The author is reasoning through analogies, which can sometimes be helpful, but it's not applicable in this case. This is a thought-provoking post, but unlikely to be an accurate map of the future. I can use the same analogies to come to entirely different conclusions about the nature of knowledge work in 10-20 years. I have fallen for this trap myself: trying to reason about AI through the lens of the smartphone revolution, or the cloud era, etc. I don't think it fully holds up. Sometimes there are entirely new paradigms that create new worlds, and we have to navigate through the fog to get to a more intelligible side.