pinevale
4 hours ago
Yeah, wealth has legs, and we increasingly have this wealth meta-economy where different states are good at producing wealthy people (CA, NY) and different states are good at giving them a hospitable place to live. Sources and sinks.
This is probably good in some sense - you can argue that it's not healthy for states like CA to "own" so much of GDP end-to-end - but I wonder where this leads us in a couple of decades. Does it continue to be like this, or does it mean that more tech hubs pop up elsewhere because in the long haul, people probably prefer to work and invest close to home?
A big problem is that some of these places - e.g., Wyoming - don't have the higher-ed infrastructure that would foster new startups and high-tech research. On the flip side, California is now importing most of its entrepreneurs anyway.
garciasn
4 hours ago
They're not 'hospitable,' they're 'advantageous' due to being lower tax rates. If anything, lower tax rates make places less 'hospitable' in the long run.
rayiner
4 hours ago
That’s not true. For example, Washington State has no corporate tax: https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/state-corporate-inc.... But companies aren’t exactly flocking there. Florida meanwhile is seeing a huge boom, but its corporate taxes are around the middle of the pack. California has always had pretty high marginal tax rates, even back in the 1970s when it was a solid red state. It used that money to do things like make big investments in higher education.
Being hospitable is more about whether the state makes it a pain in the ass to do business.
cucumber3732842
4 hours ago
>But companies aren’t exactly flocking there.
Taxes are the least worst part of doing business. It's all the other subjectively defined and capriciously enforced regulatory BS that drives business away. You can't run a business let alone get financing to create one when a huge chunk of your costs are a question mark.
rayiner
3 hours ago
Slow permitting is the other thing.
bluGill
4 hours ago
Not always. Low tax can allow enough economic activity as to bring in more income than higher taxes. This is most obvious when you take a tax rate of 90% and reduce it, and there is big debate on where it breaks down when rates are already lower.
pyrale
4 hours ago
Ultimately, not every place can have low taxes and a higher-than-average density of rich people. This model requires externalities.
labcomputer
4 hours ago
A state can justify and sustain higher taxes on the wealthy by offering government services which indirectly benefit the wealthy (the externalities you mention). But it doesn’t follow that an arbitrarily poorly-ran government can sustain arbitrarily high taxes on the wealthy.
There’s some manifold of Pareto-optimal solutions to the problem of taxes and services.
California, for example, spends a lot of money to get not-great public schools, and has housing costs that are out of control. So if you’re importing new hires from other states, and pay them a lot to live here, and personally pay high taxes on top of that… that doesn’t seem like a Pareto-optimal point.
At some point, the wealthy will decide to move someplace that looks more Pareto-optimal. Better externalities, lower taxes, or both.
rickydroll
4 hours ago
I recognize that billionaire talking point. It's the argument behind the Laffer curve.
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/what-a-new-laffer-c...
FTA: For years, policymakers and economists have debated the shape and peak of the Laffer curve, a theoretical model suggesting that if top tax rates increase beyond a certain point—called the revenue-maximizing rate—they will yield negative marginal revenue.
A new paper from economists at the Joint Committee on Taxation finds that the Laffer curve is flatter than previous theories have suggested, meaning the revenue-maximizing “rate” might be a broad range rather than a single point.
Lawmakers looking to raise taxes might find it difficult to raise substantial revenue from top rate increases; however, broadening the base, examining untaxed sectors, and reducing the tax gap represent promising pathways to closing the gap between revenue and spending.
---
I'm glad they highlighted that instead of increasing the tax rate, broaden the tax base. For example, if they treated borrow-spend-die as income. We could keep a lower tax rate. The same argument could be made for eliminating the estate tax. Treat inheritances as income for tax purposes.
labcomputer
4 hours ago
The type of people who move from CA to WY for the tax benefits are the type of people who pay more taxes than they use in government services (even with very low tax rates). That means WY can offer more government services to the rest of its residents, making it more hospitable.
It is a fiscal detriment to CA and NY though.
bryanlarsen
4 hours ago
> who pay more taxes than they use in government services (even with very low tax rates)
They rely massively on government services. They depend on an educated workforce. They depend on law and order to prevent their workplaces from bandits. They depend on massive navies that allow goods to be shipped across the world without concern. They depend on courts to enforce contracts so that they can build their business on contracts rather than having to establish personal trust with everybody they do business with. They depend on a stable currency. They depend on a regulated finance market. They depend on a massive pacified customer base.
I've only scratched the surface, there's lots more.
labcomputer
4 hours ago
I thought it was obvious that I speaking about marginal use of government services.
When a billionaire moves to Wyoming, the marginal tax revenue is far greater than the marginal cost of police services, for example.
kraken_cult
4 hours ago
>The type of people who move from CA to WY for the tax benefits are the type of people who pay more taxes than they use in government services (even with very low tax rates).
Ah yes, the government services the people will need after these locusts move in and price generations of locals out of their homes.
WalterBright
4 hours ago
> lower tax rates make places less 'hospitable' in the long run
When Washington was a low tax state, it spawned Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, Costco, Nordstrom, T Mobile, Expedia, etc.
rayiner
4 hours ago
Those states will eventually either kill the golden goose or make themselves unattractive for the next big industry. California for most of the 20th century was a place where the government was well managed and efficient, wasn’t afraid to make big investments in infrastructure and education, and made it easy to build stuff without too much hassle. Texas and Florida kind of fit that niche today, but both are a shadow of what California used to be.
pupppet
3 hours ago
>This is probably good in some sense - you can argue that it's not healthy for states like CA to "own" so much of GDP end-to-end
So a state invests in educating its residents, only for other states to reap the economic benefits?
Balgair
4 hours ago
> e.g., Wyoming
Wyoming is an interesting case with Higher Ed. It's actually the legislature that runs UW. There isn't a regent board or some such thing. Hence, with many other priorities, the Cowboys don't get that much time in the minds of their bosses.
It's one of the many many wrinkles that come along with the many college football issues these days. Any formation of a players union or draft or much of any real professionalization of the sport has to go through so many different governance formations (regents, governors, the Catholic Church, etc). As such, the many issues with college ball are likely to continue for a long time and fester.
marssaxman
2 hours ago
> does it mean that more tech hubs pop up elsewhere because in the long haul, people probably prefer to work and invest close to home?
That's why Seattle ended up with a software industry presence, isn't it?
mahboi
3 hours ago
It doesn't have to be this way, and it wasn't at some points in the past for different states. Seems like the sources keep forgetting what made them both sources and sinks.
nikanj
4 hours ago
Personally I'd much rather live in the places where wealth is created, instead of the resorts where wealthy people retire to enjoy a life of leisure
bluegatty
4 hours ago
") and different states are good at giving them a hospitable place to live"
Every state offers wealthy people a good place to live - the suggestion that somehow this is a trade off is very wrong.
This has a lot to do with taxes.
pj_mukh
4 hours ago
Personally I’d be happy to pay the higher CA taxes if the state was more hospitable and the government was performant.
But it’s not, and that doesn’t feel worth it.
bluegatty
3 hours ago
Absolutely nobody is moving to Florida or any other state frankly because of how effective they perceive the governance.
Vermont has effective governance. Probably so does Mass. That's not why people go there.
pj_mukh
3 hours ago
I didn't say anything about Florida, because that is "no" government. But I've definitely considered Mass. People forget though that when capital takes flight, international borders are of no concern. Singapore and London are on the docket.
(Before anyone gets on my case, I've lived in Both CA and London, and at least the City government is 10x more effective than any municipality in CA)
jubilee33
4 hours ago
California imports it's current entrepreneurs because it chased the previous generations of them away. I was a fourth generation Californian, was...
I know one literally one person in my highschool graduating class who stayed behind. Sure the older generation are still left for the most part, still not admitting they did anything to cause the situation, but the young and ambitious have all left.
Think about that the fact that the entire population of a place has basically been replaced in under a generation, and with people who are chasing dollars and clout not people who are building communities. (And no this isn't about immigrants, Cali was always full of people from everywhere, it's about the personality that it attracts now.)
We all left and built other communities and business elsewhere because the place quite clearly told us we were not wanted there.
I'm not sure why people keep repeating fabricated GDP like it's some measure of success, especially when its completly measured on non-tangible products like the California economy.
Cali compared to Cali 40/50/100 years ago is wasteland and it pisses me off every day.