anovikov
9 hours ago
What do you think might be wrong about the economy? If you don't read social media which is always negative (i do not). Every single metric i could think of, is fantastic, from employment to stock market to GDP growth to consumption of everything to private net worth. Inflation is high-ish sure, but this is what normally happens in a boom.
sky2224
9 hours ago
If you're among the top 10% in the US, you're likely doing fine at the moment, but everyone else is struggling. On paper things may seem okay for the government and large companies reaping the benefits of this AI boom, but the current trajectory is not sustainable. Things will get ugly for everyone if we do not course correct on a number of issues like tariffs, Iran war, and more.
Gas prices are at an all time high, housing has never been less affordable, Intel stock just plunged a record 29% in its history, the US is now $40 trillion in debt... this is all just off the top of my head right now.
anovikov
8 hours ago
Inflation adjusted gas prices are pretty much average over last 25 years or so (and lower than they ever been in 2005-2014 outside of about 9 months' recession).
Inflation adjusted house prices are lower than 25 year average, and about as low as during early covid bottom. And housing affordability is almost best in history, with a few short stretches in late 1990s being better.
US debt load is by far lowest in history (or at least ever since reliable tracking appeared around 1963), for every dollar in debt Americans hold 8 dollars in assets. If you force people to pay all of their debt, at once (which is impossible), it won't cause a domino effect. Government debt? US is not a socialist country. Government can go to hell. And, all branches of government together are only slightly in red vs assets they hold. And debt to GDP is stabe in the last 5 years, last was the covid jump, which by now is about half undone.
Also, and here is a major thing that never existed before, consumption is now to a large degree disconnected from employment. Almost half of consumption is funded by capital, not labor. So potential for vicious cycle where people lose jobs, consume less, companies lose revenue, lay off people, and more people lose jobs, rinse and repeat, is now weaker than ever before - it is not impossible, but less likely. I think we underappreciate how valuable for economy this is. Domination of employment-derived consumption in the past has been a persistent source of instability.
So social negativity we observe is all just vibes, magnified by social media to stir the crowd. There is no money to make by making people feel happy - they click much harder if they are angry or frightened.
Sure there is a problem about a segment of population feeling displaced/irrelevant, but this is mostly a public messaging, and to a smaller extent, law enforcement problem.
Since serious crime is also at all-times low, i doubt it can escalate into something serious.
lazide
2 hours ago
One key number you don’t mention - inflation adjusted wages, especially for the lower half of the population.
If you hold a lot of assets or are in the upper quartile of wages, then all of this is good.
If you don’t, then you’re fucked. That is their point.
anovikov
2 hours ago
That's not the case really. People feel fucked because social media and politicians say them so to keep them engaged. In fact, they are getting slightly better off. At the median. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q#
anovikov
an hour ago
But why aren't they improving their lot A LOT, in line with the general economy? Well i am a coder and probably so are you. Why do you think job market, chances to get hired, and earning potential sucks for coders now? Who is to blame? Trump, Elon Musk, "late stage capitalism"? Who can we possibly protest against and what to demand? Nothing. It's just objective technological change, force of progress.
gigatexal
8 hours ago
This. Consumption is up, savings rates are down. Core inputs into the economy are too expensive like meat and gas.
It’s only rosy in the aggregate and then maybe for areas overlooked and for the wealthy.
It can’t stay like this forever. Something will have to give. The rest of the working class folks and lower will not put up with being lied to all day long, well maybe if they voted Trump it won’t matter. Nvm nothing to see here. No minds ever change.
anovikov
7 hours ago
Savings rate is a tough thing to argue about because assets are up. People aren't motivated to save. They feel rich as it is.
gigatexal
6 hours ago
Wages aren’t rising, jobs are harder to get it goes on and on.
anovikov
5 hours ago
Perhaps because wages and jobs are becoming less relevant to overall success of economy and the society.
jryan49
3 hours ago
The success of our economy is increasing becoming disconnected from the success of the average American.
anovikov
3 hours ago
Yes that is a fair assessment. What are the downsides of it? More political idiocy, sure, that is a real one, as long as an average American can vote. Any other ones?
It doesn't mean some freemasons are grabbing all cash, or oligarchs. Most of the new wealth goes to "normal" rich and upper middle class. All of the top 10% are raking in big.
markus_zhang
3 hours ago
I don’t know about metrics, but everything is way more expensive in my city comparing to pre-Covid time. I’m not talking about CPI level inflation but way more than that, which is definitely not normal.
And that boom? Well it’s so hard to find jobs across the board, not just IT, but including trades people too.
knottn
3 hours ago
Bonds. If you don’t think bond prices have any relation to the economy you don’t understand basic economics. Gas prices. If you don’t think a hike in oil is a leading indicator, you don’t understand economics. Debt. If you don’t see the fiscal health of the government, including its debt level as part of the economy then you probably don’t understand macro. The economy has not been well for years. Arguably a decade of zero out interest rates that exploded into sustained inflation that continues intentionally to this day.