German economists push for gold repatriation from U.S. vaults

126 pointsposted 9 hours ago
by saubeidl

98 Comments

BartjeD

8 hours ago

Good idea, Netherlands should follow suit.

The fed is being dismantled in front of our eyes.

Militia's shoot US citizens for documenting their illegal behavior.

Insane

oefrha

6 hours ago

Good idea, but don’t be surprised when threatened with 100% tariffs. Canada got that threat (again? honestly lost track) just yesterday.

jenadine

3 hours ago

There is already arbitrary tariff. At this point, it is better to trade with other countries instead of chasing the US. Let the American citizen pay their tariff, their loss.

N19PEDL2

7 hours ago

Italy should do it as well.

e40

4 hours ago

Militia? No, the government! ICE is an official government agency.

lucyjojo

4 hours ago

i mean...

    militia
    noun
    
    1. a military force that is raised from the civil population to supplement a regular army in an emergency

e40

3 hours ago

"civilians trained as soldiers but not part of the regular army"

I don't know if you're from the US, but here, militia applies solely to civilian groups and not government ones.

xdennis

5 hours ago

The Dutch absolutely should NOT follow suit. You guys stole our (Romanian) golden helmet when we sent it to a museum in the Netherlands[1] because you don't have any armed guards at museums.

Maybe send your gold to a country that actually protects priceless things, like the UK.

[1]: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/art-thieves-blew-u...

fmajid

2 hours ago

The UK under Gordon Brown foolishly sold off most of its gold reserves. If they had kept thrm, they would be worth £40B more today, or 10 times what it was sold for.

louthy

8 hours ago

> Germany holds the world’s second-largest national gold reserves after the United States, with approximately $194B worth — 1,236 metric tons—currently stored at the Federal Reserve in New York

Moving that much gold makes me think that’s a great opportunity for the world’s biggest heist!

cjs_ac

8 hours ago

That's going to take a lot of Minis!

Brajeshwar

7 hours ago

This is why, “I trust everyone. It’s the devil inside them I don’t trust.”

louthy

7 hours ago

Hang on a minute lads, I've got a great idea...

raffael_de

3 hours ago

The Remmos and al-Zeins are probably thinking about that already, but as long as the Sparkasse isn't in charge of the transfer I'd say such a heist will be too difficult for the usual suspects.

chmod775

8 hours ago

If a plan was made to repatriate it, chances are this will happens slowly over years, possibly decades. A lot of it might not even be "moved", but rather "swapped" for gold physically in the EU by means of various vehicles: such as selling gold at a slight loss in the US, and buying gold in the EU. Doing so might be cheaper than arranging for physical transport of large quantities.

When large quantities of gold are actually transported "at once", it usually happens in secret on warships. Maybe military planes would be used nowadays? Who knows. Good luck anyhow.

eternauta3k

7 hours ago

Wouldn't it be a "big loss" if the market believes that gold in Fort Knox is not retrievable? Same as in Argentina, where currency controls led to 1 USD in an Argentinian savings account to be worth less than 1 USD outside the country.

xg15

8 hours ago

In normal times, yes. But I'm not sure if that still holds if there is a sense of urgency, because no one knows when Trump might get the next stupid idea.

Also I wonder if the rising gold price would interact with this, though I think this would make the "sell and re-buy" strategy actually more viable, at least if you buy first and then sell.

rasz

3 hours ago

Maybe this time it would succeed since McClane has dementia.

direwolf20

8 hours ago

Why do they think the US will give it to them? After all, last time this happened, the US didn't actually have the gold, it cancelled all gold IOUs — effectively stealing the gold — and that was the Nixon shock. It made the US very wealthy for the next half century.

atombender

7 hours ago

Aren't you confusing two things? When Nixon suspended Bretton Woods, he wasn't refusing to repatriate gold, he was reneging on the promise that dollars could be converted into gold (one of the reasons being that it no longer had enough physical gold to redeem).

So countries like France held dollars and could no longer get them converted to gold. From my reading, before 1971, all the requests to convert dollars by France, Switzerland, and the UK were all honoured, contributing to the crisis. I don't believe anyone were refused conversion until 1971. And even then, everyone still had their dollars. All they lost was the ability to redeem for gold according to the fixed Bretton Woods price. Dollars could still be used to buy gold at market value.

But this article is talking about repatriating gold owned by other governments but physically held in vaults by the US. A bunch of countries (including Germany) have already repatriated vast amount that were housed by the US, and those requests have never been refused. The Federal Reserve is said to even keeps the bars owned by other countries physically separate, rather than commingled.

direwolf20

5 hours ago

That's a refusal to repatriate, since other countries had sent their gold to the US to exchange for dollars with the understanding they could exchange it back at an time.

atombender

4 hours ago

Is that happened? I'm not an expert on the history of Bretton Woods, but my understanding is countries that sent gold to be stored in the US retained ownership over it, and repatriation was never refused.

If they had converted gold to dollars, this only suspended their ability to "rebalance" between gold and dollars, and no value was lost.

direwolf20

4 hours ago

The dollars were worth a small fraction of the gold. It's true that no value was lost — because that value was transferred from the other countries to the US.

atombender

2 hours ago

That doesn't sound right. Money is fungible. Anyone who missed the "window" to convert in 1971 (which major countries like UK, Germany, and France didn't, as far as I can see) still had their dollars. The US-domiciled gold that backed the dollars had always belong the US; so the dollars being an "IOU" makes sense in a colloquial sense, I guess, but it's a gross simplification that misses the broader point about how Bretton Woods affected monetary policy. It shifted the US into being able to maintain a permanent trade deficit, and the US was free to devalue the dollar (effectively the world's default currency) without repercussion, which is good for the US but not for everyone else.

niemandhier

7 hours ago

That would be more or less equivalent to defaulting on government bonds, in the sense that the latter are only backed by the buyers trust that the US will pay them back.

The result would be catastrophic for the US: worst case would be a domino cash in of American debt.

direwolf20

7 hours ago

It already happened — see Nixon shock — and was enormously beneficial for the US economy.

nolok

6 hours ago

This is not the same thing at all, you're confusing fixed exchange rate with just giving back something you don't own.

SilverElfin

7 hours ago

Many Trump supporters actually believe a collapse of the dollar would be a good thing, and that Trump has a plan, because of (some vague bogeyman about the federal reserve). They don’t realize or want to admit that this would mean they would become poorer overnight.

B1FIDO

7 hours ago

I become poorer by every day that I maintain a positive balance in my savings or checking accounts!

expedition32

6 hours ago

Well there is that "project 2025" that we were told wasn't real.

There's an amusing anecdote about the Dutch queen who asked the prime minister if he read Mein Kampf.

Everyone is just desperately pretending none of this is happening.

chrisjj

7 hours ago

> Why do they think the US will give it to them?

Perhaps they think asking is the best way to find out.

raincole

7 hours ago

> why do they think the US will give it to them?

Because gold repatriation isn't something that special or unthinkable. It happened multiple times already.

Netherlands, Austria, Belgium and Germany have asked a significant portion of their gold back. The US gave them and the world kept working as before. The amount of doom posting in this thread is mildly amusing though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_repatriation#Germany

Havoc

7 hours ago

Think they'll have to - you can only switch to a "trust me bro" system once.

direwolf20

7 hours ago

Do you think Germany would invade the US if they did it a second time? Or, what exactly would happen as a consequence to the US?

Havoc

6 hours ago

>what exactly would happen as a consequence to the US?

It would trigger a loss of faith in the US and USD. Which could get really spicy given that the US relies on reserve currency status to keep things steady despite comparatively high debt/gdp

Hard to tell what would happen but I suspect its borderline enough that nobody sane wants to find out

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

greggoB

7 hours ago

Can you provide some references to them doing this the first time? You seem to like posting comments about the "Nixon shock" without providing anything to back it up.

direwolf20

6 hours ago

Sorry — I thought this was well known. Until 1971 a united states dollar was an IOU for a certain amount of gold. The US cheated by printing more IOUs than the amount of gold it had. When foreign countries started withdrawing gold at a rate the US thought it would run out, in 1971, it cancelled all IOUs and kept the remaining gold for itself.

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibi...

faust201

8 hours ago

this. Especially USA may use all those gold to build a Gold White House.

wtcactus

6 hours ago

When did that happen? Are you talking about Breton Woods? Because if that’s the case, you got it completely wrong.

Joel_Mckay

7 hours ago

The biggest customer of Canadian Mint gold bullion are US investors in New York, as Wall Street knows its refinement is always very pure and traceable. Note this mint saw an $8.3B uptick in sales in 2025 alone due to international political antics.

"The prohibition on gold ownership in the US was relaxed in 1964, and finally rescinded in 1977 when Gerald Ford signed proclamation Pub.L. 93-373."

However, during severe economic recession the US government has Nationalized private gold holdings >1oz in the past. Something like a 35% drop in markets due to a theoretical Magnificent 7 "AI" bubble correction does pose a nonzero risk.

Keep some Popcorn ready, as the price of Gold going any higher is getting weird. =3

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Towaway69

6 hours ago

That debt clock looks like a monopoly board. Lets be honest, the world economy has become one massive game of monopoly with big tech and big oil being the banks.

What would the founding fathers, the ghosts of the French Revolution or Plato say to that? Nothing, they’re all dead.

We should be doing the changing, not the long dead past.

filoeleven

5 hours ago

> What would the founding fathers, the ghosts of the French Revolution or Plato say to that? Nothing, they’re all dead.

Well, the people are dead. Calling a ghost itself "alive" or "dead" is a categorical error.

haizhung

4 hours ago

Why not just … sell the gold? What good is gold to a society anyway, regardless of where it is placed?

Instead of drawing the anger of the US, just .. slowly over time, sell all the gold off, and move the money back. And use it to build infrastructure or something. Much better than gold.

ArtTimeInvestor

8 hours ago

If the USA cannot be trusted that they will honor the ownership of gold in their vaults, can it be trusted to honor the ownership of US equities and bonds held by foreigners?

Hamuko

6 hours ago

At the moment you can't really trust the US with anything.

pfdietz

7 hours ago

I wonder what they'd do if the US starts reducing NATO commitments. A perception that Europe is using financial blackmail to keep the US in NATO would have interesting effects on US politics.

Anyway, it's been clear to me that this sort of thing was Trump's plan all along. The goal is massive and permanent reduction in the size of the federal government. If that requires crashing the US ability to borrow more money, and crashing the value of the dollar, that's a price he's willing to make the US pay. US reputation abroad is of absolutely no importance to him; indeed, it's a negative, since a positive reputation allows borrowing that sustains the large federal government he hates.

The lesson for Europe is that depending on the US to defend them was a poisonous mistake, even if a very seductive one.

A post-crash US would be poorer, but also much more economically competitive. This would tend to encourage investment, so it's an interesting question how far the dollar would actually decline.

I wouldn't want to be in South Korea or Taiwan (or Japan, really) in this scenario.

1718627440

3 hours ago

> depending on the US to defend them was a poisonous mistake, even if a very seductive one.

It was a decision that was necessary to not loose the second world war to Germany and/or the Sovietunion. Until 30 years ago separating from the US would have meant allowing the Sovietunion to expand to the Atlantic. Separating from the US has been an open discussion for the last 30 years, but it was always felt to be a security risk and the US has actively used its soft power to remain the status quo.

dvfjsdhgfv

6 hours ago

Trump likes to frame is as if Europe said: "Please, USA, protect us, and we will just parasite on you and abuse our relationship to our advantage". Whereas in fact the whole story is the other way round. For example there were limits on the size of German army not that long time ago. And the USA did everything so that its interests are well represented n Europe. Now that Trump plays his "We don't need anyone" theme, the former allies of the USA are forming their own alliances, reduce spending in the USA and no longer feel obliged to turn a blind eye on things that were bothering them for decades.

The only reason why other countries sent their soldiers to stupid wars in Afghanistan and Irak that made no sense then and make no sense now was because they were honoring their commitments and saying OK, we send people to die but if the worst come and Russia attacks us, The USA will do their part. Now Trump openly says all this was for nothing. All trust in the USA is gone as nobody knows what Trump does when he wakes up next day. So we quietly work on making the best of the current situation.

pfdietz

5 hours ago

I'm less interested in performative statements and more interested in underlying motivations and incentives. It's not a question of who is "right" but of what the actors get out of it.

Of course Europe was leaning on US defense. This enabled resources to be diverted to social spending instead, something that has become all the more vital as populations age. And it's not clear what the US gets out of defending Europe now. There's no perceived Soviet juggernaut and Russia can't even conquer Ukraine.

1718627440

3 hours ago

> There's no perceived Soviet juggernaut and Russia can't even conquer Ukraine.

It looks a bit like that to be the case, but legally Russia still isn't at war with the Ukraine, according to their own internal law. Hence the use of mercenaries and "volunteers" and the pinky promise that conscripts are not used near the Ukraine.

austin-cheney

9 hours ago

Ray Dalio describes such actions as the beginning of the end.

tock

8 hours ago

It's kinda weird how Dalio has been predicting a fall for a while now.

greggoB

7 hours ago

He's described as a "permabear" on r/StockMarket and r/wallstreetbets. Common refrain is he could be right in principle, but getting the timing wrong can be the same as being wrong, for all practical purposes.

tock

7 hours ago

The timing matters if you want to make money off it. I'm just talking about how he was saying the US empire will fall a few years ago. Not the stock market.

watwut

8 hours ago

Greenland thing and taking Russia side were beginning of the end. Lying about America never getting help was making the end loud and clear.

This is just Germans dealing with end being unavoidable.

lm28469

8 hours ago

The beginning of the end started when they came up with project 2025 really, they've been implementing what they said they would implement.

tchalla

8 hours ago

The beginning of the end started with Nixon. It allowed US to print whatever money and never default. I find it insane that the world went along with it. Seems like a parody.

microtonal

7 hours ago

It's what Carney's speech alluded to when he cited Havel's The Power of the Powerless [1]. The sign was put in the displays because it was the best thing to do for the vassal states. Those days are slowly ending, more and more countries are going to stop displaying the sign.

This is also what at least part of the Americans doesn't get. Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea, etc. weren't freeloaders, they were doing the bidding of the US in the UN, maintaining the system where the US can print money without limit, etc. All that soft power has been destroyed.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_the_Powerless

amadeuspagel

2 hours ago

Another question is why germany owns $530B worth of gold in the first place. This gold isn't backing a currency in any sense, if that is even how we still think about gold and currencies today. The opportunity cost of holding this amount of gold is immense.

hunglee2

8 hours ago

de-risking from the United States is the only choice for anybody who cares about national interests. The question is how to do it on the quiet, and not trigger Trump into another rage tweeted escalation.

microtonal

7 hours ago

Just not talking about it and doing it slowly seems to work? E.g. one of the Dutch pension funds has pulled 1/3rd of their investment of US bonds (10/30 billion) since early 2025. They won't talk about, you'll only see it in their public records/reports. They re-invested the money in Dutch and German bonds.

hunglee2

an hour ago

yeah this is probably the way. One of the features of fascism is general incompetence, springing from destruction of state capacity in favour patronage networks.

tjpnz

8 hours ago

I hope they've identified US assets of equivalent value to immediately sieze if there's any funny business.

llbbdd

8 hours ago

It would definitely be fun to watch Germany try to lift that sword.

exe34

8 hours ago

Rammstein?

usr1106

8 hours ago

Rammstein is a band. Ramstein is the most important US military bases in Europe. I guess you meant the latter?

airspresso

7 hours ago

Thank you, was confused there for a second XD

exe34

7 hours ago

Aha, yes!

Fnoord

7 hours ago

Well, they did write this lyric around 2004:

(hook)

We′re all living in Amerika.

Amerika ist wunderbar.

We're all living in Amerika,

Amerika, Amerika.

(verse)

Wenn getanzt wird, will ich führen,

auch wenn ihr euch alleine dreht.

Lasst euch ein wenig kontrollieren.

Ich zeige euch, wie es richtig geht.

Wir bilden einen lieben Reigen,

die Freiheit spielt auf allen Geigen.

Musik kommt aus dem Weißen Haus

und vor Paris steht Micky Maus.

(hook)

We're all living in Amerika.

Amerika ist wunderbar.

We′re all living in Amerika,

Amerika, Amerika.

(verse)

Ich kenne Schritte, die sehr nützen,

und werde euch vor Fehltritt schützen.

Und wer nicht tanzen will am Schluss,

weiß noch nicht, dass er tanzen muss.

Wir bilden einen lieben Reigen,

ich werde euch die Richtung zeigen.

Nach Afrika kommt Santa Claus

und vor Paris steht Micky Maus.

(hook)

We′re all living in Amerika.

Amerika ist wunderbar.

We're all living in Amerika,

Amerika, Amerika.

We′re all living in Amerika.

Coca-Cola, Wonderbra.

We're all living in Amerika,

Amerika, Amerika.

(outro)

This is not a love song.

This is not a love song.

I don′t sing my mother tongue.

No, this is not a love song.

(hook)

We're all living in Amerika.

Amerika ist wunderbar.

We′re all living in Amerika,

Amerika, Amerika.

We're all living in Amerika.

Coca-Cola, sometimes war.

We're all living in Amerika,

Amerika, Amerika.

seydor

8 hours ago

Just cash it out. They'll never get it back

fkdk

7 hours ago

I agree that they will never get the gold back, but is it really more likely that the US hands over that sum in cash?

bell-cot

8 hours ago

Given a certain President's thin skin, and inclinations toward dramatic and confrontational behavior - if the Europeans actually wanted their gold back, it should have been done very quietly. Probably with obfuscated paperwork, or other shell games or smokescreens.

qznc

8 hours ago

Gold price is high, so why not just sell it?

Meanwhile Germany could silently buy gold at home and let the market handle where it comes from.

flowerthoughts

5 hours ago

You also need to build the infrastructure to take on 1,000 tons of gold. I doubt that's done in a month. IIRC, London has the biggest storage after NYC, so that's probably where it'll end up in the interrim. Eventually, I'd guess Switzerland will rise to do more gold storage.

We're essentially creating the same scenario as WTI vs Brent oil, where gold is partitioned into multiple different products depending on location.

aebtebeten

8 hours ago

Germans. We (also European) thankfully already got our gold back.

Havoc

7 hours ago

With that idiot a bullshit pretext might have done the trick.

"We just want to have it for a bit to polish it to ensure it is shiny. It's a requirement of German law under Saftsack gesetz 35.6"

microtonal

7 hours ago

"The German Bundespräsident want to add a new gold-plated ballroom to his residence, we have to melt all the gold."

lm28469

8 hours ago

Idk man, these things are hilarious, I for one enjoy seeing Trump having toddlers tier meltdown on video every now and then. That's why I keep watching his live speeches, that and in the hope his body finally gives up in glorious 4k 60 fps

The more he pushes us away with his deranged tantrums the more independence we are forced to build, it's a win-win really

mna_

7 hours ago

He eats McDonalds everyday and does 0 exercise. Imagine how long he'd live if he ate healthy and exercised daily.

SilverElfin

7 hours ago

He also only gets a few hours of sleep. I wonder if that’s part of why his behavior is so unhinged.

metalman

5 hours ago

I am absolutly certain (without knowing or checking), that many of the germans involved in putting there gold in US hands, did so "reluctantly". And now with panzers in the ukrain for the 3'rd time they are looking back overthere shoulders thinking right, general winter in front and our gold back there and how did they get in this mess anyway, reluctantly. Some of the men who mentored me, spoke of there experiences going ashore in France and pushing on into Germany, which they did at great personal cost, but in spite of that, enthusiasticly. Every time Russia publishes a "routine" update on there sovereign gold reserves it must make the euros twitch, with the germans developing a prounounced tick. which is all my way of saying that I can find no way to sympathise.

surgical_fire

7 hours ago

I seriously doubt the US will honor this, and will likely just keep the gold for itself.

It is a profoundly untrustworthy country.

aussieguy1234

7 hours ago

I've heard all the gold is headed for Singapore nowdays

sdoering

7 hours ago

To be clear: I find Trump contemptible. But I also try to understand why (powerful) people act the way they do, beyond the surface-level explanations.

The gold discussion imho misses the point if it’s reduced to “Trump is unhinged.”

What we just saw at Davos with Greenland reveals the actual pattern: the theatrics are the tool, not the objective. The erratic behavior generates uncertainty, which then gets converted into bargaining leverage.

With Greenland, Trump just demonstrated how this works: maximum escalation (tariff threats against a NATO partner), then “backing down” in exchange for concessions (“total and permanent access”). The result is a structural shift - Europe becomes more dependent on US decisions in the Arctic, not less.

The second-order effect: coercive bargaining within the Western alliance becomes normalized. Once you’ve done this with Denmark, the threshold drops for similar tactics on other issues - tech regulation, China policy, financial infrastructure.

The third-order effect for German gold: the real question isn’t whether Trump is “crazy enough” to freeze gold reserves. The question is what negotiating leverage the mere possibility creates. Even if the probability is 5% - what concessions would Germany make to bring that risk down to 0%? That’s the actual logic: the more everyone believes he might do it, the more he can “sell” not doing it.

The economists aren’t arguing that (or if) confiscation is likely. They’re arguing that the risk is no longer negligible enough to ignore - and that the cost-benefit calculation of storing it there has fundamentally shifted.

microtonal

7 hours ago

Why do people continue attributing 4D chess to Trump? He is an egomaniac and just wants to be one of the few presidents that added land to the US (similar to being one of the few presidents who won the Nobel Peace Prize). He has said as much as it being 'psychological' to him.

So, he made the threats. Stocks start going down, bond yields start going up. Perhaps surprising to him there is a unified reaction from EU countries, the trade bazooka is on the table. More rational actors in his entourage/broligachy start to get worried, advising him to find a landing site. Along comes Mark Rutte who offers him a landing site that sounds great, but does not improve much over his starting position, but actually made it worse (there will be non-US NATO arctic troops on Greenland, not just 4 dog sleds or whatever he is always rambling about).

The longer-term damage for the US is much bigger. Tech sovereignty just moved to the top of the EU agendas and companies and government will move away from US tech, to a loss of hundreds of billions of income in the longer term.

Some 4D chess move...

wvbdmp

7 hours ago

Following incentives isn’t 4D chess. Still we can acknowledge that they exist even if they’re perverse and that even retarded moves sometimes pay off or appear to pay off, in some way in some term. Nobody is calling Trump a genius.

nickthegreek

2 hours ago

The only thing he accomplished was making america look like a fool again.

honzabe

6 hours ago

> With Greenland, Trump just demonstrated how this works: maximum escalation (tariff threats against a NATO partner), then “backing down” in exchange for concessions (“total and permanent access”). The result is a structural shift - Europe becomes more dependent on US decisions in the Arctic, not less.

What concessions? Can you name one thing that Trump got that the US did not have before?

If these actually are attempts at some sort of “the art of the deal” manipulation, they are failing catastrophically. He is achieving nothing while destroying the soft power the US benefited from since WW2.

> The second-order effect: coercive bargaining within the Western alliance becomes normalized

What? What does that even mean? Do you realize how hand-wavey this sounds? With this kind of vague ex-post rationalization totally blind to any negative consequences of the supposed “bargaining”, you could sanewash literally any action. Trump shoots the Prime Minister of Norway on live TV? He just wanted to promote better security of the Western leaders.

Someone else in this thread talks about the supposed lack of awareness of “the art of the deal” meme. No, I am aware of the “4D chess” theory to explain Trump’s behavior. I just don’t think it matches the observation. I think the “malignant narcissist with emotional maturity of an 8-year-old” works much better.

BTW, I like how Emily Maitlis talks about Trump’s “achievements” in Davos - it brings a bit of much-needed levity to the situation: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/34yP2X-nZCk

hilsdev

7 hours ago

>What we just saw at Davos with Greenland reveals the actual pattern: the theatrics are the tool, not the objective. The erratic behavior generates uncertainty, which then gets converted into bargaining leverage.

He said this in his book The Art of the Deal, released in 1987. It’s been his playbook for all political campaigning and both terms of his presidency. It’s a meme to point this out in certain right leaning circles.

I was frustrated by the lack of awareness about this for awhile. I still am but I understand now that the media is also playing their part and doing their role. It’s absolutely justified - these ridiculous claims and arguments generate clicks, attention, revenue.

It’s something that should be kept in mind by the average voter though, and in social media discussion. Everyone wants you to be emotionally invested. Trump wants you to commit so he can pump fake tou, and the media gets solid quarterly numbers

hugodan

7 hours ago

War is coming. Act accordingly