skew-aberration
9 hours ago
This is a topic I'm interested in, but the presentation and exposition on the website leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, it does make you sound like a crank.
Almost all of the theory and predictions presented seems to be those of regular classical economics, per Smith, Riccardo, and particularly George. You can find them in Wealth of Nations, Progress and Poverty. This surprises people who have been failed by our education systems. There are still many people writing about this exact topic now - the author does mention e.g Stiglitz.
The author seems to be overcome by the explanatory power of a 150-250 year-old well-established economic theory, of which fable has built a fairly general (novel? improved?) macro model for him, including the effects of certain tax policies. They present this as a new theory of economics rather than a new macro model.
It's very off-putting as a reader - you can't distinguish at a glance between what the author claims to have contributed vs merely discovered by reading about Georgism. Established concepts are not referred to be their usual names, etc.
jerf
8 hours ago
So, like, legit pro AI tip, at least for 3rd-quarter 2026... whenever you're working on something interesting, ask the AI about prior art, or to do a scan of the scientific literature. Whether it's economics, health, or something algorithmic at work, at least the AIs I've used (as we've not all spent all the time with all the models) are still generally inclined to give you exactly what you ask for. They may do a good job at giving you what you asked for, but they won't generally do a whole lot more. Ask them to go looking around and it's like giving them a 30 point IQ boost sometimes. They all operate way better when you fill the context window with relevant information then when you're operating just in the latent space of their training, but they only rarely seek it out without being prompted on their own.
On my near-term todo list is to explore a particular crank physics theory of my own with AI... but not as a way to validate it, I know it's a crank theory that is far too simple to have been missed by pros in the relevant fields, but as a window into the literature and figure out what's wrong with it and thereby learn something. I will be framing it to the AI in pretty much precisely that way: Go get literature and reputable sources and talk through why this is already well known, probably well known to be a bad and wrong idea.
I still feel like not enough people are talking about this here on HN... AI has opened the scientific literature like never before. It's like being able to interrogate it and interview it as if it was a person, rather than just searching papers, for keywords you don't know, for lines of thought you've never heard of, in a sub-sub-sub-field you didn't even know existed, and failing before you even knew what it is you wanted. I've read more papers in the past 6 months than the past 10 years. Whatever opportunity you have to try this out, be it some question bothering you for the last 10 years, or a crank theory of your own to prove out against the literature, the foundation of some vibe-coded program informed by the literature rather than just vibing on the neural weights directly, or just asking something random about the studied effects of beavers on local ecosystems, you gotta try this. Prompt it specifically for "reputable sources and scientific papers", that helps a lot. It does not make you suddenly an expert in the field, but it does let you poke through the pile of literature far, far more effectively than you could hope to before.
And then don't forget to ask it why your summary is wrong or incomplete. Even if it doesn't convince you, you'll learn yet more.
mattwiese
8 hours ago
Yup, I too am surprised this hasn't (at least by my awareness) entered the zeitgeist.
At work I'm putting together an MCP server that more easily exposes our legume data for model consumption, and part of the insane value-add has been the curatorial work that our collaborators at USDA put into the data over years. For example, genome data (i.e. nucleic acid fastas) include relevant metadata such as their DOIs, so models can fetch and read the original papers (if they're open access, of course).
This goes a long way to boosting the intelligence/usefulness of these systems for research.
copperx
7 hours ago
Yeah, you have to do the lateral thinking yourself. But the LLMs can do the work of going into a single-focus rabbit hole quite quickly.
edot
7 hours ago
Yes, exactly. Researchers will not like the fact that I refer to the literature as merely a manual, but “RTFM” applies here. Someone has likely already investigated what you’re looking at, or at least found a way to not do it. And sure it’s in the weights, but if you put papers directly in front of the LLM it’s much more impactful.
hanspagel
4 hours ago
> why this is already well known, probably well known to be a bad and wrong idea.
This is still pointing the LLM in a specific direction . You might want to prompt something like “give me a summary of relevant literature” and avoid sharing your point of view. Wdyt?
tomveber
2 hours ago
[dead]
skew-aberration
9 hours ago
'classical economics doesn't know how technology affects the wage' - ridiculous, classical economists were addressing exactly how technology was changing society and economic relationships. they didn't have accurate/useful models but they described the relationships in great detail. Sentences like this make me question the author's ability to evaluate their own paper.
oefrha
9 hours ago
Yes, crack open an intro to macroeconomics textbook and it has to discuss total factor productivity (technological progress) in the Cobb-Douglas production function, and its short run and long run effects on wages, or it's quite easy to connect the dots if it doesn't discuss that relationship directly. You'll get medium run too if you go a little beyond classical. It's funny someone claims to be writing economics papers but refuses to spend 100 hours, maybe less, to learn the fundamentals of macroeconomics as understood by everyone working in a related field.
> I simply could not have written this piece. I myself have no formal economics background
No shit, me neither, I read a couple macroeconomics textbooks at the age of 30 and now I wouldn't make arrogant and obviously wrong claims like the above. And I don't have the hubris to publish a paper.
tolerance
9 hours ago
Thank you for being able to point out and articulate these issues. LLMs have a habit of laundering pre-existing concepts per the interests (or input) of any given user.
howunfortunate
8 hours ago
To be fair, human scientists also frequently launder small modifications to pre-existing work as if it's completely novel.
tolerance
6 hours ago
That's why I don't trust 'em neither!
boringg
8 hours ago
I feel bad for the humans who rediscover what we have already discovered and position it as something new. If this keeps happening soon we will be in an endless loop without gain.
Ah well.
bix6
8 hours ago
I also tried to understand what they were saying. I read the website and skimmed the paper. It left me confused and unclear on what the takeaways really are.
crooked-v
9 hours ago
It reminds me of the people who reinvent some basic concept of physics with an LLM (usually, but not always, incorrectly) and think it's 'revolutionary'.
layla5alive
7 hours ago
Your discomfort may be understated - this phenomena seems to be a slippery slope towards a kind of Dunning-Kruger accidental plagiarism via LLM?
oliviayii
3 hours ago
[flagged]