Trust me bro ... enormous ... and we are going to destroy the human race too.

I’m not sure “presumption” is a valid methodology to evaluate a company’s performance.

[dead]

But the technology also doesn’t have to be transformative either. I for one am not convinced.

The two things being true may as well be: LLM will not be transformative and the LLM business is mangled in terms of ROIC vs CoC.

In fact given the behavior of AI companies, I actually consider it more likely then not that the effects of the technology is severely over-hyped. I for one do not trust the words of the people who mangle their business in terms of ROIC and CoC. Why should I?

If my ridiculous $100+/m subscription to the single dumb pipe that has a government-endorsed monopoly in my area is anything to go by, they're extracting plenty of value from this customer at least.

I don't think telecom is the same. 2025 net income for the big 3 US telecoms: AT&T: $22B Verizon: $17B T-Mobile: $11B

Funny, I don’t remember NLP being useful as a coding agent or solving cutting edge math problems.

There's, uh, a reason ChatGPT is one of the biggest consumer apps of all time.

"Generate me an explainer video of someone holding a sign stating "I have no idea what I'm talking about" being educated about the realities of time, labor, and 'good enough'"

You're right. I didn't even need AI to get my point across.

[dead]

This is likely a convertible debt investment from Amazon being revalued. The numbers are pretty close, there might be some smaller notes in there too.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426...

If I understand correctly it means that they have a lot of debt and with increasing interest rates, they have to spend a significant chunk in just paying interest

They increased the projected liability of pre-existing financial deals that include share options.

Convertible notes are worth more as the valuation of the company increases and under accounting rules that’s considered an expense for the company?

If you truly believe that the cost of financing should not be included in your net loss (I don‘t know anything about money, so I don‘t know whether you should or not) $8 billion in net loss is also mindboggingly large number.

As a member of the working class who believes this money is coming from systemic exploitation of the working classes, I hate it that Anthrhopic can just loose $8 billion like that. Those $8 billion could have been used elsewhere, including to mitigate the effects of the climate disaster, to educate the youth, towards social security, or to increase the wages of the working people who could have used it to pay rent, or go to the cinema, or a family trip to visit their grandma who lives in Wyoming.

There won’t be a bailout. I doubt the obligations will even amount to anything substantial anyways.

Many of these obligations are with the big clouds who don’t have capacity to serve them anyways. Google has said they have hundreds of billions in purchase obligations they can’t fill because they don’t have enough TPUs and data centers. Google gets a bigger marketing and investor headline, and there’s a queue behind Anthropic if they bail, so of course everyone would sign the commitments knowing the risks.

I’m sure AWS and Azure are on the same page.

In the worst case, many of their biggest customers have tons of GPUs (Meta, AWS), so they could always license out their raw models at steep discount to help absolve themselves of the obligations.

Finally, in the worst case scenario, even with margin compression, they pre-purchased most of the compute so there’s not enough for the open models to run on. If Opus was the same price as Kimi/GLM, I doubt many people would pick the open models.

This is true. If they aren't showing the details, it's because the details make them look worse.

Here's another amazing trick for revenue growth: buy items on Amazon and then sell them on your website for half the price.

Revenue growth means nothing if you don't have a viable business plan. Anthropic doesn't have one, except "this thing is more important than Big Bang". I don't discount the possibility that they stay afloat on borrowed money long enough to actually find a way to be profitable / rule the world. But it's nothing other than appeal to consequence right now.

Likely Meta

I'm guessing XAI

Probably cursor.

Amazon is my guess

Nah, more probably some VC backed coding tool startup.

I would assume clouds count as resellers not customers.