How the US is preparing a Caribbean staging ground near Venezuela

83 pointsposted 15 hours ago
by giuliomagnifico

80 Comments

pythonic_hell

14 hours ago

Nothing good can come from this. Illegal drug production exploded after the 2nd gulf war and invasion of Afghanistan.

This is going to be a repeat of this if the Americans decides to invade Venezuela.

cjbgkagh

14 hours ago

Foreign wars are used to launder money not stop drugs, Opium production in Afghanistan increased during US occupation, if the actual goal was to stop drug production it would be more effective to put the Taliban in charge of Venezuela.

I see this conflict as the impotent rage of a dying empire.

The invasion of Panama to overthrow a CIA backed dictatorship was needlessly over the top because of concerns that the US had lost its mojo after Vietnam and was seen as a chance to test out a bunch of Reagan's new weapons.

dingaling

5 hours ago

> was seen as a chance to test out a bunch of Reagan's new weapons.

The F-117, the wonder-weapon of Panama, was funded by the Carter Administration.

As was the B-2.

woleium

10 hours ago

Opium production in Afghanistan more closely tracked the cost of solar to pump water up the hill to grow poppies than any us influence

trueismywork

14 hours ago

They don't want to stop drugs. They just want to be the ones to pocket the profit

portaouflop

14 hours ago

No idea why you are getting downvoted; this is true.

foofoo12

13 hours ago

It's not about the drugs. It's the oil they're after.

treetalker

13 hours ago

Don't forget the proof that the Epstein Files are a hoax! We know it's in Venezuela … must be around here somewhere …

jack_tripper

14 hours ago

>Nothing good can come from this.

Military industrial complex gets bored quickly.

> Illegal drug production exploded after the 2nd gulf war and invasion of Afghanistan.

Glowies need money too.

throw0101a

11 hours ago

> Military industrial complex gets bored quickly.

Eisenhower coined that term. During the Korean War, defence spending was 12% of GDP; in the 1970s during the Cold War, it was 8%. It is currently about 3.5% of GDP:

* https://old.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/1o919po/why_i...

It's not a small amount, being the largest discretionary line programs in the federal budget, but it's no where near what it once was.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget#/...

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

And it should be noted that keeping that industry (and manufacturing in general) alive is important:

> Democratic countries’ economies are mainly set up as free market economies with redistribution, because this is what maximizes living standards in peacetime. In a free market economy, if a foreign country wants to sell you cheap cars, you let them do it, and you allocate your own productive resources to something more profitable instead. If China is willing to sell you brand-new electric vehicles for $10,000, why should you turn them down? Just make B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps, sell them for a high profit margin, and drive a Chinese car.

> Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself.

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now

ajross

14 hours ago

> Military industrial complex

That really seems just wrong. The established interests here haven't been pushing for a Venezuela action at all. They want to sell arms (via western assistance) to Ukraine, which is much more lucrative and clearly something the Trump adminstration has stymied at all opportunities.

If you have to push for a Capitalist String Pulling Conspiracy angle here (which I don't buy either) it makes much more sense to view this as an oil industry play. American-driven regime change in Venezuela opens up its state-owned petroleum industry to American petrochemical interests.

But no, 99% of of this is simple pique and bullying. Maduro is a loudmouth antiamerican and weak, Trump is a bully. This is just what bullies do. Pushing around antisocial nerds in the schoolyard is how bullies demonstrate authority to their base.

pydry

14 hours ago

This upcoming war has absolutely nothing to do with drugs whatsoever, just like the 2003 invasion of Iraq had absolutely nothing to do with WMDs whatsoever.

somenameforme

10 hours ago

I rather appreciate that they're not even bothering to try to make some big lie of it. The drug stuff is the most half-hearted messaging I have ever seen. Rare is going to be the person who truly believes we're invading a country, which has the largest oil reserves on the planet, to stop drug smuggling.

I think it's difficult for people to understand the war machine when the messaging is effective. When we make it reasonably clear what's happening, you have a more informed electorate. And I think that's a very good thing.

themgt

13 hours ago

Venezuela is a narco dictatorship failed state, but its true crimes are violations of the Monroe Doctrine. America's hegemony in Europe, Asia and the Middle East is in serious decline, so it's become all the more important to flex muscle in our hemisphere and make an example out of someone. Pour encourager les autres. Or, from the horse's mouth:

Over the past decade, 12 of China’s 17 loans to Venezuela have been specific to the energy sector—a total of $55 billion. China’s most significant commitment to Venezuela’s oil sector was its investment in the Orinoco Belt, one of the world’s richest oil areas, which produces extra heavy crude oil and sits across central Venezuela. In 2010, China’s national oil company signed a 25-year land grant for a 40 percent investment in one portion of the Orinoco Belt. The energy industry is at the heart of Venezuela—economically, politically, and socially. Oil accounts for 95 percent of the country’s exports and provides the cash to import everything else. Therefore, China’s focus on the energy sector could be viewed as a “power play” to gain authority over the political and social structures of Venezuela, as well as its extensive oil reserves.

A lack of basing infrastructure also creates opportunities for adversaries to gather intelligence on U.S. movements. Several of the ships currently deployed to the Caribbean on counternarcotics missions called into ports where China exercises influence. The Arleigh Burke–class destroyer USS Sampson docked at Manzanillo, Mexico, in July, where Hong Kong–based conglomerate CK Hutchison operates a terminal. More recently, the USS Lake Erie, a guided missile cruiser, docked at Hutchison-operated Port of Balboa in Panama before transiting the Panama Canal on its way from the Pacific to the Caribbean theater. Naval port calls represent potential intelligence vulnerabilities where China can gather data on U.S. standard operating procedures and patterns of life that could be applicable to the Indo-Pacific.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/when-investment-hurts-chinese-...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalation-against-maduro-regi...

hermannj314

13 hours ago

In HOI4, you got to level up your troops and generals with amphibious assault experience with a minor nation to prepare for the war with the major nation down the road.

I like to think everything is about prepping for what happens when China takes its rightful place in the sun.

jalapenos

14 hours ago

If you look at this article with a squint - it seems to be a publicized threat from the US government to the Maduro regime, loosely veiled as an independent news article?

Thorrez

14 hours ago

The article is the threat? Or the actual buildup of military assets?

azernik

13 hours ago

The leaks that led to the article

portaouflop

14 hours ago

Idk the actions the US takes in the Caribbean are the threat and Reuters is reporting on those actions?

It would be weirder imo if they didn’t write about it and afaict they are just looking at publicly available OS data.

jalapenos

13 hours ago

Just the way the article's formulated, e.g. mixing in a reference to how Maduro's generals will be scared by this - how do they know that?

Looks more like "hey generals & Maduro, here's what's coming for you if you don't bend to us"

exasperaited

14 hours ago

Daddy wants a fight to prove he's a man and make everyone admire and adore him like he deserves to be admired and adored, so he's picking on the guy everyone wants gone.

If you understand what is going on in terms of Trump's very personal, broken malignant psychology and his very literal tendency to agree with the last person who spoke to him, you can see very old-fashioned US business interests have persuaded him to gin up an old, old fight.

(Always interesting to think that Trump may be projecting his own faults onto Maduro; every accusation a confession)

The last time this happened, Hugo Chavez very nearly had a much shorter trip in a helicopter than was scheduled, and the US ambassador rushed down from the embassy uncomfortably too early to congratulate the new guy only to find that the new guy was still the old guy. Almost as if they were expecting something to happen that didn't.

(Don't read this as a suggestion that I think Maduro is legitimate; I don't.)

motbus3

14 hours ago

Why is not NATO involved in none of this? This seems quite weird stretch to not have any international laws being broken

riffraff

14 hours ago

NATO is a defensive alliance, why should it be involved in this?

Also, any sane government would be against starting a war against Venezuela for no reason.

(But I don't think there's gonna be a war)

azernik

13 hours ago

NATO only guarantees the mutual defense of its neighbors.

I presume you mean the UN? They can only actually do anything about international law violations if no permanent UNSC member vetoes it. The US is a permanent member, so...

apexalpha

12 hours ago

NATO has a clause that says it does not fuck with anything happening in the southern hemisphere. This was done at the request of the US who did not want to defend European colonies.

mmooss

3 hours ago

What clause, if you know?

Vasbarlog

13 hours ago

Of course there are international laws being broken. But as always, the laws apply to all except the US.

_heimdall

13 hours ago

You honestly think the US is the only country violating international law without being held to account?

lotsofpulp

14 hours ago

Venezuela is not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

jimmis

14 hours ago

I'm sure the Trump supporters who voted for him to "end all wars" are going to be strongly opposed to this.

xboxnolifes

30 minutes ago

Gotta start the war to end all wars.

le-mark

14 hours ago

Can anyone give an overview of what has happened in Venezuela since Maduro took over and what the beef is between him and Trump? Looks like US going to start exporting Freedom again..

dwood_dev

14 hours ago

Let me preface this one with the statement that I am completely against regime change wars.

This is one scenario where it might actually have a positive outcome. Maduro looks to have barely won his reelection in 2018. The 2024 election he lost, badly. All the individual precinct results had him at 30-40%. Conveniently, the central election database was "hacked" and they lost all the final numbers. But not to worry, Maduro definitely won!

Was the CIA/USAID involved? Almost certainly, and in 2018 it was barely hidden. The U.S. has been meddling in Venezuela long before Chavez came to power, and has not helped the situation in any way.

Even given all that, the Venezuelan people want Maduro gone. The help of the U.S. to remove the regime might actually have a positive end. This isn't like other countries where the U.S. foisted democracy upon a population that had never experienced it. Venezuela has been imploding, for years. Nearly 8 million people have left in the last decade. The diaspora represents nearly 1/4 of all Venezuelans.

foogazi

8 hours ago

> This is one scenario where it might actually have a positive outcome.

LOL - this is how they always do it

azernik

13 hours ago

Why do you think USAID of all groups was involved in election meddling? Their involvement in US foreign policy is usually along the lines of PR and sometimes being used as cover.

apexalpha

12 hours ago

Would you approve of unilateral military action against the US, including extrajudicial murders by Venezuelan armed forces off the coast of California, if Trump fucks with the next election?

joyeuse6701

14 hours ago

NYTimes had a decent daily podcast episode recently that covered opposing strategies the administration had towards Venezuela. The hawks being led by Rubio.

csomar

14 hours ago

Venezuela exports most of its oil to China. Taking control of Venezuela strengthen the US energy system and remove one important supplier for China.

IAmGraydon

11 hours ago

Only 4% of China’s oil imports come from Venezuela, and most of it is resold to other nations. It isn’t significant.

thrance

14 hours ago

As history has shown, America is perfectly fine with dictatorships in South America, they've even installed several of them, like Pinochet's.

Maduro is the wrong kind of South American dictator, i.e. one that doesn't bend the knee to American interests. Trump threatening to overthrow him and put a nationalist puppet that will sell out to America is not unusual for a US president.

To be clear, I am not defending Maduro. Everyone sucks here, but let's not be fooled, this will not improve Venezuelans lives. Just look at what happened to Chile and the others.

mmooss

3 hours ago

That was decades ago, during the Cold War when the US thought right-wing dictators were more stable partners against the Soviet Union. Since then, almost all of the Americas south of the US became democracies.

diego_moita

14 hours ago

> Can anyone give an overview of what has happened in Venezuela since Maduro took over

Venezuela became more authoritarian and poorer. The oil industry collapsed because of mismanagement and the production of drugs rose. Venezuelans fled to Colombia, Brazil, the U.S., everywhere. The usual stuff for 3rd World dictatorships.

> what the beef is between him and Trump?

The same beef Trump has with everyone that he can blame for anything. Trump just wants a scapegoat for his own incompetence, to blame someone else. He thrives on confrontation. That's why he sends troops to Chicago and L.A. and battleships to the Caribean.

pydry

14 hours ago

The world is filled with poor, authoritarian countries. That has nothing to do with why the US would send a carrier group their way.

This is about empire and oil.

Venezuela could be an identical country in every respect and if Maduro was a puppet of the United States sitting on the world's largest oil reserves instead of an opponent the New York Times would be writing stories about how they're reforming and improving.

exasperaited

13 hours ago

Maduro manipulated and arguably stole an election in 2019 rather than give up power to interests who the US prefers.

I mean, this time round: the man is unequivocally not good. No one thinks Maduro's regime is legitimate — there's pretty broad consensus in North and South America. Internationally he has less support than Hugo Chavez had, because he has no legitimacy at home.

But the reality is still the same: old-fashioned interests in the USA want much more control over what happens in Venezuela, what Venezuela sells to and to whom.

Trump, spurned for admiration and a Nobel peace prize, wants a war presidency now, because that's an easier source of narcissistic supply.

(And also as he has mused in the past, perhaps a source of "wartime powers", which may most simply explain why he's renamed the DoD to the Department of War: it's all part of the narrative he is building for himself and his supporters.)

He knows nobody is going to have a credible argument that Maduro is legitimate but we're back in the second gulf war territory: the "why now" of it.

He is picking a fight and waiting for them to lash out.

eagerpace

14 hours ago

You seem to have formed an opinion without an understand of what has happened in Venezuela. I suggest you look up the history of the recent 2025 Noble Peace Prize winner and let her explain to you what has gone on in the country over the last 20 years.

nielsbot

13 hours ago

summarize? or do you have a preferred source?

sam_goody

14 hours ago

1. Deaths by overdose, especially of Fentanyl is through the roof (it has surpassed road accidents, heart attacks, etc.)

2. We have got to do something

3. This is something

4. The president has something to offer as a solution. For everything. (It is unusual to have a president who is so willing to try to solve everything.)

5. No one commenting in the news has enough info of the plan (or of the future) to offer a useful appraisal of this particular something.

Whether or not this something is actually a useful and good thing [and whether or not it will lead to other good things, and if those other things will be good...] will definitely be biased by your view of the administration, your policy towards war, and you risk tolerance.

As someone who has lost family members to Fentanyl, I at least recognize my bias :/

gausswho

14 hours ago

I am sorry to hear you lost someone to Fentanyl. It really is wreaking havoc upon American society.

In the majority of cases (not to assume the one you experienced) this is but a new variant of 'slow suicide', alongside excessive drinking, gambling, various forms of risk seeking.

It's not enough for me to agree that making a new Vietnan is 'something we've got to do'. The scars of America's war adventures are widely visible and part of the reason we uniquely suffer from these slow suicides.

Blowing up other citizens is easy (at first). Not unlike the addicts this purports to protect, this administration thinks this one quick fix they don't want you to know about will cure our ails. Unfortunately the something we can do (must do) is hard. It means addressing why American society is increasingly disenfranchised, lonely, and unhappy.

Vasbarlog

14 hours ago

You realise that killing people without even identifying them first, and even going as far as invading a foreign country is not a solution in any shape or form. It’s not a ”something”.

If the market for fentanyl is there, the drug will come. And one of the reasons the market became so big because of all the legal opioid drugs being so broadly prescribed.

JKCalhoun

14 hours ago

"3. This is something"

We don't even know what "this" even is.

There are no receipts: no narco captures, no confiscated drug hauls.

Spooky23

14 hours ago

It’s an opportunity to find out which military officers are good soldiers vs. good men.

Thorrez

14 hours ago

>Since early September, the United States has carried out at least 14 strikes against alleged drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing 61 people.

forgotoldacc

14 hours ago

Seems like the problem was the US medical industry getting everyone hooked on opiates. The US even prescribes fentanyl for injuries, a temporary problem, and gets people addicted to the strongest stuff in the world for life.

But maybe the hospitals and American drug corps are all covert Venezuelan operations. Probably not, though. This makes as much sense as invading Iraq for a terrorist attack carried out by a rich Saudi Arabian family.

You thinking killing some random people thousands of miles away is some sort of step in the right direction is honestly just sad. Imagine Botswana having a problem with lion attacks and their president kills your family on the other side of the earth because the people of Botswana want the president to do something, and killing someone, doesn't matter where, is progress towards a solution. I'm an American, but it's stuff like this that makes me realize that hundreds of years from now, people will hold the US's government and its people in the same regard as King Leopold and colonial Belgians.

mothballed

14 hours ago

I only see two practical answers to the fentanyl crisis. Legalize it, or total war against the suppliers.

Which one you pick will largely come down to personal morals or ethics.

The addictive properties of the drug and profits seem to make the responses of more mellow legal incentives -- inelastic. The addict does not give a shit he may go to jail. The high-level supplier does not care he might be risking life, when he is making a gazillion dollars and plans to go out shooting anyway. The low level suppliers, well they fall under the same problem as the 'addict' bucket because you can get as many as you need from that one, no matter the consequences.

cjbgkagh

14 hours ago

A 100% on the total war must also go after users not just suppliers. Otherwise you’re just making the market more profitable for the remaining suppliers. It’s really hard to stop things that are immensely profitable.

gamerDude

14 hours ago

Legalizing it is also a total war against the suppliers in most cases (just economically instead of with guns). By legalizing, you usually replace the current suppliers with ones you like.

orwin

13 hours ago

No one thinks cartels use fishing boats to transport drugs, especially launching from Venezuela. Venezuela itself only have minor cartels. Target Zodiacs from DR, Jamaica, Haiti or Sinaloa, you'll get a better ROI.

Venezuela network traffic Venezuelian first (some of which you probably killed, not unexpected from a bloodthirsty country, but still), gold second, and drugs a far away third.

Killing gold traffickers probably help Brazil and France, while most Venezuelian drug is probably still headed to Europe through Dutch vessels.

password54321

14 hours ago

1. We must do something! (moral panic)

2. Does something

3. Un(intended) consequences of doing something (problem is now worse or different)

4. Back to number 1

rubyfan

14 hours ago

Is it possible that this something isn’t even about drugs? The administration has signaled aggression and potential military action in the Western hemisphere since I think before the term even started. It almost feels indiscriminate at this point since it started with friends and allies, and now moves to a focus with a more plausible cover of legitimacy.

mmooss

2 hours ago

> 2. We have got to do something

That's a mistake. We need to do something with good results. Doing something with bad results is worse than doing nothing.

> Whether or not this something is actually a useful and good thing [and whether or not it will lead to other good things, and if those other things will be good...] will definitely be biased by your view of the administration, your policy towards war, and you risk tolerance.

You're accusing random people of bias - you don't even know who they are. It's a way to shut down discussion and reason.

Whether or not it's good and useful doesn't depend on bias, but on reality. We can talk about reality here, without shutting each other down.

From what I understand, fentanyl doesn't come by boat, and few drugs do.

> 5. No one commenting in the news has enough info of the plan (or of the future) to offer a useful appraisal of this particular something.

If that's true, it's a major problem in democracy, where the people have sovereignty. Their elected representatives in Congress decide on wars, not the White House.

mrbombastic

14 hours ago

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-Intern...

The state dept report from 2025 found that fentanyl basically only comes to the US through Mexico and Venezuela is not a major player.

I find your point 5 to be particularly anti-democratic to be honest, we don’t know because Trump doesn’t think us nor Congress need to know beyond some tweets on Truth Social.

I am sorry for your loss, I have some friends who passed the same way, and it is horrible.

JackC

14 hours ago

> The president has something to offer as a solution. For everything.

Unfortunately it is not a coincidence that the solution to all problems is always (a) make a loud noise (b) take your stuff (c) take away your ability to object to taking your stuff. Amoral sadistic narcissist gonna amoral sadistic narcissist. If you think you don't have enough information to predict how that's going to play out as far as family members you care about, ok.

lawn

14 hours ago

> This is something

I'm sorry that you're being swayed by propaganda as this isn't solving anything and will most likely make it worse.

apexalpha

12 hours ago

>2. We have got to do something

>3. This is something

Killing random people extrajudicially is not "doing something".

You could use your argument to justify the Holocaust...

vel0city

13 hours ago

This has practically nothing to do with fentanyl. Practically none of the US supply of fentanyl comes from Venezuela. Other drugs, sure. Not really fentanyl.

If the Cheeto in Chief declared war on salad forks, all salad forks are now illegal in the US, death penalty for all those trafficking in salad forks, it'll help stop fentanyl trust me, would you also be for it? After all, it's doing something, and we need to do something. Or would you see it as something unrelated and would make no impact while making most people less safe?

> No one commenting in the news has enough info of the plan (or of the future) to offer a useful appraisal of this particular something.

Do you not find that incredibly troubling though? That the US government is gearing up to go to war against a country and yet the populace isn't being read in on the slightest in whatever evidence they may have that these boats they're bombing are actually drug boats or that Venezuela actually is a primary source for fentanyl or whatever? Isn't that an immensely troubling thing that we should push back on until they actually tell us good reasons to go to war?

nielsbot

13 hours ago

you’re misinformed. this is not about fentanyl. venezuela didn’t export that.

mkoubaa

14 hours ago

Methinks the war in Ukraine must be nearing its end and the arms deals must go on.

howmayiannoyyou

13 hours ago

Venezuela:

- Demonstrable ties with US adversaries Hezbollah and Iran.

- Close ties with US adversary Russia.

- Close ties with US adversary China.

- Indisputable drug production and transit.

- Threatened neighboring Guyana and previously Columbia.

- Rigged at least one and likely two elections.

- Ruined its economy for most of its citizens.

- Strategically aided illegal immigration of criminals into US.

No responsible government would permit a country this hostile to US interests to persist. This build up is part of a high stakes negotiation to peacefully change regimes in VZ. If Maduro rejects it, he and his cronies will be forcibly removed.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

leosanchez

13 hours ago

Most of the points you listed can also be attributed to Pakistan, a US ally.

blargthorwars

13 hours ago

Just because we're warmongers doesn't mean the dictators in VZ are good people.

They're shipping poison that kills our people to our country, so I'm ok with them getting what they deserve.

mmooss

2 hours ago

Random people in boats are getting killed; the dictators are fine. And who decides who is guilty and what they deserve? A single person? That's against freedom, democracy, and everything the US stands for.

> They're shipping poison that kills our people to our country

Drugs transit many countries; can we arbitrarily convict and kill everyone connected to those countries?

Most of the people involved are Americans, in the US.

fakedang

12 hours ago

The more I read into this, the more I'm inclined to support the American stance, as long as it's a quick and dirty operation as the admin states. If the allegations are true (highly likely) that Maduro heads the Cartel of the Suns, then he is directly complicit in the overdose crisis.

mmooss

2 hours ago

> If the allegations are true (highly likely) that Maduro heads the Cartel of the Suns

I've read a lot about it but don't know: what is the Cartel of the Suns? And what allegations by who, with what evidence?

JKCalhoun

12 hours ago

You need warships for one guy?

fakedang

11 hours ago

Are the warships actively engaging the Venezuela? Didn't you bother to think that this might have been some form of posturing still?

IAmGraydon

11 hours ago

Except fentanyl is not what’s being shipped through Venezuela (or any opioids). It’s cocaine. Fentanyl in the US almost entirely originates from Mexico. China is involved in a more indirect way because they ship precursor chemicals to Mexican labs.

With all due respect, how did you come to the conclusion you did without even 1 minute of research to verify that your beliefs were actually correct?

fakedang

11 hours ago

So fent is the only narcotic entering into the US? And it's alright for them to ship whatever because it's not fent or an opioid?

Qem

14 hours ago

Making a Vietnam for America Again