Tom Steyer is the prediction-market favorite for California governor. On Kalshi he trades at 61 cents. On Polymarket he sits at 54 cents for the general election win and 68 cents to advance from the primary. If you only look at the price, you see a frontrunner. If you look at what is underneath the price, you see something else entirely.

The headline number As of April 13, 2026, Steyer leads the Kalshi primary market at 61c — implying a 61% probability of finishing first in the June 2 top-two primary. His nearest rival, Steve Hilton, trades at 33c. Katie Porter sits at 3c. Matt Mahan at 3c. The market says it is Steyer's race to lose.

But the number that matters is not the price. It is the volume.

$13,200