It seems to be more likely on the unlikely side because (1) Iran planned for distributed operations (2) missiles are still apparently flying, speculated that any agreement may not have disbursed to all the independently operating groups (3) your point, it's unclear if there is any actual agreement (4) is Israel party to this agreement, will they honor any such agreement? Same for Hezbollah and Hamas

like a healthcare plan, always 2-3 weeks away

Came here to say this