paxy
a day ago
Comparing it to the US isn’t really meaningful considering the EV market here is on life support.
Federal subsidies were eliminated. Funding for charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing was rolled back. ICE emission regulations were repealed. Individual states were barred from enforcing their own standards. EVs are down to 6% share of new vehicles sold.
Most domestic manufacturers have given up on EVs entirely and written off their investments. Tesla is the only one standing, and their US sales have also been falling for the last couple years.
Looking back 2024 is probably going to be the peak of the US EV market.
iamjake648
a day ago
This post really fails to go beyond basic headlines.
> Federal subsidies were eliminated. Funding for charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing was rolled back.
These are both signs of a maturing market. It's a good thing that DCFC operators like Ionna, Walmart, etc. are still charging ahead at a pretty rapid pace, even without federal funding. Ionna especially has been deploying at a crazy speed.
> Individual states were barred from enforcing their own standards.
Litigation on this is still playing out. If car manufacturers aren't planning for these to swing back into force with a change of government, they are fooling themselves.
> Most domestic manufacturers have given up on EVs entirely and written off their investments.
Again, not true. Some investments like battery manufacturing, sure, but that's not what they were ever good at. GM has a pretty robust line of EVs, and Ford has bet big on their new platform underpinning on their new 'affordable' truck.
> Tesla is the only one standing, and their US sales have also been falling for the last couple years.
2023 was a stand out year for them, but it's not like they are falling off a cliff. We should expect Tesla sales to fall as other competitors like Rivian, Hyundai/Kia and even Toyota/Subaru release updated offerings.
kube-system
a day ago
Federal subsides weren't rolled back because the market was taking off on its own, they were rolled back for ideological reasons.
bluGill
a day ago
Ideological reasons, yes, but the fact remains is the EV market is still standing on its own. Sure, the EV market is not growing anywhere near as fast as other parts of the world, but it is still growing. People talk about their EVs and it's becoming clear to even to people who don't have one that they are useful vehicles.
Every once in a while people ask about cost and discover that for most people charging in your garage is significantly cheaper than anything else and charging on the road is still cheaper than gas and while it does take longer it's not too bad.
And as was pointed out, there is every reason to believe that there'll be a change in administration in the federal level in a few years. And once again, the rules will change. The car manufacturers are going to keep building what they know and have good investments in. But they're going to keep investing in EVs both because in the world they're important players and also because they know the government will change and with it their rules and they don't want to be left behind.
LeFantome
20 hours ago
You basically said this but charging at home literally eliminates fueling time and empty tank anxiety completely.
Get in your car, drive up to a few hundred miles. Dive home. Repeat. Never stop for fuel ever. That is what EV life is like for many people. I think most people.
bluGill
19 hours ago
That's about 95%, but there's still that last 5% of road trips that an EV does need to find a place to stop. Fortunately, there are places to charge an EV all over. Not quite as convenient as a gas station, but more than good enough for most trips.
kube-system
18 hours ago
If you've got a place to charge at home. We need subsidies to encourage chargers in more places outside of garages in surburbs.
If you live in an urban area and want to charge an EV, it can be quite a pain
bluGill
10 hours ago
I don't know about your city but my city there places to charge all over. Many of them are level 2, but if you are in the parking garage all day that doesn't matter.
Though honestly, in urban cities, we don't need to add more chargers, we need to add good public transit.
kube-system
4 hours ago
Where I’m at pretty much all chargers are in parking garages. But my garage doesn’t have one. And the garages that do, are expensive. And even then, it would be a shared space where I'd need to move my car, and I'd have to rely on others moving their car for it to be available.
And I do normally use public transit, so the primary reason I have a car is for out of town trips where I’d need to charge away from home.
I’d love to have an EV but I just can’t make it make sense.
If we incentivized parking structure owners to install chargers, it would be a different situation
jjav
11 hours ago
> That is what EV life is like for many people.
Here is our EV life:
Need to go to San Francisco (~90 min away, no good place to charge there so need to get back too). Can we make it? Mild panic. No, we can't.
Drive to a fast charger place nearby. Spend 45 minutes charging, bored with nothing to do. We were on time but now we're very late. Child is grumpy because we'll miss the start of the event (this is for watching Fleet Week last month). Finally get going, got there late due to time wasted charging, missed a few planes.
Coming home in the evening, battery is at 30% with half hour to go, partner is panicking. Will we make it? Maybe? Do we detour to a fast charger found on the map? Yes! No, maybe we'll be ok. Rather not stop in some dark sketchy place to charge for 30+ minutes. Let's hope for the best and keep going. Got home with ~10% left, stress on high alert.
Maybe some people like the adrelanine rush of this kind of stress on every road trip, but it's not for me.
rusticpenn
11 hours ago
This seems to be a planning issue more than an EV issue...
bluGill
11 hours ago
As someone with a degree in human machine interaction: stop blaming machine problems on the user. Humans should not have to plan like that.
All the gas cars I've ever had, if I did a few gallons of gas, would only take a few minutes. Overall, the cost savings is worth having an EV, but charging time is a major downside. We need to stop blaming people for the downside of the technology.
cogman10
3 hours ago
There's a minimum level of competence expected before operating machines. I blame someone if they run out of gas. I blame someone if they run out of battery energy.
The charge time is a downside, but it's not like (particularly in San Francisco) there isn't an abundance of options that will give you 90+ miles in 5 minutes.
bluGill
2 hours ago
He didn't claim a lack of options to change. He described it being inconvenient.
cogman10
2 hours ago
Yeah, and I personally don't buy what he's putting down. He's 90 minutes away from San Fransisco and doesn't have anywhere he can charge without waiting for 45 minutes? I find that highly suspect. That'd put the trip distance at around 100 miles (assuming 70mph average). Which, unless you are literally driving an old Nissan leaf, you could comfortably traverse with basically all EVs on the market.
But further, in that 100 mile radius, there's EV chargers literally every 10 miles or less on all major roads.
Because the charge curve on basically all EVs starts high at a low state of charge, there's basically no reason he'd have to wait more that 5 or 10 minutes at a stop to continue on his trip. 45 minutes is absurd.
I say this as someone that lives in Idaho and makes 6 hour road trips relatively regularly. Even on my longest "without charger" stretches, the wait is roughly 20 minutes to get enough to get to the next charger.
jgwil2
5 hours ago
No good place to charge in San Francisco?
red-iron-pine
3 hours ago
you're in the bay area and you can't find a fast charger? or a charger at all?
pebcak issue
vinyl7
7 hours ago
That is ideal, but unfortunately nobody can afford homes these days so we're stuck with rarely available car ports in apartment complexes with no charging ports.
chneu
20 hours ago
Dude you're living in fantasy land. The US EV market is not good.
toomuchtodo
20 hours ago
Spot on. China is the largest auto market in the world, and two thirds (~67%) of their sales are new energy vehicles now (battery electric and plug in hybrid). It’s ~6-7% in the US. The race is over.
Chart: A record two-thirds of car sales in China are now electric vehicles - https://www.carbonbrief.org/chart-a-record-two-thirds-of-car... - October 23rd, 2026
50% of their heavy duty trucks are electric already, four years ahead of the government’s 2030 target.
Electric trucks hit 50% of China’s heavy truck sales, diesel demand falls - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50340612 - November 2026
China is going to hit 100% light and heavy vehicle sales by 2030, and then they’re going to export them to the world as fast as they can build and ship them.
honeybadger1
10 hours ago
It's great for Tesla regardless of the overall EV market in the US. Anyone with money in China is willing to pay more for a Tesla because they know its superior. It's quite like their obsession with Apple products.
MrDrMcCoy
4 hours ago
Tesla? Superior? My X button is wearing out from all this doubt.
honeybadger1
an hour ago
In many way Tesla products in China are viewed as superior. Recent reviews funded by the CCP showed their self driving is the only reliable one in China as well as the recent negative publicity from Huawei and their brake failures on their luxury models.($150,000)
ASalazarMX
an hour ago
Even here in Mexico EVs have tariffs that make them as costly as ICEs, just to please Trump. EVs are becoming popular here, but the market is far from mature. I don't think it was ideological, but short-sighted protectionist reasons, though.
jhallenworld
a day ago
Likewise, Musk's Sieg Heil and association with Trump didn't help- instant ~25% drop in sales (60% in Europe). It's like when that Campbell's executive said their soup is "shit for fucking poor people".
paxy
a day ago
So why have EV sales in the US been dropping almost every quarter since 2024, from a peak of ~10% of new sales down to under 6% today? Is this the “mature market” you are referring to?
For comparison, that number is 53% in China and 60-70% in most European countries. In Norway 97% of new sales are EVs.
titzer
a day ago
It all makes sense when you realize that the global fossil fuel industry is going all-in on their hold out market, the USA, with astronomical levels of corruption and propaganda to keep the gas guzzlers guzzlin'.
inthebay
a day ago
Besides the end of the tax credit, EVs are still quite expensive in the US and there's been a jump of used EVs flooding the market (mostly from corporate fleet offloads)
mschuster91
a day ago
> So why have EV sales in the US been dropping almost every quarter since 2024, from a peak of ~10% of new sales down to under 6% today?
Because a lot of Americans lacks financial literacy (i.e. everyone buying a brand new ICE vehicle).
Even before that godforsaken war it made no financial sense at all to buy an ICE vehicle for most purposes. Now with that war and its effects wrecking the fossil fuel markets, it's even worse.
tzs
16 hours ago
> Even before that godforsaken war it made no financial sense at all to buy an ICE vehicle for most purposes.
If you could not charge at home then a high mileage ICE vehicle (before the war) had lower energy costs in a significant fraction of the US.
Even with home charging there were something like 10 states where a Prius beat an EV if you were paying the state average rates for gas and for home electricity.
Massachusetts was the state most favorable to ICEs. In the Boston area a Prius would have lower energy costs in the city as long as gas was under about $4.40/gal.
titzer
a day ago
> These are both signs of a maturing market.
Hmm. 16 million cars sold in the US each year. 1.2 million EVs sold each year. "Maturing" at less than 8% market share is not a good sign.
> Litigation on this is still playing out...these to swing back into force with a change of government
Have you not lived in the US, like ever? It will take anywhere from approximately a decade to never to claw back even a fraction of an progressive legislation or regulation.
> We should expect Tesla sales to fall...when [vague new things come out]
Falling sales is sign of market maturity?
tw04
19 hours ago
>These are both signs of a maturing market. It's a good thing that DCFC operators like Ionna, Walmart, etc. are still charging ahead at a pretty rapid pace, even without federal funding. Ionna especially has been deploying at a crazy speed.
But the market isn't mature. It COULD be the sign of a maturing market, or it COULD be the sign of politicians that take large sums of money from oil companies gaining power and gutting subsidies.
>Again, not true. Some investments like battery manufacturing, sure, but that's not what they were ever good at. GM has a pretty robust line of EVs, and Ford has bet big on their new platform underpinning on their new 'affordable' truck.
Ford has GREATLY reduced their EV plans. How's that EV Explorer coming along? Right, scrapped. The F-150 is scrapped, the maverick-esque platform will likely find a lukewarm response followed by further contractsion. It will be double the price of a slate, and nowhere near as nice as the Rivian.
viraptor
13 hours ago
> These are both signs of a maturing market.
I wonder when will oil companies reach the point of a maturing market... https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/09/fossil-f...
psadauskas
5 hours ago
> > Federal subsidies were eliminated.
> These are both signs of a maturing market.
I sure can't wait for oil extraction and farming to become mature markets, so we can eliminate those subsidies too! /s
burlesona
a day ago
That's just false. I don't think US automakers outside of Tesla have done well with EVs to date, but Ford went back to the drawing board a few years ago and is now near to releasing it's revamped EV platform that they believe will be actually competitive: https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/universal-electric-ve...
viraptor
a day ago
> Comparing it to the US isn’t really meaningful considering the EV market here is on life support.
I think that's the thing being pointed out...
doug_durham
a day ago
Charging infrastructure is blossoming. It is funded by private companies. Roadtripping in an EV is pretty seamless now. I'm driving to Death Valley in a couple of weeks. Plenty of charging options along the way.
adjejmxbdjdn
a day ago
Because funding for that network was provided for the several years before these changes were made.
They didn’t put money to rip out existing infrastructure and funding (let’s not give them ideas). It’s future EV charging growth and maintenance that will be affected, and its impact will be felt years from now.
dalyons
19 hours ago
> 2024 is probably going to be the peak of the US EV market
peak ever? no way. you can only think that if you havent been paying attention at all as to whats going on in the rest of the world. The EV transition is assured, the only variable is how long it takes a market to realize. The US can only resist gravity for so long.
frakkingcylons
a day ago
Ford is launching an EV pickup for like $30k to compete with the Slate pickup. Doesn't seem like Ford is giving up.
Loughla
a day ago
Yeah Ford killed the f150 lightning because it appealed to no one. Trades people didn't want to fuck with charging their vehicle. Normal people didn't want to pay 100k for a truck.
Their new one is very interesting. I wanted an electric truck when I bought my most recent one but just couldn't afford it. If it's 30k for the base, figure 40k with bells and whistles. That makes it super attainable with a decent trade.
MrDrMcCoy
4 hours ago
My interest in the Ford truck entirely depends on how thoroughly I can neuter its ability to talk to any network. Slate might be the clear winner there (and only "might" because of that insane kill-switch law).
yumraj
19 hours ago
Got curious, searched, saw this on the Fathom page: “ Dealer sets selling price”, closed the page.
We’re going to see a repeat of Maverick with inflated prices which will kill the demand.
mlmonkey
a day ago
Given the high gas prices in the US, one would think the govt would be doubling down on EVs...
ssl-3
a day ago
When the price of fuel goes up, American oil companies make more money.
We produce a lot of oil in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_extra...
platevoltage
a day ago
That same government turned EVs into a cultural issue, so I doubt that would happen.
adjejmxbdjdn
a day ago
The government is also trying to sell regular Americans paying a handful of oil companies a lot more money for gas, and the subsequent increase in profits for those oil companies, as a huge win for America.
They’ve been boasting about American oil companies having higher profits.
platevoltage
20 hours ago
> They’ve been boasting about American oil companies having higher profits.
It's wild to see the cultists cheer for this right now while they're plunging themselves further into debt.
dyauspitr
a day ago
The government is doubling down on helping their big oil buddies/donors.
dyauspitr
a day ago
Until this troglodyte administration is done. EVs are the future, the US will have to make the change at some point.
JumpCrisscross
a day ago
If Trump hadn’t petulantly killed the EV subside, hundreds of thousands of additional EVs would be on American roads today. That’s hundreds of thousands of voters who wouldn’t be reacting to gas prices.
Our lucky streak as America—Russia blowing itself up, China going wolf warrior right when they needed to build alliances—may continue in our wannabe fascist being so fucking stupid.
adjejmxbdjdn
a day ago
Why do you think China is not building alliances?
JumpCrisscross
21 hours ago
They are. But the wolf-warrior crap cost them a critical decade.
BLKNSLVR
21 hours ago
Conspiracy warning. Let's say "thought experiment" instead.
I wonder whether Trump has long-recognised the decline of the US, and is planning for his legacy to be setting up his family well enough to be able to move to wherever else in the world opportunity presents itself (or where oligarchies would appreciate their contributions - after all, "there's always another oligarchy"). Essentially both shorting the US and forcing the downfall to occur (and making the progress of its occurrence faster).
I'm interested to see the Trump family's reactions to the inevitable disenfrachisement that the real, long-term outcomes of this will manifest.
mschuster91
a day ago
> Our lucky streak as America—Russia blowing itself up, China going wolf warrior right when they needed to build alliances—may continue in our wannabe fascist being so fucking stupid.
You are decidedly not on a lucky streak.
Your Dear Leader just threw the US into yet another incompetently waged war on the other side of the world, he tore apart bridges with virtually all allies the US had, including Canada of all places, his reckless usage of his powers to influence corporate decisions (i.e. the ICC sanctions and DoD/Musk throttling Starlink/Starshield for Ukraine) made everyone realize they need their own alternatives not beholden to the US for literally anything, the AI bubble growing uncontrollably while the QE money injections never got taken out of the system is setting you up for a financial disaster that will make 2007 look tame...
pstuart
21 hours ago
Many of us did not want this -- it was a failure of democracy: not enough people showed up to vote and many who voted were poorly informed.
mschuster91
9 hours ago
> Many of us did not want this
Agreed, but my point still stands - they are the ones who sent America off to its probably most consequential bad luck streak in centuries.
> it was a failure of democracy: not enough people showed up to vote and many who voted were poorly informed.
Oh hell no. They chose to fall for the anti-trans and anti-immigrant rhetoric. They voted for Trump because Trump promised to make "the others" suffer. The entire operating principle of the GOP and especially its Evangelical wing has been "the suffering is the point" for decades.
pstuart
an hour ago
I get the "cruelty was the point" angle -- it's absolutely part of that equation. But a lot of those voters were voting out of anger and feeling abandoned and unserved by the government. Ignoring the aforementioned ugly parts -- Trump made a play at populism (albeit all lies) to an electorate hungry for change.
Bear in mind that Harris was playing the "the economy is fine!" angle, which it technically was as far as GDP and the stock markets. But that ignored the fact that for millions it was not so great.
My point about "not enough people showed up to vote" as aimed at the youth vote who is apathetic about such things, and more importantly, a lot of crucial voters who were angry about the situation in Gaza. The irony on that last point is that Harris was absolutely the lesser of two evils in that regard.
I think a majority of voters vote based on their emotions, how their parents voted, or a specific manner of "what's in it for me". I have tempered faith in the electorate as a whole.
throw0101c
21 hours ago
> Comparing it to the US isn’t really meaningful considering the EV market here is on life support.
A couple more Middle East wars from Republicans and the resulting gas prices will help push electrification forward. semi-/s