kingstnap
3 hours ago
Even if it drops to 1/2 its IPO price ($855B valuation) that still massively overpaying for it.
What do they think is gonna come from this SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor amalgamation? Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?
bwhiting2356
37 minutes ago
what's the point of being vertically integrated if they're just going to rent out their compute (https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ai-startup-re...). This signals to me they don't have an internal use for it
reverius42
21 minutes ago
You could say the same about AWS circa 2011 though.
thewhitetulip
4 minutes ago
AWS did not need to buy excess inventory from Amazon because the sales were down
They also didn't need to buy another company lead by Bezos because ot was going cost him very much if certain conditions are met
DoesntMatter22
20 minutes ago
It signals to me that they like money and people are willing to give it to them at unprecedented levels, and probably still have plenty of capacity for themselves afterwards. Why would you not accept billions of dollars per month?
darth_avocado
an hour ago
Don’t talk about fair valuations. Some people will say “who decides what anything is worth anyway”? Let people do what they want. If they lose their money they signed up for it.
Grombobulous
an hour ago
I think the bigger issue is that oligarchs have gotten so powerful that they can just write down the valuation they want and the market will just agree with it blindly.
The issue isn’t that investors will lose their money, the issue is that in some cases like Tesla they never do. The oligarchs are propped up by their own power over the behavior or the market — a power which is disproportionally larger than the objective value their companies bring to the economy.
SpaceX is a company with the same revenue as Dick’s Sporting Goods.
DoesntMatter22
16 minutes ago
I don't get the complaint about Tesla. It's profitable, has little debt and 40 billion in the bank. What sort of "Power over the behavior of the market" do they exert? Like they can force people to buy their cars.
Space X has the most sophisticated vehicle ever created by man. Dicks does not. If you are only looking at revenue then sure, but that would be silly, you have to look at what the potential in a company is not it's current revenue, if not then looking at Blockbuster in 2008 would seem like a great investment compared to Netflix which didn't have much revenue.
jojobas
an hour ago
I don't think most people signed up for it by just having some money in their pension funds.
justanotherjoe
an hour ago
Something like the plan in the anime Jormungand maybe? (https://jormungand.fandom.com/wiki/Jormungand)
mgh2
2 hours ago
They are buying their time (6 months) before being included in the S&P500s, causing another inevitable surge in forced "demand".
opinion-is-bad
an hour ago
It’ll be at least a year before they are eligible to join the S&P500. They also need to become profitable.
Ancalagon
an hour ago
Nit: the phrase is “biding their time” FYI
I agree with your statement overall.
lokar
an hour ago
Or “buying time”
tialaramex
an hour ago
"Buying time" is an ordinary phrase in English but, it doesn't make a lot of sense here because there'd be some activity SpaceX is doing to "buy time". If you're just waiting that doesn't "buy time".
lokar
an hour ago
I think they just blended together in the posters mind
helsinkiandrew
an hour ago
In the next 6 months another 45%-50% of Space X stock is unlocked, increasing the amount of shares on the market ~10 fold.
Although many will be long term believers who won’t sell. I can’t see how this couldn’t deflate the share price further
BobbyTables2
an hour ago
That’s at least something to look forward to!
wolvoleo
3 hours ago
> Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?
Now that I'd invest in :)
rchaud
3 hours ago
Pentagon contracts.
lokar
an hour ago
Until MAGA is out of power
rlt
28 minutes ago
SpaceX is critical to national security and NASA. A new administration isn’t going to change that.
thereitgoes456
2 hours ago
So? It’ll never pay dividends..
qq66
41 minutes ago
One theory is that Elon Musk ends up being able to build AI datacenters faster and more cost effectively than anyone else, which seems plausible given the success of Tesla Gigafactories.
dgellow
38 minutes ago
That doesn’t justify the valuation in any way
SilverElfin
3 hours ago
Morningstar has the most conservative valuation as far as I know, at $780B
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacex-what-investors-nee...
gymbeaux
an hour ago
The plan is simply for insiders to offload their bags (overvalued shares) to retail investors, like the folk who frequent the wallstreetbets subreddit and do all their “investing” on Robinhood. This speaks to the larger trend of the lower and middle class apparently giving up on any plans to retire- and it’s understandable as the federal minimum wage has never been so disconnected from the cost of living, plus inflation, plus the current job market being universally terrible (even for software engineers), et al.
It’s worth noting that this is nothing new. I’m reminded of Virgin Galactic, another “space company” that was heavily speculated on. Predictably, insiders like Richard Branson himself sold a large number of shares (well into the millions of dollars) ahead of the inevitable “dump” where the share price fell around 75% in a matter of weeks. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) entered the Nasdaq via SPAC - Special Purpose Acquisition Group - essentially a company whose sole purpose is to acquire a private company, thereby effectively making the company public. Why wouldn’t Virgin Galactic just go public? Why go through a SPAC? The short answer is “to bypass regulations.”
OpenInsider is an excellent website that makes it easy to see when insiders buy or sell a stock, and the most common pattern is insiders dumping their shares in overvalued companies. We saw it when Zoom and Crispr and a few others shot up several hundred percentage points during COVID. C-suite and board members made out like bandits. Those weren’t even SPACs, those were just companies that people were foolish enough to speculate on.
Finally I want to bring attention to Robinhood, the stock trading platform that eliminated commission on trades from all brokerages - Schwab, Fidelity, Merrill Lynch, et al- by making it incredibly quick and easy (and free) to buy and sell stocks. They opened this Pandora’s Box, though I suppose it was bound to happen eventually- brokerages charged $7 per trade (sometimes more) and obviously for the college student who wants to throw $20 at Amazon stock… losing $7 in and then $7 again on the way out makes no sense. Now for anyone giving Robinhood the benefit of the doubt- their evil was (I think) absolutely confirmed when they unveiled a new feature- you can now trade OPTIONS with your retirement account. Options are essentially gambling, so to enable people to throw away their retirement on gambling is truly vile.
TalkingCodeMonk
an hour ago
Agreed. More importantly, this long documented history of massive recurring multi-billion dollar fraud and theft – mostly from domestic and international retirement funds – indicates that America is essentially, for all intents and purposes, a plutocratic dictatorship with the illusion of democracy. Ticking a box every few years, when all your options are pre-positioned to continue a criminal status-quo, is neither "democracy" or "by/for the people". This systemic corruption did not materialise out of thin air recently. It has arguably been present all of history (in every economy). It's just accelerated to psychopathic levels of obscene gratuity over the last 2 decades.
This is why I've voted with my wallet the only way I can, by moving all of my investments (including retirement) out of the American market. The rot is far too deep. The few bad apples have entirely spoiled the bunch. I'm not under any illusion other markets will be safe from the fallout, or that I'll make better returns long term, but I do not care. I'm voting the only way I can given the current system. If I'd moved my investments earlier, when I came to this conclusion, I would have actually made significantly larger gains over the last couple of years.
OutOfHere
an hour ago
Options is gambling only for the vast majority who're inexperienced with them or don't have a sound theory for them. I can trade them in my setup with over a 95% success rate, perhaps even 99%. Of course I am not going to type out my theory here.
Such an overgeneralization ruined your otherwise reasonable comment. Always stop when you are winning.
jimmygrapes
2 hours ago
I know they broke up but I can't help but feel this is related: (Grimes - We Appreciate Power)
paytonjjones
2 hours ago
[dead]