19 hours ago
> It fits perfectly if you look at it from a "balls" standpoint, this pilot ejected for whatever by-the-book reason when his electronics were bad and yet the airplane continued for 11 minutes just on autopilot.
> How would you expect a pilot that gives up so "easily" to lead other men into a high risk-high reward operation when he gives up himself so easily?
If you use an ejection seat, there is also a given high probability that you will never be capable of flying a fighter jet afterwards, so it also takes quite some balls to make the decision to use it.
Also, the pilot did not "give up", but decided that it is smarter to retreat and save lives instead of going to death. In a a high risk-high reward situation, I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators (in opposite to risk avoiders - the common person in society) over hypermasculine risk takers - but I'm a nerd.
So, the only explanation that I have is that the military wants to bully around and show macho behavior.
pjc50
18 hours ago
> Also, the pilot did not "give up", but decided that it is smarter to retreat and save lives instead of going to death.
The thing is, millennia of military culture is devoted to training people out of simply avoiding fighting by running away, or even fear of death, because otherwise it can't function and those who run away endanger others by doing so.
I'm reminded of Admiral Byng being court-martialled (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Byng) and the famous line "in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time pour encourager les autres"; the phrase "pour encourager les autres" has entered English to refer to any punishment which is intended to have a strong behavioral effect on the non-punished members of the same class. There will definitely be an element of that here. This guy is being punished conspicuously to remind other pilots that ejecting is a last resort.
> In a a high risk-high reward situation, I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators (in opposite to risk avoiders - the common person in society) over hypermasculine risk takers - but I'm a nerd.
There are no such "hyperrational risk calculators", you just mean "someone who would make the same decision as me in this situation".
> the military wants to bully around and show macho behavior
Well, yes, that's kind of intrinsic to the nature of an organization which exists to project force.
aleph_minus_one
16 hours ago
> There are no such "hyperrational risk calculators", you just mean "someone who would make the same decision as me in this situation".
No, I don't mean that.
1. I'm not the kind of person who believes that their own judgement is the best and most rational one.
2. I am very convinced these people do exist. For example look at rationalism websites and forums: there you might find some of such people.
---
> Well, yes, that's kind of intrinsic to the nature of an organization which exists to project force.
I don't think so: you can project force either by
a) gore violence ("hyper-masculinity") or
b) intellectual supremacy
rightbyte
15 hours ago
The Byng article is interesting.
I have this theory that military officers are mainly evaluated on how many of their soldiers that die or go missing. It is the easiest hard number to make a metric off. Easy to verify. The more soldiers an officer can kill, the better he seems.
Obviously admirals had a harder task since sunk enemy ships is easier to count. And Byng had witnesses from land. He should have sunk 3 or 4 ships, in hind sight.
flir
16 hours ago
Candide. Fun fact (and nothing to do with the article): The country was pissed at Byng. The road to London was lined with pitchfork-wielding yokels for pretty much the first fifteen miles. I don't think he did anything wrong but I can see why, in that atmosphere, he was the bone thrown to appease the dogs.
bumby
17 hours ago
>I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators
My problem with this take is that humans are very poor risk estimators, and it gets worse as the probability of risk gets lower. I'm willing to bet that even if he made the "right" decision to stay with the craft, he wouldn't have been able to accurately calculate the risk in an after-action-report, even with the benefit of lower stress and an abundance of time.
aleph_minus_one
16 hours ago
> My problem with this take is that humans are very poor risk estimators
Indeed few people have this rare capability, that's why I explicitly named them this way ("hyperrational risk calculators").
bumby
16 hours ago
I’m somewhat skeptical that they exist, at least in the numbers needed to fill pilot slots. Barring certain neurological disease, I don’t think people are “hyper rational” despite even appearing that way to the outside, or identifying themselves as such. We like to sometimes think of our brains as cold computers but they’re not, and even less so in time-critical situations like flying a damaged aircraft. We’re moreso “hypertationalizers” than “hyperrational”
aleph_minus_one
8 hours ago
> I don’t think people are “hyper rational” despite even appearing that way to the outside, or identifying themselves as such.
As I wrote in my parallel answer https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42115831 I do believe that on rationalism websites or forums, it's quite plausible that some of this breed of people hangs around.
---
> I’m somewhat skeptical that they exist [...] in the numbers needed to fill pilot slots.
I think we agree with this weaker statement that I created by using the ellipsis. But, as I wrote,
> In a a high risk-high reward situation, I strongly prefer hyperrational risk calculators (in opposite to risk avoiders - the common person in society) over hypermasculine risk takers
I'd strongly prefer these people - assuming such a choice exists.
rightbyte
18 hours ago
> So, the only explanation that I have is that the military wants to bully around and show macho behavior.
Ye that goes without saying.
With attrition trench warfare being in fashion again I expect this to get worse.
Soldiers need to feel they are perpetrators, not victims.
It 'takes balls' to wait out shell after shell for the one with your name on it. A conservative risk reward analysis would suggest bailing. People that don't understand the odds of waiting or fragging are preferrable.
wkat4242
7 hours ago
It's been known to happen that airplanes that were unrecoverable, recovered after the pilot ejected due to the massive shift in centre of gravity and the ejection forces. Like the cornfield bomber: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornfield_Bomber
So just the fact that it continued flying isn't really enough to justify that it was a wrong decision. Like all aviation matters it requires a comprehensive analysis.
rightbyte
18 hours ago
It cuts both ways.
Personally I wouldn't want to be led by someone that rather hit the ground in a ball of fire than risk the embarrassment of ejecting.
A pilot that eject has at least shown that he has the balls to lose...
Fighter jets fall out of the sky quite often. I don't get why it suddenly is such a big deal with F35. It seems like some hardware fanboyism.
themaninthedark
18 hours ago
That is from your point of view.
Perhaps the military point of view is they would rather have a leader who takes more risky action and attempts to win the fight for the team rather than one who only prioritizes their personal survival.
rightbyte
17 hours ago
Sure. But it is a trade off.
I guess it is somewhat futile to reason about the pilot since we don't really know how bad the situation appeared to him. Like, we don't know where he is on the scale, except that we know he is not suicidal.
nkrisc
13 hours ago
Genuine question: have you served in any branch of any military?
rightbyte
13 hours ago
Yes. Platoon sgt. mech. inf. No deployment anywhere.
InkCanon
an hour ago
Those quotes we're almost certainly made up jokes and not assessments of the US military. The first appears to come from an Internet image attributing it to "A Russian Document". The second has no known source and has been variously referred to both the US Navy and Air Force.
victorbjorklund
a day ago
US pilots havent really been engaged in a war against a peer since ww2. It might be true. But we probably shouldnt extrapolate from bombing terrorists in the desert to actually fighting against say China.
cdot2
21 hours ago
The US air force fought significant enemy air forces in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and in the Balkans. Their doctrine has not remained untested since 1945.
elashri
19 hours ago
The closest wars are the Iraqi and Balkans ware. For the first the vast majority of Iraq air force were destroyed on the ground or fled to neighboring countries, there were rarely any meaningful air to air fights.
For Balkans, there were minimal air activities for Serbian air force. They were up against NATO (not only US) and all of the little opposition they had were using air defence systems which managed to down a couple of Nato air Jets. I wouldn't describe each of these two as significant in any meaningful way. Just to give example on scale. In Balkans, serbian air force had like a dozen modern air craft against ~ 1000 NATO aircrafts.
One can say that the it was a little bit different in Korea and Vietnam but this was much closer to 1945 than nowadays.
Spooky23
17 hours ago
Huh? The US was essentially fighting the Soviets in Korea and Vietnam. It was a contentious, significant conflict.
Vietnam in particular saw the cost of allowing the SAC/bomber mafia from dominating strategy. The Soviet and Vietnamese pilots were pretty badly mauling the US Air Force and Navy, whose armament and tactics were built around bomber interception.
bluGill
16 hours ago
Korea has been in cease fire since 1953. Vietnam ended in 1975. There has been a lot of changes since then. Not only have people studied and tried to learn lessons, but technology has changed significnatly. We have no clue how the current military would approach Vietnam or Korea if they happened today (both sides would be different!)
elashri
16 hours ago
Regarding these two wars my comment was exactly that.
> One can say that the it was a little bit different in Korea and Vietnam but this was much closer to 1945 than nowadays.
Korean war started almost five years after the end of WWII and Vietnam war is 50 years old now. The two wars in Balkans and Iraq is much relevant in experience compared to the earlier two. And while the soviets provided the Vietnamese with AAA and aircrafts, there were little soviets engagement in the actual fighting (regarding the air).
Prbeek
19 hours ago
Take Vietnam for instance where the Soviets supplied the Vietcongs with AD systems and at times manned them The Americans lost over 10,000 aircrafts over a 10 year period which is an average of 3 per day.
The US airforce cannot survive the attrition rate that a war with Russia or China would bring.
elashri
19 hours ago
For completeness most of these losses were UAVs and Helicopters. [1]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_of_the...
pjc50
18 hours ago
> The US airforce cannot survive the attrition rate that a war with Russia or China would bring.
Nuclear exchange by ICBM would destroy most aircraft, their crews, their maintenance crews, and the factories for the replacement. There will be no dogfights.
refurb
19 hours ago
While 10,000 sounds like a lot, about 25% were accidents, and 75% in combat, so 7,500.
That's 7,500 aircraft lost over 5.25 million sorties, or 14 lost per 1,000 sorties.
The loss rate was 5 times higher in Korea and 25 times higher in WW2.
And as the other comment mentioned, most were helicopters (5,600) and UAV's (1,000). Only 3,400 fixed wing, manned aircraft were lost.
dylan604
16 hours ago
After reading this, I thought the opening music for Top Gun was about to start playing
kjellsbells
17 hours ago
I imagine this is one reason why the current Ukrainian war is so interesting to belligerents other than the Ukrainians themselves. The US is taking copious notes on what modern land wars could look like, how drones can and can't be used in place of conventional air cover, etc. Ditto the other side, eg the North Koreans.
One might say, crudely, that US military superiority is based on an overwhelming advantage in materiel, plus troops skilled in the use of advanced weaponry (so that one soldier has the impact of 10, say).
That might work in large scale massed battle against a mid range opponent, but is untested against a true industrial peer like China, and has been shown not to work especially well against highly dispersed, low tech adversaries such as in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
Spooky23
17 hours ago
The American military is world class in every respect, but its weakness the by design lack of integration with civil and intelligence functions.
Vietnam and Afghanistan are examples of how when faced with overwhelming military might, asymmetric conflict ultimately rules. The anti-colonial movements in India, Ireland and other places underlines that.
I think what Ukraine demonstrates is that we collectively don’t realize that Ukraine is a segment of a larger conflict. The long term influence campaign by the Russians to destabilize NATO and the US has been phenomenally successful. They have managed a brilliant operation in the UK and US to sow chaos internally.
josefresco
15 hours ago
> Vietnam and Afghanistan are examples of how when faced with overwhelming military might, asymmetric conflict ultimately rules.
Afghanistan was an evolution in American military strategy. Post 9/11 the Americans did what no one thought was possible - They (using the CIA and then JSOC) infiltrated Afghanistan secretly, forged alliances (bribed) with local militias/tribal leaders and within weeks had significantly degraded Taliban/Al Qaeda's fighting ability.
The world (and Al Qaeda) expected cruises missiles and "death from above". That they got was "death from within AND above". Whether this was a positive development for the US military is up for debate, but it certainly wasn't the traditional "big military pound small military with might" approach until later in the war.
It's the 20+ year long occupation which failed and clearly, like Vietnam or Afghanistan for the Soviets, or Russia's current efforts to destabilize, American patience is shorter than the enemies will to fight.
kjellsbells
6 hours ago
> within weeks had significantly degraded Taliban/Al Qaeda's fighting ability
I'm not sure whether it was genuinely degraded (eg, Taliban controlled areas giving up their weaponry and not permitting new stocks) or temporarily interrupted (cash buying a temporary cessation in attacks).
I wasn't there so I can't comment but from 15000 miles away Afghanistan looked a lot like Vietnam to me. Maybe not in the Westmoreland mode of body count, but in the failed attempts to win hearts and minds as a counterinsurgency tactic and the difficulty of crossing a cultural chasm in order to do so (and failing). Plus the propping up of local potential leaders that really had no national legitimacy and doomed attempts to localize the war (aka what Nixon once called Vietnamization).
I'm not saying I could have done any better. Afghanistan was and remains a fiendishly unwelcoming place.
actionfromafar
19 hours ago
On the other hand, specifically with China there's nothing to extrapolate from at all really.
FrustratedMonky
18 hours ago
Maybe that is more what is happening.
We've been at 'peace' for too long.
This is making an example for the rest of the team to get ready for things to 'get real'.
sofixa
21 hours ago
> US pilots havent really been engaged in a war against a peer since ww2
Maybe Korea, where there were Chinese and Russian-trained and sourced jets?
HPsquared
18 hours ago
Still, Korea was >70 years ago.
Taylor_OD
14 hours ago
But the review found that the pilot did do the right thing and did follow the manual. The definition of, "out of control" seems to be to blame. He's even been cleared to fly again.
bumby
9 hours ago
It's important to acknowledge he was part of a Test & Evaluation squadron. It's usually part of their jobs to push the flight envelope so that people can define procedures. Reading between the lines, it sounds like the pilot may have been too conservative in their eyes for that purpose.
user
17 hours ago
petre
a day ago
He did the right thing. He's alive and well, fired from his command instead of deceased like the other servicemen in the OV-22 and FA-18D.
cwillu
21 hours ago
“Better to die than to look bad” is one of the more toxic sayings associated with military aviation.
close04
20 hours ago
Nothing in the incident report suggests the pilot's life was at any point in imminent danger, with the backup instruments functioning, and the plane being flyable.
He "technically" did well to eject only because the manual was too vague. But at the very least "I could have done more but technically didn't have to" is not what you're looking for in a squadron commander. Which is why he's still allowed to fly (he follows the manual) but not trusted with more than that (because those extras are not in the manual).
gambiting
19 hours ago
Maybe I'm going out on a limb here, but I imagine the most straightforward explanation is the correct one - he ejected because he didn't feel safe flying this aircaft anymore. I cannot possibly imagine that any pilot would eject from an aircraft they felt comfortable flying, given that actually ejection is horrifically dangerous and is very likely to maim or kill you, with most pilots unable to return to active duty after ejecting. He wasn't sitting there going "well the plane is flying fine, but the manual says to eject so off I go I guess".
bluGill
16 hours ago
Ejecting from a plane is dangerous. If you have control of the plane then you should be looking to do an emergency landing - there are typically acceptable landing places all over that can get you safely to the ground. I don't know how much control he really had, but it sounds like he had enough to land.
bumby
17 hours ago
>with the backup instruments functioning
Tbf, the article describes them as "basically functioning". As someone with avionics experience, there's a lot of wiggle room in the word "basically" and I'd want to know the details about the remaining functionality before drawing any hard conclusions.
conradfr
19 hours ago
Maybe this pilot did not have the upmost faith in this aircraft.
petre
12 hours ago
I'm pretty damn sure he was thiking about the manual when his controls were glitching and decided to eject. Which also carries risk: his helmet and mask were ripped off and he had to drop the seat pan and raft in order not to get tangled in the power lines.
The Navy's contractors should sort out the glitches in their expensive space junk or build UAVs instead. What if this was a real combat scenario instead of an exercise, where the pilot didn't get to call 911 and risked getting captured by ISIS or some other maniacs?
GaryNumanVevo
a day ago
The jet was fine, it kept flying for 64 miles. He probably ejected because there had been a recent osprey crash with causalities and he was scared.
stavros
a day ago
"The jet kept flying for 64 miles" and "the jet was fine" are WILDLY different things.
ARandomerDude
15 hours ago
Yes, for a Cessna or a 737. Not for a modern fighter.
close04
21 hours ago
"The jet was not 100% fine" and "the jet was 100% unflyable" are WILDLY different things.
The question to ask in this case is "would the pilot's presence in the cockpit have made a difference to the possible outcome?".
In my reading of the article the jet could be controlled, and the pilot had access to the backup displays and communication systems. The plane flying such a long distance means the pilot reacted poorly under pressure and did the bare minimum as per the unclear procedures, before catering to his own safety. While not wrong according to the unclear procedure, you want more from someone commanding a squadron.
The pilot could have stayed put at the very least to attempt to mitigate the impact (pun intended) of the eventual crash, if not to actually land the plane using the backup instruments before ejecting to safety. That plane crash could have easily been a tragedy.
rightbyte
a day ago
When an user reports buggy or glitchy behaviour I usually don't write it off as cowardice.
I had the same problem in the auto industry. Some times the test drivers were accused of imagining things or sabotaging when the problem could not be recreated.
close04
21 hours ago
When your software crashes in a house it hopefully doesn't kill the whole family. Comparing the expectations from a pilot and squadron commander to a random user of a random software doesn't do any favors to the pilot and suggests you misunderstand the magnitude of the difference.
Even in the follow-up anecdote from the auto industry, a car test driver has vastly different profile than this pilot. They inherently work with untested vehicles and software, where the manual was not yet written. This pilot just followed the broadest interpretation of an existing manual.
cwillu
21 hours ago
He compared it to test drivers reporting faults in automotive software, not random software running on a pc.
Vecr
20 hours ago
The map is not the territory. Unless you can convincingly explain how your map would have been better in the situation, and together with his apparent dislike of dying would still have had you stick with the aircraft, he shouldn't be blamed.
fragmede
a day ago
64 miles sounds quite far, and I've gone quite fast on my motorcycle, but the top speed of the F-35B (that they tell us) is 1,200 mph. At that speed that's just over 3 minutes.
ayewo
21 hours ago
From the article:
> The jet had flown for 11 minutes and 21 seconds after Del Pizzo’s ejection, slowly climbing as high as 9,300 feet.
After about 11 minutes, the report said, the jet banked down and started descending to its right, clipping the treetops of a forest along the way before crashing. The report said no one was injured by the crash, but it did damage several trees and crops. The $100 million jet was shredded into pieces and a total loss.
xeonmc
17 hours ago
To shreds you say? Well how were the trees? To shreds you say?
tgsovlerkhgsel
21 hours ago
3 minutes is an eternity for something like a jet.
If a car drove at highway speed for 3 minutes without crashing after the driver jumped out, you'd be impressed too.
ExoticPearTree
21 hours ago
According to the report, the jet flew for at least 11 more minutes. No one flies fighter jets at max speed unless absolutely necessary.
fragmede
19 hours ago
That's still a decent ground speed of 350 mph! Never gotten my bike to go quite that fast
jyounker
21 hours ago
But it didn't land itself, unlike the cornfield bomber: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornfield_Bomber
wiseowise
a day ago
[dead]