6gvONxR4sf7o
7 hours ago
The framing they use is hilarious and their little graphic is perfect. The risk of harm doesn't go down, but the reward goes up, so the harm just becomes the cost of doing business, justified by the reward. So as the reward gets higher and higher, the amount of harm they're willing to justify goes up. Feels like society in a nutshell.
esikich
6 hours ago
Sure. You start a PC repair business. At first, losing a stick of RAM or frying someone's motherboard is super costly when you are doing 10 a week. But once you're doing 1000, that's pretty damn good and easily covered. When you have more tools, velocity, and whatnot, the proportions change.
altmanaltman
4 hours ago
Wouldn't you lose multiple sticks or fry multiple motherboards as you scale and do 1000? If you're frying 1 at 10, that means you're frying 100 at 1000. Your costs etc will scale as well unless you actually lower the risk/reward ratio, no?
kuboble
3 hours ago
I think the point is that at small scale a single accident poses a risk of ruin to your small operations.
chrncirurp
2 hours ago
> I think the point is that at small scale a single accident poses a risk of ruin to your small operations.
At big scale, a single big accident poses a risk to ruin your big operations.
soundworlds
3 hours ago
If I understand this correctly, Anthropic's argument is now "yes this will blow up some of your infrastructure, but it will be worth it"
The problem is that no one has been able to prove that it is actually worth the cost. That is a very fragile assumption.
solenoid0937
5 hours ago
That's how decisions are made IRL. Risk/reward is a thing.
vrganj
2 hours ago
This is risk to us and reward for them though.
andai
6 hours ago
Yeah I was thinking about Simon Wilson's "lethal trifecta"[0] in the context of OpenClaw style "general purpose" AI agents, where people just gave it access to their full hard drive, gmail account, etc.
I was thinking you can't make the chance of catastrophic failure zero (we still hear about "Claude deleted my home folder"), but you can definitely limit the blast radius.
You can't get the risk to zero. But the opportunity cost of not playing the game is rising. So you accept some level of risk.
My personal take here is "why screw around with containers and virtualization when a used ThinkPad is $50". Just give it its own machine. Then it can blow it up all it wants. (Or a $3 VPS, as the case may be :)
[0] The lethal trifecta for AI agents: private data, untrusted content, and external communication - https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/16/the-lethal-trifecta/
e12e
15 minutes ago
Wiping out a VM, server or workstation should not really be a problem - just restore from backup.
Silently corrupting files, that goes undiscovered until after backup window closes, and data exfiltration are the immediate, serious risks.
zaptheimpaler
5 hours ago
I tried the VPS briefly, it didn't really solve anything for me. The personal assistant agent is only as useful as the data & tools it has, that's where the real risk is. Separate box gives you isolated FS but docker also does that very easily.
koolba
6 hours ago
> Then it can blow it up all it wants. (Or a $3 VPS, as the case may be :)
Just make sure it doesn’t have ssh access to any other machines!
chrisweekly
5 hours ago
Is a used Thinkpad really a viable part of your AI workflow? (And is that really a better solution than eg smolmachines microvms?)
altmanaltman
4 hours ago
> But the opportunity cost of not playing the game is rising
The opportunity cost of not using OpenClaw? I don't think it's that foundational yet that there is an opportunity cost to not using it. Most people have no purpose for a general-purpose AI both in their personal lives and at work, there is no sense trying out OpenClaw when you don't even know what it'll do.
charcircuit
6 hours ago
All of ecommerce is built on top of encryption with a non 0 chance of being cracked. The risk is much smaller than the benefit so people are willing to use it and then deal with whatever potential fraud comes from encryption being broken separately.
Technically a merchant could require meeting in person to exchange a OTP to avoid this and make it 0 but it is not worth it and you will get out competed by other businesses willing to take on a marginally higher amount of risk to unlock a lot of utility for the user.
keithnz
6 hours ago
but no matter what you do this is the tradeoff you are making. Different people have different tolerances for that balance, hence why I'm happy to watch people on youtube in wingsuits and not do it myself. Of course in this new AI world, quantifying the probability and scale of harm is hard/not fully known. We are trying to mitigate risks with AI, but who knows, could be one misstep away from plummeting off a cliff.
xp84
6 hours ago
I’m a usual booster of AI (others have accused me of being completely in the bag for the clankers) and even I agree fully. These yahoos would clearly give Claude the nuclear launch codes or enough access to copy its full model into the wild if the supposed “reward” promised was large enough.
ronsor
7 hours ago
This is how humans weigh most decisions in practice.
7e
6 hours ago
They don’t consider risk of ruin and that is where this calculus falls apart. The reward does not reduce the risk of ruin, which increases with blast radius. YOLO!