killingtime74
7 hours ago
I was just checking which were the top guesses on polymarket before the announcement and this winner was not even a choice on there. At least we know there's no insider trading at the Nobel foundation.
rags2riches
6 hours ago
> In accordance with Nobel's will, the prize is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, a five-member committee appointed by the Parliament of Norway unlike all the other awards chosen by the Swedish Nobel Committee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize
There's been accusations of leaks in connection to bets with the Nobel Price in Literature.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize_in_Literature_cont...
haunter
6 hours ago
Machado’s odds suddenly surged to almost 80% 12 hours before the announcement
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1o383a1/oc...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/nobel-peace-pr...
ano-ther
5 hours ago
Wasn’t that because their CMS had URLs that were easy to guess?
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1o51k61/upd...
idiotsecant
2 hours ago
It makes me wonder- how many people are making a living guessing 'secrets' like this on polymarket? Not with bribes and leaks, but just poor infosec. Seems like interesting work, and probably lucrative with the right skillset.
Melatonic
an hour ago
Good point. You could hack someone and just lurk and never do anything directly malicious that would make them notice your presence
thisisnotmyname
42 minutes ago
There was an interesting interview on the OddLots podcast recently with people who are doing this. They were remarkably sophisticated.
mistrial9
36 minutes ago
gambling - this is news?
m463
4 hours ago
The prize in economics is even more different, "in memory of alfred nobel"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...
Sharlin
an hour ago
Yes, it doesn’t really have anything to do with the actual Nobels but the name.
munksbeer
3 hours ago
I wonder...
If I had inside information, and didn't want to make it obvious, I'd just take the opposite side of any bet for candidates I knew wouldn't win.
ralphington
3 hours ago
Sorry, but your reasoning is incomplete. They could have bet millions on the negative result for each of the candidates that were listed. You aren't forced to bet on a winner, you can instead bet on everybody to lose.