RivieraKid
17 hours ago
I'm not that young anymore but when I hear Dario Amodei speak and gesticulate enthusiastically about how AI will soon make my job redundant, from a positio of someone who can retire now and who benefits from AI possibly replacing workers, it's very hard to like him.
giancarlostoro
16 hours ago
Lets suppose everyone in the world miraculously loses their jobs to AI, who is paying for it? How? What are they selling? What stops the rest of humanity from turning data centers into a pile of ash?
These people are so disconnected from reality.
tim333
22 minutes ago
Historically, new tech making a job redundant leads to people who were doing it doing something else - horse stagecoach drivers become motorised vehicle drivers and so forth. I'm not quite sure what Dario's take is on that.
xedrac
12 hours ago
I think they believe that AI will account for nearly all production, and jobs will no longer be necessary. At the very least, it's going to be tumultuous.
JeremyNT
3 hours ago
The current oligarchy has forgotten the lessons of history.
The implicit deal is that they can keep extracting the value from us as long as they keep tossing us enough scraps.
They show every intention of claiming a bigger piece of the pie in return for basically nothing, and that kind of shit will lead to an unstable system eventually.
dofm
13 hours ago
If there isn't an appropriate metaphor in the Silmarillion he's not going to have thought about it.
Yizahi
2 hours ago
After mentally stepping aside from the cozy developed country context, the answer becomes obvious really. Regular citizens won't pay for the excesses of our benevolent overlords if they have no income, but they will build and sustain that excess for pittance or for food or for free. Look at any country rapidly de-evolving back in time - Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Afghanistan and the most prominent North Korea. So it's not a fluke or regional, it happens across the globe - when living conditions degrade, in most cases people just tend to adapt and adapt and adapt until they continue working but in subhuman conditions.
cute_boi
15 hours ago
And, idk what is the end goal here. Even if 20% of people lose their job the crime and prostitution will shoot up....
DANmode
14 hours ago
More free time for proper rest, hobby, and well-considered expression?
I’m not saying Anthropic and OpenAI are going to be the ones to deliver it - but…you really don’t see the ubiquitous need for these?
apple4ever
10 hours ago
How will we be able to have those when we have no job and no home and no money?
DANmode
2 hours ago
Again, this isn’t my perspective, just again parroting what’s being asked for:
if there’s less work to be done for everyone to have what they need, that would be considered a benefit by governed society, and universal basic income will likely be rolled out.
quantified
13 hours ago
Ain't going to happen and you know it.
preg_match
12 hours ago
It might happen but it certainly won’t be instant. It will take decades, and in the meantime what happens? Are those people just unbelievably fucked? Our current economic systems literally cannot handle this. The underpinning of all of capitalism is that you work, and you consume.
If even one of those assumptions is no longer true, nothing works. And when I mean nothing, I mean nothing. Money doesn’t work, rent doesn’t work, debt doesn’t work, labor doesn’t work, production doesn’t work. It would have to be a quick de-industrialization unless we have a plan. No more monkey-patching with social programs, this is an entire paradigm shift.
DANmode
13 hours ago
Not saying it will - just that that’s how they’re selling the shares and taking on the giant investments.
Blinding need. We don’t have time for each other like we used to.
DANmode
13 hours ago
“Not with that attitude!”
scotty79
15 hours ago
You also just explained how people fearing that AI will take all jobs are equally disconnected from reality. Although in less joyful manner.
r_lee
15 hours ago
what kind of bargaining power will you have with "well someone must consume!"?
scotty79
6 hours ago
All of the power? Without consumers, no business has any reason to exist.
You can do business without workers, investors, shareholders. You can't do business without consumers.
inigyou
4 hours ago
By that logic homeless people should be powerful because they're potential consumers. But the system only gives power to those who can produce things that are valuable to wealthy people.
scotty79
4 hours ago
> But the system only gives power to those who can produce
Spot on. So that's the main point that needs to be addressed. Or rather expanded upon. Because already a ton of people get awarded purchasing power without doing any useful economic activity.
And it's gonna be expanded because without purchasing power we can't play the game called business. And people like business, because it makes some of them richer and richer.
r_lee
5 hours ago
so how will there be any other class than a basic UBI class that gets the bare minimum, with no way to climb the ladder in any way?
why would businesses need everybody to participate when a specific portion of people are enough?
scotty79
4 hours ago
I don't think only UBI will remain. People will be getting money through a lot of different schemes, some merit or effort based. So there will be ways to climb. Just not through "hard work" because the "work" part is going to be mostly missing. To see how climbing the ladder might look in the future look at spots in our society that perform no useful economic activity. Military, prisons, government offices, the rich, homeless. How you get ahead there is going be the way you go ahead everywhere in a society where human work is obsolete.
> why would businesses need everybody to participate when a specific portion of people are enough?
For business nothing is ever enough. It creates products and customers for them out of thin air. The only required thing is money in the consumer pocket. Business itself is going to pressure governments to give more people more money, by whatever means necessary, so it can scoop it up off of them.
What even some millionaires now realize is that it's very hard to take the money away from other millionaires. They don't spend that much. But if you tax them and give the money to consumers, suddenly, as a rich person, you have clear path to taking this money for yourself, just by having a successful customer facing business.
That (among other things) is why some rich advocate for higher taxation of the rich.
If everyone around you is poor it's very hard to get any richer yourself, regardless of how much you already have. And rich people like getting richer most of all.
lenkite
8 hours ago
The rich people sell to each other and AI corps while maintaining a strong "freedom" force to ensure that their "rights" are protected. Injury to a data-center will be considered an act of vile terrorism and punished with life-detention employment (aka slave labour) or the relife correction (if your organs are good for farming).
inigyou
4 hours ago
And you'll still have to pay rent or property taxes, and if you don't pay rent then armed thugs will come to "your" house and kick you out of it. Despite the fact it's literally impossible to pay because there are no jobs.
h05sz487b
9 hours ago
TBH the promise of many technologies has been making work redundant. But they used to be more diplomatic about it.
piloto_ciego
14 hours ago
Man, I see this stuff, and I think, "my god! think of the opportunity we have to replace the current economic system with something where we're not all in a fierce knife fight to try to stay employed so we don't starve!"
We have to stop fearing the machines and start fearing the firmware running on our brains! It's capitalism that's the problem, not the robots... if anything the robots can liberate us from capital's death grip!
trescenzi
14 hours ago
If Dario was up there preaching about replacing today with Star Trek I think people wouldn’t hate it. Everything those at the head of this project say amounts to the current state except abject poverty for everyone but them. When Dario donates his share in Anthropic to fight hunger I’ll consider being optimistic that capital is going anywhere.
Yizahi
2 hours ago
Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm no trekkie myself, but isn't Star Trek timeline starts with a series or world wars in 21st century which results in a nuclear holocaust and a big fraction of planet inhabitants exterminated? Doesn't sound very enticing honestly :)
skupig
14 hours ago
>replace the current economic system with something where we're not all in a fierce knife fight to try to stay employed
Jobs will become even more scarce, so how does that follow?
>robots can liberate us from capital's death grip
We are already live in a world sufficiently technologically advanced to feed and house everyone, and yet we don't.
grebc
14 hours ago
It’s amusing to imagine the oligarchs are going to anymore charitable than currently.
piloto_ciego
14 hours ago
They don't have to be charitable.
We can literally take it from them. I get why people don't like to think about that sort of thing, but... yeah. We could make AI a sort of public good and do something like the Permanent Fund Dividend or something. There's lots of options even in the "reformist" way of thinking about it. But we shouldn't be naive.
inigyou
4 hours ago
You can't use HN to advocate for violent uprising.
archagon
2 hours ago
Yes, you must launder any advocacy for violence through the use of neutral language like “defense industry,” which has wide support and even VC funding around here.
grebc
13 hours ago
Oh yeah don’t be naive, but we’ll just take what we want. Ok bro.
piloto_ciego
13 hours ago
I mean, we've done it before lol
SR2Z
14 hours ago
It's not their choice, no matter how much they'd like it to be.
The Chinese models are able to distill outputs into a model of slightly worse performance within a few weeks of each release, and the same copyright exemptions which protect these guys scraping also protect China.
As long as their lobbyists don't win (and the deck is stacked against them, make no mistake) the future of AI is not going to be owned by the frontier labs.
JKCalhoun
12 hours ago
Is it the replacing workers thing so much or are young people just fucking sick of tech (and Silicon Valley in general) and AI is the latest whipping boy?
(Or maybe I'm just projecting.)
bbor
16 hours ago
Talk about shooting the messenger…
JustResign
16 hours ago
A CEO of a large AI company is hardly just a "messenger" here. Come on now.
superze
15 hours ago
He is just the poor little head of the snake.
bbor
15 hours ago
I… yes, he is. He wasn’t born when this was put in motion by Turing in 1950, and he quit OpenAI to try to stick to their original mission, which was exclusively and ambitiously to prevent what most (who cared to look at it) assumed was inevitable.
AI isn’t a new iPhone moment, it’s a fire moment. Dario Amodei didn’t bring it into existence, physics did — we’re just slowly working out the cognitive science for the first time after Crysis machines ended up being really good at something that our type of intelligence relies on (intuitive framing via huge neural networks — see The Frame Problem).
Also this doesn’t really matter in anthropic’s case, but FWIW: we should try to blame CEOs a bit less, and shareholders (capitalists) a lot more. Our system isn’t named ‘officerism’, after all!
shibapuppie
11 hours ago
Absolutely! I mean, they didn't start the fire so why are we mad at them for fueling the fire?? It's not their fault!!
bbor
9 hours ago
Anthropic has not been “fueling the fire”. They’re the reason most of y’all even know there’s a fire.
caterwhal
11 hours ago
Terribly interesting that being a messenger these days is so lucrative. $15.5b net worth, while definitely not at the top of the food chain, is really living in this day and age, wouldn't you say? Simply wonderful to be just aligned so nicely in the progression of the universe, because all this was decided long, long ago after all, to just be leaving us all a kind note that everything humanity has achieved thus far is moot, there is nothing in our current system we should carry forward, that there isn't any possibility that we could use our very small minds to come up with any concerns or reasons why this might be the best path, and that no, we don't have any say in it, and for his paltry and humble service to us on the behalf on Physics, Dario squeaks out a living just like the rest of us.
So kind also of Physics himself to have gone to such trouble, to have invented all these brilliant GPUs in the first place, synthesized trillions of dollars to build the data centers to hold them, and burned the midnight electrons mining all that coal and natural gas to fuel the power plants it built too.
All is for the best in this best of all possible worlds in which inevitability steers our destiny. You know, I've really been considering getting a lobotomy myself. I guess it's a pretty grand idea that thinking is now categorically outmoded. But then again I might really should have done it when they were cheaper in 2010, because Physics had it all under control anyway!
The fundamental delusion of this take is why we are suffering this lunacy. When the crash happens after the circular ponzi scheme hanging all its risk on the public breaks apart the hatred for these lunatics will be justified.
But then I guess the lunatics would simply claim that they didn't have enough situational awareness as they run away with our tax money after the bailout.
bbor
9 hours ago
When the crash happens after the circular ponzi scheme hanging all its risk on the public breaks apart
Any day now, we’ll all realize that the scientists were wrong all along, and were just lying to scare us. Any day now! Ed Zitron has proof that it’ll happen before the end of 2023, even.solid_fuel
16 hours ago
The CEO of a major AI company is not “the messenger”
happytoexplain
16 hours ago
He's the guy doing the thing that he is delivering the message about...