caseyy
14 hours ago
This is what the future of communication looks like. It's really a massive step forward. No one will have to die from exposure when their cars break down, no planes will go missing, and no more black spots in natural disasters. It is also quite dignified and civilised that we are using this technology first to help the most vulnerable.
Communication is and has always been an important element in human organisation. Imagine if corrupt governments could no longer shut down the internet and cell service. Even a world war probably wouldn't disrupt this. People will be really empowered by this technology, we just need more competition in this space. But one step at a time.
Also: simmer down Elon fans and haters, this is not only about Elon. Look at the bigger, global picture.
acidburnNSA
14 hours ago
Agree with all of that, except the world war part. Satellites will definitely be fair game in world war 3... probably one of the first targets.
Ham radio will live on!
caseyy
14 hours ago
I don't know – would we risk Kessler Syndrome for a war? Win a piece of land and doom humanity for a hundred years of regress in space? Maybe, probably can't be ruled out.
As for jamming, is it feasible or practical to jam very large parts of the world? I can't imagine it would be. It seems to me like jamming would probably be used for specific military purposes and people would be left alone to communicate with each other otherwise.
It's not that I'm saying this could not be done. It could. But this is not the most likely scenario in my head. The immense benefit to all humanity is a very likely scenario, in contrast.
LoRa is another equally exciting technology that has a lot of potential in all the spaces I mentioned. I just can't currently imagine a reason it would go mass-market.
0xffff2
14 hours ago
Of course we would. And anyway the Starlink constellation is low enough that even destroying the whole constellation would have a minimal impact after a decade.
wazer5
4 hours ago
>> UCS has been warning about this under the last administration, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/space-based-missile-defense...
The early Starlink constellation clearly mirrored the design (up to inclination and number of satellites) of the National Academy of Science report on a modern SDI / Star Wars Program https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/13189/making-sense... ... it was obvious to me then. But soon after the Republican administration started calling for further funding of such a program https://www.science.org/content/article/decades-after-reagan... ... and now it's in Project 2025 and Trump campaign speeches.
jeroenhd
14 hours ago
With how close to earth Starlink satellites fly, it won't take hundreds of years. Without the occasional boost back into orbit, it'll only take a couple of years for them to fall back to earth. Same with most spy satellites. We can do without space internet for a few decades if we blow up several of these constellations.
As for further-away satellites (Iridium etc.), that's a bigger risk, but there aren't that many that make sense to target in a war.
mattashii
14 hours ago
> it won't take hundreds of years
Maybe not for Starlink itself, but its debris may be eccentric enough to hit satellites in higher orbits, thus causing an upward cascade of collisions resulting in debris clouds that do have a real possibility of remaining in orbit for many times the debris of Starlink.
wazer5
12 hours ago
Precisely
Heliosmaster
14 hours ago
Energetic collisions can send debris on higher orbits with significant longer time to decays. It all depends on kinetic energy added
Rebelgecko
12 hours ago
If pieces got bumped into a higher apogee wouldn't their orbit end up with a lower perigee as well? If so I think that might actually be better for deorbiting quickly
bagels
11 hours ago
Yes. The military believes that our adversaries would attack their satellites. China, USA and India have demoed the capability to shoot satellites in non wartime, adding tons of debris.
croes
14 hours ago
The same type that risks a nuclear war would easily risk Kessler Syndrome.
And don't forget there are people who think their god would protect them.
whaaaaat
12 hours ago
> would we risk Kessler Syndrome for a war?
I mean, yes, absolutely! I wouldn't trust world leaders to understand Kessler syndrome, let alone care about it. If a world leader is comfortable killing hundreds of thousands of people to make their nation "safe", targeting civilian infrastructure, I have no doubt that they'd blow up some stuff in orbit.
To be clear, I don't want to risk it. I'd prefer we didn't live in such a warlike world. But the current world leaders are out here bombing nuclear plants and residential districts. A few satellites will feel very, very far away to them.
ianburrell
14 hours ago
LoRa will never take off since it doesn't have the bandwidth for wide usage. Short messages are the limit. It also can't replace this usage since there aren't nodes in the middle of the ocean. If anything, this will reduce the need for LoRa messaging.
kortilla
11 hours ago
Russia has risked Kessler syndrome for less with ASAT missiles
yarg
14 hours ago
There a plenty of men who would be content to be kings of the ashes;
Don't consider this from the perspective of a reasonable person - ask yourself: what would psychopaths do?
aaomidi
13 hours ago
It’s less that and more just basic strategy.
Your enemy has sat communications. You don’t. Well, it’s unlikely you’re going to get sat communications - so what do you do?
It’s logical to take out enemy communications.
The other side of the coin is, the enemy with the satellite can try to offer you the use of them as well, so you wouldn’t feel the need to destroy them - but will they?
ShakataGaNai
14 hours ago
While I really really hope no one would be that stupid as to risk a Kessler syndrome... I think it's really likely in a very specific situation:
A non-space-dominant power (so not Russia/China/USA) gets into a tiff with someone using satellites. This player does have access to at least the vaguest concept of a ballistic missile. They take said missile and program it to fly into space (as most beyond the tactical level do), and detonate.
Nuclear or not, they don't even have to hit the satellite, they just have to throw up shrapnel. Hell, you can replace most of the explosive warhead with ball bearings. It may not immediately take down a specific satellite but it's almost assured to fuck space up.
And in case it's not obvious, this seems like a very North Korean type thing to do. Their missiles aren't terribly reliable or accurate (so far), but good enough to get into space and ruin everyones day for a very long time there after. They have, what, a single satellite? [1] when everyone else has hundreds? Why not level the playing field and assure no one can use any of them - given enough time.
I'd be willing to be its in someones MAD playbook as well. It only takes a few hundred nukes to effectively end all life on earth, permanently. There are still 5,000 plus in both Russia and the US's stockpile [2], not to mention China, France and the UK has a couple hundred each. What do you do with some of those few thousand extra nukes? Detonate them in air and orbit to take out your Doomsday planes [3] and any potential orbital capabilities - just in case you survive.
But honestly, the Kessler Syndrome wouldn't really be a concern at that point since everything, including the roaches, would be a radioactive pile of glass.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/north-koreas-first-...
gruez
10 hours ago
>It only takes a few hundred nukes to effectively end all life on earth, permanently
Human civilization maybe, but "all life on earth" is a stretch
gosub100
11 hours ago
By definition of going to war, they are willing to risk their very existence. Taking out satellites and making orbit entry fraught with hazards seems a very rational choice for many opponents on the world stage.
aaomidi
13 hours ago
If the recent Middle East events have shown anything, nothing is off the table with a ww3 scenario.
numpad0
11 hours ago
Why does this exact word "hate" always appear in the top comment on Musk related topics? Is someone grepping this string for some purposes?
ActorNightly
7 hours ago
>Look at the bigger, global picture.
Global picture doesn't work with people in charge of this. If someone shows substantial evidence of mental decline, would you want them anywhere near anything that has to do with global communications?
throwaway48476
11 hours ago
The aircraft body attenuates the signal. That's why all the antennas are placed outside.
wkat4242
13 hours ago
Planes have had access to sat Comms for decades. MH380 had it but it was deactivated. Most likely by a suicidal pilot. The engines had their own uplink that was still active. But Starlink isn't going to solve that kind of problem.
hcarvalhoalves
10 hours ago
> Imagine if corrupt governments could no longer shut down the internet and cell service. Even a world war probably wouldn't disrupt this.
That’s quite naive, to believe a private company is not under political influence.
https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-inf...
croes
14 hours ago
Satellites can be hacked, jammed or destroyed
LEO satellites need constant replacement.
acover
12 hours ago
Drones staying connected in enemy territory.
akira2501
12 hours ago
> Imagine if corrupt governments could no longer shut down the internet and cell service.
Even in the parts of the world where this occurs it has been shown to be nothing more than a surface level inconvenience.
> Communication is and has always been an important element in human organisation.
Precisely. We don't exactly need the internet or cell service. We've got techniques and historical methods going back to the beginning of, unsurprisingly, recorded history.
> People will be really empowered by this technology
They're already empowered. This will mostly just convenience them.
gruez
10 hours ago
>> Imagine if corrupt governments could no longer shut down the internet and cell service.
>Even in the parts of the world where this occurs it has been shown to be nothing more than a surface level inconvenience.
"Internet shutdowns" like the ones in Kashmir involves all internet being shut down, not just a few sites being blocked on the ISP's DNS servers. That's hardly a "surface level inconvenience".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_India#I...
akira2501
41 minutes ago
You've misunderstood me. People who have ears and mouths will communicate. Even if you blind and gag these, they will _still_ find a way to communicate, and to organize.
Put another way, these peoples lives are "not good," not because the Internet is hard to use, it's because of other factors. Which means improving their internet access will only _minimally_ improve their position.
delfinom
9 hours ago
Eh? Planes going missing is because operators don't want to buy into satcom systems or the pilot pulled the fuses. Most US airlines fully know where their plane is at all times , complete with plane internal telemetry beamed to an engineering department at the airline.
asynchronous
14 hours ago
I agree with the sentiment but LEO constellations like Starlink can and have been disrupted, via sub-orbital jamming. Not to mention that in actual large conflict surface to LEO missiles will simply destroy large amounts of satellite constellations.
dotnet00
13 hours ago
Starlink is supposedly harder to jam than typical satellite comms due to its use of phased array communication. IIRC you need to either be flying overhead or putting out a ton more power in a ground based jammer to be effective.
And as the other user mentioned, no country at the moment has the kind of stockpile of ASAT weapons needed to wipe the constellation (plus, due to orbital dynamics, there's a limit to how quickly they can take out satellites).
Between trying to wipe the constellation and jamming it, it'd be far more cost effective to jam even accounting for the higher power requirements/lower jamming range.
There would also be other interesting options like capturing and using enough terminals to force the entire cell to be disabled. That has been one of the challenges SpaceX has had to deal with near the frontlines in Ukraine.
throwaway48476
11 hours ago
You can build a Faraday cage with a hole in the roof and starlink will be mostly unjammable.
throw73391073
11 hours ago
Starlink satellites are vulnerable to repeated uplink transmitting their preamble code (which is public and the same across any user terminal). The satellites are so tuned to that code you can jam them through their receive sidelobes.. taking out all beams on the satellite.
throwaway48476
11 hours ago
Won't you need n jammers = n satellites in view for this? I haven't seen anyone commit to investing in this.
throw73391073
11 hours ago
A single omnidirectional transmitter on the ground can transmit this one preamble code in all directions and it jams all satellites in view. All Starlink satellites use the same uplink code and they can't change it because it's how new terminals enter the network.
bagels
10 hours ago
You could use a phased array to target each of them rapidly
panick21_
14 hours ago
No government currently exists that has nearly enough rockets to impact Starlink. There is a big difference between doing individual tests and taking down a constellation of 1000s.
verzali
3 hours ago
You don't need to hit every satellite. You only need to create a lot of debris, and that'll do it for you. Alternatively the radiation from a nuclear blast could take out a big chunk of the network, which is presumably why Russia is working on orbiting nuclear weapons.