The optics look really bad for the regime. One or two of the remaining hardcore maggots might come to their senses if they see open betting on the lives of American pilots, and at this point the regime needs all the help they can get to maintain legitimacy. Polymarket is a partially regime-owned enterprise and therefore has to work in the interests of the regime. But even putting this aside, any change would be bound to result in more regulatory scrutiny.

USA and Israel good, Iran bad. Kindergarten logic. Works pretty well.

Yeah but how many Iranians bet on Polymarket? /s

What an antisemitic thing to say

> How are we supposed to come to a prediction, if wagers are disallowed?

The same way we predicted things before "prediction markets" suddenly showed up?

> in order to make better decisions

If Pete Hegseth bets against the pilot’s rescue, then deliberately prevents the pilot’s rescue in order to win his bet, then that would not improve prediction-making or decision-making in any way.

Prediction markets should stick to the weather.

Hosting an event isn't gambling, why are you conflating those?

As far as I understand, there is no suggestion that this wager is illegal.

It is just in bad taste and, from the POV of Polymarket bad publicity that they'd rather avoid (not least to avoid stricter regulations, which are being mulled).

Even here in the UK, where betting and bookmakers are legal and regulated, I think such bet is perfectly legal if you find a bookmaker to offer you odds on it.