Show HN: A Monte Carlo model that called the World Cup finalists 2 weeks ago

4 pointsposted 12 hours ago
by fabioricardo7

3 Comments

trencedamp

3 hours ago

Did it confidently predict the same finalists consistently in every iteration? Or did it sometimes give different answers?

fabioricardo7

3 hours ago

Thanks for your question. It's Monte Carlo, so individual simulated tournaments produce all sorts of champions, Argentina wins ~28% of the 100k iterations. What's stable is the aggregate: Argentina and Spain consistently come out as the two highest-probability teams, and that barely moves across different seeds.