Europe needs more batteries, cross border interconnectors, transmission, etc, as they have hundreds of hours per year with negative electricity prices. Once battery deployment rate catches up, and renewables keeps up or goes faster, energy prices should go back down as the last 30% of fossil gas is pushed out of the energy mix.
4-hour battery storage is cheaper to install than gas turbines all across globe - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50007519 - October 2026
Germany produces three times more solar power than Australia so far this year - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49891839 - September 2026
Rise of negatively priced hours points to reshaping of Europe's power markets - https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news... - August 24th, 2026
Largest battery storage in Germany set for partial commissioning - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49104584 - July 2026
Germany’s battery opportunity - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/germanys-battery-op... - May 13th, 2026
- Germany hosts around a quarter of the EU’s total large-scale battery capacity, with over 2.5 GW operational by the end of 2025 – more than double the capacity of just two years earlier. A robust project pipeline and high social acceptance of the technology among German municipalities point to continued growth, with over 10 GW expected capacity, but policy barriers could hold it back.
- If Germany’s expected new large-scale battery projects had been operational in 2025, they could have avoided approximately one-third of wind and solar curtailment, cutting redispatch costs and gas purchases by about €0.8 billion. This exceeds the required investment in batteries.
- Germany’s residential battery market is Europe’s largest and shows prospects for continued growth – roughly one in six homeowners already has a battery installed, and 30% are considering purchasing one within the next five years. Smart charging of these batteries could relieve bottlenecks in the distribution grid and avoid significant system costs.
Europe Saw Record Surge in Negative Power Prices in 2025 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46502094 - January 2026
- Surging renewable output overwhelmed Europe’s power grid in 2025, driving electricity prices below zero more often than ever before.
- Negative power prices are underscoring how rapid growth in renewable generation is colliding with stagnant demand and persistent grid constraints in Europe. Germany logged 573 hours of negative prices in 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year. And Spain, which experienced negative prices for the first time in 2024, has since seen them double year-on-year.
- When strong winds or abundant sunshine flood the system with renewable power, demand is often insufficient to absorb the surplus, pushing electricity prices into negative territory. This pattern is set to continue in 2026, according to BloombergNEF, as renewable capacity continues to expand faster than grids, storage and consumption.
> China has been working on EVs for like 15 years, we still have German manufacturers begging for exemptions on ICE phaseouts right now. At some point we just need to be honest and say that the Great (EV) Leap Forward won't happen and it will take like 10 years to get there.
EV sales are growing 20% per year globally, and are already a majority of sales in China, the world's largest market. How fast we get to further tipping points is a function of how long oil supply chains remain impaired. We will get there eventually. Peak combustion vehicle sales was in 2017. As of this comment, China can manufacture ~50M EVs/year (global annual light vehicle TAM is ~90M units/year) and is exporting ~12M EVs/year. BYD plans to hire 40k auto workers in Europe over the next several years.
Maybe European legacy automakers finds the will to build EVs, maybe not. It's immaterial at this point. BYD can buy the factories and employ the workers if they lack the will. The EVs will be built and sold at scale.
BYD Targets About 40,000 European Employees by 2030 - https://www.briefs.co/news/byd-targets-about-40-000-european... - October 12th, 2026
- BYD plans to lift its European headcount to "absolutely over 40,000 in 2030," up from just over 10,000 soon.
- Its first European plant, in Hungary, is aiming to start mass production in the fourth quarter, with France and Spain shortlisted for additional sites.
Global sales of combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 - https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/global-sales-of-com... - May 21st, 2026
Our World In Data: Number of new electric cars sold 2010 to 2025 - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales?tab=li...