Sohcahtoa82
4 hours ago
A friend of mine posed a question...
What happens if in a couple years from now, NVIDIA decides that the opportunity cost of manufacturing gaming GPUs instead of data center GPUs becomes so high that they decide to step out of the gaming hardware business altogether, what happens to PC gaming?
NVIDIA and AMD both use TSMC to manufacture the GPUs, so if NVIDIA made that decision, presumably, AMD would do so as well. That basically leaves Intel, but their GPUs are lackluster and the drivers are awful.
Gaming PCs have become ludicrously expensive. Even mid-grade builds are $2,000. You can't really build a decent gaming PC for under $1,500 if you want to play the latest AAA games.
alpineman
5 minutes ago
Maybe that's their plan. They launched the NVIDIA GeForce now cloud on-demand service, after all.
dixie_land
3 hours ago
I'm a gamer too and I worry that another likely scenario is all gaming moves to the cloud streaming model for maximum rent seeking :(
trashface
3 hours ago
Game devs will have to optimize their code more, like in the old days. But GPUs are really powerful nowadays, so even scaled back GPUs are still really strong.
I don't expect them to go away entirely, if AMD or NVIDIA step back from it, there is still a market there, someone will fill it. Really doubt AMD would do that anyway as they don't have all the AI related sales to replacing gaming.
Sohcahtoa82
3 hours ago
> there is still a market there, someone will fill it.
How? The cost to design a GPU from scratch is astronomical. Even if a bunch of top brass engineers from NVIDIA left the company to start their own, I'd be surprised if trying to apply as much of their knowledge as possible didn't result in patent violations.
Even ignoring the design part, you have to deal with actual manufacturing. TSMC is ostensibly the only guys in town that could make it, but their fabs are already occupied by NVIDIA's orders. Building your own fab is billions of dollars and several years.
ElevenLathe
2 hours ago
I think we've topped out on how good GPUs realistically need to be. The games industry is embroiled in layoffs. AAA games as we knew them are ending because they're just not compatible with our current macroeconomic situation. My current GPU is an RX590 (released in 2018, I bought it new in 2019) and I have no plans to upgrade any time soon.
Realistically, I think that if AMD and NVIDIA both abandon the gaming market entirely (unlikely, IMO) then Intel or some Chinese no-name brand will pick up the slack. Video cards for gaming don't need to be bleeding edge any more. 99.999% of experiences gamedevs want to create don't require that horsepower, and consumers can't afford it anyway (at least not when effectively bidding for fab capacity against billionaires who are convinced they can be immortal Gods if they win the auction). Most likely, no-name chips from non-frontier fabs (or by Chinese fabs trying to claw their way upmarket) will be badge-engineered as AMD/Nvidia/Intel.
Alternatively, we have WW3 and either advanced, PC-gaming civilization ends completely, or we at least have to sacrifice consumer goods like video cards for the duration.
jerlam
2 hours ago
There isn't as much money as you think in AAA games, especially since most games are multi-platform. Those AAA PC games also must run on Playstation or XBox, and people can't upgrade those consoles. The PS5 is five years old already. Are there any popular games with a system requirement greater than a 2060?
Having the latest gaming PC is more of a hobby than a requirement.
porridgeraisin
3 hours ago
I have quite some hope that the steam machine will fill all the gaps. Yes, they are hit by the cost increase as well, but the scale is completely different when you compare it to the latest beefy nvidia GPU. It has a good chance.
2OEH8eoCRo0
3 hours ago
I remember the 90s when a normal PC was $3,000 or more.
Sohcahtoa82
3 hours ago
In the mid 90s, sure, but prices were coming down fast.
There was a sweet spot in ~1999 where you could buy an A-Bit BH6 motherboard, 300 Mhz Celeron A (overclocked to 450 Mhz), 3dfx Banshee, and all the other components to make a PC for only ~$500 and have a respectable gaming machine.