There is no doubt that companies need fewer SWE to meet their business objectives now. SWE should not run away from this fact.

This does not mean SWE careers are doomed. It simply means its going to be different. AI enables more startups and in turn hires more SWEs. I expect more and more SWE in big tech will transition to startups and the number of SWEs will continue to grow as the number of startups explode.

currently AI is replacing specific tasks, not entire roles. a SWE does some coding, some reviewing, some architecture, and lots of communicating with leadership. So far AI is good (not great) at coding but not great at the other stuff.