Retreating from EVs could be hazardous for Western carmakers

30 pointsposted 14 hours ago
by smurda

84 Comments

favflam

13 hours ago

I want to see if Kei-trucks can break into the market. The last time a new product form broke into the US market, it was during a big recession (japanese auto-makers got compact cars in). People will value functionality over form if we get into a prolonged recession.

ehnto

13 hours ago

I love that the world is loving kei trucks and kei cars right now.

I see them pretty often in Australia which also has an anti yank-tank movement (tongue in cheek name for a big american "truck")

That said our most popular cars are still all three tonne utes or SUVs so it's a small movement.

You are right to note the economic situation being a big part of vehicle decisions. Fuel prices has been a driving force, and image plays a big part too.

ashleyn

12 hours ago

The chicken tax pretty much makes this impossible. The only domestic manufacturer interested in cheap light-duty trucks is Slate, which is still in the development phase and faces a lot of risks, notably high cost for the segment.

jmward01

13 hours ago

I think big vehicles are ugly and stupid so I like the form as well as the function.

siliconc0w

12 hours ago

It's too late anyway- China and the other Eastern players have already won. Western Autos are basically walking dead, artificially kept alive by export controls and tariffs.

bataowt

12 hours ago

Until HN can have an honest discussion on how far behind West is in so many aspects - without blaming Trump for it glibly - each day that passes is a day it falls further behind.

The moment you face the truth is the moment you can start doing something about it.

epistasis

12 hours ago

Facing the truth also requires acknowledging the roadblocks. Largely due to Trump but Al Republican and conservative culture, and structural, and some permitting etc.

Saying that Trump is not allowed to be blamed is symptomatic of just how damaged the public discourse is. Too many snowflakes who are terrified of facing basic accountability for the consequences of their beliefs and actions.

RickJWagner

12 hours ago

Not long ago, Tesla dealerships were being firebombed and random Teslas vandalized. The perps were lefties, intent upon trying to harm Elon Musk. There were a great many appreciative onlookers in left leaning subreddits and similar places.

Politically, it seems the people slowing EV adaption can be on both sides of the aisle.

array_key_first

9 hours ago

Right, and materially - what do you think damages EVs more? A few fires, or structural policy choice deliberately intended to destroy the industry?

Yes, we can truly both sides everything. But we can't just claim things are the same when they're obviously not.

It's clear, and indisputable, that most EV adoption is coming from green policy, particularly around the economy. And who is most responsible for that? The explicitly pro-oil republicans, or not-them?

wakawaka28

9 hours ago

The policy choice to stop subsidizing EVs makes sense. The ones on the market SUCK for normal people. If they were actually so good and fit for purpose, people would not have to be bribed to adopt them. It turns into a coupon program for yuppies to buy expensive and impractical status symbols at a discount.

In addition to individual considerations, we don't have enough electricity to run all the charging for EVs. And now, we need much more for AI. If we leave the market alone, people will allocate resources where they are actually needed the most. Any other scheme will be disappointingly inefficient.

array_key_first

9 hours ago

The policy choice to stop subsidizing EVs while, simultaneously halting their adoption from overseas, was intended to deliberately hurt the industry as a whole.

We know this because the people doing it are explicitly pro oil. Trump has gone on a few times now about how much he loves oil.

And, to be clear, the subsidies didn't go away, they moved. If we want to talk subsidies, oil is at the tippy top of that list. It's disingenuous to just ignore it. I mean, for fucks sake, MOST of the corn grown in this country is just so we can turn it into gas. Do a deep dive on that.

> If we leave the market alone, people will allocate resources where they are actually needed the most

If we left the market alone, we would've abandoned gasoline cars a long time ago. They're one of the most, if not the most, blessed products by our government. They get every special treatment, bailout, and subsidy in the book. Down to even the streets. 25 trillion on interstates alone.

wakawaka28

8 hours ago

>The policy choice to stop subsidizing EVs while, simultaneously halting their adoption from overseas, was intended to deliberately hurt the industry as a whole.

Chinese EVs are a Trojan horse. Even if they weren't, we cannot compete with the Chinese on cost and probably can't trust their quality standards.

>I mean, for fucks sake, MOST of the corn grown in this country is just so we can turn it into gas. Do a deep dive on that.

I know that. Ethanol somehow reduces certain kinds of supposedly harmful emissions, and it gives farmers someone to sell their corn to. We need to support farmers because a market spread too thin on farming means people would starve. If we had crop issues, rest assured that they would probably stop using ethanol until things got back to normal.

>If we left the market alone, we would've abandoned gasoline cars a long time ago.

We had EV cars a hundred years ago and abandoned them. Petrol works better. People could be encouraged to use electric trains or something but it turns out that city life is not practical or desirable for everyone.

>They get every special treatment, bailout, and subsidy in the book. Down to even the streets. 25 trillion on interstates alone.

Every country prizes its auto industry (if it has one) because it is related to nearly every other production capability. Building all the shit the military needs from scratch down to the raw material supply chain is not something that can be done in a hurry. Also, I don't know if you knew, but the interstates are used for rapid shipping and military movement. Trains still exist but they can't compete with trucks on highways for most things.

logankeenan

an hour ago

> We need to support farmers because a market spread too thin on farming means people would starve.

People would not starve if we stopped the ethanol mandate. In fact, corn prices would fall because the government would no longer force ethanol to be mixed with oil. Less demand would decrease the price.

jemmyw

7 hours ago

> we cannot compete with the Chinese on cost and probably can't trust their quality standards.

This already played out with Japanese cars and it turned out it was the quality rather than the cost that was hard to compete with. I'm going to bet that EVs from Asia will be better built than anything made in the US or Europe before too long (if not already). They'll manufacture at scale and work out the kinks.

Western companies should have been doing this. I feel that Tesla tried and never really got there. Protectionism alone won't make it happen.

jauntywundrkind

7 hours ago

The perps were patriots, resisting a murdering (among others, destroying USAID) sociopath committing mass treason against the government.

There were also like maybe a dozen actually destructive cases. No one got hurt. Total property damage was maybe a half million dollars? We're arguing over the dumbest pittances of nothing, even if we add an order of magnitude here. This is ridiculous.

Personally, your post seems to be strongly condemning, as if this was some absurd nightmare situation. I find it just ridiculous cowardice to pretend like this was an actual scary and bad problem. I'm not sure how many 9's of non violent peaceful protest it was, but it was a lot of 9's, and very little actual harm.

Yes, a brand had it's image destroyed. It did it itself. Telsa's leader set it's brand's name on fire. Molotov'ed itself into kingdom come. From which it seems impossible to recover. A brand that was early in on EV's. But it seems facetious and ridiculous blame this political suicide in public, with nazi salutes and chainsaws, on the left. Get real man; you have to be joking. The left didn't slow this down; what kind of a fool do you take us for?

wakawaka28

9 hours ago

>Saying that Trump is not allowed to be blamed is symptomatic of just how damaged the public discourse is.

He didn't say that.

The trouble is that ALL anyone does is blame Trump, when both parties have undermined US industry for the past 50 years or so. I think there is no clear solution to keeping industry here. Protectionism often undermines competition and raises costs. But with the current monetary system, and our collective labor/wage standards, we cannot compete in the long run. We will ultimately have to resort to some protectionism for critical industries.

>Too many snowflakes who are terrified of facing basic accountability for the consequences of their beliefs and actions.

I think both of our political parties are unwilling to admit fault. Unfortunately, people like you only want to shit on Trump and Republicans.

No doubt this will get several downvotes because HN is in fact overwhelmingly populated by liberals with Trump Derangement Syndrome.

bataowt

8 hours ago

Thank you.

It’s my pet theory that China and friends have been running some serious propaganda in the West which has culminated in this red vs blue vitriol that’s bordering on mindless, thought terminating cliches. I say that because they routinely get away with far worse and very few people speak up against it nevermind do something about it. The air around it is so quiet it’s as if people are siding with them (and perhaps they are).

[nb. The average Chinese person would easily point out the number of Jews as heads of prominent tech companies in the West and not flinch saying it. The average Westerner dare not even think about saying it. That’s how crippled your standing is right now.]

Blaming Trump won’t help rewind the clock, and there’s ultimately very little he’s personally responsible for in the grand scheme of things. This started decades ago and you’re up against a country that will use every dirty trick in the book, because they are playing to win.

First realize how disadvantaged you are at the moment that whatever you do, your country would stand in your way and sabotage you out of petty reasons, against a country that’s turning more and more people into millionaires and proliferating across the globe and who has softly and quietly taken key strategic economic and industrial positions at a global scale. You can blame Trump if it makes you feel better, but it won’t help you win.

Population across the globe may be dwindling, but some people have more to lose than others and still come out on top.

jemmyw

6 hours ago

The global population is not dwindling yet. At the current derivative of birth rate it'll keep keep growing for 50 years. Of course many places will experience a demographic crisis well before the global population falls.

pveierland

12 hours ago

One of the big risks for manufacturers seem to be that EVs are fundamentally more compatible with automated production and allows simplifications to the car stack. It would seem that the costs and risks of the keeping the ICE stack alive will keep increasing over time as it loses relevance to EVs.

general1465

7 hours ago

As somebody who owns an EV, that thing won't catch on (Western or Chinese) unless infrastructure will start being operated by sane people. Currently the "app problem" instead of accepting a debit card on the charger is the biggest pain in the ass followed by unmaintained chargers, because government subsidized building them and not maintaining them. If these two pain points are not fixed, don't expect any kind of boom, more like slow withering out of EVs in western countries because it is constant PITA to use them.

kyriakos

an hour ago

This is a US or local problem primarily. At least where I live there is a law in place requiring public ev chargers to be available with credit card payments and are forbidden from needing users to subscribe.

rcdemski

2 hours ago

I just finished a road trip from Colorado to SoCal by EV and this was the first trip where I didn’t once need an app to start charging. It was a nice change from my last one. Rivian’s network has been amazing now that non Rivian EVs can use it, and Ionna has appeared with delightfully retro futuristic looking equipment that doesn’t even have a backing app - just payment and go.

aggregator-ios

12 hours ago

Unsurprising. GM/Ford will fail once again, along with the BMW/MB/VW and then the government will bail them out again... for the 4th time in 30 years. There is no incentive to be better.

Making sub-$100k EV's and then crying that consumer demand is low doesn't make any sense. Meanwhile, the Chinese and Korean EVs are absolutely eating this market by making sub 35k and 50k EV's respectively. In California, 1/4 new vehicles registered was an EV in 2024. By the end of 2025, it was 1/3.

The rest of the world will continue to embrace EV's, and the western (and Japanese) propaganda machine will do what it always does when the rest of the world does better: xenophobia, racism followed by screaming that EVs are a failure.

dash2

12 hours ago

Could you give some examples of the Western propaganda machine producing xenophobia and racism?

array_key_first

9 hours ago

Claiming keeping China out of our markets is a matter of national security because they are IP thieves and anti-democracy. Which, while might be true to an extent, is not the motivation - the motivation is domestic economic protectionism. You might also just say they make cheap junk unlike Americans.

usui

12 hours ago

It's good you also mentioned "(and Japanese)" regarding the propaganda machine. I don't think it will crash any time soon, but considering how much the economy is driven by the automotive industry, it's scary to see how much the incumbent companies are doing all they can to stifle electric vehicle advances. They aren't just ignoring them, they're doing all they can to spread FUD. To think there was a good start with hybrids too. There's also the ongoing hydrogen fuel attempt which starts to look like a sunk cost fallacy. If nothing changes, the decline is going to be a gradual irreversible ugly one layered on top of the demographic problem.

blell

6 hours ago

It is only hazardous if we can’t get rid of the insane regulations that have been imposed. And I’m pretty sure we will in the next ten years or so.

YesBox

13 hours ago

Every time I think about EVs, I become filled with dread thinking about what will happen if an area loses power for an extended period of time. I used to live in an area that had transformers blow from rain showers.

At least you could hook up a generator to pump gas at a gas station.

:/ Life's about trade offs.

Edit: Whoops.. Im not against EVs to be clear. But from a safety POV, having two different energy sources is safer than having one. Im not sure if you'll understand this if you haven't lived in a very snowy state.

pveierland

12 hours ago

You could also flip that and talk about the risks of when your gasoline supply get shut down due to some event. With an EV stack you can generate your power locally and add resilience that way.

jerkstate

12 hours ago

my area lost power for about 3 days last week and I ran all of my house's critical systems from my EV. it was great - silent, unlike the old generator, and not counting the sunk cost of the car, extremely cheap. Cost maybe $5 in electricity to keep the furnace, refrigerator/freezer, and internet on for 3 days, contrasted with probably $50 in gasoline for a similar amount of time.

If the outage had been longer, I could have made a half-hour trip to an area that had working EV fast chargers and come back with another 5-6 days of power for the house.

3eb7988a1663

12 hours ago

How expensive is the setup to tie in your vehicle into a house grid? Or can it be something as crude as running extension cables to plug into a powerstrip attached to the car?

jerkstate

12 hours ago

I did it cheap - I just ran extension cables from my car (previously from a generator). I have a manual transfer switch at my furnace to safely switch between utility power and extension cable power, and just replugged appliances. I think everything drew on average about 800 watts, up to maybe 1500. I split it between 2 1.8 kW 110v outlets in the car.

Aachen

12 hours ago

That sounds like the extreme version of "but I need a fuel car because I want to drive it to France once a year for holiday". Driving something around all year for a once-a-year event is silly, but this is just insane. In a good life, you don't need this fallback from grid power even once in your lifetime!

At least, not beyond the inconvenience that is having to stay at home like 1 unplanned day per several decades. That's still three and three quarters of a nine of uptime even if you'd get the recent Iberian peninsula event every 10 years, and assumes you emptied the battery coincidentally the day before the outage. If you're not an EMT or power plant technician, you're doing more harm than good by being the person who can drive to work during a power outage and find that you're the only one there and nothing works anyway

rstuart4133

5 hours ago

> That sounds like the extreme version of "but I need a fuel car because I want to drive it to France once a year for holiday".

Having just made the 1,000km trip to the French Alps and back again in a Tesla Y, that's not a valid excuse any more. Back at home in Australia driving 2,200km from Mackay to Melbourne in a EV also a common enough holiday trip.

The 5,000km trip to Perth might be a stretch, but it's considered a major undertaking in a conventional car too. You are crossing some of the most remote places on the planet that has paved roads. The problem isn't charging. It's that you need to carry spares - like drinking water for emergencies, and spare tyres.

It's the tyres that would stop me from doing it in a Tesla Y. The Y doesn't have a place for a spare tyre, which is a disease that seems to afflict many modern cars of all types. It doesn't even come with a jack. Worse it needs special tyres that are hard(ish) to find in a major city, let alone 1000km from anywhere.

Unless grandma lives in a place without electricity, the one issue you won't have in Australia or Europe is charging. EV charging points are everywhere now. Most parking lots have them. I dunno what the situation is in the USA, but if EV charging points are a problem I'd suspect deliberate government interference because in Australia at least every one seems to have been built privately. Unlike Europe Australia does not have much in the way of EV subsidies, yet they are springing up like weeds.

I suspect the reason is location, location, location. Similar to petrol stations, but unlike a petrol station the upfront investment is low, they aren't manned so no wage costs, in a shopping centre they attract customers and they seem to markup the cost by 80..150%. What's not to like? So get in early and get the best spots.

Aachen

3 hours ago

I guess I didn't make it clear that this quoted argument was meant to sound silly. I know you can go on holiday with EVs! My mom was a bit apprehensive about spontaneously needing to find chargers and figure them out, and so I invited her to a weekend trip for just the two of us, one of the goals being to see together how charging works out in different places and countries and how often that ends up being necessary etc. It was no problem at all if you can figure out the different payment methods (most worked with a magic card she got with the car, others wanted paypal via a web portal etc.)

3eb7988a1663

12 hours ago

Considering how expensive cars are, I do find the trip-to-grandma reasoning useful. Most people want a single vehicle that can do everything. Dismissing that with, "Well just drive differently" or "You can do the hassle that is renting a car" is not a compelling sell. What if I want to do my vacation trips during the holidays where rentals are already booked?

I think full EVs are great if the lifestyle allows it, but plug-in hybrids seem a better fit for most people without requiring undue compromise.

Aachen

12 hours ago

What trip to grandma can't you do anymore with an EV?

> What if I want to do my vacation trips during the holidays where rentals are already booked?

The same as you do when any other part is booked out: go elsewhere or do something else. I don't buy a backup train in case the one I want is booked out one of the next ten summers

Consider also the lifestyle change that's "growing older more healthily" by not having a population sit in exhaust fumes for 2x the daily average commute length

Ekaros

6 hours ago

Why there focus on sitting in traffic. Instead of more visionary solutions like banning single family homes and razing them all to ground and replacing them with high rises next to offices supported by forced public transport? Surely that should be the true alternatives for use of ICE and not EVs.

rootusrootus

12 hours ago

We’ve already had some experiences with this in Florida after a hurricane. EVs do quite well, turns out, better in many cases than gas cars. The grid is a very high priority for fixing, more so even than gas supplies.

hypeatei

12 hours ago

The common advice among "preppers" and more anxious individuals is to never let your gas gauge go below half or 1/4 tank. I think people are much more anxious than they realize about running out of gas in a black swan event.

eurleif

12 hours ago

When a hurricane impacted my area last year, I kept seeing Facebook posts for a week or two afterward from people asking where to find gas. Meanwhile, the power never went out, so my EV was able to charge without issue.

beej71

12 hours ago

I worry about that, too, but with my gas car. :)

eldaisfish

12 hours ago

More batteries.

I cannot believe this is a serious question.

A small battery pack can easily run most essential domestic services.

danaris

12 hours ago

Rooftop solar is getting cheaper, easier, more efficient, and more reliable every year.

If you live in an area that is poor enough that this is not an option, it loses power frequently due to weather, and no one in power cares enough to fix it, that genuinely sucks, and I feel for you. But, as sibling comments said, some other poor areas don't get gasoline shipments in a timely manner—being poor and neglected is just always going to suck in various ways, and the solution is not to avoid any technological advancements that remove the crutch that your particular poor and neglected area is using to get through it a little easier, but to find ways to reduce the poverty and neglect.

And, frankly, solar power and electric vehicles are both great tools to help with that, especially when used together.

condensedcrab

14 hours ago

Rather disappointing as an environmentalist. But the established freedoms of the car culture and price sensitivity in NA (probably parts of Europe, idk) hard to overcome — “what if I want to road trip though!”

That being said, I think Ford’s shift to a range extended EV makes sense for the truck space. I’m sure someone has crunched the numbers on emissions but getting more market share on hybrid/plugin/range extended EVs are definitely better then ICE only. Plenty of manufacturers are offering hybrids- however, the government has historically been too heavily lobbied to push for hybrids by default and reduce ICE only uptake with some kind of sin tax.

terribleperson

13 hours ago

Plug-in hybrids also have tax advantages in some jurisdictions.

E.g. in Georgia (US), EV owners have to pay a $234 annual alternative fuel vehicle fee.

Plug in hybrid owners may choose to have a alternative fuel license plate or standard license plate. If you opt for the standard plate, you don't have to pay the alternative fuel vehicle fee.

Aachen

12 hours ago

Wait, you pay extra for driving a cleaner vehicle when you live in that region? I'm not sure if I understand it correctly or if that's the full picture. Do EVs pay less for road taxes, emission fees, or get some different rebate that this fee is meant to balance?

rootusrootus

12 hours ago

It’s an attempt to get revenue that would otherwise be collected as gas tax. In practice it’s usually about twice as much as a gas car would generate in tax proceeds. Even in EV friendly states like the PNW.

Aachen

3 hours ago

Ah, I think I understand the difference: we pay taxes for electricity (it's ~35ct/kWh atm) and so there's plenty of proceeds for electric cars as well. Afaik for you it's normal to pay less than half, but then this flat fee for EV owners seems strange when everyone else (in the world, and those driving combustion vehicles) pays per actual usage

3eb7988a1663

12 hours ago

Is there any advantage for a hybrid car using the alternative fuel license plate?

fencepost

12 hours ago

In some cities with HOV lanes on expressways having an EV (with plates) lets you use those lanes with only one person in the car. How important that is to any given buyer obviously depends on where and when they're driving.

terribleperson

6 hours ago

It used to entitle you to use the HOV lane in Georgia, but it no longer does. You also have to pay an additional fee for it as it's a non-standard plate.

pornel

12 hours ago

I've already been roadtripping across Europe multiple times in an EV that needs 20 minutes to recharge per ~3 hours of driving (e-GMP). To me this is great, and wouldn't be faster in an ICE, since I need the breaks anyway. EV charging is unattended, so it takes less of my time than refuelling. The chargers are already everywhere, even in rural areas and in the freakin' Alps.

I know some people want a pee-in-a-bottle cannonball run, but that doesn't make sense to me. At distances where charging time starts to add up, flying is already much quicker.

ggm

14 hours ago

Battery swap. Great for industry growth, but the manufacturers selling into US and Europe decided not to go there and disputable claims "it can't work" and false applications of Gresham's law are used to explain why.

The Gresham's law thing: money is just a transfer token. Batteries have a use value. The agents who could profit from hoarding good batteries, don't get to achieve the income of renting them.

It's working fine for scooters, and in China for cars and trucks.

Everyone is now betting on solid state getting both range and rapid charge.

tengbretson

12 hours ago

The incentives for such a swapping system are completely busted.

Think of existing swap infrastructure out there, like propane tank swaps. People already use these systems to rinse defective or expired tanks all the time, and that overhead simply gets built into the price.

Now imagine if you could refill a propane tank at home by just plugging it in to your wall. The only reasons to use such a service are now exceptional cases like travel, or to move defective items.

For every new tank introduced to the supply, on average, how many good-for-good swaps will occur before the supplier gets a defective one? Take the cost of a new one and divide it by that average and that is the minimum overhead for a swap.

For batteries, that number is likely in the hundreds of dollars.

wrycoder

11 hours ago

An EV with a degraded battery and miles per charge is still very useful for retired people who are tired of traveling long distance and can plug in at home. There should be a good market for them.

I tend to keep my cars over 200,000 miles. Today's cars last a long time. Still, looking back over the past three year's expenses between 150,000 and 200,000 miles, almost all of them relate to engine peripherals - like a new exhaust system, work on emission controls, and a new gas tank, which an EV doesn't have - or brakes, which on an EV last much longer.

UniverseHacker

13 hours ago

Battery swap would just about eliminate planned obsolescence in cars- EVs should last just about forever if the batteries aren’t impossible to replace. The only real wear items in an EV drivetrain are a few cheap bearings that already will probably last a million miles. This would devastate the auto industry.

jmward01

13 hours ago

My two biggest concerns buying a used EV: - privacy (my #1 concern for any vehicle right now) - how long the used battery will last

I can only hope we solve batteries making EVs throw-away vehicles either with quick battery swaps or with batteries that truly last a lifetime.

rootusrootus

12 hours ago

Most EVs can have the battery swapped in less time than it takes to drop in a new engine. The real issue IMO is reliable availability of refurb batteries at a reasonable price, and reliability at least on par with an engine.

dboreham

12 hours ago

Battery life isn't a concern with current EVs.

PlunderBunny

12 hours ago

What about the interior? There’s no one thing you can point to in a car interior and say “that’s no good after X years” but we’ve all seen the interior of old cars. The batteries in modern EVs will last the lifetime of the vehicle [0] but what factor(s) determine that lifetime are unknown I think.

0. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/07/heres-one-way-we-know-t...

UniverseHacker

10 hours ago

You can build a car interior that pretty much lasts forever, but it’s not cheap. There’s plenty of 60s and 70s Mercedes around with MBtex and zebra wood interiors that still look pretty much new after 6 decades of regular use. It’s eerie how good those old Mercedes interiors are, I’ve seen cars in the junkyard that were almost completely crumbled to rust powder, but the interior still was flawless. A good upholstery shop can also rebuild a car interior.

ehnto

12 hours ago

I'm not sure that tracks with my experience, plenty of 20-30 year old cars still running around. The people upgrading every few years do it for financial or image reasons rather than because the car stopped working.

Warranty anxiety is probably a big factor too, which could be legislated. Imagine how reliable cars would be if a 30 year warranty on drivetrain components was mandatory.

UniverseHacker

10 hours ago

A quality car will last just about forever if you take care of it, Irv Gordon put 3.2 million miles on his 1966 Volvo and it was still in good shape at the end. But most people don’t maintain a car like that, however an EV has the potential to last like that with almost no maintenance.

mattmaroon

12 hours ago

I don’t think it’s planned (car companies have been competing heavily on lifespan for decades with results) but battery lifetimes seem to already be such that it can last basically forever.

But most people replace their ICE looong before the battery dies. I’d assume the same would happen for EVs too.

norir

12 hours ago

That sounds great. We can focus on planning the obsolescence of the auto industry rather than having the industry continue to extract rents on society. Of course this will be a political nightmare, but it does seem like truly the sooner the better.

lisbbb

12 hours ago

You are not allowed to decide how everyone else should live. But just for the sake of argument, take a trip to Montana and get back to me on how well universal EVs would work in much of the US. They're fine for urban and suburban areas. They aren't so great for agricultural work, and certainly not great for people who live in places you probably haven't visited. I don't even think EVs are a solution for people in Nebraska, let alone places where the weather gets really extreme.

condensedcrab

an hour ago

I think that’s where a range extended EV makes plenty of sense, and why I don’t think it needs to be a blanket ban on ICE for pure EV only.

user

12 hours ago

[deleted]

api

12 hours ago

Our family has EVs and rents a gas car for the occasional road trip. We did the math and it’s cheaper than buying and owning and doing the maintenance on a gas car.

If we did long road trips a lot we’d probably get rid of one EV and get an older gas car for that. It wouldn’t be the daily driver.

denimnerd42

12 hours ago

I bought an EV. it's fun to drive and it's affordable to recharge. However, I wouldn't buy another anytime soon. The depreciation is horrible. They are basically destined for a landfill once they no longer work. I can go to a junk yard and pull an engine for my Toyota tomorrow if I need to.

sagarm

12 hours ago

Massive depreciation means cheap used EVs. I don't see the issue.

Luxury ICE vehicles also depreciate rapidly, and yet they're quite popular. Plus EVs are likely to have longer usable lifetimes -- though with different issues -- than gas cars.

denimnerd42

12 hours ago

Luxury vehicles I've never understood, especially the non Lexus variety. so don't expect me to explain that.

Due to all the people in my fmaily I have 4 cars so I wouldn't go from 1 EV to 2. If the current EV gets destroyed I do think that used EVs are the right way to go and would buy a used one for sure.

They do still feel like throwaway cars. I'm not sure how you can argue they will have a longer lifetime. If the battery dies surely no one is replacing that at cost? It's more than the car is worth. At least with an ICE each part can be replaced in your driveway with a few hundred in tools and the part probably exists locally used or new.

bestouff

9 hours ago

I bought 1 used EV a few years ago. That thing seems like it won't age, everything works like day 1. My next car will be an EV, for sure.

wakawaka28

9 hours ago

Have you ever heard, "You get what you pay for?" If used EVs were worth a damn, they would drive down the prices of petrol vehicles too.

>Plus EVs are likely to have longer usable lifetimes -- though with different issues -- than gas cars.

You need to do some basic research, friend. EV batteries are not designed to be replaced at any sane price. They are built even more crappy than late model petrol vehicles. EVs depreciate rapidly because their useful life is short and problems are many. A 10 year old Honda Civic with a gas engine likely has another 10 or 20 years of life left.

An EV probably has a max life of about 15 years without a MAJOR overhaul which is likely not even doable for less than the price of a new EV, if you can even find someone willing to do it. Battery integrity is very hard to determine from sensors and external examination. If a cell has been damaged, it can start an inextinguishable fire which could take out a whole garage. These factors further hurt the resale value.

EVs were popular before petrol engines were perfected. But those EVs had swappable and relatively stable batteries and the cars did not have to conform to modern standards for acceleration, crash safety, and range.

anonym29

12 hours ago

Unpopular idea: the personal automobile segment will shrink so rapidly when autonomous, ubiquitous, low-cost EV robotaxis reach widespread proliferation, that many of the existing automotive manufacturers today will become increasingly commercially non-viable and wind down operations anyway, only further accelerating a trend that has already begun due to the rampant, multifaceted rise in total vehicle ownership costs far above CPI inflation.

Environmentalists should be happy about this either way. A fleet of high utilization autonomous vehicles will increase utilization rates of each automobile that is still on the road substantially, serving more people with fewer raw materials. Not to mention that as of right now, all of the leading contenders for commercially viable robotaxi fleets are on EV platforms anyway.

It's not that, by and large, over a longer time horizon, new gasoline cars are going to replace these EVs disappearing from the consumer-owned automobile segment so much as EV robotaxis will be gradually replacing almost all consumer-owned vehicles. Enthusiasts will still have their track toys, but as an economic mode of transportation, the personally owned automobile is going the way of the horse and buggy.

8note

12 hours ago

one step further - the overall market for vehicle transport will go down as cities smarten up and build in ways they can afford, rather than scaling on bigger roads that go further away and require tons of infrastructure to service.

the bigger replacement will still be walking and scooter-like EVs that are cheaper for everyone

ViewTrick1002

4 hours ago

> A fleet of high utilization autonomous vehicles will increase utilization rates of each automobile that is still on the road substantially, serving more people with fewer raw materials. Not to mention that as of right now, all of the leading contenders for commercially viable robotaxi fleets are on EV platforms anyway.

I think people overestimate the difference due to the amount of dead-heading needed.

ksynwa

12 hours ago

It will shrink even further when everyone has their own cheap personal teleportation device

myko

12 hours ago

It would be nice if the cars from China could be purchased in the US

api

12 hours ago

It would be the end of the US auto industry. Of course they kind of deserve it. The Japanese also beat them to a pulp for much the same reason: refusal to offer practical affordable efficient vehicles to the silent majority who just want a fucking car.