creatonez
6 hours ago
Note that the original Paris 1.5°C target referred to keeping under 1.5°C for the entire period from 2015 to 2100, requiring sustained action between 2020 and 2030 to have any hope of setting that trajectory. We are so, so far away from that goal. The maximum by 2100 is going to be at least 2.2°C for sure, but 2.5°C and beyond are more likely.
magicalhippo
5 hours ago
Nah, 1.5C was a political goal. The one where you aim for 1.5C and pat yourself on the back if it ends up below 4C.
That's why they lowered it to 1.5C from the 2.0C they initially talked so much about, otherwise they'd be happy if it ended up below 6C. And that would be really bad.
creatonez
5 hours ago
Indeed, I was just giving some perspective on the number (and how it was a 2100 target and not a 2030 target), which is thought of as the "quite bad but the overall order of civilization keeps going" scenario