ivraatiems
a day ago
This is one of the most artfully positioned, full-throated, thoughtful, and capable takedowns of the AI hype (not necessarily LLMs as tools) I've read. It doesn't try to speak doom to AI companies, it doesn't suggest the tools are worthless at things they're good at. Instead, it disassembles the assumptions underlying ideas about frontier AI labs' promises (of both utopia and doom) by explaining in simple terms what the real accomplishment they've made is:
They are thieves who turned their stolen goods into a pretty neat invention.
They are not prophets of the end times or messianic figures bringing in a new age of human relaxation or the biggest trillionaires since Tim Cook and Elon Musk. They are people with one good tool that they think can and should be used to do everything. They won't accept that their tool is just useful, or helpful. They want it to be _more important than the humans and human work it was based on_, and nothing less will do. They want to replace effort and thought with simulacra of both and be applauded for it.
Lest this go down as an anti-AI post: I use AI tools. I use LLMs every day. They are useful... but they can't do on their own what we did not demonstrate how to do first, because they are tools.
I could be wrong, but I don't know that I see this changing.
visarga
21 hours ago
> but they can't do on their own what we did not demonstrate how to do first, because they are tools.
Funny thing to say here, where an agent swarm (1M hours agent time) just did something no human did. If someone else solved NS blowup before OpenAI we would have heard their claims already. And we did hear partial claims, "they rushed in the same direction" kind of claims, not "they copied my fully developed idea". I think this is Move 37 moment for math, when we realize we might not be the top anymore.
ivraatiems
21 hours ago
Did you read the article? It goes into a lot of detail about how oversold the Navier-Stokes discovery is.
visarga
14 hours ago
Yes, I realize the NS singularity does not have practical usage yet, but it was a Millennium Prize problem. It's funny how Vi discarded it
starkshift
a day ago
That is very much the case at the current iteration of AI, but that should change with the introduction of world-mapping, computer vision, and world interacting AI. If machines are built out so that they are constructing accurate world-maps of how the physical world works and how to operate in it, then AI will begin to be able to out-invent human tool concepts and push past the horizon of what humans have so far been able to dream
ben_w
16 hours ago
I think that's the wrong angle with machine learning.
The biggest limits on machine learning are how many examples it takes to get good at something. Right now, this is at a literally evolutionary pace: our bodies/genomes have barely adapted to the invention of controlled fire, thousands of generations ago, yet if it took thousands of examples for our brains to learn then we'd sill be unable to control fire.
Computers only partially make up for being slow in the "by number of examples needed" sense by being fast in the "wall clock" sense: If a biological brain took as many examples to learn a thing as machine learning takes, the creature would starve before figuring out how to eat; yet transistors operate faster than synapses by the same magnitude to which a jogger outpaces continental drift.
The "only partially" is why, despite around a trillion miles of driving experience across the fleet, you still can't buy a Tesla without a steering wheel (and even the Cybercab that's supposed to be without a steering wheel is often photographed with one).
ivraatiems
a day ago
Why? They're still only going to be trained on human input or input generated by them as derivatives of human input.
Modality change might expand their usefulness, but I don't think it changes the basic parameters of their operation.
Learning to swim might let you see a coral reef, but it won't turn you into one.
visarga
21 hours ago
> or input generated by them as derivatives of human input
Trained mostly on their own data, not ours. The mix changed, from 10% to 90% synthetic data. RL training is now the largest part of the process. The AI work is searching, and I don't think we can claim this process to be credited to us anymore. The origin point is, but not the journey.
Tarq0n
18 hours ago
This is a very basic misunderstanding of machine learning. The goal is always to learn a representation that generalizes beyond the training set without overfitting. If you succeed in generalizing, you can do more than produce derivative work.
starkshift
a day ago
That’s the thing. AI won’t be limited to being trained on only human input, why would it? Humans are trained by interacting with their environment plus a genetic world-mapping initial seed. There is no reason AI will not be the same, just at a much more extreme level
cbilson
a day ago
Aren’t humans also mostly trained on human input?
starkshift
21 hours ago
It depends on the knowledge domain. I would argue that much of human knowledge is individual to the person acquired by interacting with their environment
asplake
20 hours ago
And much of it inaccessible to others, let alone to AI