arjie
10 hours ago
The numbers in question are quite wild[0]
> The NOAA assessment estimated the Pacific sardine biomass will be at 27,547 metric tons by the summer – significantly less than the 150,000 metric tons needed to reopen the fishery to commercial fishing. Any fishery at less than 50,000 metric tons is considered to be overfished. The assessment estimates the sardine biomass was around 1.8 million metric tons in 2006.
Haha, damn. Fishermen must have visibly noticed such a decline. 1,800,000 metric tons to 27,000 metric tons. Two orders of magnitude. Wow.
0: https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/environment-sustainabilit...
specialp
6 hours ago
When a fishery crashes, it is dramatic and takes a long time to recover if ever. There's been plenty of fisheries like cod that one could not conceive being depleted but it has been now for decades.
Estimates of catches, mortality, existing stock are prone to error because we don't really know much about how fish live and their overall population. But once that crash happens it is known and too late. Cod crashed in 1992 and still hasn't recovered
rukuu001
6 hours ago
Yes, seen this happen in Tasmania, Australia with crayfish, scallops and orange roughy. Each went from free-for-all to highly managed quotas within a few years. Roughy fishing stopped completely back then, don't know what the status is now.
> we don't really know much about how fish live and their overall population
Absolutely yes. Orange roughy is a good example - it was caught by trawlers when they were massed in huge balls near the surface. Easy to get a big catch quickly. Turns out this was when they were spawning, so breeding cycle was being interrupted, which led to catastrophic declines very quickly.
2b3a51
2 hours ago
My understanding is that the cod fishery decline in Atlantic waters has had limited recovery because the ecological niche that the cod fish occupied has been taken over to some extent by a small shark species. The wikipedia page mentions 'trophic cascade' so larger populations of prey species but does not mention the shark takeover. Either way cutting the harvesting won't bring the fish back.
Frieren
43 minutes ago
> because the ecological niche that the cod fish occupied has been taken over to some extent by a small shark species.
That is very interesting, I wish this kind of things were taught in school. Too many people think that animals just exists in the current state for ever. When in reality it is a dynamic system that once changed cannot be brought back.
Schlagbohrer
12 minutes ago
Too many people think food grows on a grocery store shelf. If they've never grown a plant from seed and eaten the result, it is hard to internalize the reality of the supply chain.
BrtByte
3 hours ago
That's the scary part. By the time the data is unambiguous enough for everyone to agree the stock has collapsed, you're already dealing with the collapse rather than preventing it
karmakurtisaani
2 hours ago
Seems like a pattern with environmental problems.
atoav
an hour ago
Turns out, it is hard to understand a potential future problem if your salary or comfort in the present depends on you not understanding it.
Climate change is pretty much the same.
awakeasleep
6 hours ago
We need to restart oceanic iron fertilization!
BrtByte
3 hours ago
I can imagine fishermen noticing the change long before it showed up as an empty shelf at a supermarket
ra
9 hours ago
It's a terrible picture almost everywhere you look.
The Antarctic krill population is facing a similar decline due to influencer marketing (promoting Krill as a superior omega 3 supplement). Sardines and Krill are the foundation of the entire oceanic food ecosystems. This is not good.
flohofwoe
2 hours ago
> ...decline due to influencer marketing...
As terrible as the influencer scourge is for society, I somehow doubt that it was a 3 day social media fad a couple of weeks or months ago caused the collapse of ocean wildlife.
vkou
4 hours ago
That's what happened to the Atlantic cod fishery. The biologists kept warning of collapse, the relevant regulators didn't want to piss off the fishermen, and didn't institute necessary restrictions, and then the fishery collapsed.
The fishermen, of course, blamed the dab gum gubmbent for getting in their business. Anything but taking responsibility for their actions.
inigyou
6 hours ago
Some enterprising entrepreneur will realise there are still 27,547 metric tons left to sell, and capitalism will be saved!
card_zero
6 hours ago
You might consider how hunter-gatherers (probably) ate all the mammoths, and other elephant-alikes, and the giant kangaroos. I mean capitalism isn't crucial to making humans immoderate although I suppose it gets them better boats.
riffraff
2 hours ago
The book "not the end of the world" by Hanna Ritchie makes a neat point that humans have never lived in what we would call a sustainable way, but it's possible for this generation to be the first one that does.
vintermann
2 hours ago
Capitalism is just one form of "let people with power use that power freely to accumulate more power", which never ends well.
But the alternative "overthrow power" is costly enough that we usually procrastinate.
annzabelle
4 hours ago
The Māori ate all the Moa before Europeans showed up, and they had some pretty damn good boats before capitalism.
Not disagreeing or anything, just thought it was a funny anecdote.
card_zero
4 hours ago
There's some kind of tacit ideological downvote gunfight going on in this thread. Run for cover!
jiggawatts
6 hours ago