$500k is a vast overestimation. For massive concurrency at FP8 or even BF16 maybe.

NVFP4 at reasonable speeds (~120 tok/s) and concurrency is possible at a $80/90k figure with today's prices, maybe even less. That buys you 6 RTX 6000 PRO Blackwells, a decent CPU and motherboard, power supply. 576gb of VRAM.

You could do it for under $50k if you're OK with 40 tok/s decode, ~1200 tok/s prefill.

With 2 wouldn’t have good results. Ideal range for coding is at least Q8.

I have the RAM, but not the VRAM. What kind of speed/tps could you expect from a 3090 with 24GBs of RAM? I am somewhat tempted to pick a GPU with 24GBs of RAM.

If we didn't have a RAM/GPU shortage right now they would be more nervous than they are. But as it is very few people are going to be able to afford a rig that can run this model effectively. That's probably not going to change for several more years yet. I think if the Z.ai folks decide to come out with a flash version of GLM-5.2 specialized for coding that came in about about 80B params, then the US frontier labs would probably be more worried. Overall, the Chinese AI companies have been showing the way to do the same amount with less (sometimes much less) and as that trend continues it's going to make the frontier labs worried - but even the Chinese AI companies are going to want to protect their moat by not releasing capable models that are significantly smaller than their current flagship models. AliBaba Qwen seems to be there now - it's gotten mighty quiet from them lately - their latest 395B model is just too large for most folks to run at home and they don't seem to be making any noises about releasing smaller ones this time around.

I don't think so. I could easily see a company deciding to host and run these models for their own development. If you have a dev team of about 10 people, a one time $50k investment in an LLM server has to be pretty tempting. Unlimited tokens, decent performance, upgrade options, and potential product integrations.

For companies wanting LLMs in their products in general, I have to think going the local llm route is even more tempting. Somewhat dumb models are more than good enough for a lot of the things people are integrating LLMs into their products.

The RAM requirements are still pretty painful.

The hardware requirements to run this locally are still very high. Seems far enough off mainstream for those companies not to be too worried yet.

Are you talking about Medusa Halo? It's going to support up to 256GB unified memory (up from 128GB for Strix Halo and 192GB for Gorgon Halo). That might just be barely enough to run a 2-bit quant GLM-5.2. It will expand memory bus to 384-bits, vs. 256-bits for Strix Halo which will help with bandwidth (projected to be around 500 GB/sec). But don't expect Madusa Halo-based machines to appear until sometime in 2028.

The other way this could go is that Z.ai could decide to release a smaller model targeted towards coding. They've done that before (GLM-4.7-Flash had 30B params). It would be great if they decided to release something in the 80B-100B param range. Something that size would easily run in a current Strix Halo system.

> I am very excited for local LLMs I think we may have GPT 5.5-xhigh level of performance for under 2000 EUR

We are maybe 10 years off that.

RAM prices are going to continue to increase for the next 2 years at least.

Even putting that aside it's currently around 40-70,000 EUR to run this with a FP8 quantization (which you need to get close to maximum performance).

To actually get GPT 5.5-xhigh performance in the real world you need more headroom to support things like subagents (which will fill up your KV cache).

I like local models but realism is important. The sweet spot for the next 3 years will continue to be ~35B MoE models. They might match GPT 5.5-xhigh for chat-style problems but not for coding.

"GLM 5.2 is just shy of GPT 5.4"... If your running the full model. As in have 750 (FP8) to 1.5TB(FP16) of memory available.

Do not mix the benchmark results of GLM 5.2 FP16/FP8 with FP4 or FP2.

* FP4 will mean a accuracy loss of about 3%. Not noticeable but more chance for mistakes.

* FP2 ... what is what most people are able to run at home, for a "reasonable" price. Your looking at over 17% loss in accuracy.

At that point, your running at less then claude-sonnet-4.6, as the issues compound with accuracy losses. And reasonable priced is still in the ~ $5000 range (192GB + GPU 32GB active/kv cache system).

For that price your using a Codex / Claude Pro subscription for the next 4+ years with better models (by default), let alone with a FP2 GLM 5.2 version. And your looking at < 10 fps. A MacStudio with 512GB will net you 18 a 20fps+ with FP4, but ... i mean, those used to be $10.000.

Unfortunately the local hardware cost is a major issue for running large models like that.

At full quantization GLM 5.2 may be close to GPT 5.4. But at Q2 or whatever one needs in order to run it on a pro-sumer device it will be worse.

Also I m not sure where you are getting the under 2k value. I bought a Framework desktop 128GB last year and my setup was around 2.7k. The same setup now sells for around 4.7k.

Even with upcoming AI Max+ PRO 495 we are capped with 192GB, so no...

The AMD 395 supports up to 128GB unified RAM. So still not enough even at 1-bit quant unfortunately.