bawolff
4 hours ago
huh.
I was betting on it being russia.
As a grey-zone war tactic, i feel like it doesnt super make a lot of sense for iran. France isn't super involved, so its more likely to draw them in then make them think the costs of supporting USA is unacceptable.
On the other hand, not much of Iran's strategy has made much long term sense and more has felt like desperation from a gov that is out of options and wants to go down swinging, so i suppose this fits with that.
ndiddy
an hour ago
If it really is Iran, the best reasoning I can think of is that it's like a demonstration of their offensive hacking capabilities to the US. It lets them show that they can use computer hacking to disrupt commercial operations and cause economic losses. If you look at it from that way, it makes sense that they went after Europe. Going after the US could cause an escalation in the war, so instead they go after European countries which will not do anything in response. The freezer controllers that were hacked are also made by Danfoss, a European company. I have no knowledge whatsoever of the commercial freezer market, but if being European means that Danfoss has a higher market share in Europe compared to the US, it lets them pull off this demonstration without burning a more valuable exploit.
rdtsc
4 hours ago
Then next level would be to think if this were also a false-flag attack who would have wanted to look like Iran did it.
bawolff
4 hours ago
This would be a terrible false flag. I know people like conspiracy theories, but nothing about this suggests false flag.
rdtsc
4 hours ago
> I know people like conspiracy theories, but nothing about this suggests false flag.
I am not saying it is, just interesting to analyze who it would have been if it was. Does it benefit Iran to attack France? I guess? Maybe just a target of opportunity. US freezers are just too damn locked down(!). Or does it benefit someone else to make it look like Iran did it, kind of a thing...
Well you were betting it was Russia, and I kinda expected that as well. But then, yeah, probably Russia would want to boast that they did it as a threat or show of force not make it look like their semi-allies (Iranians) did it.
bawolff
2 hours ago
Mostly i'd just say - false flags are extremely high risk. You don't do something like that just to get france a little bit upset with Iran. If you are going to go for a false flag, you do something extreme as that is the only way for the expected pay off to counterbalance the severe risk.
t-3
2 hours ago
The most important part of a false flag is to have media support pushing the false narrative before any alternative narratives have a chance, and Iran definitely doesn't have that. The uncertainty about who was attacking and these late revelations make it even less likely to be a false flag, IMO. Everybody was expecting this to be the Russians.
Ajedi32
4 hours ago
This has been Iran's strategy throughout the entire war. Them attacking France isn't any less rational than attacking, say, Qtar, or blockading non-US ships bound for non-US countries transiting the straight of Hormuz. They can't really fight back against the US directly, so instead they lash out indiscriminately against anyone or anything that's even remotely friendly to the US.
t-3
2 hours ago
France has been the most bellicose in rhetoric among European states, and they've given assistance to the Saudis in their conflict with Yemen. Given that Iran seems to view all these conflicts as different parts of a broader geopolitical and regional struggle, choosing to target France makes some sense. In the context of France's current political troubles it makes less sense to meddle and invite backlash, but perhaps they think that they will have the sympathy of the protesters and large immigrant community in France.
spwa4
2 hours ago
List of countries Iran has attacked: Israel, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Azerbeidjan, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Greece, Oman, Syria, Azerbaijan, Turkey and of course US forces.
Of course, they targeted civilians in all of the above countries.
And if you include attacks on ships, the list goes all the way from China to Paraguay and has dozens of entries. Essentially all civilian as well, meaning their attacks against actual military ships were a minority of their attacks.
Of those, perhaps Israel and maybe Qatar can be considered defensive actions. And perhaps the attack on Greece was accidental (really aiming for a US ship in the Mediterranean)
If you made a full list of everything Iran has the physical ability to hit and compared to the list they did hit, the only missing countries would be Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan and Armenia.
I must say, it also seems to me unlikely in the extreme the French immigrant community, or anywhere in Europe, would significantly be on Iran's side. First, they're largely economic migrants, suffering due to Iran's actions. Second, they're largely from countries Iran attacked. Third, they're Sunni, not exactly Iran's traditional allies. Fourth: they're not making any money of Iran.
So ... maybe it's just me but I don't think rhetoric is the problem here.
phainopepla2
42 minutes ago
This comment makes it seem as if all these other countries were just standing around peacefully and Iran decided to attack them for no reason. The majority of those countries host US bases, many of which were used to stage attacks on Iran, and all of which are fair targets in a war started by the US (and Israel). It's also extremely puzzling, to say the least, why you would say that "perhaps" their attacks on Israel could be considered defensive, when Israel is one of the two that started this last war.
t-3
44 minutes ago
> Of course, they targeted civilians in all of the above countries.
I haven't dug into it deeply, but I was under the impression that most of the Iranian targets were US bases and US-owned oil fields/energy infrastructure, with relatively few domestic civilian interests harmed. Am I mistaken?
I doubt the public in any country cares much about Iran's blockade, given that the US has "counter-blockaded" and claimed ownership and control of the stait. Iran was attacked first, then sneak attacked during negotiations, and has maintained a coherent and consistent policy during negotiations. Common people are sympathetic and view them as the underdog.
> Third, they're Sunni, not exactly Iran's traditional allies.
Muslims are far less divided than Western policy-makers imagine IMO, most have solidarity WRT Palestine and broader Middle Eastern geopolitics regardless of sectarian affiliation. Iran has been mostly successful in tying their struggle to the issue of Israel/Palestine, especially with the recently-interested younger people in western countries who have less reflexive reaction against Iran.
jst1fthsdys
31 minutes ago
The US started to host US military personnel in civilian hotels after Iran targeted US bases and they weren't safe to stay there.
So, in essence, the US used the civilians as human shields.
JumpCrisscross
3 hours ago
> This has been Iran's strategy
Modelling Iran as a monolith seems to lead to errors more than it simplifies analysis. It's absolutely possible that nine parts of their mosaic [1] didn't want to open a new front and one went YOLO.
petre
3 hours ago
France is pushing for a two state solution in Israel. So it was dumb to attack it to begin with. I don't know what they are trying to accomplish. Legitimize the recent US and Israeli attacks against Iran? The Iranian leadership probably doesn't want peace in Israel because if that ever happens, they cannot further instrumentalize the Palestinians and Lebanese muslims against Israel.
bawolff
2 hours ago
I don't think Iran particularly cares about the two state solution or Palestinians in general. They want to be the regional power of the middle east, which means they need to destabilize their rivials (Israel and Saudi Arabia) hence they fund their enemies.
It is no different than what America and the USSR were doing during the cold war just on a smaller scale. Playing cold war games is tricky though because its easy to over extend or let your proxies drag you into a conflicts you don't want. This is what happened to Iran and thus the cold war turned hot.
noduerme
3 hours ago
Iran's beef with Israel is not because they care about the Sunni Palestinians or Palestinian land rights or something like that. They certainly don't want peace, they want Israel wiped off the face of the earth as a religious goal in itself, and for being the only non-Islamic country in the Middle East. Any concern expressed by Iran for Palestinians is purely for propaganda purposes: It's easier for Westerners to sympathize with than saying they'd like to destroy Israel and kill all the Jews simply for existing.
Matl
4 hours ago
> Them attacking France isn't any less rational than attacking, say, Qtar, or blockading non-US ships bound for non-US countries transiting the straight of Hormuz
It does make sense if you think about it for longer than 5s - it's about U.S. allies putting pressure on the U.S. to end the war. This whole propaganda about Iran being irrational is so dumb it's embarrassing.
The US is threatening to wipe out Iran's civilization, the EU is very tepid about the whole thing at best. Really sad to see, but not surprising. There's zero consistency or principle involved.
Ajedi32
4 hours ago
Yes, attacking uninvolved third parties seems like a great way to pressure them to end the war, if by "end the war" you mean joining it on the other side and helping finish you off.
Traditionally that has been how countries tend to respond to military attacks on their soil. Iran's only saving grace seems to be that they're too ineffectual to pose any actual, serious threat to countries like France.
Matl
2 hours ago
I don't personally think it's a great move by them by any means, but I think it's shallow to not try and understand how they may see it, as a bit more complicated than 'attacking uninvolved third parties', especially given these things seems to be happening across the EU[2], so it's likely not specifically about France.
This also seems to have happened at US bases[3].
It's rather likely their attempt to show that they can 'reach' further than conventional means would suggest.
1 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/uk-france-germ...
2 - https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/temperature...
3 - https://www.food-safety.com/articles/11974-refrigerator-malf...
optimalsolver
3 hours ago
Iran's strategy is what caused the GOP their worst electoral disaster in living memory.
It's also why the US is highly reluctant to return to high-tempo combat.
bawolff
3 hours ago
> Iran's strategy is what caused the GOP their worst electoral disaster in living memory.
I think that is only a win if you have an extremely american centric perspective of this conflict.
So they did that. Then what? Do you really think that is going to translate into anything significant on the battle field? It might have some marginal benefits but it probably won't matter in the big picture for Iran.
Matl
2 hours ago
So they should sit around and let the US and Israel 'destroy Iranian civilization' I guess? Is that your suggestion?
They're weaker than the countries attacking them. So causing inconvenience so that pressure will be put on the US to end the war by countries the US might listen to.
Is that strategy going to work? Not sure. But does it have a chance of working? Maybe.
bawolff
2 hours ago
> So they should sit around and let the US and Israel 'destroy Iranian civilization' I guess? Is that your suggestion?
I'm just saying it isn't going to win them the war. The president broadly controls what the us military does. He doesn't need congress or the senate.
You seem to be mixing up "wanting to win" with "actually winning". Of course Iran wants to win this conflict, but that doesn't mean they are actually winning.
> They're weaker than the countries attacking them.
Yes, getting into conflicts from a position of weakness is generally a bad plan. Succesful countries plan for this sort of thing well before the conflict starts which results in the conflict not happening in the first place.
Iran had strategies in place for this, but they ended up backfiring.
>Is that strategy going to work? Not sure. But does it have a chance of working? Maybe.
Imposing costs on your opponent is a tried and true strategy that almost certainly could work. However Iran actually has to impose real costs instead of just propaganda wins. It seems like they were doing this best earlier in the war and now have run out of steam.
Matl
2 hours ago
> Imposing costs on your opponent is a tried and true strategy that almost certainly could work. However Iran actually has to impose real costs instead of just propaganda wins.
The price of oil, US midterm results, Gulf countries scrambling, that certainly doesn't look like they haven't imposed real costs.
> Yes, getting into conflicts from a position of weakness is generally a bad plan. Succesful countries plan for this sort of thing well before the conflict starts which results in the conflict not happening in the first place.
If by 'getting into conflicts' you mean 'getting invaded by the US and Israel' then sure. That just seems to be saying 'don't get invaded, sucker' which, while sound advice doesn't actually work out if someone's intent on invading you.
The Iranians are not trying to 'win' as such, but rather impose enough cost on the attackers that continuing the war no longer makes sense for them.
The truth is, you're not seemingly saying much of anything besides 'Iran bad'.
bawolff
an hour ago
> That just seems to be saying 'don't get invaded, sucker' which, while sound advice doesn't actually work out if someone's intent on invading you.
Israel and USA have been intent on invading Iran for decades. But they didn't. Then suddenly they did. That didn't just happen randomly. Iran took a bunch of foreign policy risks that backfired spectacularly making them vulnerable to invasion. If they made different decisions, or if they just got luckier, they wouldn't have been in a vulnerable position and this wouldn't have happened.
In many ways, the art of war starts long before the battles start. The things Iran could have done differently to affect the outcome of this war would probably have to have been done back then. It is a bit too late for them now.
> The Iranians are not trying to 'win' as such, but rather impose enough cost on the attackers that continuing the war no longer makes sense for them.
Yes, that is how all wars where the sides aren't evenly matched work.
But all they have to show for it is slightly higher prices at the pump, and its unclear they will even be able to maintain that going forward. It isn't looking good for them.
> The truth is, you're not seemingly saying much of anything besides 'Iran bad'.
I'm just saying they are losing and don't seem to have good prospects going forward. If by bad, you mean in the sense of their strategic position - then yes, iran's strategic position is very bad.
Jtsummers
an hour ago
> Israel and USA have been intent on invading Iran for decades. But they didn't. Then suddenly they did.
There is a war between the US/Israel and Iran, but there has not been an invasion. Attacks from a distance are not invasions. Contrast with the Russia-Ukraine war, where there actually has been an invasion.
tptacek
3 hours ago
I don't think attacking France did anything to help that cause. Certainly we know from experience what attacking America would have done for them.
hx8
3 hours ago
I don't think turning off American Supermarket Refrigeration would cause the US to escalate.
user
3 hours ago
tptacek
3 hours ago
You want to talk about things that might spark an actual US land invasion of Iran? Seems up there.
hx8
3 hours ago
Why? So far it doesn't seem to be causing much escalation in France, why would it be different for the US?
bawolff
2 hours ago
America does tend to take geopolitical slights fairly personally relative to other countries.
Not to mention one of the limiting factors for america in this war is public opinion. I'm sure they would love some way to sell it to the american public.
tptacek
an hour ago
Our responses to state-sponsored attacks on our soil are perhaps best characterized as "unhinged".
user
2 hours ago
MomsAVoxell
3 hours ago
>lash out indiscriminately
Discrimination is a fallacious argument, if this is indeed an Iranian action, since Iran has been the target of a great number of indiscriminate attacks from the NATO bloc, including cyber attacks on its own food systems, also.
>Iran's strategy
I'm curious how you learn of Iran's strategy?
bawolff
2 hours ago
"lash out indiscriminately" is a criticism of their strategy. Not an argument over if it is ethical or who deserves what.
Going all, two wrongs make a right, misses the point. We aren't debating who is right but if iran's actions are likely to lead to them winning.
MomsAVoxell
2 hours ago
If it were a lash, it would not be necessarily targeting specific infrastructure, no?
Indiscriminately - I suppose you mean "not attacking only military targets" - well I don't mean it from ethical stance, but rather the nature of tit for tat warfare, which is what this is.
>winning
Yeah, lost me there.
heisenbit
3 hours ago
Russia would benefit if Europe started acting aggressively towards Iran (getting distracted from supporting Ukraine) and they are certainly not beyond false flag operations. Thinking about it their military is using literal false flag operations all the time to dupe their own leadership.
maxglute
3 hours ago
> doesnt super make a lot of sense for iran
It makes complete sense.
France headlines Operation Aspides, the Euro navy in Gulf of Aden vs Houthis. They are very involved, directly blunting Iran + Houthi trying to impose cost on west via control / attack on commercial shipping. Hence they get targeted, it's just Iran establishing mutual deterrence, you fuck around in our backyard, we fuck around in your infra and extract economic costs. Meanwhile their infra is basically gone, the amount of damage Iran can inflict vs receive via grayzone at this point is asymmetrical.
Roland303
4 hours ago
Iran russia and china and nk are all working for the same efforts as far as destabilizing the west and ideally turning back the clock on the whole citizens have rights thing that western citizens have been so uppity about and influencing the world with since the 1400's, barring that goal, settling on shitting up the place enough to put an end to western lead global order and returning to an age of regional powers with absolute authority in their spheres of influence. I dont think the attack needs to make sense, the statue of liberty stands in new york harbor, we are the same entity to them, they are at war with us.
cgio
3 hours ago
Let’s not go down the liberty rhetoric. They could claim on their end they are all about self determination against colonialist practices (and with Russia excepted the others have a historical excuse to claim this.) It is obviously a broad power play, we are all wise to want our part to be on the winning side for rational reasons, but moralising a punch fest is not adding anything more than illusions. After all, our western governments are abundantly adopting the authoritarian aspects of population control from these countries, maybe that’s our next problem maybe it’s our current one.
OhMeadhbh
3 hours ago
I was guessing North Korea. But then again, I'm in the states and I think we're required to blame everything on North Korea these days.
pmarino90
4 hours ago
Considering the help Iran is getting from Russia I am honestly not that surprised.
bawolff
4 hours ago
i mostly meant from a motive perspective.
Russia going, nudge nudge shame about those freezers, maybe if you stopped giving aid to ukraine those freezeers will stop breaking, is a strategy that maybe could work with little downside because what is france going to do? double sanction russia?
But for iran, there is not a lot of room for france to move to be more pro iran that isnt high cost, but lots of low cost ways to be more anti iran, so it seems like a bad strat.
bamboozled
3 hours ago
They are allies and I guess Russia could've suggested they do it, or at least knew about it and didn't care.