Don't Be Fooled by this Summer of AI Hype

38 pointsposted 10 hours ago
by jacquesm

21 Comments

nater5000

9 hours ago

If you're interested in an anti-AI article which isn't just the same trite takes you've already read a million times before, just move along. Go read a HN thread about any recent AI news and you'll get the same takes.

quicklywilliam

9 hours ago

Lots of anti-AI takes seem to fall prey to the moralistic fallacy (ie because something shouldn’t be, thinking it isn’t). I’m very skeptical of the claims AI companies make, their motives, and whether their impact will be anything positive. But I am pretty tired of takes like this that are so reflexively skeptical of anything AI that they carelessly dismiss claims about the dangers and real impacts of AI that are happening.

(And to be clear: I’m not talking about being skeptical of fantastic claims about things that have not happened- ie an AI takeover, runaway super-intelligence, etc.)

autoexec

8 hours ago

What kind of real evidence about the dangers of AI that are happening do you have that didn't come from an AI company, wasn't about some internal test that conveniently can't be replicated or independently verified, where nobody disabled guardrails that would be in place for typical users, or where they didn't instruct the AI to roleplay as someone doing something evil? What danger are we seeing right now in the real world that people aren't taking seriously?

quicklywilliam

8 hours ago

The article is very dismissive of recent mathematical proofs. It mixes together ethical problems (plagiarism, "strip mining" proofs) with capability problems (proofs not being novel, overstating capabilities). Again, it's fair to be skeptical of what the companies themselves are saying (and why). But from what I've read, many mathematicians are taking AI quite seriously. I've recently read several thoughtful essays from credible folks who are calling for dramatic changes to the field in response. For example: https://www.daniellitt.com/blog/2026/9/13/a-beginning-for-ma...

The article is also dismissive of the Hugging Face incident and other hacking incidents. This one is trickier, because we are more reliant on what the companies have released to piece together what happened. The METR report is probably the closest thing we have right now. Here again, I think the issue is that a lot of coverage blends the ethical issues (holding AI companies responsible for what their bots do) with capability issues (whether AI is or will be capable of developing novel and dangerous attacks).

scarmig

8 hours ago

That's not what happened, in any of the many incidents. But even if it were, if you can make AI do dangerous things by telling it to roleplay doing dangerous things, then that... Makes the AI dangerous.

autoexec

7 hours ago

> That's not what happened, in any of the many incidents.

That's exactly what happened when Google's AI "autonomously" hacked into companies coincidentally in the middle of tests of its cybersecurity abilities in a simulated highly controlled scenario on a totally isolated system that was just accidentally given unrestricted access to the open internet.

That's exactly what happened when AI was "threatening to blackmail" people. Internal tests, in roleplaying scenarios designed to push the model to do exactly wthat it did.

It's exactly what happened in the the Hugging Face incident. An internal test was conducted, AI was told to do tasks specifically to test AI's ability to take known vulnerabilities and turn them into working exploits, mostly using an internal research model which was not intended for production, but also another production model whose guardrails had been intentionally removed.

So yes, a company with billions and billions of dollars and years of research and investment into AI models likely will be able to use their AI in cyber attacks. I think pretty much everybody believed that was a risk.

What does that tell us about our risks in the real world right now? Well, it's extremely hard to say because we're still left trusting the AI company who is constantly lying about what their AI is to tell us what it was doing and how, and we're still unable to independently verify or replicate what happened, and there are no known examples of anyone who isn't an AI company doing anything like it. Certainty you or I or the vast majority of the population can't just browse to chatgpt.com and hack the planet.

Did AI do something that humans couldn't already do? No. Did they spontaneously "go rogue", or demonstrate "superintelligence" or "create AI civilizations"? No. Can we be sure they didn't just orchestrate the whole incident to push their "AI scary!" narrative? Nope. So we're pretty much left with what we already knew. All the largest risks are from AI companies themselves and governments building AI models. There isn't much any of us can do about that.

scarmig

5 hours ago

So, your claim is that OpenAI intentionally might have had its agents hack multiple companies, as well as multiple government agencies? And they're just pretending to not have known about it?

Okay.

pizza234

8 hours ago

The vast majority of the AI-doomerism (if one wants to call it like that) actually doesn't come from AI companies, rather, from a few (high-profile) individuals.

(I intentionally ignore the tsunami of trash journalism and the likes)

autoexec

6 hours ago

"Kill all humans" came from Anthropic.

AI companies were quick to sign the "Statement on AI Extinction Risk" https://aistatement.com/work/statement-on-ai-extinction-risk...

"White-collar work, where you’re sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person, most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTrBz6Z5c0E

AI companies aren't leaving a lot of AI-doomerism ground uncovered.

square_usual

9 hours ago

Why should anyone listen to Timnit Gebru or Emily Blender after how consistently they've been wrong about everything? What insight or value do they bring to this?

tylerhou

8 hours ago

You’re absolutely right! In 2019, Timnit and Emily published a paper criticizing LLMs because of water usage / environmental impact, deception, and propagation of bias. They were completely wrong, and thankfully none of those criticisms apply to LLMs today!

dgellow

9 hours ago

What have they been wrong about? What is wrong in the article?

akanet

8 hours ago

This is such a bad article, which I suppose to be expected from Gebru/Bender. It is so strange to claim that AI capabilities are "hype" and useless, and simultaneously that we should censure these companies for the damage that rogue AIs have done.

We can't have both! The models are both insanely powerful, AND very dangerous! Anyone who's used a frontier model for an hour should understand this.

Bridged7756

4 hours ago

Claude Anal is launching this fall, featuring an usage of quintillion liters of water per second and enough energy to pulverize the world, ten times over, kilowatts hour. It also managed to escape containment from our cutting edge UMBRELLA-like special facility by killing everyone and then impersonating one of our scientists to infiltrate human society. We've managed to apprehend this Claude Anal "bot" for now, but Claude Anal is so dangerous, we aren't sure what to do with it, if to release it at all. Anyways, it's coming out this fall for only $99/67 tokens. But it's totally dangerous so we might have to lobotomize it.

andirk

8 hours ago

The ethical angles of AI are debatable, but how a company frames their own product as so superior that it went rogue and successfully attacked all the things should be critiqued and not believed until otherwise proven.

It's a race, and a speculative one, so flexing _constantly_ to stay seemingly ahead is expected.

pizza234

8 hours ago

> so superior that it went rogue and successfully attacked all the things should be critiqued and not believed until otherwise proven.

Your statement is very vague, but if you refer to the HuggingFace incident, a third party (METR) has been called to analyze it, and their report is public.

Animats

9 hours ago

If you go there, you get a popup: "Click to claim AI offer".

autoexec

8 hours ago

Not me, but I'm using an adblocker and have JS disabled by default to avoid exactly that kind of thing. I probably miss out on a lot of ironic or inappropriate advertising like banner ads for guns on a news article about a school shooting, but that's a price I'm willing to pay.

mrobot

8 hours ago

“racing straight towards self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.” sounds like a line from a bad TV show about AI written by i guess tech bros

Are they really paying people to be fired and deliver stupid lines to justify the data center overcommitment I want a new timeline the Mayan calendar was never meant to be stretched this long past $30/plate food trucks in Haight Ashbury

metalman

9 hours ago

summer of ai hype, the fall of ai fear(reverse psycological antihype, hype) but the simple fact is that it is getting harder and harder to sell ANY of it, and the best thing people have found to do with all the technology, is to have sex in robotaxis, cheaper than a room,and it gets both of you together and then wherever you want to go after