> AI companies have a runway. The question isn't whether they can fly, but whether they have enough runway to get liftoff.

This misses I think what is becoming my thesis is that competition from each other and open source models drive both costs and profits down enough that it ends up becoming a feature of a company with an existing cash flow (google, Microsoft) but is not a business that is sustainable in its own. So no, the AI companies may never fly.

Clock 4: Generative AI is energy intensive.

Whoever can build out low cost (aka "renewable") energy first will have a marketplace advantage in terms of AI --- and other energy intensive activities such as manufacturing.

There is no real secret to building LLMs or renewable energy. How to do it is well known. So it is unbelievably stupid to invest in one but not the other.

https://earthenergylog.com/articles/china-renewable-dominanc...

https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/07/10/1119941/china-en...

If your concern is how to prepare yourself financially in the near-medium term, then "is genAI a bubble" is exactly the right question. If it is, then we need to be prepared for the shock when it pops.

The question of whether or not the tech is revolutionary in a deep sense is an entirely different one from whether or not we're in a bubble. Both can be true at the same time.