rgmerk
7 hours ago
Look, I get that Elon wants to chase AI, but why not do relatively simple, low-cost things like build a proper 7-seat SUV that uses the Cybertruck platform - or even a properly stretched Model Y platform (rather than the six-seater L)? Or how about a delivery van on a stretched Y platform?
Tesla's product line is narrow and aging rapidly.
fooker
7 hours ago
This will get TSLA valued as a car company.
They want to be valued as a ~~scifi~~ tech company.
Which is fair, given that the market (and by extension we) chose to brutally punish boring car companies that make reliable high volume cars.
Gud
6 hours ago
And by punish you mean fairly value?
DickieStarshine
6 hours ago
So, in comparison, punish.
fooker
6 hours ago
I think you missed my point.
I'm arguing that the fair value of boring companies making reliable things should be much higher. We don't do that, you have to promise hot air based growth to prevent your valuation from crashing.
The behavior we incentivize is the one we'll get.
jjav
4 hours ago
> I'm arguing that the fair value of boring companies making reliable things should be much higher.
In theory (occasionally in practice) when you purchase a stock you are purchasing a piece of the future cash flow of that company. For a company which operates in a known environment and we can roughly predict how their revenue will grow (i.e. boring companies), the correct fair value of the stock can be easily computed.
So, no, those predictable companies should not be valued much higher, they are already valued correctly because the are no big surprises in their future, the profits and revenue are predictable.
This logic breaks down with companies where the growth can't be predicted to any reasonable accuracy. So in those you're just buying the hype, which sometimes turns out to be real, sometimes not.
Unfortunately this also incentivizes some companies to pump themselves purely on hype so they never get valued on actual revenue and profit. Tesla is a prime example of this. If you value them as a car company we can easily compute a fair value, but that number is very low. So, instead, robots! AI! self-driving! Space! That keeps the fair value an unknown, so it can ride the wave of hype for a long time.
jasomill
an hour ago
Did I miss something? Tesla is developing spacecraft?
cyanydeez
an hour ago
yes, you've discovered the plight of the bigot: equality feels like punishment.
yodsanklai
7 hours ago
Do they still care about cars though or they're chasing some new things after losing to the Chinese.
fooker
6 hours ago
>after losing to the Chinese
The total market cap of all the Chinese car companies combined is about 300B.
Tesla alone is worth ~5x that, because the market rewards this behavior of chasing new things.
If Tesla suddenly pivoted to 'caring about cars' and tried their best to produce low cost reliable EVs, the market is going to punish them by valuing them at less than 300B. That is, if they succeed at that. If they fail, which would be more plausible, they go bankrupt.
Why would they voluntarily do that?
We could do that by changing public opinion or regulating what public companies must do/report, but that seems somewhat unlikely. It's so much easier to claim that autonomous driving will be solved in six months :)
jjav
4 hours ago
> The total market cap
Market cap is not a useful comparison because it can (as here) be driven by hype.
A better comparison is revenue and profit, that tells us a lot more about the business each is operating.
alphabeta3r56
4 hours ago
BYD had revenue of 110B while tesla had 96B and both have around 4B dollar of profits. BYD also has better credit line (from Chinese govt), which is the whole point of market cap. I dont think official market cap value reflrct this reality.
user
4 hours ago
schiffern
4 hours ago
Did BYD stop losing money on EVs yet?
Last I checked they (still) never release their EV profit alone, always bundling the numbers with plug-in hybrids and high-margin battery sales to other companies. If BYD made money on EVs there'd be no need for shenanigans.
surgical_fire
4 hours ago
Wasn't Tesla unprofitable until as late as 2020? And I mean, fully unprofitable, with no shenanigans to save it.
Why for US companies is it okay to be unprofitable while they grow, but for Chinese companies it is shenanigans?
Also, if they actually sell things such as high-margin batteries, is it even shenanigans? Using a profitable division to finance the growth of another division sounds like excellent business strategy to me. Better than promising bullshit FSD to artificially inflate the stock price.
blooalien
6 hours ago
> It's so much easier to claim that autonomous driving will be solved in six months
Why so long? Six months? According to God-King Trump who apparently knows everything better than anyone, we're already well past "AI" into Super-Intelligence. Just ask the Machine-God to bestow autonomous driving upon us and we're good to go, yeah? Time to bring on those flying cars in every garage we was all promised decades ago!
fooker
6 hours ago
Six months is the ideal time for people to forget about what you claimed.
Opposite seasons, new wars, at least one new thing to be outraged about.
kersplody
7 hours ago
Why not a Cyberbus based on the cybertruck platform? I’d kill for 8–12 passenger minibuses in the LVCC tunnels during CES instead of the 3 passenger Teslas.
MisterMunchkin
4 hours ago
And why don’t they have a HUD? Every other car does. Teslas were cool in the 2010s, but now they’re just old and sad.
rgmerk
an hour ago
Just like an instrument panel and an indicator stalk.
It’s a shame, because even after all these years Teslas are still state of the art in quite a few aspects (their packaging and drivetrain efficiency, among others). But here in Oz where we have a smorgasbord of cheap and excellent Chinese EVs, there are better options unless you want FSD above all else.
benhurmarcel
an hour ago
They skimp on plastic buttons, you think they'll include a HUD?
Betelbuddy
6 hours ago
Its not a car company, according to the CEO...
KellyCriterion
5 hours ago
yeah, its a .com == AI company :-D
tehlike
7 hours ago
I would also like a 7 seater, but that might be uniquely american concept.
Svip
7 hours ago
In Europe, they are usually known as MPVs or "people carriers"; Renault has made their Espace since 1984 (though, it looks like they abandoned that format in 2012); there was also the Renault Grand Scénic, which ended in 2022. So not a uniquely American concept, but it seems like the market in Europe for them is thinning significantly. A shame though, I really like the look of that Espace mk1.
zh3
7 hours ago
Also the Citroen Grand C4 [1], which is a 7-seater where the back row fold down to get a completely flat foor - great family car. It's been replaced by the Space Tourer now I believe, which goes up to a 9-seater.
[1] https://www.autotrader.co.uk/cars/used/citroen/grand-c4-pica...
ygra
7 hours ago
It's not really a vehicle that many people need. Our VW Caddy seats 7 with the third row of seats, but that was installed for a week before we took it out and it's been in the garage since then. I've had the car full of stuff more often than I had it full of people. And even then it's mostly air in a car that's shaped like a brick wall that's been driven around most of the time. I can drive it at around 6.5 l/100 km of gas, but 7.1 is more typical. So a more sensible choice would have been a smaller and more efficient car.
drcongo
5 hours ago
Full size MPVs are status symbols in Japan and China, they're making a little bit of a comeback in Europe at the moment with various copies of the Toyota Alphard like the Lexus LM and about 50 different Chinese clones arriving soon like the Denza D9, Xpeng X9, Zeekr 009 etc. I have an imported Vellfire, so I'm quite exited for all the clones coming.
fjlunky
6 hours ago
I feel like the opposite is true, Americans seem oddly opposed to vans, minivans, and people movers. Toyota alone make something like 20 different models with three rows of seats as standard, and school event parking where I am is packed with 7 seaters. Wasn’t Tesla Model X a 7 seater?
IsTom
6 hours ago
I've seen taxi drivers use them in Europe multiple times basically every time you want to transport more people. Beats using 2 cars.
Hamuko
6 hours ago
Any more than the four-door full-size pickup truck that is the Cybertruck?
eddythompson80
7 hours ago
Not really. Peugeot has been making 7 seaters for over half a century now.
qwerpy
7 hours ago
Yeah I’d love a cybervan or model XL. Pretty much every family I know would get one. In lieu of that we all got model Ys / cybertrucks instead, and then we grumble about it when the in-laws come to visit and we need to drive two cars to take the family out. YL is fine but they needed to go further. Need 3 proper rows and storage space!
dzhiurgis
an hour ago
> aging rapidly.
Visually yes, but technology still vastly mogs all but zeekr maybe.
But that doesn’t matter - most people seem to buy cars entirely by how it looks.
jmalicki
7 hours ago
Because tesla has always been selling dollars for $0.50. Investing in their product lines doesn't help them, it's always been a grift and a shell game. Some great products have come out of it, but the valuation has never been one where selling more products helps the business, unless it can lead to the hype train.
rgmerk
7 hours ago
Sure, but if they're losing money, you go looking for ways to make a bit more money without having to spend too much. My contention is at least some of these things could be done relatively cheaply and would generate additional sales.
Tesla may be getting belted from pillar to post elsewhere in the world by the Chinese but they a) still have a near-monopoly in EVs in the US, and b) have a cost-competitive EV manufacturing operation in China from which they can supply other parts of the world.
That still doesn't help their image problem, which is still very real for many left-leaning affluent consumers around the world, but that's less of a problem for commercial vehicles.
gfrecvh
7 hours ago
If they start doing that, everybody will finally see that they're just a car company and their stock will be priced like one.
UltraSane
4 hours ago
Honestly it seems like Musk is just plain bored with cars.
user
7 hours ago