Tiberium
10 hours ago
https://x.com/scaling01 has called out a lot of issues with ARC-AGI-3, some of them (directly copied from tweets, with minimal editing):
- Human baseline is "defined as the second-best first-run human by action count". Your "regular people" are people who signed up for puzzle solving and you don't compare the score against a human average but against the second best human solution
- The scoring doesn't tell you how many levels the models completed, but how efficiently they completed them compared to humans. It uses squared efficiency, meaning if a human took 10 steps to solve it and the model 100 steps then the model gets a score of 1% ((10/100)^2)
- 100% just means that all levels are solvable. The 1% number uses uses completely different and extremely skewed scoring based on the 2nd best human score on each level individually. They said that the typical level is solvable by 6 out of 10 people who took the test, so let's just assume that the median human solves about 60% of puzzles (ik not quite right). If the median human takes 1.5x more steps than your 2nd fastest solver, then the median score is 0.6 * (1/1.5)^2 = 26.7%. Now take the bottom 10% guy, who maybe solves 30% of levels, but they take 3x more steps to solve it. this guy would get a score of 3%
- The scoring is designed so that even if AI performs on a human level it will score below 100%
- No harness at all and very simplistic prompt
- Models can't use more than 5X the steps that a human used
- Notice how they also gave higher weight to later levels? The benchmark was designed to detect the continual learning breakthrough. When it happens in a year or so they will say "LOOK OUR BENCHMARK SHOWED THAT. WE WERE THE ONLY ONES"
fc417fc802
9 hours ago
Those are supposed to be issues? After reading your list my impression of ARC-AGI has gone up rather than down. All of those things seem like the right way to go about this.
red75prime
21 minutes ago
No, those aren't issues. But it's good to know the meaning of those numbers we get. For example, 25% is about the average human level (on this category of problems). 100% is either top human level or superhuman level or the information-theoretically optimal level.
girvo
8 hours ago
Yeah I'm quite surprised as to how all of those are supposed to be considered problems. They all make sense to me if we're trying to judge whether these tools are AGI, no?
andy12_
7 hours ago
I think that any logic-based test that your average human can "fail" (aka, score below 50%) is not exactly testing for whether something is AGI or not. Though I suppose it depends on your definition of AGI (and whether all humans, or at least your average human, is considered AGI under that definition).
chillfox
5 hours ago
If I had a puzzle I really needed solved, then I would not ask a rando on the street, I would ask someone I know is really good at puzzles.
My point is: For AGI to be useful, it really should be able to perform at the top 10% or better level for as many professions as possible (ideally all of them).
An AI that can only perform at the average human level is useless unless it can be trained for the job like humans can.
versteegen
5 hours ago
> An AI that can only perform at the average human level is useless unless it can be trained for the job like humans can.
Yes, if you want skilled labour. But that's not at all what ARC-AGI attempts to test for: it's testing for general intelligence as possessed by anyone without a mental incapacity.
sillysaurusx
5 hours ago
It seems they don't test for that, since they use the second-best human solution as a baseline.
And that's the right way to go. When computers were about to become superhuman at chess, few people cared that it could beat random people for many years prior to that. They cared when Kasparov was dethroned.
Remember, the point here is marketing as well as science. And the results speak for themselves. After all, you remember Deep Blue, and not the many runners-up that tried. The only reason you remember is because it beat Kasparov.
cubefox
3 minutes ago
This is supposed to test for AGI, not ASI. ARC-AGI (later labelled "1") was supposed to detect AGI with a test that is easy for humans, not top humans.
benjaminl
6 hours ago
This issue here is that people have different definitions of AGI. From the description. Getting 100% on this benchmark would be more than AGI and would qualify for ASI (Algorithmic Super Intelligence) not just AGI.
foltik
5 hours ago
I’d be hesitant to call that ASI if it’s pretty obvious how you’d write a regular old program to solve it.
cubefox
a few seconds ago
It's not obvious at all. And I would say pretty much impossible without using machine learning. Even for ARC-AGI-1 there is no GOFAI program that scores high.
nopinsight
30 minutes ago
It’s not that simple since each problem is supposed to be distinct and different enough that no single program can solve multiple of them properly. No problem spec is provided as well iiuc so you can’t simply ask an LLM to generate code without doing other things.
fc417fc802
5 hours ago
If you only outdo humans 50% of the time you're never going to get consensus on if you've qualified. Whereas outdoing 90% of humans on 90% of all the most difficult tasks we could come up with is going to be difficult to argue against.
This benchmark is only one such task. After this one there's still the rest of that 90% to go.
Beating humans isn't anywhere near sufficient to qualify as ASI. That's an entirely different league with criteria that are even more vague.
throwuxiytayq
6 hours ago
People are still debating whether these models exhibit any kind of intelligence and any kind of thinking. Setting the bar higher then necessary is welcome, but at this point I’m pretty sure everyone’s opinions are set in stone.
stonogo
4 hours ago
They are severe problems if your income is tied to LLM hype generation.
NitpickLawyer
10 hours ago
> No harness at all and very simplistic prompt
TBF, that's basically what the kaggle competition is for. Take whatever they do, plug in a SotA LLM and it should do better than whatever people can do with limited GPUs and open models.
bee_rider
5 hours ago
Defining the baseline human is always a bit arbitrary. The median human is illiterate and also dead.
dyauspitr
7 hours ago
If anything this makes the test much harder for the LLM to get high scores and that makes the scores they’re getting all that much more impressive.
Marazan
7 hours ago
"Very simplistic prompt" is the absolute and total core of this and the thing that ensures validity of the whole exercise.
If you are trying to measure GENERAL intelligence then it needs to be general.
fchollet
9 hours ago
Francois here. The scoring metric design choices are detailed in the technical report: https://arcprize.org/media/ARC_AGI_3_Technical_Report.pdf - the metric is meant to discount brute-force attempts and to reward solving harder levels instead of the tutorial levels. The formula is inspired by the SPL metric from robotics navigation, it's pretty standard, not a brand new thing.
We tested ~500 humans over 90 minute sessions in SF, with $115-$140 show up fee (then +$5/game solved). A large fraction of testers were unemployed or under-employed. It's not like we tested Stanford grad students. Many AI benchmarks use experts with Ph.D.s as their baseline -- we hire regular folks as our testers.
Each game was seen by 10 people. They were fully solved (all levels cleared) by 2-8 of them, most of the time 5+. Our human baseline is the second best action count, which is considerably less than an optimal first-play (even the #1 human action count is much less than optimal). It is very achievable, and most people on this board would significantly outperform it.
Try the games yourself if you want to get a sense of the difficulty.
> Models can't use more than 5X the steps that a human used
These aren't "steps" but in-game actions. The model can use as much compute or tools as it wants behind the API. Given that models are scored on efficiency compared to humans, the cutoff makes basically no difference on the final score. The cutoff only exists because these runs are incredibly expensive.
> No harness at all and very simplistic prompt
This is explained in the paper. Quoting: "We see general intelligence as the ability to deal with problems that the system was not specifically designed or trained for. This means that the official leaderboard will seek to discount score increases that come from direct targeting of ARC-AGI-3, to the extent possible."
...
"We know that by injecting a high amount of human instructions into a harness, or even hand-crafting harness configuration choices such as which tools to use, it is possible to artificially increase performance on ARC-AGI-3 (without improving performance on any other domain). The purpose of ARC-AGI-3 is not to measure the amount of human intelligence that went into designing an ARC-AGI-3 specific system, but rather to measure the general intelligence of frontier AI systems.
...
"Therefore, we will focus on reporting the performance of systems that have not been specially prepared for ARC-AGI-3, served behind a general-purpose API (representing developer-aware generalization on a new domain as per (8)). This is similar to looking at the performance of a human test-taker walking into our testing center for the first time, with no prior knowledge of ARC-AGI-3. We know such test takers can indeed solve ARC-AGI-3 environments upon first contact, without prior training, without being briefed on solving strategies, and without using external tools."
If it's AGI, it doesn't need human intervention to adapt to a new task. If a harness is needed, it can make its own. If tools are needed, it can chose to bring out these tools.
Marha01
9 minutes ago
Don't you see the massive problem with requiring visual input? Are blind people not intelligent because they cannot solve ARC-AGI-3 without a "harness"?
A theoretical text-only superintelligent LLM could prove the Riemann hypothesis but fail ARC-AGI-3 and won't even be AGI according to this benchmark...
sanxiyn
35 minutes ago
While I think all of your design choices are defensible, I do think you should release the full human baseline data. The second best action count is fine, but other choices are reasonable as well.
Imnimo
8 hours ago
Suppose you construct a Mechanical Turk AI who plays ARC-AGI-3 by, for each task, randomly selecting one of the human players who attempted it, and scoring them as an AI taking those same actions would be scored. What score does this Turk get? It must be <100% since sometimes the random human will take more steps than the second best, but without knowing whether it's 90% or 50% it's very hard for me to contextualize AI scores on this benchmark.
thereitgoes456
2 hours ago
The people recruited weren’t experts. I can imagine it’s straightforward to find humans (such as those that play many video games) that can score >100% on this benchmark.
Imnimo
an hour ago
So, if you look at the way the scoring works, 100% is the max. For each task, you get full credit if you solve in a number of steps less than or equal to the baseline. If you solve it with more steps, you get points off. But each task is scored independently, and you can't "make up" for solving one slowly by solving another quickly.
Like suppose there were only two tasks, each with a baseline score of solving in 100 steps. You come along and you solve one in only 50 steps, and the other in 200 steps. You might hope that since you solved one twice as quickly as the baseline, but the other twice as slowly, those would balance out and you'd get full credit. Instead, your scores are 1.0 for the first task, and 0.25 (scoring is quadratic) for the second task, and your total benchmark score is a mere 0.625.
causal
9 hours ago
Thanks, I mostly agree with your approach except for one thing: eyesight feels like a "harness" that humans get to use and LLMs do not.
I'm guessing you did not pass the human testers JSON blobs to work with, and suspect they would also score 0% without the eyesight and visual cortex harness to their reasoning ability.
fchollet
9 hours ago
I'm all for testing humans and AI on a fair basis; how about we restrict testing to robots physically coming to our testing center to solve the environments via keyboard / mouse / screen like our human testers? ;-)
(This version of the benchmark would be several orders of magnitude harder wrt current capabilities...)
causal
9 hours ago
Well, yes, and would hand even more of an advantage to humans. My point is that designing a test around human advantages seems odd and orthogonal to measuring AGI.
adgjlsfhk1
8 hours ago
The whole point of AGI is "general" intelligence, and for that intelligence to be broadly useful it needs to exist within the context of a human centric world
Marha01
16 minutes ago
Does this mean blind people are not intelligent?
scotty79
6 hours ago
General intelligence not owning retinas.
Denying proper eyesight harness is like trying to construct speech-to-text model that makes transcripts from air pressure values measured 16k times per second, while human ear does frequency-power measurement and frequency binning due to it's physical construction.
causal
7 hours ago
Then why deny it a harness it can also use in a human centric world?
getnormality
5 hours ago
There is no general purpose harness.
levocardia
2 hours ago
My sense is that a powerful enough AI would have the sense to think something like "ah, this sounds like a video game! Let me code up an interactive GUI, test it for myself, then use it to solve these puzzles..." and essentially self-harness (the way you would if you were reading a geometry problem, by drawing it out on paper).
fc417fc802
8 hours ago
The human testers were provided with their customary inputs, as were the LLMs. I don't see the issue.
I guess it could be interesting to provide alternative versions that made available various representations of the same data. Still, I'd expect any AGI to be capable of ingesting more or less any plaintext representation interchangeably.
causal
7 hours ago
The issue is that ARC AGI 3 specifically forbids harnesses that humans get to use.
fc417fc802
5 hours ago
So what? Are you suggesting that an agent exhibiting genuine AGI will be tripped up by having to ingest json rather than rgb pixels? LLMs are largely trained on textual data so json is going to be much closer to whatever native is for them.
But by all means, give the agents access to an API that returns pixel data. However I fully expect that would reduce performance rather than increase it.
blueblisters
9 hours ago
I tried ls20 and it was surprisingly fun! Just from a game design POV, these are very well made.
Nit: I didn't see a final score of how many actions I took to complete 7 levels. Also didn't see a place to sign in to see the leaderboard (I did see the sign in prompt).
strongpigeon
8 hours ago
Something that I don't understand after reading the technical report is: Why is having access to a python interpreter as part of the harness not allowed (like the Duke harness), but using one hidden behind the model API (as a built-in tool) considered kosher?
cdetrio
7 hours ago
The Duke harness was specifically designed for these puzzles, that's why they don't want to measure it.
My reading of that part in the technical report (models "could be using their own tools behind the model’s API, which is a blackbox"), is that there's no way to prevent it.
But from fchollet's comment here, using tools and harnesses is encouraged, as long as they are generic and not arc-agi specific. In that case, the models should be benchmarked by prompting through claude code and codex, rather than the through API (as from the api we only expect raw LLM output, and no tool use).
FINDarkside
6 hours ago
OpenAi does have python execution behind general purpose api, but it has to be enabled with a flag so I don't think it was used.
Veedrac
5 hours ago
There's a very simple solution to this problem here. Instead of wink-wink-nudge-nudge implying that 100% is 'human baseline', calculate the median human score from the data you already have and put it on that chart.
WarmWash
9 hours ago
Maybe this is a neither can confirm or deny thing, but are there systems in place or design decisions made that are meant to surface attempts at benchmark optimizing (benchmaxxing), outside of just having private sets? Something like a heuristic anti-cheat I suppose.
Or perhaps the view is that any gains are good gains? Like studying for a test by leaning on brute memorization is still a non-zero positive gain.
fchollet
9 hours ago
There are no tricks. Our approach to reducing the impact of targeting (without fully eliminating it) is described in the paper.
cdetrio
8 hours ago
Are you prompting the models through their APIs, which are not designed to use tools or harnesses? Or do the "system prompt" results come from prompting into the applications (i.e. claude code, or codex, or even the web front-ends)?
GodelNumbering
8 hours ago
Off topic but I have been following your Twitter for a while and your posts specifically about the nature of intelligence have been a read.
theLiminator
9 hours ago
Lol basically we're saying AI isn't AI if we utilize the strength of computers (being able to compute). There's no reason why AGI should have to be as "sample efficient" as humans if it can achieve the same result in less time.
pptr
6 hours ago
Let's say an agent needs to do 10 brain surgeries on a human to remove a tumor and a human doctor can do it in a single surgery. I would prefer the human.
"steps" are important to optimize if they have negative externalities.
ACCount37
9 hours ago
It's kind of the point? To test AI where it's weak instead of where it's strong.
"Sample efficient rule inference where AI gets to control the sampling" seems like a good capability to have. Would be useful for science, for example. I'm more concerned by its overreliance on humanlike spatial priors, really.
famouswaffles
9 hours ago
ARC has always had that problem but for this round, the score is just too convoluted to be meaningful. I want to know how well the models can solve the problem. I may want to know how 'efficient' they are, but really I don't care if they're solving it in reasonable clock time and/or cost. I certainly do not want them jumbled into one messy convoluted score.
'Reasoning steps' here is just arbitrary and meaningless. Not only is there no utility to it unlike the above 2 but it's just incredibly silly to me to think we should be directly comparing something like that with entities operating in wildly different substrates.
If I can't look at the score and immediately get a good idea of where things stand, then throw it way. 5% here could mean anything from 'solving only a tiny fraction of problems' to "solving everything correctly but with more 'reasoning steps' than the best human scores." Literally wildly different implications. What use is a score like that ?
pants2
8 hours ago
The measurement metric is in-game steps. Unlimited reasoning between steps is fine.
This makes sense to me. Most actions have some cost associated, and as another poster stated it's not interesting to let models brute-force a solution with millions of steps.
famouswaffles
8 hours ago
Same thing in this case. No Utility and just as arbitrary. None of the issues with the score change.
Models do not brute force solutions in that manner. If they did, we'd wait the lifetimes of several universes before we could expect a significant result.
Regardless, since there's a x5 step cuttof, 'brute forcing with millions of steps' was never on the table.
thereitgoes456
7 hours ago
The metric is very similar to cost. It seems odd to justify one and not the other.
famouswaffles
6 hours ago
Cost has utility in the real world and this doesn't. That's the only reason i would tolerate thinking about cost, and even then, i would never bundle it into the same score as the intelligence, because that's just silly.
jstummbillig
9 hours ago
It's an interesting point but I too find it questionable. Humans operate differently than machines. We don't design CPU benchmarks around how humans would approach a given computation. It's not entirely obvious why we would do it here (but it might still be a good idea, I am curious).
cyanydeez
9 hours ago
I think your logic isn't sound: Wouldn't we want a "intelligence" to solve problems efficiently rather than brute force a million monkies? There's defnitely a limit to compute, the same ways there's a limit to how much oil we can use, etc.
In theory, sure, if I can throw a million monkies and ramble into a problem solution, it doesnt matter how I got there. In practice though, every attempt has a direct and indirect impact on the externalities. You can argue those externalities are minor, but the largesse of money going to data centers suggests otherwise.
Lastly, humans use way less energy to solve these in fewer steps, so of course it matter when you throw Killowatts at something that takes milliwatts to solve.
diego_sandoval
8 hours ago
> Lastly, humans use way less energy to solve these in fewer steps,
Not if you count all the energy that was necessary to feed, shelter and keep the the human at his preferred temperature so that he can sit in front of a computer and solve the problem.
cyanydeez
8 hours ago
ok, but thats the same for bulding a data center.
Try again.
gunalx
7 hours ago
Yes, especially when considering a dataceter needed the energy of pretty many people to be built.
A single human is indeed more efficent, and way more flexible and actually just general intelligence.
fsdf2
6 hours ago
Oh and who provided the 'food' for the models?
...
People who write the stuff like the poster above you... are bizzaro. Absolutely bizarro. Did the LLM manfiest itself into existence? Wtf.
Edit, just got confirmation about the bizarro-ness after looking at his youtube.