fluidcruft
5 hours ago
It's really concerning given how the indexes are changing rules to fast-track SpaceX being forced into index funds. S&P is also working on updates to S&P 500 to force it down everyone's throats quickly and algorithmically.
epistasis
4 hours ago
I'm usually a Boglehead, with some exceptions, and one exception I'd love is some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX for the next few years. I'm sure there's some combo of options that would do it.
Probably finding an ESG-focused ETF would do it. ESG basically meant "good governance, we follow laws" which translated into better governed public companies that therefore had better returns, as one would expect. Really weird how it was politicized into something entirely different...
bryanlarsen
3 hours ago
There's an ETF for everything out there. (There are more ETF's than stocks). There'll be a large market for "S&P500 without SpaceX" et al, so it's seems likely somebody will fill it. It probably will have to use a worse name because of the S&P trademark.
P.S. Here's an example of S&P500 without the magnificent 7 https://www.defianceetfs.com/xmag/
Galanwe
4 hours ago
> I'd love is some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX
You can just short SpaceX of an amount equivalent to its share of your SP500 holdings. You will have to pay borrowing costs though, but on something that liquid it will be very small.
BJones12
4 hours ago
Yeah. For comparison, SpaceX will be maybe half the size of MSFT. MSFT is 7.4% of the SP500 index, so for a $1,000,000 portfolio if you were to short MSFT you'd pay 0.25% on the value of that 7.4%, or $185/year.
So eliminating SpaceX exposure will cost you $100 per million of your SP500 ETF per year, or so.
parliament32
4 hours ago
Shorts have unlimited risk. Buying a put is risk-defined and probably a better strategy.
BJones12
4 hours ago
No, because the unlimited risk of shorting is balanced (hedged) by the unlimited upside of holding the same number of shares via the ETF.
jocaal
4 hours ago
You cannot however sell only SpaceX shares from your ETF to cover your short's losses. So due to liquidity issues I wouldn't recommend your strategy.
Galanwe
4 hours ago
What are you talking about? You don't need to touch anything about your ETF. You just have to short a single name on the side.
Also there is no liquidity issue, we're talking SP500 names here, you'll pay GC, which should be around 25bps as the other comment mentions.
BobaFloutist
2 hours ago
They're saying if the stock goes up and you get margin-called on the short, you have to sell index shares, you can't just annihilate the Tesla shares with the anti-Tesla shares and walk away.
Galanwe
an hour ago
That depends if you trade cash or synthetic.
I think most people trade synthetic, just because it's faster and you don't have to wait for settlements, but maybe that is different if you trade onshore (I am a foreign investor).
Anyway if you are synthetic your margin is most likely shared between shorts and long on the same instrument, so no, you wouldn't be called.
ls612
3 hours ago
We aren’t talking about penny stocks we are talking about a tech giant. At the scales that any ordinary investor is operating at there will be no liquidity issues with shorting it and if it is in your index fund the short and long positions will directly offset if you size it correctly leading you to have net zero exposure to SpaceX.
parliament32
3 hours ago
Yeah you're not wrong. I didn't think about it that way because you can't really break something out of an ETF basket, and you also don't control the ETF basket, but if you think those risks are minimal it's probably fine to just compare dollars-to-dollars.
Personally I would still probably go with the long put strategy unless the price difference is exorbitant.
Galanwe
3 hours ago
> also don't control the ETF basket
The ETF is this case follows the index, so there's really no surprise.
> I would still probably go with the long put strategy
Just, don't. There is a world of complexity between a simple short, and entering an option contract with non linear pnl.
parliament32
3 hours ago
The ETF that seemingly arbitrarily changes its rules? In such a short time frame too? This change is going proposal to implementation in.. what, two weeks total? I don't know about you but I don't keep up on this stuff unless it hits the news like this one.
You are not entering a contract with a long put. You are buying a contract that, if you want, you can just let expire with no obligation to do anything. It's effectively simple insurance (as opposed to a short position, which is an actual liability, which will eat you alive in exceptional circumstances).
Galanwe
2 hours ago
> You are not entering a contract with a long put
Yes you are, and options are complicated. Actually, the mere fact that you think they are "simple insurance" is enough proof to me that you probably don't understand it enough to safely buy one.
> You are buying a contract
Oh right, you've bought a PUT, now the fun part: you have to manage your position/exposure, could you enlighten me how you do that?
Could you explain me why buying a SpaceX PUT in a high IV regime (e.g. soon after IPO) will have it drop 40% when the IV decreases after 1 month, even though price moved in my favor? It should be simple, it's just a simple insurance product right?
Seriously. Someone, likely not super financially literate, ask a simple question about how to neutralize a stock exposure, and your answer is to advise buying options? Just stop.
parliament32
40 minutes ago
Spicy.
Look, I think you're missing my point a little bit. Let's simplify it to risk, since that's what kicked off this conversation.
Your pension or whatever holds an ETF that (soon) contains some SpaceX shares. You buy a put option on SpaceX direct. What's the absolute worst thing that could happen?
Your pension or whatever holds an ETF that (soon) contains some SpaceX shares. You short sell a SpaceX share. What's the absolute worst thing that could happen?
Galanwe
4 hours ago
It's not just a short, it's a portfolio of X short + X long. It's effectively canceling perfectly.
joelthelion
2 hours ago
I've sold all my stocks. My reasoning is that if AI stocks go bust, they will take the global stock market with them.
parliament32
4 hours ago
> some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX
I think it's less complicated than you'd think.. just buy LEAPS puts proportional to your exposure.
daft_pink
4 hours ago
LEAPS are very expensive.
parliament32
3 hours ago
Because they're long-term, yes. It'll really come down to how much you're willing to pay for monthly Elon-shenanigans-insurance.
I'm very interested in seeing how the market prices these options after the IPO.
jakub_g
4 hours ago
One annoying thing is that those "non-standard" ETF variants have much higher management costs than basic S&P500 / All World ETFs.
nothercastle
4 hours ago
Dimension funds aren’t bad
xenospn
4 hours ago
Stock markets are ruled by hype and fomo. Good corporate governance has little to do with returns, unfortunately.
epistasis
4 hours ago
Short term gains are hype and fomo, but if you're holding index funds long like I am, then returns have a lot more to do with performance. And given the lack of hype around ESG, it seems like an exceptional time to buy in to it.
wolvoleo
3 hours ago
That's also the kind of thing that pension funds should be investing in. They shouldn't invest in hypes as they're by definition in for the long haul and eventually hypes always blow.
Sure you can make a lot of money but only if you know when to get out before the crash. And that's something that doesn't gel well with long term investment.
JumpinJack_Cash
4 hours ago
Bro the index is about riding the hype and fomo and when the phenomenon progressively loses track it gets less and less quota
epistasis
4 hours ago
I don't understand the lingo in your comment but my best possible guess is that I disagree vehemently with it.
Long term dollar cost averaging is not about hype and fomo. Overall pricing in equities does vary according to alternative investment routes, which is why I'm diversified into those as well.
Stonks go up. Stonks go down. Averaging over decades, ownership is about owning a share of productive output of a large portion of our entire economy, an amazing restructuring of social relations that presents an amazing opportunity for the common person, unseen throughout the history of humanity.
aNoob7000
5 hours ago
Add Anthropic and OpenAI to the list. Companies that are bleeding money.
Personally, a company should be making money before adding it to the index.
parliament32
5 hours ago
Interestingly, these are the exact rules they're working to overturn: currently, no matter how many stupid accounting tricks you pull off, you need to actually be profitable to be included in the S&P 500.
mohsen1
5 hours ago
There is a market for an S&P 500 ETF without those companies. I'll immediately switch over
rlkf
4 hours ago
You probably want an ETF that follows something like the MSCI USA Ex Mega Cap index then: <https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/758086>
zzleeper
5 hours ago
Let me know if you find one! I'm at a loss. (And even then, if I switch I have to pay $$$ taxes on capital gains)
stouset
5 hours ago
You can sidestep this entirely with a total-market fund like VTSAX/VTI, which hold the entire market and should be more resistant to being gamed.
They’re free-float adjusted so entities like SpaceX are valued only by what’s available on public markets. And Vanguard (and its funds) are owned by its investors, which makes it seem implausible that the rules would be rewritten in a way that would damage investors.
SilverElfin
5 hours ago
VTI lists fast even before these recent changes as I recall. So it’s more vulnerable, not less.
LPisGood
5 hours ago
It may list fast, but it covers many more securities from what I understand so it’s insulated. I think the fact is that any broad market ETF is gonna own at least some piece of a $1 trillion company.
svachalek
4 hours ago
The additional securities it includes are weighted by market cap though. So a total market fund ends up being 80% S&P 500, and even if they add thousands more companies those all fit in the 20% slot.
felixgallo
4 hours ago
well that's the problem, right? There is no justification for a trillion dollar Elon Musk valuation. And he and his investors know this. That's why they're trying to change the rules to dump the stock while it's irrational on every investor in the world. If they really believed in the value of the company, would they be bribing people to scam the index funds?
toomuchtodo
4 hours ago
Indeed, it's like robbing a bank while the bank is holding a party. Except its everyone's portfolios who are invested in the index funds with potential exposure in scope.
High level, it's concerning to observe this unfold while almost every asset class is at its peak and there is no one willing to purchase (office real estate [1] [2], private equity [3], us equities [4], crypto, etc). Late Stage Capital Markets when you've exhausted greater fools available.
[1] Office Real Estate Is Facing ‘a Year of Reckoning’ in 2025 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-12-18/commercia... | https://archive.today/fTPSY - December 18, 2024
[2] Blackstone Is About to Take a 54% Loss on Iconic Seattle Tower - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/blackston... | https://archive.today/fcA8W - May 29, 2026
[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47049024 (citations)
[4] BlackRock Scales Back Equities After ‘Generational’ Earnings [Peak S&P] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/blackrock... | https://archive.today/lMIcH - May 29th, 2026
_delirium
5 hours ago
Any of the direct indexing providers will let you blacklist individual stocks from the index. The intended use is to exclude stocks you hold elsewhere (or receive as stock grants) to avoid causing wash sales, but it can also be easily used to make a custom "S&P 499".
zzleeper
5 hours ago
I'm looking at Schwab (and saw a few others) and couldn't find anything: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/primer-on-wash-sales
I would assume this is not an ETF but sth else?
zparky
5 hours ago
fsckboy
3 hours ago
you can buy S&P 500, and short the component companies you don't like, but caution, this will achieve the solvency you want, but you will likely remain irrational
ngriffiths
4 hours ago
In addition to covering the IPO in general last week, Matt Levine also wrote about this specific question Tuesday[1]:
> Historically index providers were in the business of making these sorts of quality decisions, so that index funds were not forced to buy stocks they didn’t like.
> These rules create some tension between the idea that an index is a list of all the stocks and the idea that an index is a list of all the good stocks. Historically, it didn’t matter all that much: The point of the stock market is to tell you which stocks are good, so a company with a high stock valuation should be a very good company, so it should get a high weighting in both the Index of Good Companies and the Index of All the Companies.
> But SpaceX — and also maybe OpenAI and Anthropic in their coming IPOs — will probably break that link. SpaceX will probably (1) do all sorts of stuff that index funds hate and that index providers have specifically tried to exclude and also (2) be gigantic, because the market loves it.
[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/ind...
daft_pink
4 hours ago
Apparently, the index funds are based on free float and since the number of free floating shares is limited, the total exposure to the index will be very small.
root_axis
4 hours ago
And accelerating the schedules for insiders to dump shares.
philwelch
4 hours ago
Almost all of the YoY growth in the S&P500 is in a very small number of tech companies. If one of those fast-growing tech companies isn't in the S&P500, the index as a whole becomes obsolete.
SilverElfin
5 hours ago
The same rules are now affecting other big IPOs. I think Cerebras was confirmed as getting fast listing too even though they’re much smaller. It’s one big act of dumping on retail markets
radicalbyte
2 hours ago
They learned from the failure of crypto and have found their bag holders.
wg0
4 hours ago
We're going to witness bigger blast than the great depression, dot com bust and 2008 crisis combined.
These greedy capitalists are after the pension funds + retail investor (ETFs in particular) through IPOs but there's no profitability in sight.
rchaud
5 hours ago
Waiving profitability requirements to join the S&P 500 and trigger auto-buys from index funds is DEI for corporations.
Dig1t
2 hours ago
They will only be added to those indexes if they are actually trading at a value that places them in the top 100 or 500 companies in the US. If they fall below that price then they will be kicked out of the index just like any other company.
What exactly is the risk to normal investors if that’s the case? If it’s all a big scam then they will trade lower and they’ll naturally be kicked out of the index.
This is a rule that will apply to all new companies. When Anthropic and OpenAI go public they will also benefit from the rule. Do you think the media/public will be just as outraged when they do it?
The goal of the S&P 500 is to keep the index representative of the US market. They have in fact changed rules in the past when market conditions have changed. These mega IPOs are an entirely new market condition, as private companies have never been this big before listing in history. So large that they immediately fall into the top 100 or 500 largest companies in the country.
There’s also the fact that Nasdaq is a private company and it now has competition from the new Texas exchange. SpaceX is actually dual-listing on TXSE and Nasdaq. Nasdaq needs to keep these giant IPO companies happy because if they don’t they will list on the competitor exchange which would be disastrous for Nasdaq (supercharging their competitor).
These things affect each other as well. Nasdaq wants to make sure they get the IPO on their exchange, so they include them in the Nasdaq 100. S&P 500 doesn’t want to be outdated by missing a trillion dollar company from their index, while other exchanges like the Nasdaq 100 include them.
There’s a real case to be made that this is just self interest on the part of the exchange and the other index providers.