gdudeman
an hour ago
If you haven't seen the chart from the UK study, I highly recommend checking it out: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-shingles-vaccine-and-re...
When the vaccine came out in the UK, they included a hard age cutoff: Above a certain age, you weren't eligible. Below that age, you were eligible.
They looked at the probability of a dementia diagnosis over the 7 years after the vaccine was introduced.
People who were born in the "can get the vaccine" group have markedly lower rates of dementia. People in the "too old" group have higher rates. It's cut and dry. The researchers didn't separate out the people who actually got the vaccine.
It's one of those studies where you don't even need to look at the p-value to see the difference between the cohorts.
atleastoptimal
16 minutes ago
So much of neurodegeneration has turned out to be the effects of latent viruses in the body. HSV-1 is correlated with developing dementia along with many respiratory viruses.
leereeves
an hour ago
I think I'm failing to understand your subtext. Obviously older people have higher rates of dementia. A study reporting that doesn't tell us anything about the effect of the vaccine.
gdudeman
an hour ago
Sorry - the older group has higher rates of dementia than the younger group when they reach the same age - so when they reach 75, they're more likely to have dementia.
leereeves
42 minutes ago
I see what you mean, there's a clear gap in the fitted (regression) lines, suggesting the trend of dementia with age is different in the two groups.
But I wonder if that's just a statistical artifact. The overall trend looks the same in both groups if you ignore a couple points (ages) on either side of introducing the vaccine.
A single line appears to fit all the points well, except two points on either side of the divide.