dofm
2 days ago
Amazing to me that something as wild as this is now basically a trope.
I don't mean this negatively; open weights AI and open source tooling is about the only thing that gives me hope.
The fact that there are dozens of these things hints at the beginning of the dull normalisation of openly available, non-monopoly AI tools, which is what is needed if we are all to survive.
tommica
2 days ago
Hardware is becoming the choke-point. If that gets resolved, things will start to change even faster
api
2 days ago
The obvious thing that I can coming see is high bandwidth flash, which as far as I know is under active development by multiple companies.
From what I've read one architecture is basically RAID0 at the flash chip/chiplet or PCB level, combining many fast flash chips into one wide channel and then turning that into a wide fast streaming storage system. Fast as in competitive with DRAM, at least for streaming a lot of data, which is what most AI inference wants.
Flash, even very fast flash, is much cheaper than DRAM per GB.
I'd like a specialized local inference node consisting of 2TB high bandwidth flash, 16-32GB of DRAM (for attention and other state), and a big TPU. That could run frontier size models in something the size of a large mini PC like an Intel Nuc. The lower cost of flash would probably move most of the cost to the processor(s).
I wonder how feasible it would be to DIY a board layout for basically RAID0 flash that's pretty good? A bunch of flash chips in parallel. Use something like a cheap fast ARM or RISC-V chip as the flash controller and have it do striping and present itself as an abstract drive over a thunderbolt or PCIe interface.
SlavikCA
2 days ago
Currently, the fastest way to connect flash is via PCIe 5.0 x4. Right?
That's ~16 GB/s. Even if you do RAID0 of 4 such drives, that would get you 64GB/s. That's not a lot. Compare that to 1792 GB/s for RTX 5090: it's 100x faster than NVMe flash.
adrian_b
2 days ago
If you have a 16-lane PCIe 5.0 card with 4 M.2 slots on it you get 64 GB/s from the 4 SSDs installed on it, the same as the speed of transferring data to a discrete GPU.
Desktop CPUs support only one such slot (normally used for the GPU), together with another PCIe 5.0 M.2 and one independent PCIe 4.0 M.2. That sums to 88 GB/s for a consumer motherboard. A beefy CPU like an AMD 9950X should be sufficient for AI inference limited by the SSD throughput, even without a discrete GPU.
On a server MB, you may have e.g. 6 16-lane PCIe 5.0 slots, so you could use one slot for a discrete GPU and 5 slots for SSDs, for 320 GB/s throughput. At this point the price would be quite high even with the smallest available PCIe 5.0 SSDs, but it would still be low in comparison with the price of datacenter GPUs or of an equivalent amount of DRAM.
api
2 days ago
That's why I think you'd have to do something board-level at least, not just plugging existing modules or SSDs together. You'd have to stuff flash chips on a novel board with a novel controller architecture.
The work I've seen at places like Samsung and Intel is chip level.
Why hasn't this been done already? No market until recently. Existing flash is fast enough for SSD use cases, and making it fast enough to compete with DRAM makes it more expensive. Meanwhile it's not a true DRAM replacement because it's slow to write, slower than DRAM for true random access, and can wear out with many write cycles. It only makes sense for applications that are read-mostly, streaming, and require huge data, and that was a small market until AI.
davrosthedalek
2 days ago
Correct, but that's comparable to streaming from CPU memory to GPU memory, which seems to work OK for MOE models. Then again, if model sizes are so large that you need SSDs, maybe not so much.
regularfry
2 days ago
I can't justify this at all, but it feels like there's headroom in the currently-available hardware, which the current shortage will increasingly force us to optimise into. Then when the choke-point relaxes the upper bound of what's achievable will be even higher than it would have been.
dofm
2 days ago
I don't think there's much room that isn't being exploited by this SSD expert streaming stuff.
There may well be headroom within the software/architecture of LLMs but once you get down to streaming tokens, it is kind of running into the physics?
d3Xt3r
2 days ago
There's plenty of optimisations still possible if you optimise for specific GPU families. Eg see Hipfire[1] and q38rocm/HaloPFX[2], they're so much more faster than llama.cpp for consumer AMD GPUs.
dofm
2 days ago
OK, yes, this I do agree with but I was mostly factoring these in (because I did that research a couple of weeks ago while speccing out a hypothetical R9700 box)
hgoel
2 days ago
One of the architectural changes expected in the next series of Qwen models appears to be well suited to SSD streaming.
But also, there probably still is a lot of room for tuning and better utilizing the streaming capability, e.g. better speculative streaming to have the activated experts loaded in RAM by the time they're needed.
GeekyBear
2 days ago
There is a new standard for High Bandwidth Flash that is under development.
> Asianometry: High Bandwidth Flash Is Coming
7speter
2 days ago
The problem is will the big ai companies siphon it all up before consumers even get a chance?
tourmalinetaco
2 days ago
Same as big data centers siphoned up all the SSDs before their prices became reasonable for consumers, same with HDDs, or RAM every generation. They’ll be high before they’ll be reasonable, and then they’ll be cheap once their next generation comes along.
dofm
2 days ago
Did data centre SSD rollout really happen significantly before consumer SSD rollout?
I'd always assumed that the first generation of SSDs were really tested on consumers.
tourmalinetaco
2 days ago
Yeah, started in the late 70s (1978) with the StorageTek STC 4305, which was 45MB in a large cabinet, cost $400,000, and was from what I can find the first SSD. From there up until the 2000s they served as expensive but crucial networking infrastructure, when in the early-mid 2000s the industry moved from RAM to NAND, and the price-per-GB of NAND became reasonable enough to enter the consumer space as a proper form of storage drive, and not just for USB sticks or memory cards.
For comparison, here is the rough trajectory of price:
1978: $9.1 million/GB
1985: $920,000/GB
1990: $50,000/GB
1995: $1,000/GB [0]
2005: $100/GB
2006 is when the first commercial SSDs hit market in laptops, and by 2010 they were ~$3/GB, which brought them to wide adoption.
[0]: 2000 was a stagnant year, prices stayed the same from my research between ‘95 and the new millennium before dropping in 2005.
zardo
2 days ago
Not all of it, but certainly enough to keep the price high.
conorcleary
2 days ago
Dibs on the name 'DeltaAccel'