>float a fairly small issuance

They are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem look small a % for the valuation target, However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1]

There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling interests in AI, and middle eastern capital changing priorities, interest rate outlook for the rest of the decade. These are all strong head winds to overcome even when not raising the largest ever amount in an IPO.

That is not say that it is destined to fail, Elon is excellent salesman of vision when fundamentals are weak, There is no better proof than Tesla P/E .

It is by no means clear this would be successful or not. The valuation, funds being raised, future growth potential are all not based on just SpaceX core businesses which would have been an easy sell.

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[1] i.e. it could be still under-subscribed even if everyone buys into the vision, growth projections, is comfortable with valuation gets fully onboard including retail.

Even in this best case scenario SpaceX would have to sell at the lower end of the target range or go even lower and still end up being short matter what, because there could simply be not enough money in the market.

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about.

Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

Only NASDAQ so far; S&P 500 is apparently "reviewing its rules" but hasn't changed them yet.

So you've got a full year to wait on that index fund, assuming they don't cave.

Uter and complete corruption: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47389233

  - "Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu’il a été proprement fait."

          Honoré de Balzac

Ever since SNAP the whole IPO show has been a transparent scam to game the index funds.

The market simply doesn’t have enough people actively investing because it rewards mass stupidity over generating meaningful returns.

Serious question: Is there some ETF that is "Index of S&P500 minus anything that smells like Musk"?

The flaw is the limited float. Indexes will be forced to buy a huge number of shares which don't exist, driving up the price.

For general investors if this is going to eventually happen, the earlier the indexes buy in the better. Otherwise more sophisticated investors will buy ahead of the indexes and grab the profit.

Do the ETF managers have no discretion in determining when to buy? I was under the impression that they usually handle these changes to indices gradually even under normal circumstances.

This is absolutely vile. The xAi merger made no sense and this is forcing working class people into purchasing risky assets from a known scammer.

> If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch

You will be an investor in spacex and xai which it bought.

Fun fact, Xai net loss 6 billion dollars per year and SpaceX net profit 8 billion on a good year (https://www.reuters.com/technology/musks-xai-posts-net-quart... https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/spacex-registers-tak...)

If you remember xai, it's that company currently being sued for the undressing kids feature (https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/895639/x... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_sexual_deepfake_scandal) in its flagship product. By the way the feature is still enabled apparently

Is there something about why spacex wants to go public ? if not then this is definitely about xai... to hide unprofitability and offload it on general public ASAP.

The suckers being fleeced are every pension fund in the world. They're demanding the S&P includes them faster to force ETF owners to buy in before the price tanks.

Unless you literally have nothing, YOU are one of the millions being fleeced. Pensions & retirement funds, any index fund that comes remotely close to technology, any equity you own in a venture in tech, any industry that via very short linkages is connected. Good luck avoiding this.

> SpaceX will now be beholden to Wall Street

I get and appreciate that sentiment. Musk currently has a controlling interest in SpaceX. Do you expect that to change after the IPO? Thanks!

What makes you think this will be different from Tesla?

And likely soon to be the world's biggest ISP, (they probably already are by some metrics)

TSLA is up 300x from what it IPO'd at

Details of alien encounters and abductions, paranormal and psychic phenomena, as well as crypto-zoology and curious human abilities.

reads headline again

Oh. Probably all the money burnt in AI training and data centers.

Just more pedophiles and their supporters.

the truth social is out there

That is what I'm talking about, finally someone is asking the real questions.

Outstanding comment.

4 different levels to unpack: Literal IPO question, Epstein cover-up (gov. won't just do it), aliens (X-Files) cover-up, and finally the Elon-Epstein connection (email files thread to host him at SpaceX).

The big numbers are the cost to train a frontier LLM and the GPU cost per hour.

I don't know what's in the Spacex files, but I do know that Musk begged and pleaded with Epstein to come party on pedo island.

Maybe something to consider before investing in any of his companies.

Sensitive financial information. It is normal for companies to file confidentiality to avoid leaking information early.

The five stages of Elon Musk:

  1.  Elon is a genius, a real world Tony Stark.
  2.  How dare you!  You're just jealous!
  3.  Ok, regardless, he's done more to advance EVe and space travel than anyone else alive.
  4.  Oh God, he's going to cripple US development of EVs and rockets, isn't he?
  5.  Eh, Mars was never happening in my lifetime anyway.

Not sure why you are being downvoted. This is exactly what is happening and why OpenAI is trying to IPO to dump their garbage as well.