ElProlactin
8 hours ago
> I was talking to a friend of mine and I asked this. She said “of course everyone should be working, I mean, I’d like to be able to buy more stuff”
This sounds like the type of thing you hear from a person sipping a rare single-origin pour-over after their pilates class in Palo Alto.
In the real world, the average person would probably tell you something like "of course everyone should be working, I mean, I need to pay my rent, electricity bill, buy food, etc.".
Most people in this world work because they need to earn money to pay for basic necessities of life, not because they want to buy more stuff.
> Here is a very simple statement which may sound a bit mean: it is entirely feasible that giving a job to a “stupid” person, regardless of how much we try and train them, might cost the economy more than we benefit, in aggregate.
The economy is not society, though, and having a bunch of unhappy people who are poor and have nothing to do is probably not good for a country's well-being.
Until there's an alternative system that allows people to have their basic needs met without working, unemployment is a problem, and even if you had that system, we have no idea whether or not the masses will be content enough to stay sane and peaceful.
edflsafoiewq
8 hours ago
I interpreted that to mean "other people should be working because it will enable me personally to buy more stuff (that they produce)", not "each person should be working because working will allow that person to buy themselves more stuff".
317070
8 hours ago
> if you had that system, we have no idea whether or not the masses will be content enough to stay sane and peaceful.
Belgium, the Netherlands and a lot of European countries, have a "leefloon" or "bijstand". It is a monthly payment from the government if you have no other sources of income or wealth. The name means it is "pay to stay alive". It's not a lot (1518.29 dollars today for a single person), but allows for the necessities.
So what happens is not _really_ unknown.
xtiansimon
2 hours ago
> “So what happens is not _really_ unknown.”
I made a career change in my 40s into at a small (< 20 persons) company just above minimum wage. Once my employer decided I was worth keeping around, my wages increased. I was living in a cheap 1rm SRO (very hard to find), commuting 1.5h to Manhattan. Now after 11yrs I’ve purchased a coop in Queens. I put my success as due to low cost of living.
A guaranteed income _might_ have helped do this faster. The jobs I had (previous to now) directly lead me to cheap housing owned by that employer. My next 2 years were filled with labor abuse—long hours below minimum wage. But That community took care of its own. I don’t know how that scales up with everyone getting this Guaranteed Wage. Maybe this GW helps you rent at market rates, but I had some rent forbearance in the form of more abusive work in that little community. You can’t have that with government assistance. Work and housing at the bottom are precarious, and you need support which in my case came from the same private source.
I guess what I’m trying to get my head around is the idea government programs are inflationary but in a way that the underground economy are not.
ElProlactin
8 hours ago
Quick AI research: the number of people receiving minimum income benefits in European countries represents under 5% of the population. So I don't think that tells you what happens to society when this becomes a primary source of income for a significant minority if not the majority of people.
317070
8 hours ago
If you adjust for all ways people receive minimum income benefits, not just the 'final resort' one, you get
> In Belgium, roughly 4.35 million adults (aged 18 and older) are not working out of an adult population of about 9.5 million, around 45%.
Of those, roughly 3.95 million or 40% receive government income above the leefloon.
hamper653
8 hours ago
Are you counting retired workers?
317070
7 hours ago
Absolutely.
Do note that in the US (and loads of countries) people save for their own retirement, whereas in Belgium the government pays the retirement in a "workers today pay retirees today" system.
hamper653
7 hours ago
Are you also counting workers on vacation? On a weekend? At home after their shift?
317070
6 hours ago
If those workers receive pay from somebody else than their employer to do that, one might count them, but I don't know any countries where they do. I don't think there are economic metrics that take weekends into account when defining regular employment.
I'm not sure what you're aiming at with this question.
hamper653
6 hours ago
There is no ontological difference between:
- a worker taking a few weeks of paid rest as a compensation for working several months,
- and a worker taking a few years of paid rest as a compensation for working several decades.
Whatever practicalities you may invoke to make them seem different, these situations are in essence the same.
sscaryterry
8 hours ago
I'm sure its saying living loan (could be grant in this context) or assistance and not "pay to stay alive".
317070
7 hours ago
"Loon" is Dutch for wage. A loan would be "lening", even though "loon" and loan sound exactly the same.
sscaryterry
7 hours ago
> not "pay to stay alive"
Focus on this part. (Edit: I consider the choice of words either clumsy or insensitive)
317070
6 hours ago
Because without an income people tend to not live for very long and that idea makes people uncomfortable? I had not considered that.
"Wage to live on" is perhaps a more euphonic translation then.
spwa4
6 hours ago
In Belgium they make "Living Wage" extremely unattractive by having a LOT of extra conditions associated with it. In other words: a number of people at least as large as the number getting leefloon choose to instead do with nothing (and not pay rent, and steal, and ...)
Why? A few conditions to getting leefloon:
1) you have to rent (officially) and pay your rent (we'll start of easy)
2) you do not get enough money to pay rent in any of the big cities. Oh and the city and police will hate you since OCMW eats out of their budgets
The amount depends on your circumstances, but minimum wage in Belgium (which you won't get on "interim" jobs, btw) is 2200 (after tax).
Leefloon is: 800 if sharing an apartment, 1300 if you live by yourself, 1800 if you provide for at least one child.
3) you must give FULL insight to all your finances to the OCMW. If you have savings you are not eligible (and if you don't they can reclaim up to 10 years of benefits)
If you own a house you have to sell that and live off the proceeds until they run out before you become eligible for leefloon.
4) you must give FULL insight to your entire situation to the OCMW. If you have any sort of support, even outside of the country, you are not eligible (standard 10 year ...)
5) you must be willing to work, unless you have a recent certification from a Belgian doctor that you are permanently unable to (and you have to get that again, at your expense, every year). Oh and you have to prove this, at minimum once per month, but usually once per year. Going to the OCMW, wait 2 hours, list, with proof, what you've done to get a job since last time
This includes working for free "for the community", which means for city hall.
Oh, there are now several ways for employers to pay you less than minimum wage, as well as make you pay for insurance ("interim" jobs) and you can't refuse those jobs if on leefloon
6) you must let the OCMW do a "social investigation" into you and your entire situation (your home, your friends, your family, ...). This also means you have to accept "social help" (which many people are unwilling to do because, well because it sucks). OCMW wants you to take drug treatment? You have to? OCMW wants you to learn a language course? You have to show up. OCMW wants you to take a plumber course? You have to.
7) you have to justify ALL your expenses (meaning you have to get receipts for everything, down to every drink you buy in the supermarket), and go over them on a monthly basis with an OCMW employee.
8) you're not allowed to do any kind of studying (and can't have done so in the last 2 years)
9) OCMW is known for being very unpleasant to work with, to the point they need police protection in a lot of places (certainly in cities)
This is VERY different from UBI. Very, very, very different.
The way to cheat the system is to "work", but be fake long term ill. You get a job, you get a doctor to declare you long term ill (you know, take drugs before you do or something) and they can't fire you for 2 years. This will generally pay between double and triple leefloon for as long as it lasts.
Needless to say, the government is in a fight with doctors. The government wants to set a quota on doctors for how many patients they can declare long-term ill. And doctors complain, first about patients that are long term ill and patients' existnece doesn't respect quotas, second about patients that threaten (and commit) violence unless they get their long-term-ill certification. Obviously government also demands doctors don't refuse patients and almost never gives any kind of protection even in hospitals (meaning hospitals have to provide private security which is fine for huge hospitals but a problem for small ones. Also, obviously, such security will not protect patients' rights against doctors).
Obviously employers don't want this, since the government has decided they're paying most of the wage in this case. This is so expensive, even just one long term ill employee can make a company go out of business, and even huge companies have a big burden of people who do this.
The number of ex-youth services kids (who were removed from their parents against their will) who have given this system as a reason for their suicide is in the double digits now.
Neither Belgium, nor the Netherlands, have anything remotely resembling UBI. And that people avoid this system has nothing to do with inherent willingness to work.
Erem
8 hours ago
I think you are reproducing in your own words the exact point the author was trying to make
yen223
8 hours ago
It's legit funny how often this occurs. We just like to argue it seems
ElProlactin
8 hours ago
I don't read that at all in anything he wrote.
Erem
8 hours ago
> Until there's an alternative system that allows people to have their basic needs met without working, unemployment is a problem, and even if you had that system, we have no idea whether or not the masses will be content enough to stay sane and peaceful.
I read the author's post as a paean to letting people who can't contribute above the ever raising bar just exist securely as they please, rather than make whole countries suffer in the attempt to employ them.
You didn't get the same thing? Let me reread it
jochem9
6 hours ago
I also got out of the article that we shouldn't let people work who shouldn't work (the water as a resource vs labor as a resource comparison). That implies those people are provided for in a different way than wages.
andsoitis
8 hours ago
> Until there's an alternative system that allows people to have their basic needs met without working, unemployment is a problem
Imagine there’s a ratio of that category of people that’s a more optimal ratio than zero.
ElProlactin
8 hours ago
The big question though is: can you have a society in which one group works and another doesn't? Ostensibly, the working group would be the ones who create and/or own all the value that supports the ones who don't.
At least in the US, given how many people complain about the "welfare state", it seems like there's bound to be resentment on both sides.
And that still leaves the question of whether people will feel good enough about the situation to accept it. I could imagine a world in which some segment of the population has sufficient UBI to live a decent life and you'd still lots of people who felt something was missing. Especially in a world dominated by social media, I just don't see large numbers of people on UBI sitting around and writing novels, painting beautiful pictures, making music, etc. I see a lot of people who are restless and unfulfilled.
xtiansimon
3 hours ago
> “…bunch of unhappy people who are poor and have nothing to do is probably not good for a country's well-being.”
Which I believe lead directly to T in p45.
I have family in WI and it’s about jobs. What’s more, they’re tired of ‘costal elites’ and ‘we live in a global economy; nothing we can do about offshoring.’