Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction markets app

66 pointsposted 5 hours ago
by dgellow

67 Comments

autoexec

4 hours ago

He wants to collect and profit from insider info by joining in on the newest unregulated gambling scheme. I'm sure plenty of cheaters and suckers will be happy to make him more money.

NikxDa

4 hours ago

I can‘t help but wonder what goes on inside of the upper management of these big companies, and why nobody ever stops for a moment to think about whether what they are up to does any good for the end users beyond making more money.

But then again, this is very on brand for Meta/Zuck, so I‘m not surprised.

darth_avocado

4 hours ago

Zuckerberg could’ve made a YouTube competitor or a Netflix competitor given that he already has a platform for video sharing and an ads infrastructure. But I guess the guys at the top are so smart that they don’t bother themselves when copying ideas to actually copy something that makes sense.

twostorytower

4 hours ago

They tried. Facebook Watch. It's a total disaster.

solid_fuel

4 hours ago

> Zuckerberg could’ve made a YouTube competitor or a Netflix competitor given that he already has a platform for video sharing and an ads infrastructure

Facebook has no content production experience though, and when they do dip their toes into that market its via AI slop (like their official AI accounts on instagram). I think this is because they don't value the human element of art at all.

They would be entirely reliant other content providers, which is a rough place to be in when you have to deal with actual studios and not just independent creators. Independent creators are easier for Facebook to exploit since they are usually small operations and dependent on facebook/instagram for market reach.

dgellow

4 hours ago

Youtube isn't really known to be highly profitable. I'm also not sure people would go to a Facebook YouTube when the normal YouTube exists

darth_avocado

4 hours ago

Brother, YouTube is quite literally a money printing machine. I don’t know where you’re getting information from.

dgellow

4 hours ago

YouTube has a lot of revenue, profit isn't known as far as I'm aware. Alphabet doesn't report YouTube earnings separately, and when they were still sharing that information it was a pretty large amount of losses IIRC. But if you have sources I'm happy to change my mind

JsonDemWitOster

3 hours ago

Cliché cynic's comment: the end users they are concerned about are the companies they sell ads to. If you're not that, tough luck.

orsenthil

4 hours ago

> why nobody ever stops for a moment

What, you want to get fired?

rusk

4 hours ago

51% shareholding he’s free to make all the mistakes he wants

ElProlactin

5 hours ago

Polymarket: "Trade on anything."

Kalshi: "Trade the Future."

Meta Arena: "They 'trust me.' Dumb f^^ks."

throwa356262

4 hours ago

Hopefully it's the same geniuses that implemented his metaverse thingy.

tmule

4 hours ago

Hope so (ex-Meta, and hold a couple of million dollars of their stock, but quite dislike the company).

sometimelurker

3 hours ago

I wonder how/if they'll use AI for this. maybe this would give them access to some very highquality pretrain data (like who made which bet on what at what time), which I can definitely imagine them needing. I've heard they have a lot of spare compute they run experiments on, and if this goes well for them maybe they could make a really good prediction bot

user

4 hours ago

[deleted]

cdrnsf

4 hours ago

This will fail, he'll throw money at Kalshi and or Polymarket and, if he acquires either, chase some sort of regulatory capture scheme.

nertzy

4 hours ago

I just directed my cats to make a cryptocurrency.

Ancalagon

5 hours ago

Holy mimic batman - Mark, its ok to have a little of your own innovation and not copycat nor buy every single good idea.

darth_avocado

4 hours ago

> not copycat nor buy every single good idea.

I don’t know if I’ll call Kalshi and Polymarket “good ideas”.

aeve890

4 hours ago

I bet (pun intended) that's pretty good for the owners pockets

ahstilde

4 hours ago

Facebook innovation is their ads algo. They copy existing consumer success (which is incredibly difficult to create), and then execute it incredibly well.

dgellow

4 hours ago

> and then execute it incredibly well

...sometimes

soperj

4 hours ago

How did he come up with Facebook?

ben_w

4 hours ago

He copied the analog thing of the same name in his university that was taking too long to digitise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_book

soperj

4 hours ago

There's a whole movie about it. He was employed to create a social media platform, and ended up stealing the code to do it for himself instead.

user

4 hours ago

[deleted]

gowld

4 hours ago

It was already digitized. He wanted to make a version without security and privacy protections.

He also copied Friendster.

user

4 hours ago

[deleted]

Aboutplants

4 hours ago

So many baby boomers are about to lose their savings. Meta knows their bread is buttered by the 55+ age group and capitalizing on the vulnerable social media addicted elders will be extremely profitable.

Zigurd

4 hours ago

My university admissions interview took place next to an old tech nerd's model train layout. Today, the same kind of person would be up all night posting about trans people on X. I blame a lot of our current problems on the decline of model trains and stamp collecting. You are spot on about social media addiction among the olds.

etothet

4 hours ago

I've always felt that Mark Zuckerberg got lucky with Facebook and that he has no real lasting talent as a technologist or visionary. He seems to attempt to chase the latest "it" thing and has very few original ideas that actual stick long-term. He's quite the charlatan.

dang

3 hours ago

Please don't post personal attacks to HN, regardless of $Person.

A comment like this does not gratify curiosity, only indignation, and we're here for the former not the latter.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

sometimelurker

3 hours ago

um, I'm not sure exactly why what motivated that comment, but its extremely possible to believe every word there from a purely logical perspective, as opposed to an emotional one. yes we shouldn't post personal attacks, but saying 'Zuckerberg got lucky' and 'seems to chase the latest "it" thing' doesn't need to qualify as a personal attack. these can just be normal observations. see I wouldn't say the same things about sama, because I don't think they're true, and I dislike the both of them.

as for the newsguidelines, I think it "gratifies one's intellectual curiosity" to think about what motivates tech ceos and talk about how they do things

etothet

2 hours ago

I definitely didn't mean this as a personal attack.

alberth

4 hours ago

While I know criticizing Meta is popular, I'm not sure I'd agree with above.

Social networks didn't really exist before The Facebook. Understanding the potential market that could be created and turning down a $1B acquisition from Yahoo 20-years ago, at the time, seemed insane.

Also making the shift to mobile, when people thought that would be the death of FB is a remarkable story.

Identifying to acquire WhatsApp & Instagram, both laughed at when bought for the acquisition price at that time, now massive businesses for Meta (and their market cap value).

Meta AI glasses are surprisingly popular and growing. And more...

Note: I have no affiliation with Meta (not now or in the past)

---

EDIT: Many people I see underestimate what it takes to build a business. It is the classic “I could have built that in a weekend” critique. Maybe, but the product is only like 10% of the problem. 90% of the work (and hard part) is execution.

blahblaher

4 hours ago

That's not true though. Social network sites existed, just not so "centralized" and "viral". Facebook created a simple and more user-friendly interface. WhatsApp as it understand, does not make much if any money. Instagram is a cash cow due.

They have released some good open source technology, but as the OP said, Meta hasn't much going for it apart from addictive apps for showing ads

karmakurtisaani

3 hours ago

They also had the right audience to build the early adopters: top university students.

bellgrove

an hour ago

Social networks definitely existed, they just didn’t gain the same momentum/popularity as Facebook. As others have pointed out there was MySpace - but even before that there was Friendster and Asian Avenue. I’m sure there were probably another one or two.

That’s not to take anything away from the success of early Facebook, but the idea of a social network was not created by fb.

sc68cal

4 hours ago

> Social networks didn't really exist before The Facebook.

You never heard of MySpace?

etothet

2 hours ago

Those are fair points, though I didn't say he wasn't a good business person. I could probably concede that he is, but I don't see him as the tech visionary he's often propped up to be.

JsonDemWitOster

3 hours ago

> Many people I see underestimate what it takes to build a business. It is the classic “I could have built that in a weekend” critique.

My dude, no one in your reply thread is making that claim. We bristling at the claim that "Social networks didn't really exist before The Facebook". Unless you're saying FB's innovation is its business model and is what made it dominate, well, your original statement just didn't substantiate that.

IMO, the only thing I'd credit Zuck for is sticking (at least at the start) to his singular vision of what a social network should be; first it was just open for .edu emails, then when it was released more broadly their product roadmap stuck to fostering a social environment online.

And then he lost that vision. I'd say it was circa Cambridge Analytica when engagement---often ragebait because it gave them more and stronger of that sweet sweet monetizable ad signals---replaced fostering an online social environment. Others would say it's the algorithmic news feed. Either way, losing that vision started FB's demise.

IME, FB was best when it was a supplement and not a replacement for real life. FB had value to me because we could plan parties there and even keep in touch after, get that social buzz going for a little while longer. But it was _never_ the party.

But their recent efforts---Metaverse, all the AI crap---has all the hallmakrs of trying to replace real life. They now want to be the party but good luck with that. Judging by the blowback and lack of adoption consumers see what they're up to a mile away. Zuck has no idea how to stay relevant so now we have a platform more concerned with its market cap than having actual utility.

Groxx

4 hours ago

>Social networks didn't really exist before The Facebook.

Seriously? Of course they did. An easy counter-example is MySpace, which launched several months before Facebook's very first appearance as a Hot Or Not mimic (which predates Zuck by 3 years), and had many millions more users for years (especially while FB was restricted to colleges).

Major competition and a lot of money was going into social media around then (and for a couple years prior), FB is just the eventual winner.

rapsey

4 hours ago

> Social networks didn't really exist before The Facebook

Social networks were all the rage. He executed the best of all and had the right strategy to build the user base.

gowld

4 hours ago

Insane how? Google had already done it, and it's pretty clear that if someone wants to buy for $1B, it might be worth more than $1B.

Zigurd

4 hours ago

He built a hell of a machine for buying political/cultural influence or filling your sales funnel, no matter the dubiousness of your product, with pinpoint precision. Doing that takes vision and talent, and extremely flexible ethics.

glimshe

4 hours ago

I've never seen him saying anything particularly smart or insightful. My impression is that he has moderately above average intelligence and entrepreneurship. If he wasn't at the right place at the right time, he would be yet another founder of a random startup.

nosioptar

4 hours ago

I've never seen him say or do anything particularly human. If I believed in such things, I'd think he was some kind of souless drone sent here by aliens/demons/etc to destroy humanity.

tmule

4 hours ago

Your impression about his intelligence is way off. Mark was part of the study for mathematically precocious youth, which has a math cutoff at the 1/10K rarity. He also has ambition at the same level. What’s probably missing, of late, is good taste and judgment.

drivebyhooting

4 hours ago

That becomes more clear by the day.

Zuck has no insight. His sole ambition is to be rich and taken seriously.

chrisss395

4 hours ago

Thought the same thing even before I saw your comment!

fragmede

4 hours ago

In what way has he claimed special expertise to deceive others for financial gain, as befitting the word charlatan? He is the CEO of Facebook and we're told to not like Facebook, but when has he claimed special expertise to deceive others for financial gain? He's one of the richest people in the world and has been using that money to do things he wants to do. I don't think he's ever claimed to eg be a PhD AI researcher and for people to give him money because of a made up claim like that. People give Facebook money and it ends up in his pockets and he does things with that.

oulipo2

4 hours ago

Same for Elon and Paypal

IshKebab

4 hours ago

I dunno he made a few very wise purchases (Instagram, WhatsApp). But yeah he hasn't had a single first party hit apart from Facebook, and the Metaverse is 100% emperor's new clothes. Even worse than Alexa's "people will buy things through a janky voice interface right"?

sjsdaiuasgdia

4 hours ago

This is basically the case with most of the tech billionaires. They have one, maybe two real successes and it's mostly inertia after that.